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Boil

macrumors 68040
Oct 23, 2018
3,478
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Stargate Command
Jim Keller was also a former colleague of mine, as long as we are listing my former colleagues. :). (Rick Bergman should count twice, since I also worked with him at Exponential Technology :) )

Where's my X704 CPU...?!?

Intel planned to have 10nm working in 2015 too.


I haven’t watched the video, but RGT has usually been light on technical information in his other videos. If there’s anything technical do you have any opinions on this? To my mind, this doesn’t seem feasible.

I think you might be confusing RGT (Red Gaming Tech) with MLID (Moore's Law Is Dead). Please don't, Tom (MLID) gives actual info, Paul (RGT) tries to pass off info he garners from other tech channels (like MLID) as his own secret sources.
 

JMacHack

Suspended
Mar 16, 2017
1,965
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I guess that depends on what you mean by real work or Apple Silicon. The A7 SoC first shipped in 2013. That was Apples first ARM64 design and the first ARM64 SoC in a smart phone.
I meant 2013 for the a7, wires got crossed in my brain.


Where's my X704 CPU...?!?



I think you might be confusing RGT (Red Gaming Tech) with MLID (Moore's Law Is Dead). Please don't, Tom (MLID) gives actual info, Paul (RGT) tries to pass off info he garners from other tech channels (like MLID) as his own secret sources.
oh man, I dunno how I made that mistake. The video is from mlid, not rgt. See above about wires getting crossed!
 

cmaier

Suspended
Jul 25, 2007
25,405
33,474
California
Where's my X704 CPU...?!?



I think you might be confusing RGT (Red Gaming Tech) with MLID (Moore's Law Is Dead). Please don't, Tom (MLID) gives actual info, Paul (RGT) tries to pass off info he garners from other tech channels (like MLID) as his own secret sources.

I have a couple x704’s :). My daughter keeps them in a collection of chips I designed.

I loved Exponential. Best job I ever had.
 
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Colstan

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Jul 30, 2020
330
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Jim Keller was also a former colleague of mine, as long as we are listing my former colleagues. :). (Rick Bergman should count twice, since I also worked with him at Exponential Technology :) )
I know you worked with Keller. However, as far as I am aware, he's not a source for Tom's video. At this point, you've worked with so many people, I'm assuming that @cmaier is an omnipotent immortal that has stories from your days working with the likes of Tesla, Edison, Galileo, and how you were the real driving force behind trigonometry, in ancient Babylon, a millennia before Pythagorus. You'll also surely complain about Newton being a grump.
 
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cmaier

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Jul 25, 2007
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I know you worked with Keller. However, as far as I am aware, he's not a source for Tom's video. At this point, you've worked with so many people, I'm assuming that @cmaier is an omnipotent immortal that has stories from your days working with the likes of Tesla, Edison, Galileo, and how you were the real driving force behind trigonometry, in ancient Babylon, a millennia before Pythagorus. You'll also surely complain about Newton being a grump.

Sadly nope. Newton complained about me being a grump.

Keller architected hyper transport (we didn’t call it that), and the chip architecture was a group effort. Good times.
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,151
14,574
New Hampshire
They have such things today, in fact! :)

Single-core and multi-core? I think that the i9-12900 gets them there but that's not for sale yet. The question is will Intel be able to beat the M1 in performance per watt in 2025? It sounds like Intel means to improve IPC by 30% per year. Apple generally doesn't talk about what they're doing until very near the time that they launch. And Apple has a good track record of improving IPC every year. I think that Intel and AMD have been on longer product cycles.

I have an i7-10700 Window desktop with a lot of RAM and storage. I also have an M1 mini. The i7-10700 has overall better performance for my production stuff but the M1 is better for my office stuff. So I partition my workload. I am sure that an M1X mini could easily replace my Intel system. It might be even able to replace both systems if it can drive four 4k monitors.

I don't think that Apple cares to compete with Intel in servers but they want to make great computers, tablets and phones and I think that Apple is going to be a very tough competitor. Same as they are right now.
 

SlCKB0Y

macrumors 68040
Feb 25, 2012
3,431
557
Sydney, Australia
(And for those who don't, he was on the AMD team responsible for x86-64.)

Lol. Don’t forget, for quite a long time this was AMD64 and I don’t think AMD at the time considered x86-64 to be the nomenclature. I believe x86-64 arose later due to all the cross licensing settlements that occurred and AMD themselves rebranding it. But to me, it was AMD64, given that AMDs 64bit ISA became the dominant one and was adopted by Intel. I imagine this caused Intel a significant amount of butthurt at their pride at the time.

