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But I don't see how Apple will be unable to deliver the exact number of units reserved to each store. I mean, Apple knows how many units they can produce by April 3
They know how many can potentially be produced, but have no way of knowing how many will actually be produced and delivered. Consider some numbers for illustration:

500,000 planned for manufacture by delivery cutoff.
250,000 online preorders
50,000 for retail channel availability
200,000 available for reservation

Now, the reservation system was left open US-wide, on all models, and shut down all at once. Apple then has to go through the reservations, filtering for duplicates, and tabulating how many of each configuration were ordered for each store. Maybe they cut off a little too late and there are 201,000 reservations.

Some stores might have more reservations than can physically be accommodated, either by the store or by the delivery schedule. One configuration that was produced at a lower number might have been reserved more times than they can supply. There might have been a yield problem and only 498,000 were built in time, and then there might be a delivery issue such that only 497,000 make it to the stores on 4/3.

Hopefully no-shows or pulling stock from the walk-in line will cover that hypothetical gap in such a situation, but if they don't, there are going to be angry people, and there's not much that can be done about that. Sold out is sold out, and no one with a reservation paid for any binding promise.
All they have to do is to keep an eye on the number of preorders+reservations, and stop taking reservations (and change the shipping date on the preorders) once they hit that predetermined number.
Easier said than done, since all configurations and all stores closed at the same time, which suggests that they didn't set predetermined numbers on a granular level. They might know the overall limit and shut down when the counts got close to that, but the website vanished in the early morning exactly two weeks after the reservation period opened, which might mean it was always meant to be open for two weeks and they're just going to try to hit that number in manufacturing.

Regardless, now the work begins of adjusting the final factory manufacturing orders of each configuration and the store delivery logistics.
Which is exactly what I assume has happened earlier today, to guarantee that a store with 700 reservations will in fact receive aat least 700 units.
They'll probably be able to do it, but they can't and won't guarantee it. There are a thousand things that can go wrong, and any last minute yield problems could cause a slight shortage in specific models or across the line if they haven't left themselves tons of padding (and Apple usually doesn't), and any delivery or store problems might cause localized shortages. It's very difficult to pull something like this off flawlessly, and although Apple usually does a pretty good job, there are always upset people somewhere.
 
Just be sure that when you arrive at the Apple store at which you had reserved your iPad that you've got some evidence of your reservation: printout of the confirmation email or the actual email still on your iPhone or other smartphone. Also it is probably wise to arrive earlier, rather than later, in the day.
 
They know how many can potentially be produced, but have no way of knowing how many will actually be produced and delivered. Consider some numbers for illustration:

500,000 planned for manufacture by delivery cutoff.
250,000 online preorders
50,000 for retail channel availability
200,000 available for reservation

Now, the reservation system was left open US-wide, on all models, and shut down all at once. Apple then has to go through the reservations, filtering for duplicates, and tabulating how many of each configuration were ordered for each store. Maybe they cut off a little too late and there are 201,000 reservations.

>snip<

It's very difficult to pull something like this off flawlessly, and although Apple usually does a pretty good job, there are always upset people somewhere.

Well, I suppose you and I have different views of how good Apple is at general operations planning. Personally, if I were running a company, I'd make sure to leave enough padding to allow for all the eventualities you mention. And with all the computing powers and instant communication technology available today, I would be very surprised if Apple couldn't keep an accurate running tally of total preorders and reservations as they come in. Which is not to say that unforseen disasters can't happen -- like maybe a delivery truck overturning or something. In that case I would expect Apple to make sure that people who didn't get their reserved iPads on April 3 would get their iPads from the next available shipment, and throw in a gift certificate or free accessories as a sign of apology.
 
Well, I suppose you and I have different views of how good Apple is at general operations planning.
They're very good at it. The problem is that you're using a metric of "avoid selling out at all costs" whereas in reality, it's much more complicated, and the goal is to get as close as possible to perfect fulfillment. Apple is paying high premiums for launch date stock, both in terms of peak manufacturing and rush shipments, and you don't overpay for that.

