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What will it take for Apple to overtake Android's vast marketshare?

Calidude

Calidude

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Jun 22, 2010
1,730
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iKy5h.gif


As we can see, Apple is really trailing behind in units sold. It seems that the mobile space is going to be a rehash of what happened with Windows and OSX, with Android playing the Windows role.

Say you're Tim Cook and you don't want to be a distant 2nd but rather, the king of the hill.

What needs to happen?
 
Calidude said:
Image

As we can see, Apple is really trailing behind in units sold. It seems that the mobile space is going to be a rehash of what happened with Windows and OSX, with Android playing the Windows role.

Say you're Tim Cook and you don't want to be a distant 2nd but rather, the king of the hill.

What needs to happen?
Click to expand...

Apple makes tons of profits in the market, so they will be just fine. Now, profits don't matter in this discussion so.

Will Apple ever become the top dog of the smartphone market as far as userbase goes?

No. Android will become the " windows " of smartphones.
 
Apple makes a phone, Android doesn't. Compare apple to Samsung then talk about how much money they have.
 
G51989 said:
No. Android will become the " windows " of smartphones.
Click to expand...
You know what's really going to be interesting?

As you can see, RIM and Symbian are what Android and iOS are eating up the most. Right now, people are just moving from the old to the new as a transition phase.

When Symbian and Bada are fully dead and RIM goes into a standstill at like 2% along with Windows Phone and Tizen (what Bada is merging into), Android will start eating iOS marketshare and widdle it down bit by bit...

That's when things will get truly frightening for iOS users. :eek:
 
To be fair this is probably the worst quarter for iOS sales. 2Q11 was when people were holding off for the 'iPhone 5' and 2Q12 is people holding off for the actual iPhone 5.

All of Google's gains in the last year appear to be from RIM and Symbian - perhaps that says something about the people who are switching from Blackberry and Nokia phones. Android is spread across a huge number of handsets, iOS is spread over 1 (2 if including the 3GS). If someone is looking for a cheaper smartphone, it'll be an Android. What's more amazing is Apple have a 20% market share with just one phone!

Anyway I don't think Apple wants nor needs to overtake Google in market share. What's more important is they are the market leader in profitability. These market share stats are calculated through internet browsing, but people actually spend more time a day on apps on smart phones. Apple makes more apps, more are downloaded and more money is made on each app by both Apple and the developer. Every $1.00 generated on iOS by an app corresponds to $0.24 in revenue for the Android version (Flurry Analytics).

For the profitability to change, we'd have to see developers make Android only apps. Which they won't, because making apps for iOS is more profitable for them, and so iOS is always their primary platform.
 
Calidude said:
You know what's really going to be interesting?

..
..

When Symbian and Bada are fully dead and RIM goes into a standstill at like 2% along with Windows Phone and Tizen (what Bada is merging into), Android will start eating iOS marketshare and widdle it down bit by bit...

That's when things will get truly frightening for iOS users. :eek:
Click to expand...

^^ Yes, It is a distinct possibility and something that we might see happening in about a year or so.

btw, contrary to what a lot of tech bloggers predicted, Android adoption seems to have skyrocketed after Google IO, with 1.3 Million devices(70k tablets) per day getting activated. This is up from 1 Million during the Google/IO only two months ago.

By July next year there will be at least 1.5 Billion Android devices and about 2 Million activations per day. The most amazing thing is that Android adoption is not merely "growing" but is growing in an exponential rate! Its akin to a car not just accelerating..but accelerating its rate of acceleration.

The numbers are quite scary, tbh. :eek:
 
1) make more than one phone (not gonna happen).
2) license iOS to other manufacturers (definitely not gonna happen).

so in conclusion, Apple/iOS will never overtake Android.
 
digital.l0gic said:
btw, contrary to what a lot of tech bloggers predicted, Android adoption seems to have skyrocketed after Google IO
Click to expand...
People want a desktop-like experience on their phone and Windows Phone and iOS aren't cutting it, so they're going with Android.

Bloggers should have predicted this.
 
Last edited:
Calidude said:
People want a desktop-like experience on their phone and Windows Phone and iOS isn't cutting it, so they're going with Android.

Bloggers should have predicted this.
Click to expand...

Yep, and the limitations(IOS users are free to disagree) with the IOS makes me feel that my ease of use/productivity is severely limited.

Some of the functions I most commonly use in my Android phones cannot be done with IOS.

1 Drag and drop file transfer
2 Multiple File format/media format support

are but some of the few.


The problem with a lot of bloggers, especially the ones from so called "Tech sites"(Im looking at you tech Crunch) is that they do not have a background in technology. Often they are liberal arts majors(I have nothing against them! I hasten to add) who take on a "tech Blogger" role. They have neither the tech-background...nor even general tech knowledge to properly review/appreciate existing tech..let alone predict future trends.

PS: The verge is one of the better tech blogs...AnandTech the best(but its mostly only for product review)
 
Last edited:
Calidude said:
People want a desktop-like experience on their phone and Windows Phone and iOS isn't cutting it, so they're going with Android.

Bloggers should have predicted this.
Click to expand...

You mean Tech-people want a desktop-like experience. Every 16 year old girl wants an iPhone, every 50 year old getting their first smartphone wants an iPhone because marketing tells them it is the "best".
 