Interestingly, many Linux distros still use(d) “amd64” instead of “x86_64” until a few years ago. Some may still do for all I know!
 
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cmaier

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Lol. Don’t forget, for quite a long time this was AMD64 and I don’t think AMD at the time considered x86-64 to be the nomenclature. I believe x86-64 arose later due to all the cross licensing settlements that occurred and AMD themselves rebranding it. But to me, it was AMD64, given that AMDs 64bit ISA became the dominant one and was adopted by Intel. I imagine this caused Intel a significant amount of butthurt at their pride at the time.

Interestingly, many Linux distros still use(d) “amd64” instead of “x86_64” until a few years ago. Some may still do for all I know!

Yes, we called it AMD64 (marketing-wise). On the team, I don’t recall there being a name we used. We referred to the chips, but not really the ISA (other than to say “K8”). Chips were sledgehammer and clawhammer.
 

Colstan

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Jul 30, 2020
330
711
Don’t forget, for quite a long time this was AMD64 and I don’t think AMD at the time considered x86-64 to be the nomenclature.
Oh, absolutely. I didn't intend on diminishing the hard work that @cmaier and the team at AMD did by using that nomenclature. It just seems that x86-64 is the most common name today among most tech users, but it's entirely an AMD original technology, that Intel had no choice but to adopt. Today, Intel shamelessly refers to it as Intel® 64, because of course they do.
 

cmaier

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Jul 25, 2007
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Oh, absolutely. I didn't intend on diminishing the hard work that @cmaier and the team at AMD did by using that nomenclature. It just seems that x86-64 is the most common name today among most tech users, but it's entirely an AMD original technology, that Intel had no choice but to adopt. Today, Intel shamelessly refers to it as Intel® 64, because of course they do.
It was amazingly ad-hoc. We had a whole lot of people working on K8, which was going to be a very complicated architecture - I don’t know the details, but at the time I think we thought we had to go blow-for-blow against itanium. I was not involved - I was working on K6 revisions, a whole bunch of them at once.

Then a whole heck of a lot of people resigned. I ended up in charge of design methodology somehow, despite having almost no experience in writing CAD tools, because I did write a few for my own use and they became popular with other team members, and I was pretty good at figuring out what our CAD team should be working on.

More people resigned, thanks to a certain manager from Austin coming up and daring the Sunnyvale team to quit.

We were down to around 15 people with experience leading portions of the design. It was clear we could never deliver on the complicated version of K8, so our boss invited us to a fancy french restaurant, sketched out his ideas on a napkin (maybe not literally. I can’t remember), and asked who was in and who wasn’t. I think there were 13 of us there. Not everyone agreed to stay and work on it. We didn’t have a full-time architect, so I was told to go write the ISA for 64-bit integer ops myself, and to do the initial design of the units. I also owned either the scheduler or the floating point unit - i swapped from one to the other at some point and can’t remember which came first. Me and a couple colleagues were also responsible for “globals” (how do we distribute power, clocks, buffer signals, what do the standard cells look like, where do we insert bypass capacitance, how do we use our signal metal layers, how do we deal with electromigration, IR drop, power droop, where do we do clock gating, how do we set up the design hierarchy to allow multiple cores in some versions of the design, etc.). Eventually I moved full time to the design methodology system.

Anyway, it was all pretty crazy because the design was much more bottom-up than usual, since it took awhile before we assembled a team of architects and the like.
 

satcomer

Suspended
Feb 19, 2008
9,115
1,977
The Finger Lakes Region
Intel needs to be a AMD first before it weighs in Apple M1 chip they need to get there h=ouse up to modern spec! AMD is whipping Intel so bad most gamers jumped to AMD as far as 2020 and will so some time I next 5-7 years!
 

Colstan

macrumors 6502
Original poster
Jul 30, 2020
330
711
Anyway, it was all pretty crazy because the design was much more bottom-up than usual, since it took awhile before we assembled a team of architects and the like.
I absolutely love stories like this, because those of us on the outside really had no idea what was going on. I remember reading an article on the Register by Mike Magee that stated that the first time that Opteron was demoed that Intel executies were "in shock". In a separate article, the Register claimed that Intel execs were "confident and not bothered" by your creation. On the outside, we didn't really know what to think, until of course it was hammer time with the new processors.

