What will be the PC response to Apple's M1 ?

[Piggie]

Just wondering.
Generally in any technology something is created which appears better in way to what's currently available.
This has been going on since man invented the wheel/rollers.
Someone else saw this and copied it, hopefully over time improving it.
We as a species continued to do this till we found ourselves where we are today.

So Apple launches the M1 which has benefits in real world usage for a specific type of machine.
With the promise that more powerful machines will follow.

The Windows/Linux (PC) world will of course see this, and if promised improvements at the higher ends do materialize will of course change also to gain similar benefits.
I would be crazy, would it not to assume the PC world will simply ignore ARM and the M1 if it does deliver what people are expecting.

So, what do you think will happen, over, perhaps the next decade let's say?
I know AMD are reported to be working on something a little like the M1 in some ways.

I would guess, at some point Intel will do something, albeit very late.

What are your thoughts?

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

The topic is perhaps less to do with the M1 alone and more the integration between it and the rest of the system.

Apple’s advantage isn’t the fact it’s ARM-based, the but way in which it supports the system throughout. It’s the collective; iOS app support, instant wake, custom silicon for Apple’s own apps and it’s processes, fanless operation and much, much more.

Many of these feature are possible because Apple designed both the hardware and software; and the speed improvements are merely a side-effect. I would argue that everything else surrounding the transition is actually more exciting.

I believe the closest competition has to be Microsoft and Google. Microsoft will no doubt take ARM a lot more seriously now and investigate in-house chips with Windows, whilst Google may do the same for their ChromeOS.

Regardless, Intel will continue to exist and may slowly become more known for their higher-end chips solutions.

 

[Moccasin]

I’m by no means an expert in these matters and am happy to be proven wrong, but this article suggests that Qualcomm at least haven’t yet got much to give in response to the M1.

Where is the Qualcomm Snapdragon that will challenge Apple’s M1 Macs?

Qualcomm could have announced its plans to take on Apple's M1 with an upcoming Snapdragon Compute chip for Windows on Arm. Instead, the topic was barely mentioned at the company's Snapdragon Technology Summit.

www.pcworld.com

By the time their response does come out, Apple will no doubt already be moving on to their next generation chip. I’m sure Intel and co will catch up, but they may lose market share in the short term. The language used by the industry spokespeople in the article doesn’t suggest they’ve much confidence in the current ability to respond to Apple. I’m guessing that there’ll be some consternation amongst the chip foundries as they work out a way to respond.

 

[JohnnyGo]

Chip making is all about roadmaps and long term planning.

Intel/AMD/TSMC/Global Foundries have their roadmaps and will be hard to change direction over the next 2 years (a bit like the Titanic).

The important impact IMHO is on the folks already using the ARM ISA or ARM designed cores, including ARM itself. They will benefit from increased demand/interest from prospective buyers for their chips.

Cloud / server hardware is already moving in this direction. See the new Amazon processor as an example.

ARM Processor - AWS Graviton Processor - AWS

AWS Graviton processors deliver the best price performance for your cloud workloads, optimized for a range of general-purpose, compute, memory, and storage-intensive workloads.

aws.amazon.com

 

[Piggie]

I did hear that RISC-V is starting to look pretty amazing, and can do things on a fraction of the power that ARM can do.
And being open, has some amazingly clever people working on it, without the restrictions ARM has on it's design.

No idea how RISK-V will develop into the future, but it's all exciting stuff.
And yes, it needs someone the design the hardware to match the software.

 

[ian87w]

In the short term, nothing. For majority of people and the market, Windows is still the only choice, so whatever hardware are offered, people will buy it, regardless of how "bad" they are. Legacy compatibility is the key that lock people in.

Microsoft tried with Win-RT, Windows 10S, and then Surface Pro X. They didn't go anywhere. x86 is safe. AMD will start ruling the desktop and builder market, while intel keeps the mobile and general markets.

