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LethalWolfe

macrumors G3
Jan 11, 2002
9,370
124
Los Angeles
Will we pay much less? I think the article is pretty inaccurate and filled with assumptions that support the author's point of view, but let's assume he's on the right track and that people would be happy to pay $20/mo directly to HBO in order to stream HBO content to any of their internet connected devices w/o needing a cable/satellite subscription. So $50 for broadband (which seems about average for the US) + $20 for HBO puts you at $70/mo. Add in ESPN (which has the highest carriage fee of any cable channel) for $30/mo and we are already at $100 for just internet HBO and ESPN. Not to mention the cord cutting staples of Hulu+ and Netflix which brings us to about $118/mo. This also assumes that you have solid over the air reception otherwise you'll need a barebones cable package which is usually around $20 a month which brings us up to $138/mo for just OTA channels, broadband, ESPN and HBO.

Of course I don't think very many people would be happy to pay $20/mo for only HBO in an on demand world where Hulu+ and Netflix are $8/mo. Even if $8/mo becomes the normal price per channel after you subscribe to just 8 channels you are paying $114/mo ($50 for internet, $64 for channels) for a lot less content than what you get with a cable subscription.

There's not even proof that all the content creators want to turn into self-distributors (which would add a lot of overhead and new facets to their business) and w/o the content creators on board Apple's got nothing.
 

Liquorpuki

macrumors 68020
Jun 18, 2009
2,286
8
City of Angels
Will we pay much less? I think the article is pretty inaccurate and filled with assumptions that support the author's point of view, but let's assume he's on the right track and that people would be happy to pay $20/mo directly to HBO in order to stream HBO content to any of their internet connected devices w/o needing a cable/satellite subscription. So $50 for broadband (which seems about average for the US) + $20 for HBO puts you at $70/mo. Add in ESPN (which has the highest carriage fee of any cable channel) for $30/mo and we are already at $100 for just internet HBO and ESPN. Not to mention the cord cutting staples of Hulu+ and Netflix which brings us to about $118/mo. This also assumes that you have solid over the air reception otherwise you'll need a barebones cable package which is usually around $20 a month which brings us up to $138/mo for just OTA channels, broadband, ESPN and HBO.

Of course I don't think very many people would be happy to pay $20/mo for only HBO in an on demand world where Hulu+ and Netflix are $8/mo. Even if $8/mo becomes the normal price per channel after you subscribe to just 8 channels you are paying $114/mo ($50 for internet, $64 for channels) for a lot less content than what you get with a cable subscription.

There's not even proof that all the content creators want to turn into self-distributors (which would add a lot of overhead and new facets to their business) and w/o the content creators on board Apple's got nothing.

Netflix used the internet as disruptive tech to kill video rental stores. It's not in the TV market so it doesn't count.

Hulu used the internet as disruptive tech to bypass cable providers for a small # of shows while also allowing consumers to watch episodes from the beginning of the season. Cable providers don't offer this so it doesn't factor either.

That $20 basic cable isn't needed because the whole business opportunity here is to use the internet as disruptive tech to replace coax and leverage it as a better value for consumers by killing the bundle. If you were to do this, you would go all in. You wouldn't just send premium cable through the internet and keep basic cable off. Your basic channels would go through the net too.

ESPN's per-sub fee (AKA the fee it charges cable providers per subscriber) isn't $30. It's more like $5. You get $30 because the cable companies charge you an additional $25 on top of it, which proves my point about consumers getting ripped off. And the vast majority of per-sub fees are well under a buck.

Content creators won't have to self-distribute. Only 2 things change. The TV distribution medium goes from coax to ethernet, which makes sense because almost every home that has cable TV also has internet. And the business model changes from a bundle (cable companies making consumers pay per-sub fees for 200 channels when they only watch 5) to consumers only paying per-sub fees for what they want.
 

LethalWolfe

macrumors G3
Jan 11, 2002
9,370
124
Los Angeles
Netflix used the internet as disruptive tech to kill video rental stores. It's not in the TV market so it doesn't count. Hulu used the internet as disruptive tech to bypass cable providers for a small # of shows while also allowing consumers to watch episodes from the beginning of the season. Cable providers don't offer this so it doesn't factor either.
Netflix and Hulu are two of the biggest reasons people are dropping their cable TV subscriptions. Both of them stream TV shows and both of them are starting to generate original programing. How can they "not count" in a discussion about changing how programing is distributed and consumed by viewers?


