What will be the PC response to Apple's M1 ?

[Piggie]

Perhaps this is a dumb question
But is there any actual reason why Microsoft could not sit down with some amazing chip designers and task them with using ARM cores + custom design and tell them to build a chip, or SOC which is specifically tailored to run Windows and accelerate all aspects of Windows?

 

[Nate Spencer]

But is there any reason why PC's/Windows could not move to ARM ?

Why could we not get high end ARM PC's and Msoft have Windows running on it, and app makers recompiling their apps for Windows ARM in the same way they are for Apple's ARM ?

Having written software and sold some of it. You only go to this effort if there is demand. Apple controls now the entire tech stack. This allows them to move quickly compared to the various companies that supply parts for the PC ecosystem. I don't see this changing for now. And as AMD will soon be on 5nm there might be less of a difference. Key thing is the OEMs and MS deciding to change. Microsoft to my experience has never made a 1-click or simple recompile for Winforms and WPF apps onto ARM. Those are the vast majority of Windows Applications in existence.

 

[jz0309]

Dell, MS, Intel, AMD will continue to release the same fragmented junk they always have.

that "junk" displaced mainframes and enabled personal computing for the past 30so years ... not saying that there isn't something better and it needs to be replaced, but calling 3 decades of success "junk" doesn't do it justice either ...

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

Dell, MS, Intel, AMD will continue to release the same fragmented junk they always have.

To be fair, we weren’t saying that when Apple switched to Intel. Their offerings were clear and well-positioned.

 

[jz0309]

Perhaps this is a dumb question
But is there any actual reason why Microsoft could not sit down with some amazing chip designers and task them with using ARM cores + custom design and tell them to build a chip, or SOC which is specifically tailored to run Windows and accelerate all aspects of Windows?

and what's in it for MS? they already own 80% or so of the market for OS and it's a cash cow for them ...their HW biz (Surface and such) is a niche compared to the rest ... and where MS is stuck, just like Intel/AMD, is backwards compatibility ... Apple owns everything, HW, OS and some SW, and provides services, unless an OEM is going to do something similar, this model I not going to change

 

[richard371]

that "junk" displaced mainframes and enabled personal computing for the past 30so years ... not saying that there isn't something better and it needs to be replaced, but calling 3 decades of success "junk" doesn't do it justice either ..

 

[richard371]

Good point. I went a little too far. Updated. Thanks

 

[jz0309]

Good point. I went a little too far. Updated. Thanks

Agree that the incremental upgrades we’ve been seeing over the past decade or so were/are frustrating, but, I also do t think that any of the traditional companies (I tel, Dell etc etc) will be able to break out if that model... Apple is successful and will be even more as they now own the entire system, HW, OS, some SW and services around that consumers start to appreciate that... I just don’t see anyone following apples model, not Microsoft either...

 

[richinaus]

Agree that the incremental upgrades we’ve been seeing over the past decade or so were/are frustrating, but, I also do t think that any of the traditional companies (I tel, Dell etc etc) will be able to break out if that model... Apple is successful and will be even more as they now own the entire system, HW, OS, some SW and services around that consumers start to appreciate that... I just don’t see anyone following apples model, not Microsoft either...

Apple have been gearing up for this model for years now [in fact it was always the goal].
So really we are now seeing the fruits of decades of work rather than a recent thing. It just took Apple this long to achieve it, which is full control over hardware and software.

MacOS is amazing on the M1 chips and the integrations between macs, iPads, phones etc is going to get super tight.
There is no company on the planet with any capability at present to get close to this.

 

[bill-p]

So, what do you think will happen, over, perhaps the next decade let's say?
I know AMD are reported to be working on something a little like the M1 in some ways.

I was going to write much more, but I think this can be shortened:

Apple just introduced new baseline for performance and battery life. Other manufacturers may likely focus on that from now on. If Apple doesn't introduce anything new but "more cores, more performance" every year, then I suspect PC manufacturers will catch up to Apple in about 5 years.

