iPad When the 11th Generation iPad eventually launches, which Apple SoC do you think will it have?

[nicho]

I don't see A16 referenced here. I still love your theory though!

But there are also a lot of unreleased iPads on the list that we know won't come out because they would already be obsolete. It doesn't actually guarantee an iPad 15,7 and iPad 15,8 will come out... there could be an iPad 16,3 and iPad 16,4 come out as the 11th-gen iPad instead.

 

[Yebubbleman]

The mental gymnastics to make the argument that continuing production of an existing SoC, including more RAM... and starting up production of a variant of an old chip that they now only use for the 'older and slightly cheaper' model iPhone filling out the lineup...

There's a precedent for it happening. I'm not sure where any kind of mental gymnastics are even necessary.

View attachment 2441935

Thanks. I knew I was missing something there.

Common sense dictates they won't do it now - you've missed a HUGE weird thing from a marketing standpoint - the potential for pissing off a huge number of iPhone 14 Pro/iPhone 15 owners who won't understand that their A16 device doesn't have the necessary 8GB RAM and might just think they are being shafted... remember that iPhone makes up a much bigger portion of Apple's revenue than iPad.

How many iPhone buyers do you think actually pay attention to the processor in their iPhone? I'd bet it's not a whole lot. Most of them only care about release date and relative age of the device on the market. I honestly don't smell any kind of massive uproar over that at the low-end. And even still, we'd be talking about an iPad, presumably released next year, bearing a processor found on a phone that will have been released two years ago from that point (three if we're talking the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max). I see no cause for uproar for 2GB extra at that point.

The easiest thing for Apple to do would be to use the same model they did with the 9th/10th gen shift...

9th to 10th Gen was a bump from A13 to A14. We're talking about a bump from A14 to A16 with 8GB of RAM. Not that crazy. Plus that shift (where both models were on the market at the same time) was terrible for marketing and everyone knew it. It made no sense and it made the 10th Gen iPad unappealing when it should've been a slam dunk.

Introduce an 11th gen model with the same A17 Pro as the mini at $100 higher, then drop the price and scrap the 10th gen in a year's time (edit to add: once Apple Intelligence is actually available and more feature complete). Let them both sit for a few years, then resume yearly updates once sales stagnate or a new design language is on the horizon...

That's a great way to have no one buy an 11th Gen iPad. Apple's only M.O. here is to sell the iPad to education users that can't afford the iPad Airs and to bring Apple Intelligence across their entire lineup. If an A16 with 8GB of RAM can do it (and presumably that's less expensive for Apple than an A17 Pro), then they'll probably do it that way instead, because that iPad needs to be low cost, first and foremost.

 

[JPack]

I don't see A16 referenced here. I still love your theory though!

You have to use inference and study the existing list to understand why iPad15,7 means A16.

List of Apple's mobile device codes types a.k.a. machine ids (e.g. `iPhone1,1`, `Watch1,1`, etc.) and their matching product names

List of Apple's mobile device codes types a.k.a. machine ids (e.g. `iPhone1,1`, `Watch1,1`, etc.) and their matching product names - Apple_mobile_device_types.txt

gist.github.com

 

[JPack]

Apple isn't run by designers... come on man. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.

Just because you can take a processor that was in a flagship iPhone that was discontinued 13 months ago and add a new variant of it that adds 8GB RAM instead of 6GB doesn't mean you should when there's already production of A17 Pro for the mini. Reuse of parts is the foundation of Apple's success...

The DTK was produced in such small numbers they probably changed the RAM by hand in a backroom in Shenzhen rather than make any changes on the production line. Because $$$.

Apple does and they should.

The cheapest iPad in the lineup isn't going to use the same processor as the $499 iPad mini. That's a given. So the suggestion of A17 Pro is fun, but completely unrealistic.

Yeah, I'm sure the DTKs were made by hand. 🤣 Apple glued the boxes by hand, carved up the logic boards by hand, and used an X-Acto knife to cut the paper manuals by hand.

 

[ctjack]

So i voted a17 by mistake. Because current 10th gen ran a cpu of past year’s iphone at the moment of release.

But then i missed the point: it only got n-1 chip because they still sold ipad 9 which had older chip.

So if the trend continues and we have 1 lower and 1 upper, then upper gets a17.

If we have only 1 ipad, then it will get a16 with 6gb of ram. Why? Because 8gb would be too much for “plebs” in apple’s view.

I don’t know why everyone so fixated about apple ai and 8gb of ram: i bet iphone 15, 14pm are no slouch phones and definitely won’t be worse than ipad 11, yet they won’t receive Ai along with future base ipad.

