Upgrading to M3 chip

[Hamman93]

I am planning to get a mac with an arm processor because I want to have all the features that it has to offer. However, I am still using an Intel I3 chip that is refurbished. I have no idea what the prices for the M3 chip macs will be. If you still have an intel based processor, consider getting a M3 chip mac. So please save your money so you can buy an M3 chip mac. Apple is thinking of a 2025 cutoff date for intel macs. As of now, there has been no official date if or when this event takes place.

 

[theorist9]

Apple is thinking of a 2025 cutoff date for intel macs.

Source? AFAIK, there have been no credible rumors about when Apple with end support for Intel Macs. We know the latest Intel Macs will at least run Sonoma, which should be supported through ≈Oct 2026.

 

[sack_peak]

I am planning to get a mac with an arm processor because I want to have all the features that it has to offer. However, I am still using an Intel I3 chip that is refurbished. I have no idea what the prices for the M3 chip macs will be. If you still have an intel based processor, consider getting a M3 chip mac. So please save your money so you can buy an M3 chip mac. Apple is thinking of a 2025 cutoff date for intel macs. As of now, there has been no official date if or when this event takes place.

M3 chip will be out within 6 months before April 2024.

Apple refresh chips every 19.5 months

- M1: Nov 2020
- M2: Jun 2022
- M3: Q1 2024

1st Macs to get the refresh are

- Macbook Air 13"/15"
- Macbook Pro 13"
- iMac 24"
- iPad Pro 11"/12.9"

Mac mini will be refreshed with the MBP 14"/16"

Mac Studio with the Mac Pro

 

[dmccloud]

M3 chip will be out within 6 months before April 2024.

Apple refresh chips every 19.5 months

- M1: Nov 2020
- M2: Jun 2022
- M3: Q1 2024

1st Macs to get the refresh are

- Macbook Air 13"/15"
- Macbook Pro 13"
- iMac 24"
- iPad Pro 11"/12.9"

Mac mini will be refreshed with the MBP 14"/16"

Mac Studio with the Mac Pro

Take this with a large grain of salt. One generational shift does not equate to a pattern, and there were delays in getting M2 to market, largely caused by ongoing production slowdowns due to COVID. Whether TSMCs yield rates of 3nm parts has improved and by how much will ultimately determine when we see the first M3 Macs on the market, not the interval between M1 and M2.

 

[sack_peak]

Take this with a large grain of salt. One generational shift does not equate to a pattern, and there were delays in getting M2 to market, largely caused by ongoing production slowdowns due to COVID. Whether TSMCs yield rates of 3nm parts has improved and by how much will ultimately determine when we see the first M3 Macs on the market, not the interval between M1 and M2.

So I am wrong that a M3 will appear before April 2024?

 

[dmccloud]

So I am wrong that a M3 will appear before April 2024?

You can't base the timeline for an M3 release on the interval between M1 and M2. Given that at last report 3nm yields were still lower than yields were for A15/A16/M2, a lot of the 3nm production will be going towards the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max for the time being. Once supply and demand for those phones levels out, Apple will be able to start the production of M3 at scale to even begin preparations for release.

 

[sack_peak]

You can't base the timeline for an M3 release on the interval between M1 and M2. Given that at last report 3nm yields were still lower than yields were for A15/A16/M2, a lot of the 3nm production will be going towards the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max for the time being. Once supply and demand for those phones levels out, Apple will be able to start the production of M3 at scale to even begin preparations for release.

So it will take Apple more than half a year to fulfill A17 Pro chip demand?

 

[dmccloud]

So it will take Apple more than half a year to fulfill A17 Pro chip demand?

Certain SKUs for the 15 Pro and Pro Max were already showing shipping dates on Apple's website for mid-November last Friday. There will be another surge in orders closer to the end of November as the holiday shipping season kicks into high gear. Since 3nm yield is still lower than 5nm/4nm yields at this time in both 2022 and 2021, that means the available supply of silicon for the 15 Pro lineup is even more constrained than last year. Because M1 and M2 were on the same process, the delays were largely tied directly to production capacities at TSMC in the wake of COVID. With the shift to M3, you are dealing with an entirely new process and it's early yield issues (which all new processes have), coupled with what apparently is higher than expected demand (according to some third parties, at least).

