The new Mac mini is almost certainly coming

[theluggage]

One could argue the 2018 Space Grey Mac mini was "just a box that you tuck under your display" and yet Apple spent ten full minutes discussing it at the October event.

Well that was a machine being upgraded after 4 years. The 2018 Mini had a completely different internal design - using desktop-class(ish) processors rather than mobile ones, SSD instead of spinning rust, TB3 instead of TB2... and was being re-positioned as a more "pro" device (with a price hike to match). They certainly didn't spend 10 minutes talking about the space grey case (which was otherwise the same as the 2014).

Apple could conceivably add additional USB4 ports via an external controller. The Mac Studio Max Edition has two front-facing USB4 ports in addition to four TB4 ports and I am not sure the Max can support 2xUSB-A, 2xUSB4 and 4xTB4 so those two USB4 ports might need to be driven by an external controller

An external USB 3 controller still needs at least one spare PCIe lane from the processor - two for USB4. There's no evidence that the base M2 can support that.

 

[CWallace]

So then what are our options?

1. The Mac mini is now End of Life as a product line and when the remaining stock reaches a certain level, they will announce as such via Press Release.
2. The M2 Mac mini looks just like the M1 Mac mini and Apple is holding it for a future event. The leaked CAD drawings of a new design were a "Tiger Trap" by Apple to identify leakers and was never intended to actually go into production.
3. The leaked CAD drawings are real and are for a "Mac mini Max" that will be only available with M2 Pro and M2 Max because that is required to support the number of ports. This will mean the most powerful mini will have less internal cooling volume than the least powerful model (which would stay in the old case), but hopefully Apple has an innovate cooling system to prevent the SoCs from thermally throttling under higher loads.

 

[now i see it]

4. M2 mini will look exactly like current mini and get a spec bump.

 

[Boyd01]

5. They will continue to sell the 2018 Mini as a nod to the people who still need Intel?

 

[EugW]

5. They will continue to sell the 2018 Mini as a nod to the people who still need Intel?

They could do that whether or not they release an ASi model that replaces it.

However, my expectation is that they'll discontinue the Intel model sooner rather than later. If I does stick around, I don't see it sticking around past 2023.

 

[CWallace]

4. M2 mini will look exactly like current mini and get a spec bump.

That is #2 - "The M2 Mac mini looks just like the M1 Mac mini and Apple is holding it for a future event."

5. They will continue to sell the 2018 Mini as a nod to the people who still need Intel?

I am very confident that there will not be any Macs with "Intel Inside" sold as new after 2023.

 

[southerndoc]

Curious how long before the M2 makes it into the Mac mini.

 

[Nicole1980]

1. The leaked CAD drawings are real and are for a "Mac mini Max" that will be only available with M2 Pro and M2 Max because that is required to support the number of ports. This will mean the most powerful mini will have less internal cooling volume than the least powerful model (which would stay in the old case), but hopefully Apple has an innovate cooling system to prevent the SoCs from thermally throttling under higher loads.

The current mini case has well more internal volume than the current 14" macbook pro case, which is able to handle the m1pro and m1max just fine. No 'innovative' cooling needed:

Mac Mini: 1.4x7.7x7.7 = 83 square inches
14" Macbook pro: .61x12.31x8.71 = 65 square inches

Anybody who says the mac mini is 'tiny' obviously hasn't had one on their desk.

 

[theluggage]

The Mac mini is now End of Life as a product line and when the remaining stock reaches a certain level, they will announce as such via Press Release.

It's always possible - I wouldn't have called the 27" iMac getting axed - but I doubt it. I get the impression that the M1 Mini was quite popular and a bit of a renaissance for the Mini.

Second worst case scenario is that the M1 Mac Mini goes without an update for a few years - (e.g. 2014-2018).

...as for the remaining Intel Mac Mini - my wild guess is that it will be quietly axed shortly after they replace the 2019 Mac Pro with the teased Apple Silicon version. Reason - the countdown to dropping Intel support from MacOS can't start until Apple have stopped selling Intel Macs.

The M2 Mac mini looks just like the M1 Mac mini and Apple is holding it for a future event. The leaked CAD drawings of a new design were a "Tiger Trap" by Apple to identify leakers and was never intended to actually go into production.

As I have said - the Mac Studio makes it look like they have committed to the old Mac Mini design language. There's no need for "tiger trap" theories - people said that about the leaked schematics for the 16" MBP, but turns out they were on the money. Apple surely designs and rejects prototypes that never see the market.

The leaked CAD drawings are real and are for a "Mac mini Max" that will be only available with M2 Pro and M2 Max because that is required to support the number of ports. This will mean the most powerful mini will have less internal cooling volume than the least powerful model (which would stay in the old case), but hopefully Apple has an innovate cooling system to prevent the SoCs from thermally throttling under higher loads.

