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Marlon DLTH :)

macrumors 6502
Mar 4, 2020
410
761
I agree with you. I think this is going to be in this way.


For context:
A14- First 5nm Apple’s SOC. It will be available in the iPhone 12 lineup and potentially the iPad Air 4.
A14X- Based on the A14, higher number of cores and power consumption for the iPad Pro.


2H 2020:

13 inch MacBook Pro- A14-based chip (potentially to use the rumored 16 cores chip Apple is working on)
24 inch iMac- Different options, low-consumption chips and medium-consumption chips.

1H 2021:

Mac Mini- Different options, low-consumption chips and medium-consumption chips.
MacBook Air- A14-based chip, similar to the A14X in the iPad Pro.
12 inch MacBook- A14-based low-consumption chip focused on deliver the lightest MacBook.

2H 2021:

30 inch iMac- Different options, medium-consumption chips to high-consumption chips. Based on the A15.
MacBook Pro- A15-based chip, focused on deliver the greatest performance on a MacBook ever.

Mac Pro: Launch in the 1H of 2022, based on the A16 chip, available to the public in the end of the year.

PS: Sorry if I made mistakes, English isn’t my native language
 

AxiomaticRubric

macrumors 6502a
Sep 24, 2010
945
1,154
On Mars, Praising the Omnissiah
While I want that imac now I think this is the order based on integrated graphics vs discrete:

2020 November:
Mac Mini
MacBook Air
MacBook Pro 13”

2021 WWDC:
Apple dGPU support

2021 spring:
iMac 24”
MacBook Pro 16”

2021 fall:
iMac 27"
iMac Pro
Mac Pro


Why is everyone assuming we will get a 13” MacBook Pro with Apple Silicon? Rumors have consistently claimed it will have a 14” screen.
 

semka

macrumors member
Sep 9, 2015
58
40
I think, there is still a chance that they will update 16" MacBook Pro with Intel 10 gen "H" processors this fall.
 

Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,409
17,202
Silicon Valley, CA
- Apple has to account for all of this in marketing the newer Apple Silicon models; every Apple Silicon Mac model has to at least be substantially faster than its fastest possible Intel predecessor in order for that Mac model to be ready to make the jump.

tl;dr: Lower-end Macs are making the jump to Apple Silicon first; the iMac Pros days are numbered, and the clues are all in today's announcements!
While you looked at this from hardware justification aspects, I think the toughest problem will be Apple trying to convince consumer/businesses, that there is a compelling reason for this transition from a software side. Great marketing doesn't magically create lots of native software. If it can't run all the non-native consumers software that's used now, or use some driver within Rosetta 2 for the consumer/business peripherals, that won't create any love for Apple Silicon Macs.
 

PickUrPoison

macrumors G3
Sep 12, 2017
8,131
10,720
Sunnyvale, CA
Very reasonable analysis!

A short note about the iMac Pro — one potential reason why it didn't get a more substantial update is because there was nothing to update it with. Although I agree with you that skipping the nano-texture treatment is at least suspicious.
Well the newer W2200 series Xeons, an RDNA 2 GPU from AMD when they’re ready later this year and miniLED display with the nanotexture screen would be on my wish list for a 1Q2021 iMac Pro. I still believe lol.
 
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burgerrecords

macrumors regular
Jun 21, 2020
222
106
That’s not really the message Apple was emphasizing. What they are trying to say is that they have excellent performance per watt. This doesn’t mean “we will make desktops with low power consumption”. This was more along the lines “we will make faster desktops at similar power consumption”.

