A new report says otherwise and says Apple secure 3nm for 2022.
https://www.gizmochina.com/2021/08/16/apple-secure-majority-tsmc-3nm-over-intel/#:~:text=Apple secures majority of TSMC's 3nm production capacity over Intel: Report,-By&text=While TSMC is on track,has been secured by Apple.
People who buy laptops for gaming will never get a Mac but people who only code, do software engineering and have creative/content creation and audio/music production needs will consider a Mac.
I suspect that the two reports are grasping different parts of the elephant (one grasps the trunk and calls it a 'snake' and the other grasps the leg and calls it a 'tree' ). The relatively low volume HPC GPU component and very high priced server 3nm parts are "most of the volume" when volume is low and not most of the volume when 3nm is running at full steam high volume production.
It doesn't make sense for TSMC to stiff any of the high end customers they have. Apple isn't that special ( that is why Apple is paying lots of money upfront. Paying upfront doesn't make them special. Just means they paid early. Anyone else with a large enough stack of money probably can get most of what Apple is getting. )
The 2023 Intel grabbing a bigger chunk for volume production for ArrowLake in 2023 lines up with the ArrowLake timeline.
The core problem issue is that neither article reflect the whole lifecycle of the N3 process very well.
If there are 4-5 "big" customers ramping up for major volume products on N3, then Apple will we walking a thinner road on the ramp. It is probably not too thin but mistakes by Apple will likely not be amenable to just 'buying" their way out of . They are more likely going to cost time ( i.e., time to market ).
You have to remember Macbook sales were decent when Apple had horrible themals, bad cpus and gpus and bad keyboards.
Now all those are going to be fixed later this year for the high end MacBooks. MacBook sales will go up. This will not be some silent site refresh like in the past for the Macbook pro like how the 16" Intel Mac was announced. Apple will have an event for these M1X Macs. Apple will have all of November, December and January before Alder Lake even launches. Even then Alder Lake won't be as efficient as M1X.
A couple of issues.
1. a one time "dog and pony" show isn't going to fundamentally change sales one way or the other over the long term. More likely it will cause a supply/demand mismatch that time shifts a minirity amount of sales to "sooner" rather than "later". There will be a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) and several opportunites for scalpers to make a buck... but more sales over a 12-18 month period ? Probably not.
If it is a good product it will sell well. That is
far more important than the "dog and pony" show.
2. You're presuming that Apple doesn't toss away thermal cooling capacity by making the updated enclosure thinner ( e.g., the iMac 24" ). It wasn't so much that CPUs they had were "bad" as much as Apple designed the thermals of the enclosure to be "just enough" big enough for the nominal state of the CPU. Not designing for upper edge cases or giving themselves some 'slack' to deal with the "unexpected".
Applying that "minimally large enough" thermals to a M1X will likely lead to similar "bad" thermals just at different levels.
3. Windows laptops will continue to run Windows natively with or without Alder Lake mobile models. ( the desktop variants will show up first in 2021 ). Many of them will have removable RAM DIMMs and SSD drives. They have a selection of USB ports that people use daily.
Apple is suppose to be bringing back HDMI , power socket, and SD card ports, but only at price points the vast majority of the overall PC laptop market doesn't want to pay.
Apple will probably do incrementally better but probably wont "take over" the general PC laptop market. Price will be an issue and frankly they won't be able order that many chips if they even wanted to.
For the people who buy ultrabooks by the time Intel launches the successor to Alder Lake, M2 will come out.
Intel has serious competition now and its not just from Apple. Qualcomm with Nuvia will also be annoying for Intel.
And M2 still won't natively boot Windows (what most people have ) . Or be IT repair friendly . or .....
To a large extent Intel's solutions don't have to be overall faster,. They primarily need to be at least "good enough" (primarily as an upgrade to what folks currently have) and priced to match the market. Intel's margins will likely go down before they start to loose a critical amount of market share. Are they going to loose some share? Yes. Most of it? If the Windows 11 optimizations work well and no hiccups on production ... then probably not.
Qualcomm/Nuvia will be coming on Windows 11 also. It won't be surprising to see the Samsung/AMD mash up become a player in Windows 11 in late 2022 or early 2023 also. And AMD is going to be around also.
But that is a dual edge sword that doesn't necessarily go all Apple's way. Windows 11 is going to have a diverse ecosystem of suppliers. macOS won't.
Of course time will tell but interesting times ahead for the laptop/desktop industry.
The pandemic triggers a large uptick in system purchases over last 18 months. At some point that huge demand surge is going to be followed by a demand drop (from average levels). "Growling" into a falling market will be harder in late 2022-2024. How that intersects with the changes with the base technology coming will be interesting.
It isn't just hardware that is changing. Software wise also. If the Windows 11 more rigorous standards get that platform substantively more stable user experience that will make them more competitive. ( as opposed to the quirky stuff that Vista and Win8 introduced. )