 

[sack_peak]

Certain SKUs for the 15 Pro and Pro Max were already showing shipping dates on Apple's website for mid-November last Friday. There will be another surge in orders closer to the end of November as the holiday shipping season kicks into high gear. Since 3nm yield is still lower than 5nm/4nm yields at this time in both 2022 and 2021, that means the available supply of silicon for the 15 Pro lineup is even more constrained than last year. Because M1 and M2 were on the same process, the delays were largely tied directly to production capacities at TSMC in the wake of COVID. With the shift to M3, you are dealing with an entirely new process and it's early yield issues (which all new processes have), coupled with what apparently is higher than expected demand (according to some third parties, at least).

You are over stating the fab limitations.

Previous iPhone releases of the past 15 years had similar challenges and they were addressed in a satisfactory manner.

 

[picpicmac]

I have no idea what the prices for the M3 chip macs will be.

I for one doubt that the product prices will move very much, if at all, because of using an M3 instead of an M2 or M1 processor.

Product prices are set by the marketing folk and target demographics.

 

[Queen6]

No, happy enough with my current M1 MBP. If sitting an Intel i3 on release of M3 I'd be more inclined to pickup a smoking deal on an M1/M2 as Either will be like strapping yourself into a spaceship versus an old go-kart with rusted wheel bearings LOL.

Apple will launch the M3 Mac's when it's good and fit to serve it's business needs best.

Q-6

 

[Gudi]

Exactly, there’s no need to wait for M3 when you’re still stuck on Intel. Pick up a good deal on M1/M2. 💻

 

[transmaster]

I am curious, The M3 3nm chip's transistors will be a 16 silicon atoms wide. 2nm 4 is silicon atoms wide, 1nm 2 silicon atom wide. Just how small can a nm sized transistor be and still work?

 

[sack_peak]

I am curious, The M3 3nm chip's transistors will be a 16 silicon atoms wide. 2nm 4 is silicon atoms wide, 1nm 2 silicon atom wide. Just how small can a nm sized transistor be and still work?

The technology node (also process node, process technology or simply node) refers to a specific semiconductor manufacturing process and its design rules. Different nodes often imply different circuit generations and architectures. Generally, the smaller the technology node means the smaller the feature size, producing smaller transistors which are both faster and more power-efficient. Historically, the process node name referred to a number of different features of a transistor including the gate length as well as M1 half-pitch. Most recently, due to various marketing and discrepancies among foundries, the number itself has lost the exact meaning it once held. Recent technology nodes such as 22 nm, 16 nm, 14 nm, and 10 nm refer purely to a specific generation of chips made in a particular technology. It does not correspond to any gate length or half pitch. Nevertheless, the name convention has stuck and it's what the leading foundries call their nodes.

Since around 2017 node names have been entirely overtaken by marketing with some leading-edge foundries using node names ambiguously to represent slightly modified processes. Additionally, the size, density, and performance of the transistors among foundries no longer matches between foundries. For example, Intel's 10 nm is comparable to foundries 7 nm while Intel's 7 nm is comparable to foundries 5 nm.

 

[transmaster]

I have an Mac Studio pro M1 Max. I am perfectly happy with it. When I was assembling my own PC it never used the latest and greatest I saved a lot of money getting Motherboards and such that were up to date but a couple of years old. With a PC these days so much of the work is done by the GPU so that is what you upgrade the most.