That $20 basic cable isn't needed because the whole business opportunity here is to use the internet as disruptive tech to replace coax and leverage it as a better value for consumers by killing the bundle. If you were to do this, you would go all in. You wouldn't just send premium cable through the internet and keep basic cable off. Your basic channels would go through the net too.
How, when, and why will all the local OTA TV stations start simulcasting over the Internet?

ESPN's per-sub fee (AKA the fee it charges cable providers per subscriber) isn't $30.
I was basing the imaginary number of $30 off of the article you linked to. The arthor of that article said people would be happy to pay $20/mo directly to HBO and if that's the case ESPN can surely charge more.

Content creators won't have to self-distribute.
I'm not sure why you are saying they won't have to self-distribute. The article you linked to talks about cable channels breaking away from cable distribution and selling content directly to consumers. For example, HBO leaving the world of cable distribution and selling it's HBOGo service directly to customers. Of course there is still a bundling issue here as you will have to pay a flat fee to get access to all of HBO's content even if all you want is to watch Game of Thrones.

Only 2 things change. The TV distribution medium goes from coax to ethernet, which makes sense because almost every home that has cable TV also has internet.
The physical cable going into someone's home is still most likely going to be coax so I don't what you mean when you say that's going away.

And the business model changes from a bundle (cable companies making consumers pay per-sub fees for 200 channels when they only watch 5) to consumers only paying per-sub fees for what they want.
So are you saying that cable companies will still exist but everything will just be a la carte? Part of the reason cable companies sell bundles is because sometimes they are forced to buy bundles from content creators. That was the a part of the showdown between Viacom and DirecTV recently. Viacom would only sell its programing as a bundle and DirecTV didn't want to buy a bundle (yes, I hope someone at DirecTV saw the irony in that). Even if the whole thing does go a la carte and/or content creators start selling directly to the public I haven't seen much to convince me that it would actually be significantly cheaper unless you only ever watched one or two channels.
 

Liquorpuki

macrumors 68020
Jun 18, 2009
2,286
8
City of Angels
Netflix and Hulu are two of the biggest reasons people are dropping their cable TV subscriptions. Both of them stream TV shows and both of them are starting to generate original programing. How can they "not count" in a discussion about changing how programing is distributed and consumed by viewers?

Because your equation is supposed to compare cable providers' value vs what the consumer would pay if Apple stepped in and killed the bundle. Netflix and Hulu are third party services that are not offered by cable providers. If you're gonna factor them in on the Apple side of the equation, you factor them in on the cable side of the equation too and they cancel out.

How, when, and why will all the local OTA TV stations start simulcasting over the Internet?

How = route the data through the net instead of through a cable box or antenna. The when and why are contingent upon the TV business model changing. And a few OTA TV stations are already self-distributing over the internet. Check out CBS.com

I'm not sure why you are saying they won't have to self-distribute. The article you linked to talks about cable channels breaking away from cable distribution and selling content directly to consumers. For example, HBO leaving the world of cable distribution and selling it's HBOGo service directly to customers. Of course there is still a bundling issue here as you will have to pay a flat fee to get access to all of HBO's content even if all you want is to watch Game of Thrones.

That article is Paul Tassi's vision of TV and doesn't even mention Apple. Talking about the issue in the context of this thread - Apple revolutionizing TV, Apple would become the distributor. They would work out contracts with the content creators.

BTW I linked Tassi's article to make the guy think about what he's paying for in his cable bill, not because I agree with everything Tassi wrote.

The physical cable going into someone's home is still most likely going to be coax so I don't what you mean when you say that's going away.

People w/ TV & internet are currently paying Comcast for 2 physical channels - TV through coax/cable box and internet through a cable modem. Internet tech is now mature enough we only need one channel and can ditch the cable box. But cable companies are resistant to it because it allows them to squeeze more money out of us by charging us to rent a cable box and pay a service fee for a guy to staple coax under the carpet and flip a switch outside. Instead of investing in infrastructure to phase out coax, they're holding onto the old business model. This is their weakness - they don't appreciate how disruptive internet technology can be and are deadset on maintaining an obsolete standard. This is why companies like Apple and Google have an opening.

So are you saying that cable companies will still exist but everything will just be a la carte? Part of the reason cable companies sell bundles is because sometimes they are forced to buy bundles from content creators. That was the a part of the showdown between Viacom and DirecTV recently. Viacom would only sell its programing as a bundle and DirecTV didn't want to buy a bundle (yes, I hope someone at DirecTV saw the irony in that). Even if the whole thing does go a la carte and/or content creators start selling directly to the public I haven't seen much to convince me that it would actually be significantly cheaper unless you only ever watched one or two channels.