The legacy baggage will surely let Apple stumbles here and there, and still keeps their lead in performance per watt. However, PC will catch up. It just won't be soon.

 

[m1maverick]

If I knew the answer to this question I'd be buying stock instead of writing a response here

Seriously though, Apple doesn't have a lock on processor design. It's my opinion Apple took a number things and combined them together into a great processor. Things like the SoC concept, 5nm process technology, on chip memory, unified memory, etc. Taken individually these provide decent, but not earth shattering, improvements in performance. Combined together and we get the M1.

What will be interesting is whether Apple can sustain such improvements. Have they used up all the tricks in their bag? Or do they have more to come? I kind of liken this to a foot race. Did Apple come out with a burst of energy to take the lead early on? Will they be able to maintain the pace? Or will they become exhausted and other runners will pass them by?

I don't have the answers but I am very interested in the long game.

 

[Piggie]

You know what I'd love to see, simply out of curiosity.
Windows 10 on The brand new Xbox series X console, which is basically a VERY graphically powerful PC with a SOC made by AMD powering it.
100% sure it could be done if Msoft wanted to, but I'm, sure they don't simply because Msoft don't want to make other PC builders angry.

 

[loby]

It looks like Apple may be ahead for some time (for a change) so it will be interesting to watch. If what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg...then the next few years will change the course of the world of technology.

 

[Piggie]

It looks like Apple may be ahead for some time (for a change) so it will be interesting to watch. If what we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg...then the next few years will change the course of the world of technology.

I feel this is all going to depend on one thing.
Does Apple has some magical knowledge that Intel, AMD, Nvidia etc don't know about?
Sure, Apple has been able to make something, very focused to run what they want very fast for the type of machine and use little power doing it.
This is great and amazing, but are Apple going to hit the very same exact walls that others are up against very quickly as they aim for the higher end?

I'm 100% we have people, even on these very forums which think Apple will simply blast past these other companies over the next few years and won't be constrained by the exact same limits others have been and are facing with hardware design.

Time will of course tell.
And I'm 100% certain Apple's ARM chips will be designed to run Apple software in Apple machines amazingly well, as the hardware will be build to run the software.
And I'm sure Msoft could do it. Custom silicon specifically designed to run Windows and Msoft apps blazingly fast.

But of course thats not what PC's and Windows is all about, it's about being open, and able to run anything from almost anytime with minimal restrictions, and you can't have both.

 

[Wackery]

microsoft surface x was kind of that, and that didn't go so well

 

[alien3dx]

Just wondering.
Generally in any technology something is created which appears better in way to what's currently available.
This has been going on since man invented the wheel/rollers.
Someone else saw this and copied it, hopefully over time improving it.
We as a species continued to do this till we found ourselves where we are today.

So Apple launches the M1 which has benefits in real world usage for a specific type of machine.
With the promise that more powerful machines will follow.

The Windows/Linux (PC) world will of course see this, and if promised improvements at the higher ends do materialize will of course change also to gain similar benefits.
I would be crazy, would it not to assume the PC world will simply ignore ARM and the M1 if it does deliver what people are expecting.

So, what do you think will happen, over, perhaps the next decade let's say?
I know AMD are reported to be working on something a little like the M1 in some ways.

I would guess, at some point Intel will do something, albeit very late.

What are your thoughts?

to be truth nothing will be changed in 10 years period in normal company and 15 years for server.

Apple main market is for developer ios and final cut pro user and usa . Other that they will but very very small percentage like iphone .

If not request ios development i would stick forever windows and linux . No point for me to buy expensive device

 

[loby]

If people remember some time back, we were seeing something going on with intel. It seemed during that time that intel was moving away from CPU development, especially when the bug was found in their CPU that goes back about 20 years....

My guess if you track what has been happening the last few years, it looked like Intel (however it happen) either found out or Apple shared what they have created (maybe showed them) and intel seem to say, "ok..its over...we had a good run..time to invest in business services, migrate away from CPU etc...made a deal with Apple.."ok..give us a break...give us some time to get out.."