Is it a forgone conclusion that Apple silicon will scale to provide additional performance at additional power levels? And if the gpu is limited at the ultra high end, isn’t limiting to just making fast, lower powered chips going to be sufficient for 95% of a much bigger pie?
 

pappkristof

macrumors regular
Aug 1, 2015
149
258
What Apple said is that Macs with Apple Silicon will use Apple GPUs. While I agree that it’s open to interpretation somehow, they also said that Apple Silicon Macs will feature unified memory architecture, which pretty much excludes dedicated GPUs. We’ve spent some time discussing potential practical i,Oli action of this in a number of threads. Personally, I believe that Apple will use in-house designed CPU and GPU across all Macs, with higher end models using HBM as system RAM to make them competitive with dGPUs.

You’re right. Did a little search on unified memory and found this WWDC session:
 

aleni

macrumors 68030
Jun 2, 2006
2,583
910
I'd say the first arm mac would be a laptop for students. Apple need to let a lot of arm macs running in the wild in order to make developers adapt to the new architecture asap. My guess would be a more affordable 12" Macbook for students.
 

Realityck

macrumors G4
Nov 9, 2015
11,409
17,202
Silicon Valley, CA
I'd say the first arm mac would be a laptop for students. Apple need to let a lot of arm macs running in the wild in order to make developers adapt to the new architecture asap. My guess would be a more affordable 12" Macbook for students.
I was thinking earlier also that using the education side of Apple historically has really paid off with testing the waters to acceptance as well as you mentioned inducing educational software developers to port/develope applications to Apple Silicon. Students having a good lightweight laptop can help change perceptions. ?
 
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MacBillUK

macrumors newbie
Sep 9, 2018
18
23
Oxfordshire UK
Given the need for Parallels and/or Bootcamp in some of my workflows I’ll be ignoring Apple Silicon for as long as I can, or until I can see those tools running an least as quickly as they do on my current gear but under Intel emulation.
 

aberamati

macrumors member
Jul 10, 2017
48
42
It would, although the smaller model seems to be more of a general use/ consumer focused machine, while its the 27" that seems to be bought for the more demanding tasks. Assuming the Apple Silicon chip actually could match the current 21.5" in performance anyway, would it matter hugely?

At the moment we're still thinking in Intel product stack terms, but Apple Silicon doesn't necessarily have to mirror that, the chips could be based around meeting the needs of the target market for each product segment:

Basic use: MacBook Air 12" and 14" - A14M

Competent allrounders: MacBook Pro 13"/ iMac 24"/ Mac Mini - A14MX

Powerful machines: MacBook Pro 16"/ iMac 30" - A14M Pro

Professional machines: Mac Pro/ iMac Pro(?) - A14M extreme
The ‘Pro’ CPUs won’t arrive in the coming year, they’re more likely to be A15 based
 

macduke

macrumors G5
Jun 27, 2007
13,473
20,535
My predictions:

  • Autumn 2020: 24” iMac, 13” MacBook (replaces Air)
  • Spring 2021: 14” MacBook Pro, Mac Mini
  • Summer 2021: 16” MacBook Pro and 32” 6K Pro Display (non-XDR) at WWDC
  • Autumn 2021: 32” iMac Pro (replaces both 27” 5K iMac and 27” iMac Pro, uses same display panel as 6K Pro Display above)
  • Summer 2022: Mac Pro at WWDC
I think Apple wants to simplify their Mac lineup and with more control over their hardware, they can dial in their performance more to make an even spread across their lineup. What I’m most unsure about is the larger iMac/iMac Pro and the 6K Pro Display.

I think the 24” iMac serves that space well as an everyday desktop computer. The primary reason, even more so than simplification, that I think the iMacs will be combined on the high end is the new 27” 5K iMac that was unveiled the other day. In many ways it’s just as “Pro” as the iMac Pro currently is, and with the new nano display texture, even more so. I think that’s a sign. Furthermore, moving up in size will necessitate a 6K display and those aren’t cheap. I think the new iMac Pro will start around the higher end of the current 5K iMac, say $2999-3999, with performance similar to a higher end 5K iMac to start and it will go up considerably from there. I think the standalone 32” 6K Pro Display will cost around $1999.