Your outlaw band of engineers really did a bang on job, for a small team. Maybe that ended up benefitting the project, in the end. Intel boasts of its 10,000 engineers, but how many of them are able to make an Alpha rather than another Itanium? Ever since Keller left for "personal reasons", which is often code for "I hate my job", I wonder how they are going to proceed in the future.
 
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cmaier

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I absolutely love stories like this, because those of us on the outside really had no idea what was going on. I remember reading an article on the Register by Mike Magee that stated that the first time that Opteron was demoed that Intel executies were "in shock". In a separate article, the Register claimed that Intel execs were "confident and not bothered" by your creation. On the outside, we didn't really know what to think, until of course it was hammer time with the new processors.

Your outlaw band of engineers really did a bang on job, for a small team. Maybe that ended up benefitting the project, in the end. Intel boasts of its 10,000 engineers, but how many of them are able to make an Alpha rather than another Itanium? Ever since Keller left for "personal reasons", which is often code for "I hate my job", I wonder how they are going to proceed in the future.

I recall going to a conference in the Monterey bay aquarium, and there were some Intel engineers there. I remember overhearing them talking about how there is no way that our performance claims could be right, because we had such a small design team. Amazing what you can do when you don’t sleep :) My favorite story was when we taped out, there was a small glitch somewhere. The fix was to move a little bit of metal around. We loaded up one of our tools to find the exact coordinates where the metal had to be removed and other metal added, then I loaded up a .def file in vim and manually edited the coordinates in the file, rather than run everything through our tools again, which would have cost another day. I took advantage of the fact that the next tool in the chain was something I wrote, and it was flexible with its .def parsing, so I didn’t have to go back and change many lines of the file to make it work. I don’t think Intel would ever dare something like that :)
 
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deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
]

My quick summary of the pertinent details:

1. Royal Core is the architecture that Keller was working on to evolve past the current Core architecture.
2. The aim of the project was to beat Apple and ARM in the efficiency game for the foreseeable future.
3. Royal Core was originally planned to be released with Lunar Lake in 2024, but much of that effort has been put off to Nova Lake, in 2025.
4. Biggest update since the original Core architecture, double the IPC of Golden Cove.
5. Lunar Lake plans to be 30% more performant than Meteor Lake, Nova Lake extends this with Panther Cove.
6. SMT4, DDR5 7400, Machine Learning Accelerator planned for 2026.
7. Some of the features planned for Lunar Lake, etc. were "moonshot" ideas, which has gotten Intel into trouble in the past, so Pat Gelsinger has tried to reign in some of those plans from the previous administration.
8. Despite what is said in public, Intel considers Apple to be a substantial threat, not just competition with AMD.

Of the technical details, the most interesting aspect is that Intel is quote "strongly considering" 4-way Hyperthreading for future processors.


I think you missed the forest for the trees here . The "disaggregation" and "building blocks" agenda most likely means that "4-way Hyperthreading" would not show up in the part they were throwing at the competitive to Apple products market. One of the primary point of doing thing in a chunks is that you don't have to use it where you don't need it. So they don't need to entangle as many high end server features into low-mid range consumer laptop products.

#4 above is muddled because that isn't going to be one leap in a single bound. +20% -> +20% -> +20% -> 40% probably is easier to +100% in one jump.

#6 DD5 7400 being "Buck Rogers" fantasy stuff of far off decades ....

Machine Learning Accelerator would be off in a separate tile in the SoC. ( not necessarily going to show up in the combo pointed at by Apple. ML Training Accelerator may not may the same cut as a ML inference one.




Despite all of the noise around Alder Lake, Intel doesn't actually think they will catch Apple for another four years. So, what do you folks think of Intel planning to beat Apple in 2025?

Again with the desegregation Intel could bring Xe-HPG tiles on TMSC N3 to the Arrow lake about the same time Apple is moving to N3 . So yeah, the intel P and E cores may be "back" on Intel 7 or 4 but if like Apple removing dGPUs from laptops that would still be a key move to stay competitive. If Intel's GPU tiles work in laptops pretty well at TSMC N3 then most of the "pain points" that Apple's M-series at that point would be against the mobile versions of AMD and Nvidia. Intel's Xe-HPG is already on TSMC N6. Going to N3 in 2 years isn't a moonshot project. That should be pretty straightforward to do.

it "chop off" the iGPU then what is left on the other tile on Intel N4 (or N7) just got smaller and easier to make (yield wise).