There's certainly a hole in the lineup for a M? Pro Mini/Studio to replace the i5/i7 Mini. Whether it would come in a Studio form factor or a Mini form factor who knows (looks likely that you could fit the Studio ports in a mini-size case if you didn't need the extra height for cooling - OTOH the Studio Max already has a cheaper cooler than the Studio ultra)

Now we don't know what a M? to M? Pro upgrade would cost - but it's $700 from the 8G M1 13: MBP to the 16GB M1 Pro and that includes other4 "upgrades" like a better screen and more storage...

So add that $700 to the $700 cost of a base level M1 Mini and you get $1400 - but remember we were ignoring the screen and storage upgrade that you get with the MacBook - so it could be somewhat lower. Ultimately, we can't actually predict the price of a M? Pro Mini but the $1099/$1299 price points of the Intel Minis aren't too unfeasible.

However, having a M? Max Mini alongside the Studio doesn't make any sense - first, what would be the difference? It's mainly the SoC that determines the speed and I/O capabilities of these machines. Second, we *do* know the all-other-things-equal cost of a M1 Pro to M1 Max upgrade from MacBook Pro prices - $500 for the processor + $400 for the compulsory RAM upgrade. So even if Apple priced the M? Pro Mini as low as $1099 that would leave the M? Max Mini at $1999 - exactly the same price as the Studio. As I said - there's a M? Pro-shaped hole in the lineup - but there's no corresponding M? Max hole.

Also, a M2 Max Mini/Studio would effectively be an upgrade of the Studio released just a few months ago. That's not due for a while.

My guess is that we'll see a regular M2 Mini at some stage and that will satisfy at least some of the people wanting something between a M1 and a M1 Max.

That said, we really don't know if there is even going to be M2 Pro, Max and Ultras - the first M1 Pro machines aren't a year old yet so they could probably all wait for 3nm...

 

[CWallace]

That said, we really don't know if there is even going to be M2 Pro, Max and Ultras - the first M1 Pro machines aren't a year old yet so they could probably all wait for 3nm...

I imagine we will see the full M2 family to match the M1 family (development code names and core configurations have been leaked). I imagine the gating factor to their release will be what process they are fabricated on - be it based on N5 like the M2 or if they wait until TSMC has N3 ready.

There is also that rumored "M2 Duo" that is two M2s connected like the Ultra - that would have enough controllers to drive four TB4 ports...

 

[sublunar]

Because I believe the M2 Mac mini will have a new case and Apple appears to not want to mix announcements of new laptops and desktops in the same event based on the 14/16" MacBook Pro and Mac Studio events.

So they would not announce a new Mac mini design at WWDC because it is a desktop and the MacBook Air and 13" MacBook Pro are laptops.

And they did not announce it at the Mac Studio event because they wanted to focus on both it and the M1 Ultra (and I expect they wanted the Air to be the first M2 model announced).

I think if Apple was going to release an M1 Pro in a Mac mini, they would have done so. I believe the M1 family line is now complete and now all the new and updated Macs will be on M2 family SoCs.

I would expect a redesign to fix the Wifi and Bluetooth issues that affect some folks in current case design.Yes, there appears to be limited bandwidth in the industrial design team but I also agree that Apple's 'crack' marketing design team also want exclusivity for new designs so don't want multiple new designs at once.

I'm of a mind where this change is only going to increase the price of the Mini though, if there were no redesign at all I'd have said that Apple could have updated it with M2 and called it a day.

In the case of the UK MacBook Pro though, the price has actually gone up by £100 in the UK - the US price appears unchanged.

There is a strong case for retaining the same design though:

1. Pressure from Colocation guys who have their data centres planned out for the 2018 chassis and don't much care about BT/Wifi issues.
2. Keeping price low by continuing to use the same case.
3. The chance of an M1 Pro/M2 Pro in the future.

Now, if Apple aren't going to use a 'Pro' CPU in the Mini line, and they have a marketing plan that allows for potential price increase, and crucially they have no objections from the co-location guys then they might well proceed with the smaller case.

I guess this might be a shame as the means the cooling solution might be audible but if they decide to include the 10 GPU core version as standard rather than offer a binned 8 core version like in the Air it would mean mini users getting the best possible version of the M2, just like the MBP 13 and previous M1 Mini.

Timeline-wise, though, from a software support viewpoint I'd expect Apple to discontinue the upper SKU mini before MacOS Ventura comes out - it would mean that Apple could then remove support for the 2018 Intel Mini one OS version earlier. Perhaps we could expect to see this Mini launched in August or September at a special event.

So then what are our options?

