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I’ll disagree here. I see people with cracked screens every single day. The probably is pretty high considering how often they are being moved.

It is pretty insane how many people walk around with cracked screens. Given people have to finance these things to get their hands on it, might as well roll in the cost of Applecare to your monthly payment...
 
with the upgrade program do you have to turn in the old phone before/at time of buying new phone?

i always like to set up the new phone before restoring the old phone because i spend several hours setting the new phone up as new by having the old phone in my left hand, new phone in my right hand, and going through every single setting on each phone and mirroring them. if i had to trade in the current phone at the time i got the new one, i couldnt do that and would never know what my settings were.
 
After one year, if something is wrong they won’t replace it without fee...so...
 
Never get Apple care. Many economists have researched this topic and say insurance should only be purchased in areas where incidents can be potentially catastrophic and repairs/recovery services being considerably cost prohibitive, like health insurance. For phones? Using the probability weighted scenario, the cost of Apple care is not justified. Paying out of pocket is cheaper if you consider probability of cracking your screen
The are talking about economic aggregates, meaning on average the "house" wins but on the level of the individual it maybe different/ For example I will be using my iphone X naked and in many "strenuous" conditions. Hence the probability of incurring damage/cost is greater for me than it would be for the aggregate population. Meaning apple care would save me money over the 2 years. The opposite would be true for people that put their phones in cases and screen protectors out of the box. Since the latter population is larger, apple makes money from the aggregate. However, on and individual basis your logic doesnt apply.
 
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