Southernboyj said:
You mean Tech-people want a desktop-like experience. Every 16 year old girl wants an iPhone, every 50 year old getting their first smartphone wants an iPhone because marketing tells them it is the "best".
Click to expand...
They're not the majority of smartphone consumers. That would be the 18-35 year old male and female crowd.
 
Southernboyj said:
You mean Tech-people want a desktop-like experience. Every 16 year old girl wants an iPhone, every 50 year old getting their first smartphone wants an iPhone because marketing tells them it is the "best".
Click to expand...

From what I notice, most of the younger generation is into Android nowadays. Its considered the "cool" thing now. It was not the case when iphone was the only show on the road..but the trend has passed now.
 
Calidude said:
They're not the majority of smartphone consumers. That would be the 18-35 year old male and female crowd.
Click to expand...

I'd argue high school kids with their iPhones are a decent bit of the market. I've fairly young myself (In college atm) and when I told a lot of my friends I switched to Android from my iPhone they were all shocked and wanted to know why. (Well at least the less tech-savvy of them)
 
Greg. said:
iOS is spread over 1 (2 if including the 3GS). If someone is looking for a cheaper smartphone, it'll be an Android. What's more amazing is Apple have a 20% market share with just one phone!
Click to expand...

iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, iPhone 4S.

Tell us again how many phones Apple has in the market...
 
This is purely based on observation among my personal circle of family and friends.

A lot of people that I know who used Android 2.3 or lower, either want to or switched to the iPhone. It's that, or they get a newer Android.

As for existing iPhone owners, a lot more are looking at other options than the 'next' iPhone. Those who have used the iPhone for a while (3-5 years), tend to say the iOS is the biggest reason why they want to leave. Even I am guilty of it.

I've talked to people who thought about leaving the iPhone/iPad yet don't because they're afraid of losing all their iTunes and the App Store goodies.

I can't predict what people will buy, but it 'feels' like Android is getting things together and can actually be a competitive choice to the iPhone/iOS. All I know is I'm interested in seeing the market share reports for 2013 and onwards.
 
Southernboyj said:
I'd argue high school kids with their iPhones are a decent bit of the market. I've fairly young myself (In college atm) and when I told a lot of my friends I switched to Android from my iPhone they were all shocked and wanted to know why. (Well at least the less tech-savvy of them)
Click to expand...
They're a decent bit, but not the bit that really makes the market.
 
dejo said:
Source?
Click to expand...
Adults aged 24 to 34 showed the highest proportion of smartphone ownership: 66 percent indicated they owned a smartphone. Overall smartphone penetration in the U.S., according to Nielsen, was at 48 percent in January.

Nielsen also found that, in general, for all age groups, the more money people make, the more likely they are to own a smartphone. Youngsters 18 to 24, however, skew higher for smartphone ownership even at lower salaries.
Click to expand...
http://venturebeat.com/2012/02/20/smartphones-age-and-income/
 
Greg. said:
To be fair this is probably the worst quarter for iOS sales. 2Q11 was when people were holding off for the 'iPhone 5' and 2Q12 is people holding off for the actual iPhone 5.

All of Google's gains in the last year appear to be from RIM and Symbian - perhaps that says something about the people who are switching from Blackberry and Nokia phones. Android is spread across a huge number of handsets, iOS is spread over 1 (2 if including the 3GS). If someone is looking for a cheaper smartphone, it'll be an Android. What's more amazing is Apple have a 20% market share with just one phone!

Anyway I don't think Apple wants nor needs to overtake Google in market share. What's more important is they are the market leader in profitability. These market share stats are calculated through internet browsing, but people actually spend more time a day on apps on smart phones. Apple makes more apps, more are downloaded and more money is made on each app by both Apple and the developer. Every $1.00 generated on iOS by an app corresponds to $0.24 in revenue for the Android version (Flurry Analytics).

For the profitability to change, we'd have to see developers make Android only apps. Which they won't, because making apps for iOS is more profitable for them, and so iOS is always their primary platform.
Click to expand...

There are 3 iOS phones available and one is free with a contract. If you prefer iOS you won't spend money on an Android phone if you can buy a 3GS for 1 cent. That's the cheapest anyway...

Good point with profitability though. Apple cleans up with their 40-50% profit margin on there phones. Its incredible, I do sales on occasion and if I was able to get that profit then I literally just ripped someone off....literally. Yet Apple STILL has people lining up around Apple stores...its truly incredible.
 
Calidude said:
Image

As we can see, Apple is really trailing behind in units sold. It seems that the mobile space is going to be a rehash of what happened with Windows and OSX, with Android playing the Windows role.

Say you're Tim Cook and you don't want to be a distant 2nd but rather, the king of the hill.

What needs to happen?
Click to expand...

I dont think it will happen. The iPhones(iOS) biggest marketshare is in the USA. It gets killed everywhere else. Especially in Spain where its 86% Android there to iOS's 2.9%.

kantar-august-2012-market-share.jpg


However,.... how you ask? Maybe make bigger screens than 4" and include width as well and give more features. Do those and its a good start. Or, they could keep suing and hope for the best.
 
So... how the hell is Apple gonna overtake with a 3.5'' phone? Overall Android gives users a choices while Apple does not. So Apple can never overtake their marketshare.
 
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