My ideal setup would be a 6K iMac Pro connected to two 6K Pro Displays on either side, a 14” MacBook Pro with reduced bezels, a smaller 12” iPad Pro with reduced bezels, an iPhone Pro without notch that unfolds into an iPad Mini, and a 48mm Apple Watch.
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,517
19,664
Is it a forgone conclusion that Apple silicon will scale to provide additional performance at additional power levels? And if the gpu is limited at the ultra high end, isn’t limiting to just making fast, lower powered chips going to be sufficient for 95% of a much bigger pie?

There are a lot of open question, I’m afraid we’ll have to wait and see what Apple can deliver. They sounded very confident at the WWDC, but who knows, it’s Apple. If you ask me, I have no doubt that can scale up to mid-range but I have no idea how they are supposed to provide higher-end GPUs. Maybe their architecture is just that sackable after all and it’s really just a matter of copying N GPU core clusters. Mo idea.

The only think we can go by are their statements at WWDC and those imply strongly that current dGPUs would be incompatible with Apple Silicon architecture.
 
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Yebubbleman

macrumors 603
Original poster
May 20, 2010
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I’ve also determined if the 2013 27” goes kaput before AS Macs are released, I will also purchase an intel MBP 13” as a stopgap. I am glad we have options. Frankly, I have no idea what to expect but that is fine.

Honestly, that's a solid plan. The 2020 Intel 4-Port 13" MacBook Pro is my next Mac purchase (I'll probably get whatever Apple Silicon equivalent will exist to this machine some two to three years down the road and use both in tandem until Apple stops supporting Intel (in which case, it becomes a Windows 10 PC). My Mac platform dependency has dwindled substantially in the past five years (and Apple's macOS quality control track record since Mountain Lion hasn't exactly had me jazzed about being dependent on it at all, sadly).

If as Tim Cook said the Apple Silicon transition will happen in the next two years surely Apple must have been working on these new Macs for at least two or three years now. I believe this latest iMac refresh is the end of the intel Macs. Would be great to see a 24 Apple Silicon iMac by the end of this year.

I wouldn't be shocked to see one more Intel 16" MacBook Pro and maybe even one last Intel Mac Pro. But as far as literally every other Mac they currently sell is concerned, I 100% agree. We've seen the last Intel launches for all of those.

Oh yeah, that was just exemplary, I'm not sure what they will do as such, it sounds like we will start off with direct equivalents of each Intel machine to begin with, but there's swirling rumours for a few different form factors! I quite like the idea of the Air line being a revived 12" MacBook (with slightly larger 12.5" display or so via reduced bezels) and a 14.1" model, then the 14.1" and 16" MacBook Pros, but it sounds like the 13" Pro is sticking around for a while yet.

I just got a 12" MacBook off of eBay. Crap butterfly keyboard totally aside, the thing is not comfortable to use when not at a desk. The keyboard goes to the edge of the laptop and it makes it a bit awkward to type on when not used on a flat surface. I'm not sure what the obsession is. 13" is much better size.

And yeah, it does seem like the 13" Pro (or at least some other 13" Mac notebook is sticking around, given the rumor mill).

Nothing surprising here really. We knew it was coming from leaked benchmarks but could have predicted what would be in it in terms of 10th gen, T2 etc. Maybe not the exact GPU options but certainly ballpark.

Again, the most surprising elements revolve around what Apple DIDN'T announce. You're right, the 27" iMac got updated as was anticipated. That said, I'm not sure that anyone anticipated that the 21.5" iMac would get left out. That hasn't really ever happened in the history of the 21.5" and 27" iMac pairing.

This is one of the best written posts I’ve seen on these forums in looong time ! THANK YOU!

Many thanks man!

Why is everyone assuming we will get a 13” MacBook Pro with Apple Silicon? Rumors have consistently claimed it will have a 14” screen.

Rumors have claimed that we're getting the 14" screened Mac laptop in 2021 and that a 13" Apple Silicon laptop will launch this year beforehand.

