The "M2" will almost certainly be based on the A15 iteration, mostly likely with a redesigned CPU (SVE2, other pro-features) and an improved GPU (hardware raytracing, etc.). I doubt that this tech won't make it into laptops. There will be different sizes of chips, for different machines.
There isn't much of an "almost certain" there.
1. Apple hasn't had the bigger iPad Pro SoC ( A10X , A12X , . probable A14X ) on a 12 month cadence for a long while. Apple has typically waited for process shrinks to bump their larger dies.
[ The phones don't particularly need SVE2 and "other pro features" ( large RAM capacities , mid double digit PCI-e lane provisioning, etc. ) that would bloat out the die size for the phone. Apple has their own AMX matrix like extensions and can probably tune up SVE on 5nm or 5nm+ for the phones on the A15 iteration. ]
2. A15 isn't going to be a major fab shrink. In particular if look at the rumors that starts this thread it says that this "M2" (not official name) is the same 5nm as the current M1.
wit
Even if Apple goes to 5nm+ that would likely more so used as a clock bump ( and power savings when 'boost' is off) that are an iteration to add large blocks of new transistors to the die.
Apple isn't getting to 3nm for at least another two years.
3. Hardware ray tracing for GPU. Maybe. If there is a decent amount of space increase buffer in the A14 package for a bigger die maybe if there is some deep tie in with Apple's AR agenda.
In short, most of what the A15 is going to be aimed at is likley to higher value adds for the phones, not the desktops.
The desktops are more likely to get some A14 derivation on a larger die. The Macs with perhaps some possible synergy with the A15 is more likely MBA and MBP 13" if Apple is going to pick up the cacdence for iPad Pro SoC iterations. That is where the volume is ( hence where they are more likely to stick a major investment in higher cadence). The desktops are likely on a
slower than iPad Pro/MBA/MPB 13" cadence. Not faster.
That is probably yet another reason why Apple is using "M-series" to denote the Mac processors. So they don't have to iterate as fast as the phone A versions.
IMHO, M2 is not likely until an A16 is ready to show up. What the desktops will get is some M1 with a letter added to the end with more of the current "stuff" on the tie.
For the upper end of desktop range ( iMac 27 upped end BTO , iMac Pro class , Mac Pro class) what they need is more PCI-e lanes to discrete GPUs and adding 3rd party GPUs back into the support mix ( likely will have to wait until macOS 12 ... which gets to the Fall 2021. ). The iGPU in the Mac Pro doesn't have to be everything to everybody. It just has to be in the rang of "good enough" like the W5500 and W580X are.
The current Mini M1 being stuck with just one display output through the TB/USB4 ports is indicative that Apple isn't doing a "spare no expense , fork the M series as far as possible from the A series" approach to doing Mac processors. They aren't. The expectations that they are going to throw even more money at Mac processors than the do to iPhone processors is probably misaligned with what Apple is going to do. M-series is probably going to get some added features, but not run widely away from the phone SoCs.