 

[transmaster]

The technology node (also process node, process technology or simply node) refers to a specific semiconductor manufacturing process and its design rules. Different nodes often imply different circuit generations and architectures. Generally, the smaller the technology node means the smaller the feature size, producing smaller transistors which are both faster and more power-efficient. Historically, the process node name referred to a number of different features of a transistor including the gate length as well as M1 half-pitch. Most recently, due to various marketing and discrepancies among foundries, the number itself has lost the exact meaning it once held. Recent technology nodes such as 22 nm, 16 nm, 14 nm, and 10 nm refer purely to a specific generation of chips made in a particular technology. It does not correspond to any gate length or half pitch. Nevertheless, the name convention has stuck and it's what the leading foundries call their nodes.

Since around 2017 node names have been entirely overtaken by marketing with some leading-edge foundries using node names ambiguously to represent slightly modified processes. Additionally, the size, density, and performance of the transistors among foundries no longer matches between foundries. For example, Intel's 10 nm is comparable to foundries 7 nm while Intel's 7 nm is comparable to foundries 5 nm.

That is very interesting. So like CPU benchmarks you have to look through all of the bovine scatology to get at the truth.

 

[sack_peak]

I have an Mac Studio pro M1 Max. I am perfectly happy with it. When I was assembling my own PC it never used the latest and greatest I saved a lot of money getting Motherboards and such that were up to date but a couple of years old. With a PC these days so much of the work is done by the GPU so that is what you upgrade the most.

I replace hardware to the next year model after the final security update.

This is typically 9-11 years later.

Another way to do this would be replace after the 3rd party web browser drops support for the OS.

That occurs on the 15th year of the hardware.

This is doable if your use case hardly changes.

If your finances or work depends on replacing every 4 years or 5-6 years then do so.

 

[sack_peak]

That is very interesting. So like CPU benchmarks you have to look through all of the bovine scatology to get at the truth.

That's why I just lengthen replacement cycle.

After a 10-15 years you will notice improvements on raw performance, battery life, performance per watt and power consumption.

By 2027, EU law will impose all devices with batteries to be user replaceable. So you could use any device up to 15 years or longer.

My guess would be over 80% of all 1st owners of Apple devices will not put up with that to that degree. Natural wear and tear, OS support and wanting something up to date will induce replacements far sooner than a decade.

Many parents and other people who hand down their old devices to loved ones will appreciate this.

Like say if I was married with 4 kids this is what I could do when handing down devices. Replace batteries every 3 years.

Family Replacement Cycle	3Y	6Y	9Y
Parents	2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max	2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max	2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max
1st 2 kids phones	2022 iPhone 14 Pro Max	2021 iPhone 13 Pro Max	2020 iPhone 12 Pro Max
Last 2 kids phones	2021 iPhone 13 Pro Max	2019 iPhone 11 Pro Max	2017 iPhone 8 Plus
1st 2 kids sold phones	2020 iPhone 12 Pro Max	2017 iPhone 8 Plus	2014 iPhone 6 Plus
Last 2 kids sold phones	2019 iPhone 11 Pro Max	2015 iPhone 6s Plus	2011 iPhone 4s

 

[transmaster]

One area that has really changed for me after I purchased the Mac Studio I realized that on a laptop unless you have a specific reason for having them you do not need that many ports on a MacBook. The MacBook Air now looks real attractive.

 

[sack_peak]

One area that has really changed for me after I purchased the Mac Studio I realized that on a laptop unless you have a specific reason for having them you do not need that many ports on a MacBook. The MacBook Air now looks real attractive.

This is how I would transition the I/O ports from 2015 to 2025 MBP to avoid donglegate.

​

Year​	MagSafe​	SDXC​	HDMI​	TB3/TB4/USB4/TB5​	TB2​	USB 3.1​	Total USB ports​	Chip Die Shrink​
2015​	1​	1​	1​	-​	2​	2​	4​	22nm​
2016​	1​	1​	1​	1​	1​	2​	4​	14nm​
2017​	1​	1​	1​	1​	1​	2​	4​	14nm​
2018​	1​	1​	1​	1​	1​	2​	4​	14nm​
2019​	1​	1​	1​	2​	-​	2​	4​	14nm​
2020​	1​	1​	1​	2​	-​	2​	4​	10nm​
2021​	1​	1​	1​	2​	-​	2​	4​	5nm​
2022​	1​	1​	1​	3​	-​	1​	4​	5nm​
2023​	1​	1​	1​	3​	-​	1​	4​	5nm​
2024​	1​	1​	1​	3​	-​	1​	4​	3nm​
2025​	1​	1​	1​	4​	-​	-​	4​	3nm​

​

I'd have the thicker and thermally superior 2021 & 2023 MBP 14"/16" body design be used as early as 2015.