That is what to me it looks like.

Change is here..

 

[russell_314]

The PC doesn't have a response short term. Something like this takes years of R&D. You can bet both Intel and AMD have a team working on it full time now.

 

[jdb8167]

I feel this is all going to depend on one thing.
Does Apple has some magical knowledge that Intel, AMD, Nvidia etc don't know about?
Sure, Apple has been able to make something, very focused to run what they want very fast for the type of machine and use little power doing it.
This is great and amazing, but are Apple going to hit the very same exact walls that others are up against very quickly as they aim for the higher end?

There is nothing magical in Apple’s M1 design. It is just that Apple isn’t constrained by design decisions made decades ago like Intel is. For example, there are sound technical reasons why Apple has an effective 8-wide decode and Intel can’t get much better than 3 or 4. Unlike in the past, Intel is no longer the biggest player in chip manufacturing. With TSMCs help, Apple can now compete with anyone and win because they can spend more R & D dollars than anyone else.

Apple is going to run up against physics just like everyone else but not particularly soon. TSMC has a roadmap to 2 nm. That should be valid until at least 2025. If TSMC can do even one more shrink after that to 1.5 or 1 nm then Apple is set for about a decade of improvements. On top of traditional die shrinks there is a lot of research in packaging like chiplets and 3D stacking that TSMC is also involved in along with the rest of the industry. There are a lot of ways that Apple can lead as long as they spend on R&D.

 

[LeeW]

Don't see any response is needed, the PC market is just fine as it is relative to available devices and software. Over the next decade? Who knows but I really don't think the industry is now going to rush to ARM. Far from it.

 

[hugodrax]

Nothing. Whats holding back progress is Microsoft Windows.

 

[Piggie]

Don't see any response is needed, the PC market is just fine as it is relative to available devices and software. Over the next decade? Who knows but I really don't think the industry is now going to rush to ARM. Far from it.

But is there any reason why PC's/Windows could not move to ARM ?

Why could we not get high end ARM PC's and Msoft have Windows running on it, and app makers recompiling their apps for Windows ARM in the same way they are for Apple's ARM ?

 

[hugodrax]

to be truth nothing will be changed in 10 years period in normal company and 15 years for server.

Apple main market is for developer ios and final cut pro user and usa . Other that they will but very very small percentage like iphone .

If not request ios development i would stick forever windows and linux . No point for me to buy expensive device

Dont forget creative industry. Fat margins market while the rest focus on razor thin markets where as long as they keep high volumes all is well, the problem is people are starting to upgrade computers less since intel can only give a 2-3% performance boost per CPU generation. This is because of backwards compatibility with 1978 code which now painted intel into a corner.

 

[alien3dx]

Dont forget creative industry. Fat margins market while the rest focus on razor thin markets where as long as they keep high volumes all is well, the problem is people are starting to upgrade computers less since intel can only give a 2-3% performance boost per CPU generation. This is because of backwards compatibility with 1978 code which now painted intel into a corner.

Most moved to amd ryzen creative here. Ryzen not pure perfect like intel. My imac temp around 40 degree celcius and ryzen around 50 to 60 degree celcius.My macbook pro also hover 40 degree celcius .

Not much people using apple eco system like imessage even they used apple iphone. haish

 

[LeeW]

But is there any reason why PC's/Windows could not move to ARM ?

Well, yes, lots right now but you are right, over time it could happen but the moon and stars would be in perfect alignment for that to happen.

The last 4 years have shown why it needed to happen for Apple. The question then is what is wrong with the PC world that ARM will fix? Improve areas, yes, fix? Not so much.

 

[Jimmy James]

Denial & avoidance, mixed with panic in the boardroom.

 

[jz0309]

x86 (Intel & AMD) will continue "as usual" - there will be continued improvements as we have seen in the past but nothing out of the ordinary. They focus on making CPUs/GPUs for OEMs (Dell, HP etc) who build systems, run Windows (forget Linux, its a niche for consumers/office workers) as they always have. I don't see anything of that changing.

