A few things to consider:
Before 2013, year to year uplift was 50% under Intel, now its 15-20% under TSMC. This means back then you could buy a computer and in 3 years the new model would be double the speed of your current model. Now it's more like 6 years before a doubling. You are right that the 2013 to 2021 era was special, because it took 8 years for a doubling.
But even if you could double the speed of your computer after 6 years, does it matter as much now as it did before 2013? I think we've hit diminishing returns for most basic tasks. And if you really need to do more intensive computing, you can always offload it to a cloud service.
Finally, Apple supports software upgrades for around 7 years plus 2 additional years of security updates for a total of around 9 years of support, so 10 years of usage isn't off the mark if you maintain the computer well and your work doesn't demand more power.
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If cost is an issue, my recommendation would be to buy the refurbished M2 Macbook Air and see if it performs well for you. If not, exchange it within the 14 day period for the refurbished M1 Macbook Pro 14".
Also, you can save money by not getting AppleCare+. I'm not sure how well you keep your hardware, but my family and I have had many Apple computers throughout the years and we've never had any issues with them. It's only years beyond what AppleCare would have provided that we needed to replace batteries.
But if you are set on AppleCare+, there is also a yearly subscription instead of paying the 3 years upfront. For example, the Macbook Pro 14" would be $99/year vs $279 upfront.
You save $13 dollars by paying upfront, but if you are short, go for the yearly plan and if after the first year if you feel you aren't going to need it, cancel the plan and save yourself $198.
Finally, if you can stretch it to the 2023 M2 MBP 14”, you'll get an extra hour of battery life, 20% more cpu, 30% more gpu and an extra year of software support compared to the 2021 M1 MBP 14".