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The End of History (of Computers)
- Thread starter BluAffiliate
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Probably something embedded in your head. Needs a lot of work in the neuroscience department.
Like Risasi said, possibly something like a contact lens that displays images on your eyeball.
I really doubt that by 2019 we will have average computers that are smarter than the human brain. The fastest supercomputer computer currently is about 4 times as fast as the human brain (and consumes 10 megawatts of power compared to the brains 20 watts) and is composed of more than 10000 processor cores.
Like Risasi said, possibly something like a contact lens that displays images on your eyeball.
I really doubt that by 2019 we will have average computers that are smarter than the human brain. The fastest supercomputer computer currently is about 4 times as fast as the human brain (and consumes 10 megawatts of power compared to the brains 20 watts) and is composed of more than 10000 processor cores.
Watch some future concept videos (from Microsoft, Corning, ect.) and a billion ideas will pop into your head. Ideas that are completely possible Our world is going to become so dense with technology, you won't believe it. It's obvious where we're headed, we already have bits and pieces of what it takes to send ourselves way forward. Again, look at some concept videos and get more ideas.
The next computer, I believe will be the iPhone.
Yes I have said it, but it already does a lot as is, they do need to add things that Apple thinks people will need over the next decade or two, such as vital information, etc. All this can be done using extra sensors in the iPhone. (as said above already).
(ADD any other smartphones besides Blackberry to that list as well, as Blackberries will be non-existant in ten to twenty years anyways
)
Yes I have said it, but it already does a lot as is, they do need to add things that Apple thinks people will need over the next decade or two, such as vital information, etc. All this can be done using extra sensors in the iPhone. (as said above already).
(ADD any other smartphones besides Blackberry to that list as well, as Blackberries will be non-existant in ten to twenty years anyways
)
What is this?
Do you really think you have a point?
When you started using your first computer? What model was it?
Why do you use a computer?
We are not even at the surface of what is next.
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Why do you think there is not any recent progress made in the Automotive Industry?
Because the way you use your car is not very different from how it was driven 50 years ago, it doesn't mean that the technology inside a car is the same.
There are several different new technologies applied and because as a consumer you don't pay attention or the car makers don't advertise them as much as other industries, it doesn't mean that there is no innovation.
Do you really think you have a point?
When you started using your first computer? What model was it?
Why do you use a computer?
We are not even at the surface of what is next.
----------
Why do you think there is not any recent progress made in the Automotive Industry?
Because the way you use your car is not very different from how it was driven 50 years ago, it doesn't mean that the technology inside a car is the same.
There are several different new technologies applied and because as a consumer you don't pay attention or the car makers don't advertise them as much as other industries, it doesn't mean that there is no innovation.
You interpreted my statement wrong. I was saying that there have been times when there was not much innovation in the automotive industry, namely a long time ago
Goodness knows there is ton of innovation right now. Detroit coming back, all the phone-car integration, and traction control and OBDII if you want to go back a little further.
This is by and large one of the most sensationalist, vacant threads of thought I have seen posted on the internet. Of course, there are worse. But, you presented your hollow philosophy 201 thesis with such self-assured flourish I nearly gagged.
OP - who the hell do you think you are? Do you sincerely believe the extent of human knowledge begins and ends with a Wikipedia article - do you have any idea how much research is conducted constantly to search for next-gen technology?
Did you know, for example, that there are some very bright individuals currently implementing algorithms to create an automated system for automobile transportation. No accidents, traffic made nonexistent - these and much more are goals for these engineers and computer programmers. In fact, in select cities, right now, they have unmanned cars driving & "learning" how to adapt to roads and the environment. True auto-pilot.
Certainly, the idea of a standard robotic car whisking you off essentially anywhere you need to go - and back - sounds eerie. Still, there is so much you don't know going on off the internet - it's really quite fascinating.
Quit spewing armchair intellectual presumptuous bull.s. before someone actually makes the mistake of believing you.
Edit: and don't reiterate that you were focusing on only laptops or a certain type of computer: in this day and age it's all computers, everything - cars, phones, laptops, tablets - an advancement in one is ultimately an advancement of all.
OP - who the hell do you think you are? Do you sincerely believe the extent of human knowledge begins and ends with a Wikipedia article - do you have any idea how much research is conducted constantly to search for next-gen technology?
Did you know, for example, that there are some very bright individuals currently implementing algorithms to create an automated system for automobile transportation. No accidents, traffic made nonexistent - these and much more are goals for these engineers and computer programmers. In fact, in select cities, right now, they have unmanned cars driving & "learning" how to adapt to roads and the environment. True auto-pilot.