Maybe a la carte. Maybe just more fragmented. It's really up to the contracts. Far as Viacom getting what they want, it all depends on how much leverage they have. The industry is bigger than any one company. Back when the music industry's transition to digital, Sony Music didn't want to give iTunes the rights to their IP but eventually caved.
 

LethalWolfe

macrumors G3
Jan 11, 2002
9,370
124
Los Angeles
Because your equation is supposed to compare cable providers' value vs what the consumer would pay if Apple stepped in and killed the bundle. Netflix and Hulu are third party services that are not offered by cable providers. If you're gonna factor them in on the Apple side of the equation, you factor them in on the cable side of the equation too and they cancel out.
It's all related though. If cable un-bundles somewhat or goes totally a la carte or channels start selling direct to the public you don't think consumers will inevitably look at the new price structure and compare it to subscription video services that already exist such as Netflix, Hulu and Amazon? I mean, if HBOGo becomes a subscription service charging $20/mo of course people will go, "WTF, Hulu+ and Netflix are only $8 a month!" Not to mention the people that will say, "Why do I have to pay for all of HBOGo when all I want to watch is Game of Thrones?"

How = route the data through the net instead of through a cable box or antenna. The when and why are contingent upon the TV business model changing. And a few OTA TV stations are already self-distributing over the internet. Check out CBS.com
I'm talking about local TV stations/affiliates and local programming, not national broadcast networks. So this stage of the plan is still in the "1.Webcast everything, 2. ???, 3. profit" phase. ;)


That article is Paul Tassi's vision of TV and doesn't even mention Apple. Talking about the issue in the context of this thread - Apple revolutionizing TV, Apple would become the distributor. They would work out contracts with the content creators.
How is Apple becoming the middleman, as opposed to Comast or Verizon, revolutionary and what is the upside to content providers? The shifts in technology that are eroding the power of middlemen are eroding the power of all middleman, including Apple.

What if Apple isn't willing to pay as much up front as the cable/satellitve providers do? What if the content creators don't want to work with Apple? What about content creators that do not want to be tied to any specific distributor and they just release a multi-platform app and sell directly to the public. It's very easy now to stream Interent content to a TV. Many TVs have that feature built in and if they don't a variety of devices from cheap Blu-ray players to video game consoles to an assortment of set-top boxes (including :apple:TV) make it breeze to do.

If a content creator is willing to risk leaving a traditional cable TV provider why team up with Apple, which limits you to just Apple products, as opposed to taking a total cross-platform approach like Netflix or HBOGo? I mean, Apple's MO seems to be splitting sales revenue not paying for content up front.


But cable companies are resistant to it because it allows them to squeeze more money out of us by charging us to rent a cable box and pay a service fee for a guy to staple coax under the carpet and flip a switch outside. Instead of investing in infrastructure to phase out coax, they're holding onto the old business model. This is their weakness - they don't appreciate how disruptive internet technology can be and are deadset on maintaining an obsolete standard. This is why companies like Apple and Google have an opening.
I'm still lost. You need an ISP in order to get Internet. Landline internet requires coax, telephone lines or fiber. Satellite internet requires instillation of a dish and the running of wires from the dish to the modem inside the building. Whether you want just TV service, just Internet service or both it still requires an equal amount of labor on the part of your provider. Internet via cell access requires towers and even with LTE there isn't enough bandwidth available to have everyone drop their landline internet access (at least not yet).

Apple and Google are in the same boat as existing providers. How is Google running lines any less labor intensive than Comcast or Verizon running their own lines? Hell, it's more intensive for Google because the established players already have lines in place.


Maybe a la carte. Maybe just more fragmented. It's really up to the contracts. Far as Viacom getting what they want, it all depends on how much leverage they have. The industry is bigger than any one company. Back when the music industry's transition to digital, Sony Music didn't want to give iTunes the rights to their IP but eventually caved.
What's happening now is way different that what happend with music and even what's happening with apps/games. There are more players involved working in concert to create TV distribution as we know it today and these change impact all of them. Some players are fighting for their lives while others don't care about the delivery method as long as they get paid but they are all in positions to make transitioning to a new model a pain in the butt.