This would reduce the thermal throttling of the 14nm Intel chips with larger & better fans and have space for more battery.

If anyone requires even 1 USB-A port by 2025 they can fall back on the 2024 model that would receive its final Security Update by 2034. If they're willing to use a 3rd party browser they can extend it to 2039.

By the mid & late 30s I doubt over 99% of any 1st owner Mac user will miss USB-A ports. At minimum all the ports would be USB-C 120Gbps.

 

[Boil]

...there’s no need to wait for M3...

Hardware ray-tracing...! ;^p

 

[dmccloud]

You are over stating the fab limitations.

Previous iPhone releases of the past 15 years had similar challenges and they were addressed in a satisfactory manner.

How does relying on verified reports equate to "overstating" current limitations? The 14 Pro and Pro Max were heavily constrained until January of this year, and that was on an existing process with consistently higher yields than what TSMC is currently producing with the new 3nm process. There are also the reports that M3 will actually use an updated version of the 3nm process (A17 uses N3B, M3 is rumored to use N3E), which could also affect production yields and availability. I think you're too reliant on the M1 to M2 interval and view it as a hard and fast rule, even though it's impossible to figure out a long-term release schedule based on only one generational change of the lineup.

 

[biker4mac]

M3 chip will be out within 6 months before April 2024.

Apple refresh chips every 19.5 months

- M1: Nov 2020
- M2: Jun 2022
- M3: Q1 2024

1st Macs to get the refresh are

- Macbook Air 13"/15"
- Macbook Pro 13"
- iMac 24"
- iPad Pro 11"/12.9"

Mac mini will be refreshed with the MBP 14"/16"

Mac Studio with the Mac Pro

Whether the dates are realistic or not, it ends up being somewhat awe inspiring to actually see a roadmap of any sort from Apple for computer updates! For at least the past decade one never knew if an update for a certain model was coming - particularly for desktops. The Mac Pro went four years before an update - after six years between updates before that. The Mac Mini has been updated between two and four years apart. Now they pretty much started teasing about the M3 a few weeks after the M2 Studio and M2 Mac Pro were released.

I'm somewhat concerned about what's going to happen with an annual update cycle for computers - along with the move of so much software to subscriptions. @sack_peak's talk of a ten to fifteen year replacement cycle may be moot if none of your software subscriptions will support hardware more than a few generations old.

I'm also not particularly pleased with the move to integrated GPUs, memory, and storage. Upgrading a graphics card, adding memory, and adding storage after a few years was always a good, economical way to give new life to a machine a few years old - not to mention that I've had to replace memory and storage as it has gone bad over time.

 

[sack_peak]

Whether the dates are realistic or not, it ends up being somewhat awe inspiring to actually see a roadmap of any sort from Apple for computer updates! For at least the past decade one never knew if an update for a certain model was coming - particularly for desktops. The Mac Pro went four years before an update - after six years between updates before that. The Mac Mini has been updated between two and four years apart. Now they pretty much started teasing about the M3 a few weeks after the M2 Studio and M2 Mac Pro were released.

The disrupted refresh cycles tend to fall into these categories

- part is not at the price point or design target of the Apple (7 years delay of AMOLED on the iPhone & 3+ years delay of larger iMac)
- lack of demand (2013, 2019 & 2023 Mac Pro & iPhone mini)

I'm somewhat concerned about what's going to happen with an annual update cycle for computers - along with the move of so much software to subscriptions. @sack_peak's talk of a ten to fifteen year replacement cycle may be moot if none of your software subscriptions will support hardware more than a few generations old.