Certainly, the idea of a standard robotic car whisking you off essentially anywhere you need to go - and back - sounds eerie. Still, there is so much you don't know going on off the internet - it's really quite fascinating.
Quit spewing armchair intellectual presumptuous bull.s. before someone actually makes the mistake of believing you.
Edit: and don't reiterate that you were focusing on only laptops or a certain type of computer: in this day and age it's all computers, everything - cars, phones, laptops, tablets - an advancement in one is ultimately an advancement of all.
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@visim91
Quite a rant, but I mostly agree with you
@OP
There is a well established theory of progress in computer hardware, called Moore's law. Every few years, someone comes and predicts it's breakdown... so far, those predictions were all proven wrong, and Moore's law continues to hold.
I don't see the motivation to apply Fukuyama's theorem to the evolution of computers or laptops. Democracy has been around for a few thousand years, among with many other government forms like monarchies, theocracies, etc. In that sense, there is no evolution in the political systems, only a shift towards democracy in many countries.
If it can be applied at all to computer sciences, CPU architectures is a possible candidate, where the x86 architecture largely dominates the PC market. But even that comparison would be far fetched.
Quite a rant, but I mostly agree with you
@OP
There is a well established theory of progress in computer hardware, called Moore's law. Every few years, someone comes and predicts it's breakdown... so far, those predictions were all proven wrong, and Moore's law continues to hold.
I don't see the motivation to apply Fukuyama's theorem to the evolution of computers or laptops. Democracy has been around for a few thousand years, among with many other government forms like monarchies, theocracies, etc. In that sense, there is no evolution in the political systems, only a shift towards democracy in many countries.
If it can be applied at all to computer sciences, CPU architectures is a possible candidate, where the x86 architecture largely dominates the PC market. But even that comparison would be far fetched.
Everything you study extensively must be in pusuit of acedemic credentials.
Maybe people study stuff extensively because they like it..
I've read German philosophy extensively, yet have an MBA.
The most frightening thing of the next generation of computers is actually the application of robots in wars. I am not talking about surveying drones or transport mules but about actual fighting machines. Asimov's three laws for robots have already been violated / ignored.
There is no end to the advancement in technology. things will ALWAYS be improving. look at Siri. Siri isn't the first personal assistant on a digital device, but probably the most known one at the moment. There are, however, many things siri can't do. But give it time, she'll be able to do it someday for you.
and then... transformers.
and then... transformers.
There have been a lot of hateful responses to my thread, but this is by far the most outrageous one. Not sure if you're personally insulted because I'm somehow challenging Apple or because I am college educated, but why be personally insulted at all?
Since this was posted in a MacBook Pro forum, what did you think I was talking about? I guess me mentioning that I am referring to "laptops in particular" kinda whizzed by your head just like my main point did.
And my point is as follows: personal computers, specifically laptops, have reached the end of their development and I stand by my point. There isn't anything on the horizon for laptops that are really a game changer. A laptop made today and one made 3 years ago is pretty much the same thing with the exact functions.. the only difference is perhaps the processor is faster, and a small percentage of them have solid state drives. This is going to remain the case into the future. My MacBook Pro from 2008 is essentially the same as my room mate's that was bought in 2011. Sure, I don't have a Thunderbolt (but who really uses that or can't live without it), but after I installed a SSD into it, it's just as fast if not faster than his.
And I have also reported you for bypassing the swearing filter.
And what had changed between 2005 and 2008? 2002-2005? If you're looking at it like that, obviously you won't see much change.
As I said in an earlier post, except for performance, the first laptops and the ones we see today are pretty much similar.
The end of history will occur when computers evolve into the best kind of government, like Isaac Asimov's Brains.
But back to your point about laptops specifically - you may be right. As you would have been 30 years ago, if you'd said desktops had reached the end - then along came laptops, and it all started again. This time iPads - when tablets reach the end of their development, who knows what will take over, and become the standard type of computer? I'm hoping for a real retina display.
But back to your point about laptops specifically - you may be right. As you would have been 30 years ago, if you'd said desktops had reached the end - then along came laptops, and it all started again. This time iPads - when tablets reach the end of their development, who knows what will take over, and become the standard type of computer? I'm hoping for a real retina display.
As bad as the source
Can you find me many references to the power of phones even two decades ago? Or find me some techno-futurist that consistently predicts what happens correctly. Laptops evolve idiosyncratic unpredictable ways because that's the way our societies and brains evolve.