I'm not trying to be argumentative but I see a lot of people talking in broad-strokes but I'm more interested in the nitty gritty.
 

Liquorpuki

macrumors 68020
Jun 18, 2009
2,286
8
City of Angels
It's all related though. If cable un-bundles somewhat or goes totally a la carte or channels start selling direct to the public you don't think consumers will inevitably look at the new price structure and compare it to subscription video services that already exist such as Netflix, Hulu and Amazon? I mean, if HBOGo becomes a subscription service charging $20/mo of course people will go, "WTF, Hulu+ and Netflix are only $8 a month!" Not to mention the people that will say, "Why do I have to pay for all of HBOGo when all I want to watch is Game of Thrones?"

The choice right now isn't pay $8 for Netflix vs $20 for HBO. It's pay $20 for HBO unbundled vs pay $100 for HBO in a bundle. For someone who just wants to watch Game of Thrones, which one has better value?

I'm talking about local TV stations/affiliates and local programming, not national broadcast networks. So this stage of the plan is still in the "1.Webcast everything, 2. ???, 3. profit" phase. ;)

Yeah, webcast everything. The internet is just another medium to relay TV data to a house. Not sure what 2.??? means. Profit phase doesn't matter for local since they're all paid for via advertising and not per-sub fees. Profit for per-sub content providers is affected by viewership. If a distributor can kill the bundle and in doing so, get more people to sign up for HBO a la carte than would've signed up in a bundle, HBO increases subs and wins, and the a la carte model phases out the old.

How is Apple becoming the middleman, as opposed to Comast or Verizon, revolutionary and what is the upside to content providers? The shifts in technology that are eroding the power of middlemen are eroding the power of all middleman, including Apple.

Them replacing the middleman is not revolutionary. What's revolutionary is the business model changing. The hundred content providers are not gonna change the business model in unison - they don't have the clout nor the organization. Therefore you need a middleman to step up and reinvent the distribution model. The current middlemen (cable companies) do not appreciate the ability of the internet to disrupt media distribution. So a middleman that does and has significant clout (Apple, Google, etc) has an opening.

What if Apple isn't willing to pay as much up front as the cable/satellitve providers do? What if the content creators don't want to work with Apple? What about content creators that do not want to be tied to any specific distributor and they just release a multi-platform app and sell directly to the public. It's very easy now to stream Interent content to a TV. Many TVs have that feature built in and if they don't a variety of devices from cheap Blu-ray players to video game consoles to an assortment of set-top boxes (including :apple:TV) make it breeze to do.

Contract details are Apple's problem to deal with. There's an article on the front page that speculates about how Apple might be having a hard time getting the right contracts that would kill the bundle and is holding off on the TV until they can.

Far as TV, it's not just streaming the back catalog of a few content providers (AKA Hulu). It's real-time streaming for every major content provider.

If a content creator is willing to risk leaving a traditional cable TV provider why team up with Apple, which limits you to just Apple products, as opposed to taking a total cross-platform approach like Netflix or HBOGo? I mean, Apple's MO seems to be splitting sales revenue not paying for content up front.

A content creator doesn't have to be exclusive to Apple. But to maximize profits, they should be on board if the business model changes and to do so they should partner with the distributor that's first to market. With digital music distribution, the big 4 labels first signed on board with iTunes. In 2012 I can get the same music off Amazon and other storefronts.

I'm still lost. You need an ISP in order to get Internet. Landline internet requires coax, telephone lines or fiber. Satellite internet requires instillation of a dish and the running of wires from the dish to the modem inside the building. Whether you want just TV service, just Internet service or both it still requires an equal amount of labor on the part of your provider. Internet via cell access requires towers and even with LTE there isn't enough bandwidth available to have everyone drop their landline internet access (at least not yet).

My point is there's redundancy. Yeah you need an ISP to get internet and you need a single physical channel to your house. But TV can piggyback off internet bandwidth so why do you need a cablebox? Why do you need a splitter? There's voice over IP now. Why do you need to pay Time Warner $25 for a landline. The answer is you don't but you do because the cable companies are squeezing you for $$$ by sticking to redundant infrastructure.

Apple and Google are in the same boat as existing providers. How is Google running lines any less labor intensive than Comcast or Verizon running their own lines?

Labor intensive has nothing to do with it. These middleman are all providing a product. The one that provides the best value to consumers and gets marketshare wins. Whether it's Google as a fiber ISP, or Apple as an a la carte TV channel distributor.