I think, there is still a chance that they will update 16" MacBook Pro with Intel 10 gen "H" processors this fall.

Honestly, I completely agree with you here and I forgot to include that here. I do think that we're gonna get one last Intel 16" MacBook Pro release. I don't expect it to be substantial (we're certainly not likely to get a GPU bump seeing as we're already using AMD's latest). Just 10th Gen and MAYBE the nano-texture display option. They very well could include Wi-Fi 6/802.11ax, but I have a feeling Apple is going to stick with Wi-Fi 5/802.11ac until they jump to Apple Silicon.

I also think we might be in store for one final Intel Mac Pro release, but it likely won't be anything too substantial compared to the 2019 model. Are there even newer Xeon chips suitable for the Mac Pro than what's already in it?

While you looked at this from hardware justification aspects, I think the toughest problem will be Apple trying to convince consumer/businesses, that there is a compelling reason for this transition from a software side. Great marketing doesn't magically create lots of native software. If it can't run all the non-native consumers software that's used now, or use some driver within Rosetta 2 for the consumer/business peripherals, that won't create any love for Apple Silicon Macs.

I think that any developer with a current 64-bit Intel binary will either (a) have that binary work fine under Rosetta 2 and/or (b) be commited enough to the platform to have a universal binary (x86-64 + ARM64) in progress. The only developers that I might worry about are the companies that have specialized in porting Windows/console games to macOS (Aspyr, Feral Interactive, etc.). The Culliing of Catalina (dropping of 32-bit app support) was brutal and a lot of titles that were previously fine in Mojave and earlier were outright discontinued in Catalina. All that to say that if any Mac app survived the jump to Catalina, they're very likely to also survive the jump to Apple Silicon and, at the very least, run fine under Rosetta 2.

Excellent article, thank you!

No, thank you!

Given the need for Parallels and/or Bootcamp in some of my workflows I’ll be ignoring Apple Silicon for as long as I can, or until I can see those tools running an least as quickly as they do on my current gear but under Intel emulation.

I'm more or less with you on this. The ability to virtualize x86 natively is huge for me. Not just for running popular x86 Linux distros that don't yet have an ARM port (looking at you, Ubuntu!), but also Windows, Windows Server, and even Intel versions of macOS. Being able to run VMs of Mojave and even as far back as Snow Leopard will be quite useful. Plus, once Apple drops Intel from future macOS releases, my Intel Macs can still live on as Windows/Linux boxes! I'm planning on getting a 2020 Intel 4-port 13" MacBook Pro and then, 2-3 years down the road, getting an Apple Silicon equivalent machine and using both side by side until the former loses support from Apple. Then again, my dependency on the Mac platform is not what it used to be. Windows, iOS, and iPadOS cover 95% of my needs nowadays...

Conspiracy theory: Apple didn’t put a heat pipe in the MacBook air 2020 to contrast the thermal performance to the new  silicon macs, possibly in the same chassis. it will be a huge selling point.

Heh...I am not sure about them doing that particular thing deliberately...but certainly, the 2018, 2019, and 2020 MacBook Airs using Intel's Y-series processors (and even the 12" MacBooks doing it beforehand) seem to basically be a built-in seller to this transition. The MacBook Airs have always been a touch under-powered in favor of ultraportability; Apple definitely wants a MacBook Air that doesn't have to make that kind of a compromise. And an Apple Silicon 13" notebook will be that notebook.
 
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funkahdafi

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Mar 16, 2009
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2022 WWDC:
Mac Pro

There is no way in hell that ARM based CPUs will match the performance of high end x86 processors like Xeon within just two years. That would "break" Moore's law by such a wide margin that it is next to inconceivable. Even Apple's marketing is limited by physics, not to mention their engineers. And don't forget, high end x86 CPUs will make substantial progress in these two years as well. Not just Intel's Xeon, but also (and probably more importantly) AMD's Epyc.
 
