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Reading the Tea Leaves (Apple's Health)

N

nathanjbrown

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Apr 9, 2008
265
57
Santa Barbara, CA
It didn't occur to me until 3:07am (EDT) that Apple's health may be in jeapordy. At 9:27am, my fears were confirmed with the state of MacBook availability...

Watch was never ready for launch. Don't be fooled into thinking that the Watch's shipping times slipped due to astronomical demand. They simply don't have units to sell. What limited inventory they had of Sport sold out quickly (before the store.apple.com came online). And it seems as though Black SS was never available (indicating June from the get go). This points to manufacturing and - likely - product development issues.

Then I learned (just a few moments ago) that Retina MacBook inventory isn't showing up in stores. Sounds like more development and/or manufacturing trouble.

I don't own stock in Apple, but - if I did - this would concern me.

Sure. It's possible that I'm reading too much into this. Regardless, I went from being a prospective buyer (Black SS Watch) to an Apple fan waiting for gen 2. Apple Watch is decidedly "1st Gen."
 
nathanjbrown said:
It didn't occur to me until 3:07am (EDT) that Apple's health may be in jeapordy. At 9:27am, my fears were confirmed with the state of MacBook availability...

Watch was never ready for launch. Don't be fooled into thinking that the Watch's shipping times slipped due to astronomical demand. They simply don't have units to sell. What limited inventory they had of Sport sold out quickly (before the store.apple.com came online). And it seems as though Black SS was never available (indicating June from the get go). This points to manufacturing and - likely - product development issues.

Then I learned (just a few moments ago) that Retina MacBook inventory isn't showing up in stores. Sounds like more development and/or manufacturing trouble.

I don't own stock in Apple, but - if I did - this would concern me.

Sure. It's possible that I'm reading too much into this. Regardless, I went from being a prospective buyer (Black SS Watch) to an Apple fan waiting for gen 2. Apple Watch is decidedly "1st Gen."
Click to expand...

So because they may have limited quantities, you have established that the Watch is not good enough to buy now?

OK mate.
 
We get this every year with the iPhone so what's the difference? Honestly demand outstripped supply but in all fairness that's just fantastic advertising on apples part.
 
We're seeing either supply chain issues or a very conservative approach to inventory. Neither is deadly and both can be fixed.
Apple has more money than the U.S. Treasury. They're not hurting for the long term, and i think they can afford to fix these "problems" if they are truly problems.

I personally believe they take a conservative inventory approach and combine that with the old Barnum and Disney "leave 'em wanting more" mantra. The sold out inventory does not bother them. They know they'll sell it.
 
Last edited:
As a stockholder, it's all about the iphone. All I see is in the news today is that the Watch is doing well and selling out. Winner so far. Doesn't really matter what the true story is as this is gen one. Macbook Retina? That's pretty irrelevant anyways.
 
nathanjbrown said:
It didn't occur to me until 3:07am (EDT) that Apple's health may be in jeapordy. At 9:27am, my fears were confirmed with the state of MacBook availability...

Watch was never ready for launch. Don't be fooled into thinking that the Watch's shipping times slipped due to astronomical demand. They simply don't have units to sell. What limited inventory they had of Sport sold out quickly (before the store.apple.com came online). And it seems as though Black SS was never available (indicating June from the get go). This points to manufacturing and - likely - product development issues.

Then I learned (just a few moments ago) that Retina MacBook inventory isn't showing up in stores. Sounds like more development and/or manufacturing trouble.

I don't own stock in Apple, but - if I did - this would concern me.

Sure. It's possible that I'm reading too much into this. Regardless, I went from being a prospective buyer (Black SS Watch) to an Apple fan waiting for gen 2. Apple Watch is decidedly "1st Gen."
Click to expand...

remind me to never get my stock picks from you...
 
Please name any Apple product launch the last 5 years that had 100% availability on day 1?

Every iPhone I've ever bought on launch I'd had to wait 4-6 weeks to actually receive.

It makes perfect sense considering the Apple Watch is a new product line and interest is hard to gauge.
 
Scott-n-Houston said:
We're either supply chain issues or a very conservative approach to inventory. Neither is deadly and both can be fixed.
Apple has more money than the U.S. Treasury. They're not hurting for the long term, and i think they can afford to fix these "problems" if they are truly problems.

I personally believe they take a conservative inventory approach and combine that with the old Barnum and Disney "leave 'em wanting more" mantra. The sold out inventory does not bother them. They know they'll sell it.
Click to expand...

Does Apple really have more cash than the US treasury? Holy cow, that's amazing! :eek:
 
Look to my first post: "Don't be fooled."

I've been a die hard Apple fan for 15+ years. I have family who work for Apple in Cupertino. I've owned every iPhone made (always buying within five minutes of availability). Etc. It pains me to see them slip.

And I've gone from buyer to non-buyer because the absence of Watch inventory (coupled with less than stellar reviews) indicates to me that this product isn't ready for prime time.
 
Apple Watch sells out? Apple's doomed! Plenty of Apple Watch stock available? Nobody wants the product, so Apple's doomed!
 
nathanjbrown said:
Look to my first post: "Don't be fooled."

I've been a die hard Apple fan for 15+ years. I have family who work for Apple in Cupertino. I've owned every iPhone made (always buying within five minutes of availability). Etc. It pains me to see them slip.

And I've gone from buyer to non-buyer because the absence of Watch inventory (coupled with less than stellar reviews) indicates to me that this product isn't ready for prime time.
Click to expand...

Didn't they just post the biggest quarterly profit in history?

Yep, they've 'slipped'.
 
I've never been one for, this wouldn't have happened under Steve type statements.
But someone once said to me and it rung true, there is definitely something Steve had that Tim doesn't. Tim doesn't have Tim working for him.
 
When you're going to carry 30+ models of a brand new product line with no sales history, it's probably a good idea to be conservative with inventory until you find out what your customers like. The later shipping dates mean they will probably be "built to order" thus leaving Apple with little unsold inventory in options customers aren't responding to.
 
They've got a lot riding on the Watch, regardless of their most recent quarterly report. They need a new product category to drive growth. And if I'm right and they're struggling behind the scenes to provide a user experience that Apple customers expect, then - yes - they're slipping.
 
nathanjbrown said:
They've got a lot riding on the Watch, regardless of their most recent quarterly report. They need a new product category to drive growth. And if I'm right and they're struggling behind the scenes to provide a user experience that Apple customers expect, then - yes - they're slipping.
Click to expand...

What evidence do you have that they are struggling?
 
http://appleinsider.com/articles/15...with-software-update-ahead-of-april-24-launch

If they want to load the fixed software on it before it ships, that will delay shipping, and I can easily see Apple not telling us the release date is being delayed. That would screw up a perfect launch.

I bought the Watch at 2:03 on my iPhone in the app, right when the store opened for me, and I'll get it a month late? Doesn't sound right.

I think they are reloading software. These Watches are supposed to be in boxes, how can they give them a software update before shipping? By delaying them.
 
Lack of inventory.
42mm Space Gray Sport shipping estimates slipped within 90 seconds of SOS. That's not demand. That's either A.) poor planning or B.) manufacturing problems.

Not to mention more luke warm reviews than I've ever seen for an Apple product.

----------

This was in response to:

"What evidence do you have that they are struggling?"

----------
wesk702 said:
Was debating between tesla and aapl after the split. Got aapl, glad I did.
Click to expand...

I bought Tesla at $34. Sold at $225.

And I bought a turbo diesel with my "winnings." :)
 
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