Apple's trump card is that they own the entire system (HW, SW and services), integrate with mobile devices that provide as seamless as possible user experience. The x86 world with Windows will never get there.

Apple will steal some market share, potentially getting up to 20% but the enterprise folks will not switch to Apple in a massive way, way too much legacy ...

Arm will only have a chance for consumer PCs (that includes enterprise) if someone besides Apple will provide a similar experience but I don't see the Dells/HPs going there nor Microsoft. And I don't really see Windows Arm taking a major share as it is not x86 compatible and does not provide a benefit over x86 Windows (yet).

On the enterprise server side of the world, it could be different, Ampere comes to mind, and the Googles of the world are tired of spending 30% or so of the cost for a datacenter on cooling alone, Arm has a huge potential.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Just wondering.
Generally in any technology something is created which appears better in way to what's currently available.
This has been going on since man invented the wheel/rollers.
Someone else saw this and copied it, hopefully over time improving it.
We as a species continued to do this till we found ourselves where we are today.

So Apple launches the M1 which has benefits in real world usage for a specific type of machine.
With the promise that more powerful machines will follow.

The Windows/Linux (PC) world will of course see this, and if promised improvements at the higher ends do materialize will of course change also to gain similar benefits.
I would be crazy, would it not to assume the PC world will simply ignore ARM and the M1 if it does deliver what people are expecting.

So, what do you think will happen, over, perhaps the next decade let's say?
I know AMD are reported to be working on something a little like the M1 in some ways.

I would guess, at some point Intel will do something, albeit very late.

What are your thoughts?

It's not so much that Intel needs to do something. I mean, they need to get their sh*t together when it comes to getting to 7nm and 5nm, but even that's not enough. ARM is catching up. Apple, since A6 (I believe), has been making their own custom ARM designs and optimizing specifically for their machines. This is why there's the whole "Don't call it ARM Mac; call it Apple Silicon". Their optimizing of ARM for their specific needs has resulted in performance that beats standard ARM designs, as well as x86, but standard ARM is still on a serious march to overtake x86 and it will do so before too long. So, Intel and AMD need to consider producing SoCs using the ARM64 instruction set rather than the x86-64 instruction set. And that's just to start competing with Apple. A non-Apple ARM64 SoC will need to be beefier than the ones otherwise available today to match Apple's performance. That's the trade-off for not being as optimized (a similar phenomenon occurs in the smartphone space).

That all being said, Microsoft isn't mandating a move to ARM64 at this point; they're merely investing in it as an alternative that can be developed for. While there isn't that mandate, Windows app developers will still lean x86-64. The mass-adoption in speed gains on Apple Silicon (especially when running Windows 10 for ARM64 in a VM on an Apple Silicon Mac and getting double the performance of the best ARM-based Windows 10 PC out there) will hopefully jump-start an interest in having developers make ARM64 versions, as eventually an ARM64 Windows 10 PC will see similar advantages to their x86-64 counterparts that the M1 Macs see to their Intel Mac counterparts. But the fact that Intel hasn't really done anything since Skylake other than increase core count is bad for them and beyond whatever Apple has going on with the transition to Apple Silicon Macs.

That said, I think the only way someone is going to beat Apple at their own game is to design the hardware and software the way that Apple does. I'm talking the chip designs and the OS. We're likely not going to see that. At best, Microsoft enters the SoC game and starts selling their SoC to OEMs who will build ARM64 PCs. But even that seems far fetched. I think what we'll, more realistically, see is companies like Samsung and Qualcomm produce SoCs that are powerful enough to offset whatever efficiency gains that Apple has and compete with them that way (again, similar to how Apple's A-series chips in iPhones compare to much beefier SoCs in Android phones).

 

[richard371]

Dell, MS, Intel, AMD will continue to release the same fragmented underwhelming products they have recently. They need more innovation.