1. The Mac mini is now End of Life as a product line and when the remaining stock reaches a certain level, they will announce as such via Press Release.
2. The M2 Mac mini looks just like the M1 Mac mini and Apple is holding it for a future event. The leaked CAD drawings of a new design were a "Tiger Trap" by Apple to identify leakers and was never intended to actually go into production.
3. The leaked CAD drawings are real and are for a "Mac mini Max" that will be only available with M2 Pro and M2 Max because that is required to support the number of ports. This will mean the most powerful mini will have less internal cooling volume than the least powerful model (which would stay in the old case), but hopefully Apple has an innovate cooling system to prevent the SoCs from thermally throttling under higher loads.

If they were going to EOL it and they only wanted an Intel option around to keep a certain crowd happy then they'll get rid by September - probably as a post Mac Pro reveal press release.

M2 MacBook Pro 13 doesn't cost any extra with no design changes (although UK and probably Euro prices have risen). If there's no design change then it'll be a shoo-in for release during the Mac Pro reveal I'd have thought. The extra performance surely would close the gap to an M1 Pro CPU Mac.

The third option is where it starts to not make sense. A Max model would compete with the Mac Studio except with an inferior cooling system. A Pro model has very little of a gap to fit in and also endangers the base Mac Studio - why would Apple release a model that will instantly become popular in an aged and flawed (see below) case?

And a thinner redesign surely could have noise implications although I'd expect it to be more radio transparent for Wifi and Bluetooth - the flaw we all discuss in here from time to time. And the elephant in the room is that the Mac Studio apes the current Mac mini - why move away from it now?

I did my calculations on likely cost of an M1 Pro CPU over M1 and guesstimated it at $200 (not including mandatory upgrade to 16Gb and likely 512Gb storage) should Apple wish to sell such an upgrade. The problem is right now there's no M2 Pro/Max/Ultra - it's way too soon - and 'upgrading' an M2 to M1 Pro would look absurd.

So unless the 'next' Mac mini is actually an M1 Pro to replace the upper SKU mini Apple and the M1 Mini continues then I can't see how the Mini gets M1 Pro as BTO upgrade.

The current M1 has enough horsepower to at least match if not overhaul the i5 and i7, never mind the i3 it actually replaced - surely the i5/i7 Mini can't still be around because it's more powerful than the M1 and Intel have long since stopped taking orders for it.

 

[saulinpa]

5. They will continue to sell the 2018 Mini as a nod to the people who still need Intel?

The current 8th generation Coffee Lake CPUs that are used in the 2018 mini were supposed to be discontinued in 2021. I don't know what happened but Intel still has them in the "launched" status so no idea when they will be dropped. Apple is not likely to do a redesign for new Intel CPUs. As long as Intel keeps shipping chips Apple can keep selling them. I go along with the theory that they will be dropped when the Intel Mac Pro is dropped.

 

[EugW]

The current 8th generation Coffee Lake CPUs that are used in the 2018 mini were supposed to be discontinued in 2021. I don't know what happened but Intel still has them in the "launched" status so no idea when they will be dropped. Apple is not likely to do a redesign for new Intel CPUs. As long as Intel keeps shipping chips Apple can keep selling them. I go along with the theory that they will be dropped when the Intel Mac Pro is dropped.

I'm sure Intel will sell whatever the customer wants, as long as the customer pays enough money and generates enough volume to justify production.

However, I can't see Apple shipping large volumes of this model for much longer. If the Intel Mac mini isn't dead in 2022, it will likely be dead by 2023. 2023 will be 3 years after the introduction of Apple Silicon, and that should be long enough.

 

[arkmannj]

Man, I wish Apple would have released the M2 Mac Mini.

I’d like to finally replace our old 2011 Mac Mini (Server edition). It’s been upgraded a few times (upgraded RAM, 2x SSD, running Ubuntu) and still plugs along but I’m still itching to upgrade to something that will be a bit more powerful and sip less power along the way.

I’ve waited this long, I’m sure an M1 would be great but if the M2 Mac Mini would inky be a few months away I can hold on a little longer.

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

Though I'd like the original to be replaced, my gut tells me that they'll keep existing M1 Mini and introduce an M2 version with a new design for more money. Why? For the same reason they're keeping the M1 MacBook Air; it's still a very good product. Plus it will be an incentive for customers to spend more for the new enclosure.

 

[gusping]

Though I'd like the original to be replaced, my gut tells me that they'll keep existing M1 Mini and introduce an M2 version with a new design for more money. Why? For the same reason they're keeping the M1 MacBook Air; it's still a very good product. Plus it will be an incentive for customers to spend more for the new enclosure.

Hopefully the price increase is less outrageous for the M2 mini. The new M2 MacBooks are pretty horrible value imo (especially the new MBA vs the M1 MBA). Granted, inflation is crazy atm, so it was not a surprise when they announced the increased prices.