Apple has a long history of big launches and then constrained supplies, and if the reservations received outstrip the ability to fill them and internal estimates, that's just how it goes. You don't want to overestimate demand for a product launch--it's a triple hit to your bottom line. It's almost always preferable to underestimate.
Personally, if I were running a company, I'd make sure to leave enough padding to allow for all the eventualities you mention.
You can't unless you artificially constrain supply. That's the point.
And with all the computing powers and instant communication technology available today, I would be very surprised if Apple couldn't keep an accurate running tally of total preorders and reservations as they come in.
Of course they can. You're still assuming an omniscience that doesn't exist, though. Knowing how many have been ordered is the easy part.
In that case I would expect Apple to make sure that people who didn't get their reserved iPads on April 3 would get their iPads from the next available shipment, and throw in a gift certificate or free accessories as a sign of apology.
I think an apology would be the only sign of apology that could be expected. It would be nice of them to throw in an iTunes gift card or something, but hardly necessary. A reservation is just a courtesy for priority. You don't have a right to expect free food when the table is late or if the kitchen has run out of the special. You certainly don't get anything when your Genius bar appointment time slips by and you end up having to wait 45 minutes.

A reservation isn't an order. If you had paid for the iPad and they gave you a delivery or in-store pickup option, then you'd have a point.
 
I think an apology would be the only sign of apology that could be expected. It would be nice of them to throw in an iTunes gift card or something, but hardly necessary. A reservation is just a courtesy for priority. You don't have a right to expect free food when the table is late or if the kitchen has run out of the special. You certainly don't get anything when your Genius bar appointment time slips by and you end up having to wait 45 minutes.

A reservation isn't an order. If you had paid for the iPad and they gave you a delivery or in-store pickup option, then you'd have a point.

Hmmmmm. Well, taking the restaurant analogy, sure, you don't automatically have a right to free food due to any inconveniences you might experience at a restaurant, but restaurants that offer a complimentary drink or dessert for those kinds of mishaps have a greater chance of repeat customers. It'd be smart of Apple to hand out gift cards to anyone not getting a reserved iPad on the 3rd. My reservation confirmation reads: "...we'll have your iPad ready and waiting for you when you come in to pick it up and pay between 9am and 3 pm on April 3." Sure, the word "guarantee" isn't used, but I think a reasonable person would take this to be a guarantee. As for having to wait longer for a Genius appointment, I don't think that's of the same order as not getting a reserved product. If you arrived at your appointment on time but for some reason couldn't see a Genius at all, then I think that's the same seriousness as not receiving your reserved order.
 
Lol well you just spent $40 on gas and time iNstead of having one show up at your door step.

I've gotten deliveries here before from FedEx. (shudder) Usually, the boxes are mostly still in one piece, but the delivery guy for our area sometimes puts them (mostly) on the porch, sometimes (mostly) in the carport--it's like Package Lotto as to whether it's soaking wet or not and whether you can find it or not. He also seems to have a morbid fear of doorbells, so unless I hear a car in the driveway, I'll never know he was here. Like the Lone Ranger, he'll just silently ride away, leaving only a package behind (assuming I can find it). Living in an area where rain is highly likely come April 3rd, I opted to pick mine up. That and the fun of seeing how many others are as nuts as I am. ;)
 
It'd be smart of Apple to hand out gift cards to anyone not getting a reserved iPad on the 3rd.
I agree, if they wait in line and get to the front and don't get one. If they have a check-in procedure and are told up front that they're sold out, then that's that. They didn't lose anything in that case and in fact are spared the hassle of wasting time in a line to nowhere.
My reservation confirmation reads: "...we'll have your iPad ready and waiting for you when you come in to pick it up and pay between 9am and 3 pm on April 3." Sure, the word "guarantee" isn't used, but I think a reasonable person would take this to be a guarantee.
My email says the same thing, but it's no different from the restaurant confirmation that says "we'll have your table waiting for you." It's always subject to availability, and the very nature of a reservation does not establish a guarantee. As written, it's not even a promise, much less a guarantee.

