whats with the aapl stock drop

[erandall38]

It is tough, but with AAPL it always seems these big dips come and then very quickly go back up. I have only owned AAPL since the low 80's but since then I have learned that with dips you buy buy buy.
I am worried this case is different, or will it be the same where I hit my self and say "I should have bought just like on every other dip." This drop compared more to the drop we had in August, both were problems with our economy. One big difference I am seeing is that all though they are both about a 13% drop the one in August took one month, the recent one took 3 days.
So now the question is are we hitting a recession or did we just have a correction? I was watching a video and this could be one way to figure it out. If AAPL hits the 161 mark and holds, we could be good, but if it falls down below 161 (and not just temporarily) then we could be headed down for a while. 161 is the 50 day moving average. Check out the video here, it is pretty interesting, but I am not sure how credible the Fibonacci method is. Also if you are only interested in AAPL then just watch the first minute or so. http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2007/11/nasdaq-leaders.html

 

[xenotaku]

wow, well i just kissed goodbye 20k in the last week.

 

[Feverish Flux]

What the hell is going on?

$157.65 and dipping...

 

[xenotaku]

i have no idea, but its getting annoying. There isn't even a reason for the dip, everyone is taking profits because they are getting scared, and that in turn makes it dip more and then more people get scared, and its just dropping out of control now....

 

[giaotze]

Time to buy if it hits below 150
Woot

 

[gr8tfly]

Time to buy if it hits below 150
Woot

That was my number too. I've been thinking of placing a stop-limit at 150.

 

[Unspeaked]

It is tough, but with AAPL it always seems these big dips come and then very quickly go back up. I have only owned AAPL since the low 80's but since then I have learned that with dips you buy buy buy.

I don't care how you feel it will do long term, anyone who bought in the 80's and hasn't taken a little something off the table in the past few weeks as it hit the 180's is being *very* greedy.

I'm not saying you should have closed out your position, but a little profit taking on 125% gains is more than wise...

 

[ccwilli3]

another big drop. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. Live by that motto in the stock market! If you didn't get out near the peak after earnings, it's going to take a while to recoup these losses...

I'm personally hoping for it to sell off into the 130s...

 

[Cybergypsy]

wow, well i just kissed goodbye 20k in the last week.

I wish i only lost 20K.......

 

[ktodack]

Baby with the dishwater

Looks like big investors are bailing on any tech stock that has had good performance over the last six months. It's a real puzzle why Apple is getting hit even harder then the rest of Nasdaq. Of all the tech stocks Apple stands to gain the most over the next quarter--For Christmas it's flat screen HDTV's and Apple branded products. Just looks like big investors are looking for a major recession and a bad Christmas. I think it's way overblown, mortgage problems effect a lot of people-- but not that many to cause the overselling thats occured over the last week. Apple at $154--it's crazy

 

[IJ Reilly]

Looking for logic in the stock market -- good luck with that.

FWIW, there's very little investing going on anymore, it's all about trading. These days, momentum means more than fundamentals, at least in the short run.

As for those who argue that it's automatically wise to have taken money off the table in the 180s, I say that's only possible to say with perfect 20-20 hindsight. I've held on for ten years and plan on continuing to hold on because over the long haul, it's never been the wrong decision to do so. The point is, I don't know enough to be a trader, so I have to be an investor.

 

[erandall38]

I don't care how you feel it will do long term, anyone who bought in the 80's and hasn't taken a little something off the table in the past few weeks as it hit the 180's is being *very* greedy.

I'm not saying you should have closed out your position, but a little profit taking on 125% gains is more than wise...

I had a response typed out but i realized it was a waste of time. People who know this company and study it and study its financials love people like you. Keep using your method on AAPL because I love getting stock and options at a discount. Thanks!

 

[Unspeaked]

I had a response typed out but i realized it was a waste of time. People who know this company and study it and study its financials love people like you. Keep using your method on AAPL because I love getting stock and options at a discount. Thanks!

You're welcome!

And I'm sure the people who sold after the first drop from the $190s to the $180s had a ball picking their shares back up in the $150s yesterday! Nothing like an extra 20% of AAPL shares for free (less capital gains, of course)...

 

[erandall38]

You're welcome!

And I'm sure the people who sold after the first drop from the $190s to the $180s had a ball picking their shares back up in the $150s yesterday! Nothing like an extra 20% of AAPL shares for free (less capital gains, of course)...