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Yebubbleman

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A quick thought: It's totally possible that the iMac Pro and 27" iMac will merge on the other side of the Apple Silicon transition, which is to say that the resulting iMac will be a decidedly prosumer Mac that can, more or less outclass the iMac Pro AND newly announced 2020 27" iMac. The supposed bigger display size (bezel shrinkage or not) would lend well here. It could be a 6K iMac instead of a 5K iMac. This would leave the 24" Apple Silicon iMac to essentially take over for the 21.5" Intel iMac and any low-end use cases of the 27" Intel iMac. You'd be left with one size of iMac (24") and one size of "iMac Pro" (30-32"). Anyway, just a thought.


There is no way in hell that ARM based CPUs will match the performance of high end x86 processors like Xeon within just two years. That would "break" Moore's law by such a wide margin that it is next inconceivable. Even Apple's marketing is limited by physics, not to mention their engineers. And don't forget, high end x86 CPUs will make substantial progress in these two years as well. Not just Intel's Xeon, but also (and probably more importantly) AMD's Epyc.

The rate at which ARM (and especially Apple's implementation of ARM in Apple Silicon) has advanced would totally make this doable by the end of the two year period. The higher-end Macs are why this won't simply be done in six months. The low-end Macs are ready to jump NOW.
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,517
19,664
There is no way in hell that ARM based CPUs will match the performance of high end x86 processors like Xeon within just two years. That would "break" Moore's law by such a wide margin that it is next to inconceivable. Even Apple's marketing is limited by physics, not to mention their engineers. And don't forget, high end x86 CPUs will make substantial progress in these two years as well. Not just Intel's Xeon, but also (and probably more importantly) AMD's Epyc.

I don’t understand this statement. In terms per core performance, Apple CPUs already outperform Xeons. So this boils down to scaling up the core count. Which in the end depends on whether Apple has the interconnect technology to make a large multi core chip. What does this have to do with Moore’s law?
 

ts1973

macrumors 6502
Nov 11, 2002
307
62
Belgium
Apple has said that all of their GPUs will be integrated. That doesn't mean that they won't make a pro-tier graphics to differentiate the higher-end Macs from the lower-end ones. But I think the days of such graphics disparities are over when the Intel era is. I'm totally cool with that though. Intel's integrated graphics really were a blight on the Intel Mac era at large. Macs that were not 15+" MacBook Pros, iMacs, or Mac Pros really did suffer for it.

Yup. Apple is switching to their own GPUs and they will be integrated (albeit several times more efficient and faster than anything Intel has dreamt of releasing). But they're poised to beat out AMD's best stuff too. Apple's GPUs look like something to look forward to.

Where do you get this ? Although I agree Apple will probably make the better integrated GPU's compared to integrated Intel/AMD, they're a very long way off the dGPU's from nVidia/AMD. I don't see this happening anytime soon!
 
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funkahdafi

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The rate at which ARM (and especially Apple's implementation of ARM in Apple Silicon) has advanced would totally make this doable by the end of the two year period.

Do you have anything to back up your statement or are you just making assumptions? Not trying to boast here, but I know a thing or two about CPU architectures and I don't see how ARM CPUs will be able to match 2022 Xeon/Epyc in such a short timeframe. It would be a miracle, and miracles usually belong to the domain of fairy tales.

Let's stay realistic here. What did Apple say when they announced the transition? "Intel Macs are here to stay for many years to come". 2 years is not what I would consider "many".
 

Yebubbleman

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Where do you get this ? Although I agree Apple will probably make the better integrated GPU's compared to integrated Intel/AMD, they're a very long way off the dGPU's from nVidia/AMD. I don't see this happening anytime soon!