Will Intel's 3D SoC package be more expensive to make than Apple's probably monolithic contemporary M-series. Probably. Is Apple going to sell their SoC for razor thin margins less than Intel? Probably not. TMSC just announced price increases. Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD/Xlinix , Apple, Microsoft/Sony , HiSilcon, Intel , etc. etc. all buying up 100% of the capacity probably is going to keep prices higher 2-3 years out too. [ Likely this isn't going to be a temporary bubble. ]


Intel's probably isn't just with Apple though. There is real threat from Qualcomm and Samsung/AMD-GPU eating into a sizable volume of the Windows laptop market. And also AMD changing their mind for a laptop "almost last" in priority focus. I think Intel is using Apple as more of a visible focal point for the threat in general rather than getting all wound up in that they are being attacked from multiple directions all at once.

Also if Intel's graphics drivers for Xe-HPG have problems then having a N3 Xe-HPG tile isn't going to help them a whole lot.

The disaggregation strategy is in part a way for Intel to attack in 6 different directions all at the same time. (they are still in the "do everything for everybody" business). I don't think they have to technically "beat" Apple in that one specific , relatively narrow niches Apple is going to highly likely confine themselves.


Also on the software front. Windows 10 should be "de-supported" in 2025. Pragmatically, that means 32-bit Windows will be de-supported around at that point too. Having too few registers doesn't help getting to higher IPC. If Microsoft and Intel (and AMD ) also do a rational garbage collection on the grossly bloated SIMD opcodes .... that could be a big contributor to some IPC uplift.

Windows 11 Microsoft is cutting off some "old stuff". That could be precusor to a bigger cut in 2025. Four years for the slackers to get their stuff cleaned up. Freed from having to run code from 1997 ... yeah that could help Intel close the gap on Apple in 5 years or so. Get rid of the boat anchor and can actually start to hit some decent knots cruising speed.
 

Kung gu

Suspended
Oct 20, 2018
1,379
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I think you missed the forest for the trees here . The "disaggregation" and "building blocks" agenda most likely means that "4-way Hyperthreading" would not show up in the part they were throwing at the competitive to Apple products market. One of the primary point of doing thing in a chunks is that you don't have to use it where you don't need it. So they don't need to entangle as many high end server features into low-mid range consumer laptop products.

#4 above is muddled because that isn't going to be one leap in a single bound. +20% -> +20% -> +20% -> 40% probably is easier to +100% in one jump.

#6 DD5 7400 being "Buck Rogers" fantasy stuff of far off decades ....

Machine Learning Accelerator would be off in a separate tile in the SoC. ( not necessarily going to show up in the combo pointed at by Apple. ML Training Accelerator may not may the same cut as a ML inference one.






Again with the desegregation Intel could bring Xe-HPG tiles on TMSC N3 to the Arrow lake about the same time Apple is moving to N3 . So yeah, the intel P and E cores may be "back" on Intel 7 or 4 but if like Apple removing dGPUs from laptops that would still be a key move to stay competitive. If Intel's GPU tiles work in laptops pretty well at TSMC N3 then most of the "pain points" that Apple's M-series at that point would be against the mobile versions of AMD and Nvidia. Intel's Xe-HPG is already on TSMC N6. Going to N3 in 2 years isn't a moonshot project. That should be pretty straightforward to do.

it "chop off" the iGPU then what is left on the other tile on Intel N4 (or N7) just got smaller and easier to make (yield wise).

Will Intel's 3D SoC package be more expensive to make than Apple's probably monolithic contemporary M-series. Probably. Is Apple going to sell their SoC for razor thin margins less than Intel? Probably not. TMSC just announced price increases. Qualcomm, Nvidia, AMD/Xlinix , Apple, Microsoft/Sony , HiSilcon, Intel , etc. etc. all buying up 100% of the capacity probably is going to keep prices higher 2-3 years out too. [ Likely this isn't going to be a temporary bubble. ]


Intel's probably isn't just with Apple though. There is real threat from Qualcomm and Samsung/AMD-GPU eating into a sizable volume of the Windows laptop market. And also AMD changing their mind for a laptop "almost last" in priority focus. I think Intel is using Apple as more of a visible focal point for the threat in general rather than getting all wound up in that they are being attacked from multiple directions all at once.