Well whoever those people are who can time the market perfectly should sell their crystal ball for lots of money.
Do you know the likleyhood of timing the market like that? What about all the people that use that method and tried doing it at 89, 95, 105, etc? They lost out on so many gains for the *chance* that they could make more off of some correction they think is needed because the stock is growing????? There was some report a few months back that came out from meryl lynch a few months ago. It said something along the lines of: that 7 of the top trading days last year made up 50% of the growth for the year, so why play the timing game and possibly miss out on those days?? If you want to play games play options?

 

[IJ Reilly]

Well whoever those people are who can time the market perfectly should sell their crystal ball for lots of money.

They should definitely quit their day jobs.

 

[Unspeaked]

Well whoever those people are who can time the market perfectly should sell their crystal ball for lots of money.
Do you know the likleyhood of timing the market like that? What about all the people that use that method and tried doing it at 89, 95, 105, etc? They lost out on so many gains for the *chance* that they could make more off of some correction they think is needed because the stock is growing????? There was some report a few months back that came out from meryl lynch a few months ago. It said something along the lines of: that 7 of the top trading days last year made up 50% of the growth for the year, so why play the timing game and possibly miss out on those days?? If you want to play games play options?

Oh, I'm sorry - the OP I was replying to said they bought at 80 and I said they should have taken some off the table when it doubled.

Since when is a 100% gain not a good return?

Even if someone who bought in the 80s sold in the 160s back in September and never got a chance to buy back, they still doubled their money. That's not a good enough return for you?

In any case, getting back to the person I was originally replying to, I said they should have sold part of their holding when they were up over 100% and kept the rest. At that point, they'd have made a handsome return, gotten back all their original investment and continued to play with house money from here on it, letting it ride to whereever with zero risk. How is this a bad move? I would take certain 100% returns and free play money over buying and holding anyday.

 

[IJ Reilly]

Since when is a 100% gain not a good return?.

Here's when. If I'd have followed your advice, I would have sold out about eight years ago and missed the opportunity to multiply my investment many times over.

My basis for the AAPL I'm holding now happens to be about $5.00/share. There's really no "risk" to my hanging on through these downturns, nauseating though they may be, because experience has told me that they are temporary.

 

[Unspeaked]

Here's when. If I'd have followed your advice, I would have sold out about eight years ago and missed the opportunity to multiply my investment many times over.

My basis for the AAPL I'm holding now happens to be about $5.00/share. There's really no "risk" to my hanging on through these downturns, nauseating though they may be, because experience has told me that they are temporary.

You wouldn't have missed out on the opportunity to multiply your investment because you would have kept a position.

The only thing you would have done for certain was make a return, which you couldn't have been sure of in the future, just as someone who bought Apple under $100 could make a certain return today or hold not sell it and make a possible return in the future (but also a loss).

That's why I advocate selling enough to make back your original investment, and letting the rest ride.

Sure, in your example with AAPL eight years ago, you'd have missed out on a lot of gains; but in 95% of cases you wouldn't have. Heck, even a stable tech company like ADBE has only now just gotten back to the highs it set eight years ago. Somebody who bought it back then and held would be looking at no gains whatsoever.

Everyone's acting like I'm being the risky one here, but investors that don't take some gains when presented with them and let them ride and no better than folks who double their money in Vegas and lose it all because they didn't cash out in time.

(Again, let me reiterate: you, IJ Reilly, have done a good thing, but your situation isn't the norm here...)

 

[IJ Reilly]

You wouldn't have missed out on the opportunity to multiply your investment because you would have kept a position.

The only thing you would have done for certain was make a return, which you couldn't have been sure of in the future, just as someone who bought Apple under $100 could make a certain return today or hold not sell it and make a possible return in the future (but also a loss).

That's why I advocate selling enough to make back your original investment, and letting the rest ride.

Sure, in your example with AAPL eight years ago, you'd have missed out on a lot of gains; but in 95% of cases you wouldn't have. Heck, even a stable tech company like ADBE has only now just gotten back to the highs it set eight years ago. Somebody who bought it back then and held would be looking at no gains whatsoever.

Everyone's acting like I'm being the risky one here, but investors that don't take some gains when presented with them and let them ride and no better than folks who double their money in Vegas and lose it all because they didn't cash out in time.

(Again, let me reiterate: you, IJ Reilly, have done a good thing, but your situation isn't the norm here...)

I understand what you are saying. It's certainly not an unsound approach to investing, but by the same token, there's no such thing as a one-size-fits-all strategy.