There are WWDC 2020 videos that explain the difference in technology between Apple's currently employed discrete GPUs for Intel Macs (as well as their Intel integrated counterparts) and what Apple has in their silicon both currently and forthcoming. The short of it is that it's a much more efficient system than what has existed in the GPUs of PowerPC and Intel Macs as well as your typical x86-64 PC. There are a lot of other articles and videos that I don't quite have on-hand but are easily Google-able that explain why Apple's integrated GPUs will rival the AMD discrete GPUs that higher-end Intel Macs currently enjoy.

You're essentially comparing Apples to Apples, and it's much more of an Apples to Oranges comparison.

Do you have anything to back up your statement or are you just making assumptions? Not trying to boast here, but I know a thing or two about CPU architectures and I don't see how ARM CPUs will be able to match 2022 Xeon/Epyc in such a short timeframe. It would be a miracle, and miracles usually belong to the domain of fairy tales.

Let's stay realistic here. What did Apple say when they announced the transition? "Intel Macs are here to stay for many years to come". 2 years is not what I would consider "many".

There was that article that made the rounds on here about a month before the Apple Silicon transition that talked of one particular ARM processor that could give the Xeons in the Mac Pro and iMac Pro a run for their money. I don't recall the name of it, but certainly, as a proof of concept, it's definitely reasonable to assume that we'll get there before too long, especially at the rate that Apple's own processors have advanced over recent history (hell, the gains they've made between A8X and A12Z are pretty staggering). I'm not saying a Mac Pro-ready Apple Silicon chip will be ready in the next year. But the next two years really seems doable at the rate things are going.
 
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Tankmaze

macrumors 68000
Mar 7, 2012
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This is a really great analysis and I would like to add that maybe Apple is doing the transition for lower end first like the 13" MBP, 24" iMac, and Macbook Air because those will be the "entry level" Mac and Apple want the highest adoption rate possible for the Apple Silicon. Just like the first iPad with its $500 initial price.

And maybe, just maybe the performance for the top tier 24" iMac would be on par or just slightly below the performance of the newly updated 27" iMac. That would be sick.

I'm excited for October when Apple launch the AS Mac's. Just like the PowerPC - Intel transition, they announced the transition in June 2005 and first Intel Mac arrived in January 2006.


- Apple separating releases within the same product line (i.e. 16" MacBook Pro and 2020 13" MacBook Pro, 2020 27" iMac and 2019 21.5" iMac) is probably the most telling. They clearly need to do this because, during this transition, not every MacBook Pro will make the jump at the same time. Same goes for the iMac. This was true of Apple's laptops during the PowerPC to Intel transition too (15" was first, 17" followed two months later, followed by the merger of the 12" PowerBook with the iBook to make the first MacBooks), however, it wasn't true of Apple's iMacs. I do believe that it will be different this time around. I feel this way because, unlike in the late PowerPC and early Intel eras, the later Intel era has huge performance disparities between lower-end models (21.5" iMac and 13" MacBook Pros, for example) and higher-end models (27" iMacs and 16" MacBook Pros, for example). The 17" and 20" iMacs of 2005 and 2006 were not as far apart in performance. Nor were the 12" and 15" PowerBook G4s of that era.

- Apple has to account for all of this in marketing the newer Apple Silicon models; every Apple Silicon Mac model has to at least be substantially faster than its fastest possible Intel predecessor in order for that Mac model to be ready to make the jump.

tl;dr: Lower-end Macs are making the jump to Apple Silicon first; the iMac Pros days are numbered, and the clues are all in today's announcements!
 

aleni

macrumors 68030
Jun 2, 2006
2,583
910
I was thinking earlier also that using the education side of Apple historically has really paid off with testing the waters to acceptance as well as you mentioned inducing educational software developers to port/develope applications to Apple Silicon. Students having a good lightweight laptop can help change perceptions. ?

Most students like 80-90% of them only do basic tasks and common apps. They won’t need vmware or parallels products, or any pro apps. It would be wise to release a new refined 12” arm macbook first. It’s been long overdue anyway, I really miss that laptop.
 
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