Can you find me many references to the power of phones even two decades ago? Or find me some techno-futurist that consistently predicts what happens correctly. Laptops evolve idiosyncratic unpredictable ways because that's the way our societies and brains evolve.
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First of all, it's very easy to come up with excuses for why your computer is better than one that was made 3 years later, (I've been doing it myself as I own a late 2008 MBP) but that doesn't make it true. Advancements have been made, and will continue to be made as long as life on Earth continues to require them. This is true of laptops as well as technology in general. Whether those advancements have personally improved quality of life for you or others close to you, is a completely different matter altogether.
Secondly, Fukuyama was simply wrong in his essay:
"What we may be witnessing is not just the end of the Cold War, or the passing of a particular period of postwar history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government."
Evolution simply has no end point. As your immediate environment changes, you adapt, and over time, evolve. This is true of biological, cultural, sociological, ideological, and any other type of evolution. It is hard to believe that people had simply ceased to change their ideologies after the Cold War, and even more difficult to believe that Apple, or any other technological entity, will cease to improve their products.
That would be awesome...
we dont know what is next because it isnt here yet. and portability is the future. IMO software is the future i.e the cloud. everyone wants to be mobile so the next big thing is software. obvioulsy hardware will always be needed but the next big step will be software regarding cloud computing and more mobile and far more capable devices. arent we just entering the post pc era. the tablets just need time to take on heavier and more demanding tasks. so IMO the next big thing is portability integrated with cloud software
For Seven Years back in the 70's I was a Maintenance man on the largest computer ever built - the IBM Q-7 NORAD SAGE Computer system. This computer is what provided North America's air defense until the early 80's. When I look at today's computers I am always amazed at how far we've come! The Q-7, which had over half a million vacuum tubes, had a core memory that was the size of two refridgerators and contained a whopping 250kb (that's 1/4 MB) of what we call "RAM" today. This system was housed in a huge block house with a floor footprint the size of a football field! Now, the thing I carry in my pocket (iPhone) is a thousand times more powerful. It just boggles the mind.
(This picture is just the maintenance area - not the whole computer). You may have seen some of this harware in movies like BattleStar Galactica, Independence day and even Austin Powers because Hollywood bought some of this stuff with all the lights on it when the Air Force finally closed them down.
(This picture is just the maintenance area - not the whole computer). You may have seen some of this harware in movies like BattleStar Galactica, Independence day and even Austin Powers because Hollywood bought some of this stuff with all the lights on it when the Air Force finally closed them down.
Having come from that same era of mainframe computing, I share your amazement! When I think of hundreds of tape and disk drives back then, compared to the massive-yet-compact storage capacity of today's notebooks, or comparing the cost of leasing IBM 370 mainframes to the cost of buying a personal computer today that is far more advanced, it's fascinating! We've truly come a long way!
I'm not sure what "innovations" you're talking about, cars are largely the same as they have been for the last 60 years with some efficiency improvements, which is similar to computer development. Do you think we'll just suddenly jump from current computing to Matrix or Minority Report style? These things take time to develop and become consumer ready.
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MOD NOTE:
It's fine to discuss the pros and cons of democracy as a system of government, but it has to be done in the PRSI section of the forums.
Carry on.
It's fine to discuss the pros and cons of democracy as a system of government, but it has to be done in the PRSI section of the forums.
Carry on.
In the late 70s, I visited a SAGE facility. As you said, three football field sized floors, one just for generators, one for the giant tube based computer, and one for the operators who used a light pistol (not pen) to point on a screen at incoming Soviet planes for our fighters to intercept.
What really sticks in my mind was the situation room, a small circular theatre where the officers in charge could run the defense efforts. The only electronic item in the whole room was a basketball-game-type scoreboard to show how many attackers and defenders we had left... and there was a platform in the middle of it all for someone to stand with an overhead projector and draw things with a felt pen on plastic. (!)
That was it. No giant color screens. No fancy computers. Just an overhead projector.
When the 1983 movie WarGames came out, with its depiction of a cool situation room which was far advanced from what the military had in real life, the Pentagon was embarrassed to death and quickly moved to get rid of the old SAGE installations and try to bring the computers and situation rooms into at least the 1980s!
The point is, perhaps we should look to Hollywood for ideas of where computers might go in the future. From WarGames to Minority Report to IronMan , Star Trek, and others, we seem to see predictions of abilities that eventually come true, abeit never exactly like they imagined.