Incidentally, I have sold some of my AAPL position, so my initial investment was covered a long time ago. I have often wished I'd held onto those shares, too. No regrets, though. You do what you do when you need to do it.

In general terms, I'd say if you think you understand the company and the risks of investing in it, then this knowledge should guide your investing decisions more than the stock price on any given day, especially when traders are rushing into and out of the stock for no obvious reason. Wall Street is a very emotional place. A little guy investor can't afford to get swept up in it, because they will almost always get trampled.

 

[erandall38]

You wouldn't have missed out on the opportunity to multiply your investment because you would have kept a position.

The only thing you would have done for certain was make a return, which you couldn't have been sure of in the future, just as someone who bought Apple under $100 could make a certain return today or hold not sell it and make a possible return in the future (but also a loss).

That's why I advocate selling enough to make back your original investment, and letting the rest ride.

Sure, in your example with AAPL eight years ago, you'd have missed out on a lot of gains; but in 95% of cases you wouldn't have. Heck, even a stable tech company like ADBE has only now just gotten back to the highs it set eight years ago. Somebody who bought it back then and held would be looking at no gains whatsoever.

Everyone's acting like I'm being the risky one here, but investors that don't take some gains when presented with them and let them ride and no better than folks who double their money in Vegas and lose it all because they didn't cash out in time.

(Again, let me reiterate: you, IJ Reilly, have done a good thing, but your situation isn't the norm here...)

When investing you really have to understand the internals and externals of the company you are investing in, like Reilly said above, this will guide your investment decisions. I guess with what I know about this company and how this economy is effecting it I felt that if it dips you buy. How many people freaked out and said we need to take some of our large gains and missed the $15 rally? Now some of them are buying back after missing the rally AND paying capital gains taxes. And out of all those people how many actually perfectly timed the market to make it worth it?
In the state AAPL is in right now and yes even with how the economy is right now you buy on AAPL dips b/c it is on sale.

I hope I am not coming across as being offensive, I really enjoy exchanging investment strategies/ideas. This helps me keep an open mind as well as objective investment style.
Thanks to all who have been participating.

edit: IJ Reilly, congrats on holding that long, I doubt there are many people that can say they did that let alone many people that could handle it through all the years.

 

[Dave00]

The volatility comes with speculation. When I bought apple last year, it was because it had a good value and a bright future, and the P/E was reasonable. Sales of iPods and Macs were increasing. It was a good value.

Now, however, there's a lot of speculation on board. At its peak a few weeks ago, the P/E was around 50. Given that traditional P/E for a tech stock is around 20, that means the market is anticipating the earnings more than doubling. That's a lot of speculation. Add to that the folks who look at the stock's price chart and try to impute some sort of predictive power, and it becomes a roller coaster. It's like the birds on the beach. One gets spooked, and those around it take off, and pretty soon you have a mass evacuation of a stretch of beach. Could've been because of a real danger, or because the first bird had an itch. You can see this a lot with three growth stocks - Apple, Google, and RIM. They go up and down like escalators with no rhyme or reason. Trying to go along with this, or predict when it's going to happen, is a good way to get burned. That's why, consistently, people that trade more frequently have poorer results than those that buy and hold.

Another example - look at ETrade. The stock lost a mind-boggling 60% of its value in one day. Was it in response to poor earnings, a CEO scandal, or the loss of a major client? Nope. Just some supposed guru at Citi saying they had a 15% chance of going bankrupt. Same thing happened to aapl around the time of release of the iPhone when an analyst reported he heard a rumor sales weren't that good (and not even for a good rumor site like this one.)

Best thing to do is to find a good company you know something about, figure out how much it's worth, and wait for it to go on sale after some bad news. When you sell depends much less on the stock price than whether the fundamentals that made it a good buy have changed. Does Apple have the potential to justify basically spending twice what it's currently worth? I happen to think it does, which is why I've held onto it despite the price having nearly tripled since when I bought it. If the price were to drop below 30x earnings, I'd probably buy more. Now, if they start releasing clunker products, then that's time to sell, no matter what the price.

Apple up 10% today. Crazy.

Dave

 

[erandall38]

Another example - look at ETrade. The stock lost a mind-boggling 60% of its value in one day. Was it in response to poor earnings, a CEO scandal, or the loss of a major client? Nope. Just some supposed guru at Citi saying they had a 15% chance of going bankrupt. Same thing happened to aapl around the time of release of the iPhone when an analyst reported he heard a rumor sales weren't that good (and not even for a good rumor site like this one.)



