If the next Mac processor truly has 2 efficiency cores only, that does seem to point to a different architecture. 'Pro' users would likely have more background tasks than consumers, not less, so having less cores dedicated to them wouldn't make a lot of sense. Specially for MacBooks. More performance cores simply doesn't make up for that.
Or, the stuff that goes on in the background IS the heavy lifting! Dithering around in the user interface isn't that demanding after all. My point is that Apple should have a fair idea how their computers are actually used through collected data, and could let that influence the configuration of the SoC for reasons that are not obvious if you lack said information.
The Metal API for raytracing is also a good point. The API was introduced last year, an there's no hardware support yet. The WWDC seems like a good moment to talk about the new hardware support for this API. They could skip that now, and talk about that in september, but then the iPhones would be realeased with no games using the hardware raytracing. It's not the kind of feature you can 'casually' add to an app. And then the M2 MacBook Airs would have it, but not the MacBook Pros... which would be weird. Raytracing can be a very useful tool in many 'Pro' workflows.
For Apples iOS devices (their by far main business), and consumer Macs, raytracing is a horribly inefficient way to adress reflection corner cases and to produce somewhat better (arguable) ambient occlusion in games. Dedicating silicon area to such ends makes no sense at all for pretty much any of their devices or users.
It
could make sense for for machines that actually do the content creation side of rendering. Which could be a justification to have a separate GPU solution for their highest end workstations, if that is a market Apple wants to compete in. That's possible, but it seems like a difficult market for Apple to adress directly - submitting work to a rendering box/farm that returns the finished results to the Mac seems to be a quite competitive, and a lot more flexible.
Why? We don't know how Apple does things with Apple Silicon processors (for Mac). We have ONE data point. We can't extrapolate anything from that.
This is very true.
Johny Srouji did say a "family" of SoCs for the Mac for instance, but whether he intended that over time or at any one instant is opaque.
Apple is already covering their high-end iPad, and all consumer oriented Macs with a single SoC. How many more are they likely to produce for the remaining, much smaller, user base? How will they adress niche use cases? At all? We'll simply have to wait and see. Until Apple has shown their hand, it's a speculation free-for-all.