Seeing as how the M2 made it into the MBP in Jan. And the M2 was put in the recently launched in 15 Air — when do you think we will see the M3 in a MBP? I imagine the Air and the iPad will get it first. Typically that's fall. But I also don't think they will update the 15 Air with an M3 in less than 6 months. Additionally it wouldn't make sense to put it in the 13 and not the 15, but they have done things like that...so who knows.
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When do you think we see the M3?
- Thread starter mashinhead
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I’d say around Q1 2024 for M3. The Pro and Ultra versions, maybe 6 months later.
I expect an 18 month cycle. We just "finished" the M2 cycle, so the cycle starts again next year with M3, M3 Pro/Max, then M3 Ultra.
M1: Nov 2020 release
M1 > M2: 19.5 months refresh cycle
M1 Ultra > M2 Ultra: 15 months refresh cycle
M3: Q1 2024 if 19.5 months refresh cycle continues
M3 Ultra: Q1 2025 if 15 months refresh cycle continues
There was a rumor that Apple wanted to shorten and align it to the iPhone's 12 month cycle that starts in September.
Doing this would align iPhone chip cores with Mac chip cores. Example would be Ray Tracing GPU cores for the iPhone 3 months from now. If the M3 were to appear by Nov 2023 then it would receive Ray Tracing GPU cores as well.
M1 > M2: 19.5 months refresh cycle
M1 Ultra > M2 Ultra: 15 months refresh cycle
M3: Q1 2024 if 19.5 months refresh cycle continues
M3 Ultra: Q1 2025 if 15 months refresh cycle continues
There was a rumor that Apple wanted to shorten and align it to the iPhone's 12 month cycle that starts in September.
Doing this would align iPhone chip cores with Mac chip cores. Example would be Ray Tracing GPU cores for the iPhone 3 months from now. If the M3 were to appear by Nov 2023 then it would receive Ray Tracing GPU cores as well.
It's never a good time to buy anything that sits on a yearly upgrade cycle it seems lol.
Just picked up my M2 Pro and suddenly the M3 Pro is right around the corner
- M3: Q1 2024
- M3 Pro/Max: between these 2 quarters like say WWDC 2024
- M3 Ultra: Q1 2025
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It's never a good time to buy anything that sits on a yearly upgrade cycle it seems lol.
Just picked up my M2 Pro and suddenly the M3 Pro is right around the corner
It’s likely an 18-month cycle.
Apple's Vision Pro headset uses M2, so until that is on sale, I don't expect to see any M3 device at all. And Vision Pro is still basically a whole year away.
I expect the vision pro to ship with the M3. It’s a year away from shipping. In my view they announced it with an m2 because they haven’t announced the M3 yet.
No, it's shipping with M2 and R1. They specifically mentioned this multiple times.
I know it's reasonable to be anxious about the chip that's on the horizon, but if we break down what's happening to that next chip, it makes sense: iPhone will most likely get it first. Say... around Christmas. That's probably enough to hold Apple over for this year. Maybe they'll also announce an iPad or so to solidify the deal.
Then by Q1, if TSMC can meet enough shipments of the chips to iPhones and iPads, then Apple can start to introduce Mac Mini and MacBook Air, assuming an iPad Pro with the new M3 chip will have been introduced before that even. And then the Pro will follow if TSMC can again meet enough shipments. Note that M2 Pro devices were introduced way after MacBook Air 13 with M2 chip. It's clear Apple is on a much longer release cycle with Macs. Likely 18 months or even longer.
I would have expected the M3 to hit in November, but since the 15“ MBA has been announced, I now expect it in January instead.
Anybody who works in marketing knows that makes zero sense.
You don't burn "M2" and "2 hour battery life" into the memories of millions of people unless that's what is being delivered.
Have you ever considered that Apple might pull in their shipping date? Why do some people keep thinking it must be late.
It's called surprise and delight — a long held apple core tenant. No one will get mad if they have a better processor and better battery life. A lot of people will get mad if they are paying 3500 when all the other products are migrating to a new processor.
M3 MacBook (Air) comes to the fall 😉
The M3 pro/max/ultra comes later, as 'usual'
The M3 pro/max/ultra comes later, as 'usual'
Nothing like surprising developers with a new processor when they’ve been developing VP apps for M2 features and performance. 😄😄
Think about the big picture, not just what you want and wish for.
Hence the other products are not migrating to a new processor any time soon. The M2 MacBook Air 15" is a good indication of that.
Mac also needs to wait for iPhones and iPads to be all updated, and Apple has a lot of iPhones and iPads to update this fall and in Q1 of next year. I would say it is more reasonable to expect a MacBook refresh with M3 during WWDC next year.
Also, Apple has not surprised and delighted at all for the past 10 years.
I would HOPE at some point Apple go back to justifying new releases of machines based on more than just the M chip. At some point, an M3 Macbook Air/Pro/whatever in the same body isn't actually newsworthy.
That's probably one of the biggest reasons behind Vision Pro. At the end of the day, a Mac is a Mac. Nobody upgrades their notebook as often as their iPhone. Apple can't justify refreshing the M-series as often as A-series if it's only for Mac or iPad.
Anyone in marketing knows it makes 0 sense to announce it with an M3 when at the same event you’re launching a MBA with an M2. Also, you miss the opportunity to market the M3 in the fall with the release of new mac hardware. I think it makes way more sense to call it M2 for now and then surprise people at the end of a mac hardware event by saying the M3 will also be coming to the vision pro.
in terms of developers, everything they develop for the M2 will work with the M3. There’s not even dev kits so I don’t think the surprise upgrade would be an issue at all - it’d just be a welcome surprise.
Just because other people don’t agree with you, it doesn’t mean they’re “just thinking about what they want”. I totally respect your view that it’ll be an M2 btw - it’s fun to discuss
Bear in mind that you still have the iPad Air with the M1. The rumor mills suggests that we won't see an M2 iMac and that we'll instead see M3 iMacs, while the M1 MacBook Air is clearly left in the lineup to be a lower-end/yesteryear model. I'd guess this fall at the absolute earliest and Spring at the absolute latest. M1 had a longer cycle due to supply chain issues; I'd imagine M2's reign will be shorter.
One other thing to consider is that Vision Pro is launching with M2. It'd be a little...lame if Apple's brand new product category released with an SoC at the same time as that SoC's successor.
One other thing to consider is that Vision Pro is launching with M2. It'd be a little...lame if Apple's brand new product category released with an SoC at the same time as that SoC's successor.
Anyone in marketing knows it makes 0 sense to announce it with an M3 when at the same event you’re launching a MBA with an M2. Also, you miss the opportunity to market the M3 in the fall with the release of new mac hardware. I think it makes way more sense to call it M2 for now and then surprise people at the end of a mac hardware event by saying the M3 will also be coming to the vision pro.
in terms of developers, everything they develop for the M2 will work with the M3. There’s not even dev kits so I don’t think the surprise upgrade would be an issue at all - it’d just be a welcome surprise.
Just because other people don’t agree with you, it doesn’t mean they’re “just thinking about what they want”. I totally respect your view that it’ll be an M2 btw - it’s fun to discuss
The obvious solution would be for Apple to call it, "Next Gen Apple Custom Silicon."
See how simple that was? It wouldn't cause any problems with selling M2 MBA, burning "M2" into the memories of millions of customers learning about Vision, or misleading Vision developers.
Apple didn't need to advertise it comes with M2. For those reasons, the M3 myth makes zero sense.