I'm not trying to be argumentative but I see a lot of people talking in broad-strokes but I'm more interested in the nitty gritty.

Don't worry, I don't take it as argumentative. Yeah it's an uphill battle and judging from the article on the first page, it looks like Apple is having a hard time with the contracts. We'll see if they can pull it off or not.
 

LethalWolfe

macrumors G3
Jan 11, 2002
9,370
124
Los Angeles
The choice right now isn't pay $8 for Netflix vs $20 for HBO. It's pay $20 for HBO unbundled vs pay $100 for HBO in a bundle. For someone who just wants to watch Game of Thrones, which one has better value?
C. Pirating or D. use someone else's HBOGo code. ;)

$20 unbundled would still need $50 'net access so this hypothetical situation it would be $70 vs $100.

I was just saying that no matter what happens someone will complain because it's not exactly how they want it and there's no way to satisfy 6 billion opinions.

Yeah, webcast everything. The internet is just another medium to relay TV data to a house. Not sure what 2.??? means. Profit phase doesn't matter for local since they're all paid for via advertising and not per-sub fees.
Ad rates for the web are significantly lower than for broadcast though. A peanuts TV rate would be mana from heaven on the web. Down the line, way down the line, local TV stations might just cease to exist. Besides local news and a smattering of local programing most of the local TV stations air national content or reruns but if we all 'tune in' to AmericanIdol.com to watch
it live and reruns can be handled by Netflix, Hulu or Amazon there's not much of a compelling reason to tune into a local TV station. The worst part of this is that local stations will really start feeling the squeeze way before inexpensive, broadband internet is as widely available as OTA signals or bare bones cable.

The "2. ???" is a reference to the Underpants Gnomes from South Park.

Them replacing the middleman is not revolutionary. What's revolutionary is the business model changing. The hundred content providers are not gonna change the business model in unison - they don't have the clout nor the organization. Therefore you need a middleman to step up and reinvent the distribution model. The current middlemen (cable companies) do not appreciate the ability of the internet to disrupt media distribution. So a middleman that does and has significant clout (Apple, Google, etc) has an opening.
The business model is changing without Apple's 'help' and I'd say the cable companies are well aware of what's going on. They are just trying to stem the tide until they figure out how not lose a ton of money and control (both of which I think are inevitable). For example, Verizon and Comcast have started offering limited programing on Xbox Live (assuming you have a TV subscription with one of the respective companies of course) and AT&T and MS have/had a deal where if you U-Verse subscribers could use a 360 in place of a set-top box from AT&T. HBO and ESPN offering stream content (even live sports w/regards to ESPN) but of course you need a cable subscription to get access to these. MLB and the NHL both have apps that stream all their games and DirecTV has a deal w/Sony to give make their NFL Sunday Ticket available on the PS3.

This is why I keep wondering what Apple's revolutionary thing will be because the revolution in visual media distribution is already underway. Maybe Apple's revolution will be along the lines of making finding content from all these 'channels' more user friendly and integrating it with the current Apple ecosystem. But even then, if you have an Xbox Kinect you can do a voice command search for a TV show and the Xbox will pull up the show as well as all the services that you can use to watch that show (Netflix, Hulu, Zune, etc) and Surface looks to bring a of additional functionality to MS, iOS and Android devices.

With all that being said Apple's MO isn't to be first but to be better.

Contract details are Apple's problem to deal with. There's an article on the front page that speculates about how Apple might be having a hard time getting the right contracts that would kill the bundle and is holding off on the TV until they can.
Until the current contracts content providers have with cable companies start expiring (which obviously won't happen all at once) I think we will see limited change in the landscape. We'll get teases like HBOGo and ESPN on the 360 but I don't think any major changes can happen until these current contracts expire.

My point is there's redundancy. Yeah you need an ISP to get internet and you need a single physical channel to your house. But TV can piggyback off internet bandwidth so why do you need a cablebox? Why do you need a splitter? There's voice over IP now. Why do you need to pay Time Warner $25 for a landline. The answer is you don't but you do because the cable companies are squeezing you for $$$ by sticking to redundant infrastructure.
Part of it is a money grab, part of it is to cover admin & tech costs for each business segment and part of it is that there's not enough available bandwidth currently to make everything IP-based right now. Just imagine the data needs an average family of four would need when everything they do from watching tv shows/movies to gaming to social media to music streaming is all coming from the same pipe. We're gonna need a bigger boat (and one w/o data caps).
 
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