The ~10 year support is based on the Macs prior to 2017 & the additional 5 years of 3rd party browser support for the final macOS Security Update. If you do not want to use Chrome or Firefox then replace to the next year model by year 9 point something.

macOS Intel version​	Latest update​	Final Security Update​	iMac​	Macbook Pro​	Macbook Air​	Mac Pro​	Mac mini​	iMac Pro​	Macbook​
2025 macOS 16​	To Be Released​	2028​	2020​	2020​	2020​	2019​	-​	?​	-​
2024 macOS 15​	To Be Released​	2027​	2019​	2019​	2019​	2019​	-​	2017​	-​
2023 Sonoma​	Sep 2023​	2026​	2019​	2018​	2018​	2019​	2018​	2017​	-​
2022 Ventura​	Sep 2023​	2025​	2017​	2017​	2018​	2019​	2018​	2017​	2017​
2021 Monterey​	Sep 2023​	2024​	2015​	2015​	2015​	2013​	2014​	2017​	2016​
2020 Big Sur​	Sep 2023​	2023​	2014​	2013​	2013​	2013​	2014​	2017​	2015​
2019 Catalina​	Jul 2022​	2022​	2012​	2012​	2012​	2013​	2012​	2017​	2015​
2018 Mojave​	Jul 2021​	2021​	2012​	2012​	2012​	2013​	2012​	2017​	2015​
2017 High Sierra​	Nov 2020​	2020​	2009​	2010​	2010​	2010​	2010​	2017​	2009​
2016 Sierra​	Sep 2019​	2019​	2009​	2010​	2010​	2010​	2010​	-​	2009​
2015 El Capitan​	Jul 2018​	2018​	2007​	2007​	2008​	2008​	2009​	-​	2008​
2014 Yosemite​	Jul 2017​	2017​	2007​	2007​	2008​	2008​	2009​	-​	2008​
2013 Mavericks​	Jul 2016​	2016​	2007​	2007​	2008​	2008​	2009​	-​	2008​
2012 Mountain Lion​	Aug 2015​	2015​	2007​	2007​	2008​	2008​	2009​	-​	2008​
2007 Leopard​	Aug 2009​	2009​	2003​	2002​	-​	2001​	2005​	-​	2003​
2005 Tiger​	Nov 2007​	2007​	1999​	2000​	-​	1999​	2005​	-​	2000​

By comparison since 2007 Windows Vista Microsoft has provided Software Support for 122 months.

Depending on device

- iOS is 100-112 months long
- iPadOS is 8-10 years long

For majority of 1st owners/users with the means to replace the device should do so before the final Security Update.

If you are using a hand me down or bought used should ignore what I recommend.

For the vast majority of persons SaaS is a cash flow blessing from God. Many pirate software because it costs hundreds or even thousand of dollars that few can afford up front.

Being able to pay $10-20/month for Lightroom or Office makes it accessible to many persons.

I'm also not particularly pleased with the move to integrated GPUs, memory, and storage. Upgrading a graphics card, adding memory, and adding storage after a few years was always a good, economical way to give new life to a machine a few years old - not to mention that I've had to replace memory and storage as it has gone bad over time.

That's the direction the whole industry is going towards to. Even Nvidia's doing SoCs.

The mass market consumer rarely, if ever, lift the hood and replace SODIMM, NVMe SSD, GPUs, CPUs or motherboards these days.

That's what minority of buyers do.

When Qualcomm's attempt for Windows 11 on ARM laptops actually works then expect Intel, AMD & even Nvidia to replicate the cost savings of SoC PCs to maintain margins.

When that occurs swappable part PCs will experience price hikes after price hikes as economies of scales worsen due to shrinking demand.

 

[FreakinEurekan]

M3 chip will be out within 6 months before April 2024.

Apple refresh chips every 19.5 months

LOL - based on a data set of 1 you're projecting 19.5 months 🤣

I'm not saying it WON'T be 19.5 months. I have no idea. But the absurdity of it is laughable.