But this is Apple. I doubt they'll stay stagnant. They may introduce new MacBooks with certain "killer" features during that time. For instance:

1. Always on (even with the lid closed), with 5G connectivity.
2. Water resistance.
3. A hybrid device that's basically an iPad that can dock on to a keyboard.
4. On the desktop side, maybe an "iMac" that is basically a giant touch screen, with Apple pencil support.

There are many things Apple can do now that they are in complete control of the entire platform. I don't see why Apple has to stop at just a MacBook "redesign" next, seeing as they're already laying the foundation for a device that can run MacOS, iPhone and iPad apps at the same time.

 

[coorsleftfield]

AMD rumored to be working on an Arm-based Apple M1 rival

The rumor comes from hardware leaker Mauri QHD (via NotebookCheck). They write that AMD is working on two versions of the chip—one with integrated RAM and one...

www.techspot.com

 

[Piggie]

AMD rumored to be working on an Arm-based Apple M1 rival

The rumor comes from hardware leaker Mauri QHD (via NotebookCheck). They write that AMD is working on two versions of the chip—one with integrated RAM and one...

www.techspot.com

Indeed. I did hear about this myself a few days ago.

Actually moving on further from this.
Now that Nvidia, which most would accept is the leader in consumer/pro-sumer graphics cards right now, and has been for many years, have purchased ARM.
Give it a few years, Custom ARM hardware developed in conjunction and incorporating Nvidia's graphics knowledge could, I imagine potentially produce some very interesting future hardware.

 

[richinaus]

It’s not just the hardware though, it is the tight integration that makes a Mac special.
For example my PC smashes my macs in terms of speed and is great to use. However the integration is terrible and it feels super clunky. So it’s great for productivity in certain apps but I much prefer a Mac for ‘flow’.
No hardware can beat this.

 

[robco74]

A response would require a level of cooperation that hasn't really worked in the past. Recall back to the days of PowerPC. Apple was going to be but one vendor and MacOS just one option. We saw CHRP, and Macs adopting PCI, SATA, and other PC standards. There were of course, the clones licensing Mac OS from different vendors. Unfortunately, it fizzled, Steve canceled licensing upon his return, and Apple wound up going to Intel a decade later.

You would need buy-in from the CPU makers. They would need to agree on a common ISA. They would also need to agree on specific components to put in the chips. Part of the reason M1 does so well at video editing is because there is hardware acceleration for encoding/decoding different formats. Likewise, there is the Neural Engine, so macOS devs can start targeting that as well. But Intel, AMD, MediaTek, Nvidia, etc. would need to agree upon a baseline feature set, and be willing to share potential improvements with competitors to avoid fragmentation.

Then, you'd need MS, Red Hat, Canonical, Oracle, etc. to agree to support new features and provide frameworks and APIs for third-party devs.

All of that so that third-party developers have a way of utilizing the improvements without too much fuss.

Apple wasn't able to make it work a few decades past. I'm not sure it would be possible now, especially not with the way Nvidia tends to do business - but that could change?

RISC-V is a neat academic exercise, but we're still a decade or so away from competing with current chips.

 

[JouniS]

It’s not just the hardware though, it is the tight integration that makes a Mac special.
For example my PC smashes my macs in terms of speed and is great to use. However the integration is terrible and it feels super clunky. So it’s great for productivity in certain apps but I much prefer a Mac for ‘flow’.
No hardware can beat this.

Tight integration can also be a weakness when you are doing things that are not tightly integrated.

I started using Mac as a replacement for Linux on desktop soon after the Intel transition. I wanted something more user-friendly than KDE and Gnome, but Windows was out of question, because I develop software that runs on Linux servers.

All was good for a while, but things started getting worse with Lion. With every new macOS release, Apple did more things in its own special way, and it took me more and more effort to get things running the way I needed. Catalina was the last straw. After spending two days trying to fix things broken by the upgrade, I gave up and started using an Ubuntu virtual machine for work.

I've been using high-end iMacs and MacBook Pros so far. Given the way Apple is heading, it may soon be more cost-effective to use Linux PCs for work and get a cheaper Mac laptop for personal use.

