and why would Apple only put 12 cores (I agree 8P and 4E are likely) in ANY desktop computer? Given current TDP of Apple’s existing silicon, that 12 core part is a 15watt chip. Is the 12 core MP using a 15watt chip?
The Mini has been thermal constrained for a while. It is also price constrained. A new Mini with 8 P cores is still 2 cores better than it has now. A 12 core SoC will be cheaper to make than a 18 core one and Apple is probably going to want to increase or lower the Mini price all that much. Apple passing up a opportunity for "thinner and lighter" probably has decent traction in the Mini and iMac space. To go back to some of the Mac Pro 2013 principles and declare "can't innovate my ass" again with a new moniker for the system? They put up a chart saying they were primarily interested in lower power so that would "free up" they ability to "design new systems". That is probably primary where "Apple Silicon" is going. Apple will probably do an "edge case' variant for the Mac Pro (and not necessarily return to the 2013's full constraints ), but it will be anchored on where the base core design being leveraged is trying to go.
The Mac Pro is probably going to use something different. In part, that is why a solution probably isn't coming for another 2 years (and not surprising if doesn't arrive for 2.2-2.5 years). In 2022 starting at 12 cores ( with 8P ) would probably not be competitive. However, the Mac Pro isn't whole desktop line for Apple. It probably isn't even 10% of desktops.
The Mac Pro 2019 is as high a power draw as can get from a normal plug ( in the USA and many other places). So if the discrete GPUs get more greedy with power drawn CPU will need to drop down a bit. There is no more go get if want folks to plug them up most anywhere ( and not only in special provisioned "Machine Rooms" ).
when the Apple Silicon has to drive 12 (or more ) DDR5 DIMMS slots and 72+ PCI-e v4 (v5) lanes , multiple 10GbE feeds , etc. it isn't going to be a double watt chip anymore. The current ARM Neoverse N1 derivaties ( Graviton2 , Ampere , etc.) ) aren't. Apple doesn't have magic pixie dust to do order of magnitude better.
this is the point us “fanboys“ are trying to make!
Which is relatively incomplete. Just can't crank core counts. If don't keep those additional cores feed with data then they aren't going to be effective only workloads which aren't skewed to drop as much into the CPU package cache as they can.
Even accounting for increased over head for tying all the core together, you’re looking at 40+ P-class cores at the current MP thermal limits.
But is Apple really going to make something that big and skewed to P cores for such a small number of users? Apple cut the Mac Pro adrift for 6 years ( 2013 - 2016). It isn't a high volume, high priority target market for them.
Apple has invested a lot in that design so artificially limit their chips to laptop TDPs?
Eh? The primary R&D funding for these cores is iPhones and iPad. Apple is doing a narrow tweak to cover the Mac also, but there is no evidence that this is a whole 'build from scratch" microarchitecture of processors just for the Mac. It has been laptop targeted for a while. Apple and the fanboy chorus has been arm flapping about "desktop class" A-series but it really isn't if not anchored on Intel's woes and execution problems.
What I'm saying is that not done just because take the laptop TDP limiter off. There is very substantive work to do scaling up the I/O. Dealing with a much higher amount of off-chip interactions.
Apple "artificially" limits themselves all the time because they aren't trying to sell everything to everybody. There is no technical limit as to why there is not mid-range xMac ( to fratricide with the iMac systems ). Apple wasn't broke and couldn't assign a team to get a revised Mac Pro out in 2015-17 timeframe ( No they assigned folks to pay more attention to the iMac Pro instead).
If Apple's 14 core solution appears by end of the year and can't do much with a discrete GPU then there really isn't tons of investment evidenced there with respect to the Mac Pro solution space at all.
Other companies like Ampere and Fujitsu have shown it is possible. Do you think Apple is LESS capable?
Fujitsu is not interested in selling at the price points and volume levels that the Mac Pro / iMac Pro sell at. It is much higher priced solution for folks with generally bigger bank accounts. Ampere is a bit of the opposite. High end Mac Pro volume would be quite bad for them. It is too low. For Ampere to work long term they are going to have to sell at least 1/2 dozen system implementors who will buy in bulk.
Amazon will probably get away with relatively low volume and not a high upfront price because they aren't selling any of the Graviton2's. They are renting them. That is a long term reoccurring revenue stream.
In fact each design will increase Apple’s R&D
Increase R&D cost. You seem to think that Apple is going to drain the Scrooge Mc Duck money 'billions' pit with as many Mac SoC designs as possible. That probably isn't true. More costs more likely means that Apple will do fewer , not more, designs.
so my guess is the new Pro will have only a couple of processor tiers starting with lots of cores and then jumping to ridiculous numbers of cores—probably with SVE2 extensions that take AVX512 to task.
Probably not. The much higher the core count the much fewer systems sold. Which means there is fewer of those SoC to amortize fixed costs on. At some point the processors get expensive enough to drive up system costs where just not going to be as competitive. There highly likely will not be a "ridiculous core count" option at all.
macOS can't handle "ridiculous number of cores. Apple probably isn't going to branch-fork just to chase a subset of a subset of the Mac Pro market. The rest of the Mac , iOS , and iPad OS ecosystem can do with the kernel scheduler they have now. So the Mac Pro will very probably be limited to that. ( Linux and Windows have orders of magnitude larger server market ecosystems which make having a separate scheduler for that make it worthwhile to do. The Mac has the Mini as the primary driver of its "server market". it is a completely different scope and unlikely to change much even with the introduction of the rack model Mac Pro. )
The Mac Pro would far more likely get incrementally more cores (and more up clocked P cores ) than just blindly chasing core counts. If Apple got into a core count pissing match, I wouldn't be surprised if they did that with E cores more so than P ones (and still would be capped under 64 count. 32 if added SMT. ).
As far as SVE2 versus AVX512 ... two issues. One that isn't gong to be almost Intel exclusive by late 2022. Second, there are more than just Apple as ARM workstation/server vendors here. This is quite likely one of those "the iPhone/iOS is so far ahead Android will never catch up contexts". Apple may start off selling more ARM workstations than others but in a couple of years they'll get passed up. Apple being only able to sell to Mac Pro ( and iMac Pro ) users is a boat anchor on what they can do in this space. The other players selling to an order of magnitude more users is battle Apple isn't likely to win. So it is bit dubious that they would do a "bet the farm" on trying to do that. They'll do enough to sell enough, but supreme "domination" in the workstation space? That is probably just fanboy hype. There isn't enough money in it for Apple to do that ( in fact good chance they could
loose substantial money trying to do that. )