Also if Intel's graphics drivers for Xe-HPG have problems then having a N3 Xe-HPG tile isn't going to help them a whole lot.

The disaggregation strategy is in part a way for Intel to attack in 6 different directions all at the same time. (they are still in the "do everything for everybody" business). I don't think they have to technically "beat" Apple in that one specific , relatively narrow niches Apple is going to highly likely confine themselves.


Also on the software front. Windows 10 should be "de-supported" in 2025. Pragmatically, that means 32-bit Windows will be de-supported around at that point too. Having too few registers doesn't help getting to higher IPC. If Microsoft and Intel (and AMD ) also do a rational garbage collection on the grossly bloated SIMD opcodes .... that could be a big contributor to some IPC uplift.

Windows 11 Microsoft is cutting off some "old stuff". That could be precusor to a bigger cut in 2025. Four years for the slackers to get their stuff cleaned up. Freed from having to run code from 1997 ... yeah that could help Intel close the gap on Apple in 5 years or so. Get rid of the boat anchor and can actually start to hit some decent knots cruising speed.
A simple answer to this is just we have to wait and see and judge by what we have now.
 

Bandaman

Cancelled
Aug 28, 2019
2,005
4,091
Although I always encourage competitive innovation, Intel has become a laughing stock and I'll believe it when I see it.
 

Andropov

macrumors 6502a
May 3, 2012
746
990
Spain
Of the technical details, the most interesting aspect is that Intel is quote "strongly considering" 4-way Hyperthreading for future processors.
Isn't it kind of a bad sign that they expect to need FOUR threads to fully utilize the resources of a single core? Or am I missing something here?
 
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cmaier

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Isn't it kind of a bad sign that they expect to need FOUR threads to fully utilize the resources of a single core? Or am I missing something here?
No, you didn’t miss anything. Unless they plan to add a lot of pipelines to each core, this is just further evidence of the inefficiency of the cores. And if they *are* adding a lot of pipelines, that’s a bad idea.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,493
4,053
Isn't it kind of a bad sign that they expect to need FOUR threads to fully utilize the resources of a single core? Or am I missing something here?

Right tool for the right job.

For certain workloads the techniques that Apple uses to achieve high throughput "instructions per clocks" won't work. Workloads that go deep into a relatively very large, broad storage (or I/O ) hierarchy ( lots of needed data sitting on on rotational storage drives ) . Workload that cover a relatively very large amount of virtual memory that is mapped onto a relatively large physical memory ( memory mapping problem that is larger than translation lookup cache ). High concurrent, multiple user/tenant workloads ( lots of different programs asking for different things and running slightly different code execution blocks. )


Apple has deprecated HFS and dealing with large (i.e., 100's of TB or more ) file systems. APFS is primarily focused on single SSD drives. Vast majority of Mac (and iOS/iPad ) systems are effectively limited to one, and only one , SSD drive. SSD drives have relatively limited capacity and when further limit to just one the "max capacity usually seen" gets even smaller.

If load data from a L2 cache , RAM , SSD , or HDD there are different amounts of delay which insert execution "bubbles". Apple's set up doesn't tolerate the last of those very well at all.

Apple soldering the RAM to the SoC means the max RAM capacity is relatively limited. The M1 Mini backslides from a max RAM capacity of 64GB (with Intel model ) down to 16GB. That is loss of 4x . Apple's half sized Mac Pro probably is going to present an even steeper drop off. So the translation cache pressure is much lower when have vastly smaller amounts of addresses to translate. However, folks who build systems that scale up to 16TB of RAM are going to have different problems over in the "deep end" side of the RAM capacity pool.


M-series is design to sacrifice throughput for background apps to make the single user sitting in front of the personal computer foreground app go faster. That single user focus doesn't mesh well if servicing 100 different requests from a 100 different users at the same time. One app gets special treatment while the rest 'eat dirt" won't produce highest overall aggregate throughput from that context. While Apple is optimizing for single user at a time systems they are also optimizing away from multiple concurrent users deployments at the same time. Those two 'zones' are becoming increasingly decoupled .


IBM Power 10 has both SMT4 and SMT8 configurations. (and Power has had SMT4 for a couple iterations now. Intel getting to SMT4 would be 'catch up'. ).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/POWER10


All of that stuff listed wasn't solely about Intel competing with Apple. One of Intel's issues is that they are competing with more than a few SoC vendors all at the same time concurrently. Intel has to fend off Power 10 as much as the M1.
 
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