 

[JohnnyGo]

Tight integration can also be a weakness when you are doing things that are not tightly integrated.

I started using Mac as a replacement for Linux on desktop soon after the Intel transition. I wanted something more user-friendly than KDE and Gnome, but Windows was out of question, because I develop software that runs on Linux servers.

All was good for a while, but things started getting worse with Lion. With every new macOS release, Apple did more things in its own special way, and it took me more and more effort to get things running the way I needed. Catalina was the last straw. After spending two days trying to fix things broken by the upgrade, I gave up and started using an Ubuntu virtual machine for work.

I've been using high-end iMacs and MacBook Pros so far. Given the way Apple is heading, it may soon be more cost-effective to use Linux PCs for work and get a cheaper Mac laptop for personal use.

Maybe.

But maybe Apple silicon MacBooks will be so fast that it will be worthwhile to use it full time and use hypervisor/VM software to run Linux inside macOS

 

[ww1971]

Nothing. Whats holding back progress is Microsoft Windows.

From my experience windows 7 was the last good version. since then windows has gone downhill and had crashed more frequently.

 

[1240766]

From my experience windows 7 was the last good version. since then windows has gone downhill and had crashed more frequently.

Wow, seriously? Windows 10 is very nice

 

[dogslobber]

Once Intel is running on 5nm then the performance advantage will evaporate. We live in a Windows centric world so it’s great for Apple to have a lead but the incompatibilities of these ARM machines mean they’re not useful to most normal users. Mac OS X will continue to be a niche product, even more so due to its inability to run Windows x64 too.

 

[alien3dx]

From my experience windows 7 was the last good version. since then windows has gone downhill and had crashed more frequently.

if you want stable go to server os but no graphic card . Last time win server 2008 is the last os.

My laptop rarely crash for the last i used. Windows 10 and macos big surr both have identity issue being a mobile first ux.

 

[JouniS]

But maybe Apple silicon MacBooks will be so fast that it will be worthwhile to use it full time and use hypervisor/VM software to run Linux inside macOS

On the hardware side, integration means poor cost-effectiveness if your needs deviate from the norm. You often have to buy hardware you don't need or pay a huge premium due to the lack of competition. Apple Silicon may help a bit, but tighter integration may also make things worse.

Just with today's Macs:

• If you want a bigger display, you have to buy a more powerful computer.
• If you want a high-end GPU, you have to buy hardware designed for $10k+ workstations.
• If you want more CPU cores, you may have to pay extra for a bigger display or a more powerful GPU.
• If you want more RAM or SSD, you may have to pay extra for a bigger display or a more powerful CPU/GPU. You may also have to guess in advance how much do you need, because you can't upgrade later, and you have to pay a premium for any additional memory/storage you buy.

My ideal Macs would be a 16" MacBook Air for personal use and a 32" iMac with user-upgradeable memory and storage for work. Neither of those models exist, so I have to make compromises and pay extra to get what I need.

 

[KPOM]

that "junk" displaced mainframes and enabled personal computing for the past 30so years ... not saying that there isn't something better and it needs to be replaced, but calling 3 decades of success "junk" doesn't do it justice either ...

That said, I’m sure if you told an Intel executive back in 1980 that we’d still be using processors based on the x86 architecture in the vast majority of PCs and servers 40 years later, he’d have been highly skeptical, to say the least.

 

[ght56]

The PC response will IMHO depend upon whether or not Apple starts gaining PC marketshare and how willing Microsoft is to continually develop and refine Windows 10 on ARM. I think it will also depend on if Microsoft changes their licensing model and if Apple makes Bootcamp to allow Window 10 on ARM to run natively on Apple Silicon Macs. If this was done, then all of a sudden M1 Macs might become not only the best performing Windows 10 products on the market (and even apps using emulation would presumably be really fast), but they would presumably become some of the best performing for the dollar value.

 

[deconstruct60]

I’m by no means an expert in these matters and am happy to be proven wrong, but this article suggests that Qualcomm at least haven’t yet got much to give in response to the M1.

