I see. What if the business model wasn't relegated to existing mostly on subscription fees?
Even the open-source/public guide services like ScheduleDirect have a fee associated with them (though admittedly far cheaper) because they have to pay Tribune Media Services for the original content. And that content is often delivered in a "raw" format, so how useful would it be - especially for folks who are not technically savvy?
A very big reason why people by the
tv instead of a far more capable Mac Mini-based system is that you don't need to know how to use a computer to use an
tv. So either the end-user needs to learn how to use a computer, or Apple has to spend money developing a back-end that does all that for you. And if they choose the latter, they either need to charge an ongoing fee for it or raise the price of the product to absorb that cost all at once.
If some company were to come along and use DVR functionality to sell "on-demand" products/offerings, as well as earning a large amount of revenue on hardware (that is genuinely optimized to produce profit and not loss), and earns Apple extra revenue by leveraging the same on-demand content across a number of other profitable hardware offerings? --I think the business model becomes significantly better.
Tivo likely does make money on their hardware - especially things like the Tivo S3 which went for $800. Also, adding the tuner and CC functionality to the
tv will either require a price increase or a profit cut. However, you only buy the hardware once, so you either need to replace that hardware often or you need to find another consistent revenue stream that ties into that hardware to keep the monies coming in between updates. And Tivo has been doing the latter with the subscription service and feature/functionality updates.
If you are required to PAY TiVo, simply to have the device "work", I think... as I've always thought... that it sounds like a bit of a rip-off.
Tivo is a service like any other. You need to pay for your internet access, your phone service, your cable/satellite, your water, your power, etc.
What occurs to me, is that if, like iTunes, AppleTV simply accesses listings "as needed"... like when you browse a website, or the iTunes store... then there does not need to be expensive "downloadings" of all local program listings on a regular basis.
Without regular updates on a consistent basis, the value of the system starts to break down. If I can't find what I am looking for because the data is out of date, I become less likely to use it - especially if an inexpensive option that works is available (cable/satellite DVR service).
While working with a partner like TitanTV might be "involved", I don't think it would be out of the question for them to absorb the costs and offer free life-time program listings to Apple TV purchasers.
The trick is, which "lifetime" - your's, or the company's? God forbid Tivo goes under and nobody picks it up, all those folk's "lifetime" ends.
What happens if Apple finds it too expensive to keep subsidizing the costs? Their "lifetime" becomes your "lifetime", even if you still feel healthy.
I'll continue to believe that TiVo has its business model resting on shakey ground, if you buy that its predicated on charging for TV listings. People are opting for TiVo simply for the better interface.
Tivo's business model is fine. The problem is the cable and satellite companies are offering the same business model on what is believed to be a less expensive basis. Because the cable/satellite companies "hide" the price of the hardware in the monthly rental fee, people believe it is cheaper, even if an actual cost-analysis at times might show Tivo is the better deal (as it is for me).
Apple will face the same problem, even if they don't charge for the service. People will still see the $300 (or more, depending on how Apple decides to handle the programming costs) they have to pay and compare it to the ~$15 a month they need to pay their cable/satellite provider. Then they will think about what happens if it breaks. With Apple, they need to buy AppleCare and even then are only covered for three years. With their cable/satellite provider, they get a new box.
And what happens when new technology comes out? I had a Tivo Series2 and loved it, but eventually I bought an HDTV and needed a cable box that could tune those channels. So I got one from my cable company and still used the Tivo Series2 to record SD content. I hated having to stay up late to watch HD content live, as well as sit through commercials, but then my cable company offered me a DVR that could record HD. So I used the cable DVR for HD and the Tivo Series2 for SD.
But sometimes I still had to watch live HD because there would be two HDshows on at the same time. Then the cable company gave me a new box with two HD tuners. Goodbye Tivo Series2 - I still thought the service was much better then what Comcast offered, but the Tivo Series2 could no longer perform the tasks I asked of it and (at the time) was more expensive on a monthly basis then the cable option.
Many cable companies are moving to a technology called
SDV (Switched Digital Video). Current CableCard-based devices like Tivo (and a new
tv) cannot work with it, though Tivo
says they will have a USB-dongle that will (which Apple could also use). But until they do, you won't be able to receive SDV channels, much less record them.
In the end, any major changes may very well require you to buy a new
tv to support them - assuming Apple decides to do so. That uncertainty is going to scare a lot of people off - maybe too many.