Dave

= manipulation

speaking of the which, you know who I really dislike? Jim Cramer.


What is everyones view on Apple's contingency plan? Any ideas of what they would do if Steve Jobs was no longer the CEO whether it was under his control or not?

This is the thing I have been trying to really look up on lately. I think loosing Steve Jobs to an unplanned, unfortunate situation would take a huge bite out of AAPL, again I would not try to time the market. Apple's fundamentals would not change directly because Steve Jobs was gone, but the new CEO could change Apple's fundamentals through his future actions. This could be a time to get out....
Who are the possibilities?

 

[IJ Reilly]

edit: IJ Reilly, congrats on holding that long, I doubt there are many people that can say they did that let alone many people that could handle it through all the years.

WHO SAID I COULD HANDLE IT? IT'S DRIVING ME FREAKING NUTS!!!

Sorry. Thanks.

Now, however, there's a lot of speculation on board. At its peak a few weeks ago, the P/E was around 50. Given that traditional P/E for a tech stock is around 20, that means the market is anticipating the earnings more than doubling. That's a lot of speculation. Add to that the folks who look at the stock's price chart and try to impute some sort of predictive power, and it becomes a roller coaster. It's like the birds on the beach. One gets spooked, and those around it take off, and pretty soon you have a mass evacuation of a stretch of beach. Could've been because of a real danger, or because the first bird had an itch.

I like your analogy. An economics prof I had in college asked the class if a depression could be caused by a rooster crowing on Mt. Everest. The answer is yes, if people believed that a rooster crowing on Mt. Everest would cause a depression, then it could. The point is, markets are all about mass psychology. I've always remembered that lesson.

I'm a little wary of quoting trailing P/E though. For a rapidly-growing company like Apple, this is not a good way of predicting future earnings. At the very least, you should be looking at forward P/E as well. This is an estimate/educated guess of course but at least it's an estimate about the future, instead of statement about the past.

 

[Dave00]

What is everyones view on Apple's contingency plan? Any ideas of what they would do if Steve Jobs was no longer the CEO whether it was under his control or not?

There's no way to know. Life is unpredictable. You never know when someone is going to get sick or have a midlife crisis or just be ready to retire. How the company will do after his departure has to do with how well he is training his upper-level management. People that manage with a tight reign are harder to replace than those who delegate. No idea how Jobs manages. In an industry like that, you need to be constantly taking risks, but they have to be the right risks. The iMac, iPod, iTMS, switch to Intel, and iPhone have all been enormous risks. Jury's still out on the iPhone, but everything else was a home run. They've also had some big risk failures, such as the Cube (I'm still not sure why the Cube failed but Mac Mini was such a success). They need to keep taking risks. I still think a media center (more robust than the Apple TV) has great potential. Even the Apple TV itself has some easy-to-fix annoyances that could greatly expand the product base. Why no on/off switch? (My #1 peeve) And why only YouTube on the internet? I'd love to have a nice weather widget or phone book.

Ok done with my tangent. But basically, I'm hoping Jobs is training others to be able to make the kinds of decisions he has over the past few years.

 

[Dave00]

I'm a little wary of quoting trailing P/E though. For a rapidly-growing company like Apple, this is not a good way of predicting future earnings. At the very least, you should be looking at forward P/E as well. This is an estimate/educated guess of course but at least it's an estimate about the future, instead of statement about the past.

True, the trailing P/E can be misleading if a situation is in flux. Countrywide Financial, for instance, has a trailing P/E of just 3.8, which makes it sound like a good buy until you realize that earnings are being crushed by the mortgage problems. But forward P/E has the disadvantage of being based on prediction, whereas trailing P/E is based on hard numbers, assuming the company isn't fudging their books. If the trailing P/E is high, you're expecting the earnings to go up - the higher the P/E, the greater the amount it has to grow in order to justify the price. There are certain multiples I just won't touch. I love Amazon, but I'm not going to pay 92x earnings for it, as I just don't see it quadrupling any time soon. Same for Research in Motion at P/E of 70-ish. For Google, as great a company as it is, to justify its 51 P/E multiple, you have to think they're going to double. I'd rather buy them on sale, which I think is going to happen- if Cisco saying people might be cutting back on their tech spending was enough to send completely unrelated stocks into a tailspin, imagine what's going to happen when something really does happen.

Part of owning apple stock, however, is not about making money. It's about owning a piece of a company whose products you enjoy and whose innovation you want to support.