Where is the Qualcomm Snapdragon that will challenge Apple’s M1 Macs?

Qualcomm could have announced its plans to take on Apple's M1 with an upcoming Snapdragon Compute chip for Windows on Arm. Instead, the topic was barely mentioned at the company's Snapdragon Technology Summit.

www.pcworld.com

The 888 is a smartphone chip was the primary focus of their tech day. There is one Cortex X1 core there. ( three other 'lessor' bigs , and four small ). If Qualcomm grew the die and swapped in four x1 cores they would have something that is better matched to being a PC processor at the lower end of the ultra-light laptop spectrum. It would not "defeat" the M1, but it would be way better than tossing an overclocked 888 into a PC and calling it a day.

Apple is spending lots of transistor budget on large System cache ( and large l2 caches ) and other stuff. And zero on a 4G/LTE/5G Modem. There is a decent chunk in Qualcomm's chip that Apple just doesn't do right now.
Qualcomm is aimed at a slightly different objective and spot on the PC market.

By the time their response does come out, Apple will no doubt already be moving on to their next generation chip. I’m sure Intel and co will catch up, but they may lose market share in the short term.

"...Having the capability of that 5G PC with the small cells to go into an enterprise is a very, very attractive formula for all of the carriers. So that channel is going to start to open up, Microsoft is 100% behind us as a partner to try to get all of the apps, all of the 64 bit emulations up and running and resolve all these issues. And on top of that, there's Apple who's now in the market and everyone wants to react to it. .... "

Qualcomm Tech Summit 2020: Interview with Alex Katouzian

www.anandtech.com

Part of the issue is that Qualcomm probably needs someone to step up a firm commitment to buy a large block (i.e., several millions) before they will "fork" too far off of their smartphone target SoC design. That could have been Microsoft. Or it could be another vendor and Microsoft is another partner in the effort.

It wouldn't necssarily take a long time for Qualcomm to ship a variation on the 888 that swapped four Cortex X1 cores.

Qualcomm Details The Snapdragon 888: 3rd Gen 5G & Cortex-X1 on 5nm

www.anandtech.com

It just wouldn't be a good smartphone SoC anymore. ( larger and more power consuming when running full out. ). That wouldn't be tech that Qualcomm doesn't have at the moment. It is a different configuration that will make more sense once yields on Samsung's 5nm get incrementally better (for a bigger die product. ).

As long as Qualcomm and others ( Microsoft? ) keep paying ARM to insert a gap between their targeted smartphone cores and the something "better" X-series , that "better" core can start making better inroads against what Apple has been doing.

If all Qualcomm has for the next 9-12 months is warmed over C8X/SQ1/SQ2 then they'll ( and PC market) will have problems.

The PC market probably won't respond to the whole M-series line up. The focal point will probably be concentrated at blunting the MBA as opposed to the other Macs farther up the line up.

 

[amartinez1660]

If I knew the answer to this question I'd be buying stock instead of writing a response here

Seriously though, Apple doesn't have a lock on processor design. It's my opinion Apple took a number things and combined them together into a great processor. Things like the SoC concept, 5nm process technology, on chip memory, unified memory, etc. Taken individually these provide decent, but not earth shattering, improvements in performance. Combined together and we get the M1.

What will be interesting is whether Apple can sustain such improvements. Have they used up all the tricks in their bag? Or do they have more to come? I kind of liken this to a foot race. Did Apple come out with a burst of energy to take the lead early on? Will they be able to maintain the pace? Or will they become exhausted and other runners will pass them by?

I don't have the answers but I am very interested in the long game.

I had a look at this video and they also show that Anandtech graph of the performance increase of Apple chips vs Intel... doesn’t seem to be like a exhaustion race and more like a steady marathonist at a constant speed pace slowly increasing the ground gained over a very long period of time whose training and chosen pace was prepared before... it’s too constant. And being closer to a decade of a steady pace, I don’t think it would suddenly stagnate but we will see...