A guarantee is a secured promise--in other words, one that provides penalties for the breaching party and assurances for the non-breaching party. "We'll have it here" doesn't even rise to the level of a non-binding promise. It just indicates the expected plan.
As for having to wait longer for a Genius appointment, I don't think that's of the same order as not getting a reserved product.
It's not really a question of magnitude. My car dealership offered a reservation list on a limited-release model. They were able to take 10 reservations, and they listed the stock arrival date, but had no way of knowing whether they'd receive 10 cars or if some of those people would be waiting several weeks or several months. When someone provides a sign-up list as a courtesy, it's just that: a courtesy.

There's no consideration offered in support of the reservation to bind anyone to anything. You're not obligated to buy it, and they're not obligated to have it.

Obviously, they will do their best to accommodate all reservations, and there will probably be enough for everyone. But there is a serious problem with people throwing around terms like "guarantee" and "definitely won't be any shortages" because no such assurance can or will be made.
 
My car dealership offered a reservation list on a limited-release model. They were able to take 10 reservations, and they listed the stock arrival date, but had no way of knowing whether they'd receive 10 cars or if some of those people would be waiting several weeks or several months. When someone provides a sign-up list as a courtesy, it's just that: a courtesy.

There's no consideration offered in support of the reservation to bind anyone to anything. You're not obligated to buy it, and they're not obligated to have it.

While I kind of do get what you are saying about courtesy and no obligation, it still strikes me as not quite right if your dealership really did take reservations without knowing it would receive the reserved number of cars. You said:

If they have a check-in procedure and are told up front that they're sold out, then that's that. They didn't lose anything in that case and in fact are spared the hassle of wasting time in a line to nowhere.

But many, or more likely most, people going to Apple stores on the 3rd would be making that trip specifically to get their iPads, on the word from Apple that their reservations would be honored. If they knew there isn't an iPad for them, they wouldn't make the trip at all. For some the trip is several hours both ways. So even if they are turned away without standing in line, they would have wasted time and transportation costs getting to the Apple store. Maybe Apple doesn't have the obligation to compensate these people for the wasted time, travel cost and disappointment, but I do hope they have the courtesy to do so.

Of course, the best result would be for everyone who reserved and shows up to pick up their iPads to get them on the 3rd, thus making our discussion moot. :D
 
But many, or more likely most, people going to Apple stores on the 3rd would be making that trip specifically to get their iPads, on the word from Apple that their reservations would be honored.
Then the thing to do is call the store in the morning and confirm the reservation stock. They voluntarily chose to place a reservation instead of a preorder, and this is the chance you take.
If they knew there isn't an iPad for them, they wouldn't make the trip at all. For some the trip is several hours both ways. So even if they are turned away without standing in line, they would have wasted time and transportation costs getting to the Apple store.
This I don't understand. If the trip was such an undertaking, why wouldn't you just order one? If they're there for the (highly overrated) launch "excitement" then I doubt they wouldn't have shown up if all units were first-come, first-serve.
Of course, the best result would be for everyone who reserved and shows up to pick up their iPads to get them on the 3rd, thus making our discussion moot. :D
Absolutely. And that's most likely exactly what's going to happen. They had enough on hand for the 3GS launch.
 
Last year when they launched the iPhone 3GS, I took advantage of the reservation system they offered at that time as well...

When you arrive at the store and stand in line, periodically an Apple employee will walk up and down the line asking if anyone in line has made a reservation. As soon as you say yes, they will ask you for your name and/or email address which they will look up on the master list on their iPhone (same as when you show up for a Genius Bar appointment) Once they locate your reservation, they will either:

a. Pull you out of the general line and move you ahead of everyone else that hasn't made a reservation...

OR

b. Pull you out of the general line and send you to a 'priority/reserve' line that gets first accommodation initially, and then as time goes on they will allow 1 person from the general line for every 4-5 from the reserve line.

Of course the best suggestion is to get to the store as early as possible. I wouldn't wait until 2:30pm to go and pick up your 'reserved' iPad.

In theory, there is an iPad being held at the location you selected when you placed your reserve, but I wouldn't take the chance. No one will really know how the launch will turn out until the actual morning of.
 
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