 

[sublunar]

Though I'd like the original to be replaced, my gut tells me that they'll keep existing M1 Mini and introduce an M2 version with a new design for more money. Why? For the same reason they're keeping the M1 MacBook Air; it's still a very good product. Plus it will be an incentive for customers to spend more for the new enclosure.

There’s not much value that Apple can add this stage, they can’t really get away with a $200 uplift for A redesigned radio transparent case. The only thing I can think is that they’d do it if the base SKU was 512Gb storage and they lift the price up that way To increase the average selling price.

but if they are keeping the M1 around then a case redesign is surely pointless, especially with the Mac studio around.

 

[EugW]

There’s not much value that Apple can add this stage, they can’t really get away with a $200 uplift for A redesigned radio transparent case. The only thing I can think is that they’d do it if the base SKU was 512Gb storage and they lift the price up that way To increase the average selling price.

but if they are keeping the M1 around then a case redesign is surely pointless, especially with the Mac studio around.

I'd pay $200 more simply for M2 and more USB ports.

ie.

M2
More ports
512 GB storage
16 GB RAM
$1299

or

M2
More ports
512 GB storage
24 GB RAM
$1499

 

[Nicole1980]

Though I'd like the original to be replaced, my gut tells me that they'll keep existing M1 Mini and introduce an M2 version with a new design for more money. Why? For the same reason they're keeping the M1 MacBook Air; it's still a very good product. Plus it will be an incentive for customers to spend more for the new enclosure.

Forget M2, I want the M1pro Mac Mini

 

[EugW]

Forget M2, I want the M1pro Mac Mini

Why specifically?

 

[Nicole1980]

Why specifically?

Because the M1pro is better than the M2. https://www.macworld.com/article/785824/m2-vs-m1-pro-max-ultra-performance-graphics.html

And the Mac Mini - in it's current form - could easily handle the thermals. Heck it could easily handle the M1max

 

[EugW]

Because the M1pro is better than the M2. https://www.macworld.com/article/785824/m2-vs-m1-pro-max-ultra-performance-graphics.html

And the Mac Mini - in it's current form - could easily handle the thermals. Heck it could easily handle the M1max

Yeah, but my question is more about what you're planning on doing with it. What specifically are you needing, and if you need more than what an M2 can offer, why aren't you getting the Mac Studio? Just curious.

 

[Nicole1980]

Yeah, but my question is more about what you're planning on doing with it. What specifically are you needing, and if you need more than what an M2 can offer, why aren't you getting the Mac Studio? Just curious.

Price honey. Whatever the M1pro Mini is priced at will certainly be lower than the Studio. I think the M1pro is the baseline for kickass professional work at this point (premiere, etc) and I already have an M1pro 14 inch macbook pro. So to get a mini that is any less than that would feel ... well ... just lame.

And honestly, there really is no reason (or excuse - if you will) why Apple doesn't put an M1pro and M1max in the Mac Mini.

The thing about that Mac Mini enclosure is that it could handle SO much more than just the dinky M2. It's like a total waste of space.

 

[sevoneone]

Price honey. Whatever the M1pro Mini is priced at will certainly be lower than the Studio. I think the M1pro is the baseline for kickass professional work at this point (premiere, etc) and I already have an M1pro 14 inch macbook pro. So to get a mini that is any less than that would feel ... well ... just lame.

And honestly, there really is no reason (or excuse - if you will) why Apple doesn't put an M1pro and M1max in the Mac Mini.

The thing about that Mac Mini enclosure is that it could handle SO much more than just the dinky M2. It's like a total waste of space.

I think Apple has made a pretty clear line that they intend $2k to be the entry point into the professional version of the silicon. There were leaks before and after the release of the Studio that showed they considered an M1Pro version of it before releasing the M1Max as a base. I'm sure the reasoning was many that would have bought the M1Pro version would buy the M1Max if it was the only option. I think that is a pretty big miscalculation and that there are far more people like yourself not willing to buy more than they absolutely need when the economy has been flashing a big question mark.

I also think there are a lot of independent photographers, graphic designers and students where spending $3,000 all up for a well powered desktop and new display would have been a no questions asked, shut up and take my money, done deal. Instead, they're all hemming and hawing about finding the best deal, getting a refurb Mac mini for now and just save the money waiting for a better Mac mini that isn't coming any time soon, or seeing the $200 off sales on the 14" and 16" MBPs and deciding they'll just do that and get a cheap $400 4k monitor. All of them handing Apple around $2,000 when they would have happily handed over $3,000.

 

[Heat_Fan89]

And honestly, there really is no reason (or excuse - if you will) why Apple doesn't put an M1pro and M1max in the Mac Mini.

Umm, sure there are at least 1999 reasons to get you to buy a Mac Studio. We've seen this Apple marketing game played too many times before.