 

[JPack]

How many iPhone buyers do you think actually pay attention to the processor in their iPhone? I'd bet it's not a whole lot. Most of them only care about release date and relative age of the device on the market. I honestly don't smell any kind of massive uproar over that at the low-end. And even still, we'd be talking about an iPad, presumably released next year, bearing a processor found on a phone that will have been released two years ago from that point (three if we're talking the iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max). I see no cause for uproar for 2GB extra at that point.

Reminds me of the diehards who argued Apple would never introduce M3 MBA 15, only 9 months after launching M2 MBA 15. Their argument was that existing MBA buyers would stomp their feet and never buy Mac again. 🤣

What exactly are iPhone 14/15 owners going to do because their device doesn't support AI? Stomp their feet and never buy iPhone again? 😂

Countless computational photography features are software locked to the latest iPhone each year. AI has a legit 8GB RAM requirement.

 

[nicho]

How many iPhone buyers do you think actually pay attention to the processor in their iPhone? I'd bet it's not a whole lot.

The processor is marketed. The RAM is not (traditionally... with the exception of some higher end iPad Pros in recent times).

9th to 10th Gen was a bump from A13 to A14

And internal and external changes across the board... whereas this update could be a simple processor refresh. Costs have come down a lot. I don't believe a custom A16 with 8GB vs A17 Pro will make as much difference to costs as you apparently do.

that iPad needs to be low cost, first and foremost.

And as we all know, the best way to cut costs is to create something specifically for one product rather than reuse what exists already. Economies of scale be damned.


There are a lot of educational customers out there with iPad Air 2, by the way. Still. Schools have likely fed back that they can stretch their budgets a little if the value is there, what they can't do is buy a device with a shelf life already shortened by putting in a 3-year-old processor...

 

[nicho]

Yeah, I'm sure the DTKs were made by hand. 🤣 Apple glued the boxes by hand, carved up the logic boards by hand, and used an X-Acto knife to cut the paper manuals by hand.

Right because that's what I suggested was happening...

The evidence doesn't suggest you'll be able to read this, but here you go:

M1 Mac RAM and SSD Upgrades Found to Be Possible After Purchase

Technicians in China have reportedly succeeded in upgrading the memory and storage of the M1 chip, suggesting that Apple's integrated custom...

www.macrumors.com

 

[Realityck]

Leaked identifiers already confirm A16, so my answer is A16. In addition, Apple always does n-2 with the low cost iPad, so it’s consistent.

Not sure why some people think A17 Pro is needed for AI when it isn’t. M1 has the exact same NPU as A14. So the actual requirement is A14 performance plus 8GB RAM.

Thats seems the update path. In a earlier MacWorld article they had this to say about why the 11th gen iPad was taking longer to arrive.

Why the new iPad mini is a problem for Apple's other products

Apple's long-awaited iPad mini update creates more questions than it answers.

www.macworld.com

So what stopped Apple from launching the 11th-gen iPad this month, alongside the new iPad mini? Of course: it’s the Apple Intelligence issue.

The chip in the 10th-gen iPad was a generation older than the one in the contemporary iPad mini, even though the iPad itself was a year younger. That makes sense, given the price gap. But if Apple were to maintain that system, and launch an iPad 11 with a chip that’s a generation older than the A17 Pro in the new mini–presumably an A16–then where does that leave Apple Intelligence? It wouldn’t be supported. Apple Intelligence requires 8GB of RAM, which means it needs an A17 Pro or higher or an M-class chip.

That leaves Apple with only three options for the 11th-gen iPad, none of which are attractive. Install an A16 and manage without Apple Intelligence? Surely not—Apple wants training data for its new AI platform, and that means getting as many users as possible. Use the M1 instead? Could be confusing for customers, but feasible. Wait another year to launch the 11th-gen iPad? Perhaps this is the best option, because so many of the iPad’s target markets, in schools and the public sector, simply don’t need a new model every year.

One quick response to this MacWorld article quotes from a forum member was he really didn't care if the iPad 11th gen offered no support for Apple AI. It was more important to keep it somewhat updated with a newer chip such as the A16, but not raise the price at all.

 

[JPack]

Thats seems the update path. In a earlier MacWorld article they had this to say about why the 11th gen iPad was taking longer to arrive.

Why the new iPad mini is a problem for Apple's other products

Apple's long-awaited iPad mini update creates more questions than it answers.

www.macworld.com

One quick response to this MacWorld article quotes from a forum member was he really didn't care if the iPad 11th gen offered no support for Apple AI. It was more important to keep it somewhat updated with a newer chip such as the A16, but not raise the price at all.

A16 supports Apple Intelligence. The NPU is faster than the one found in M2.

Apple isn't launching a new $349 iPad today because the components are currently too expensive. Not only does Apple bear the cost of A16, the RAM is doubling, and jumping to LPDDR5. All of this adds up. And at what cost? What is the selling point?

Apple Intelligence isn't even ready and won't be ready until early or mid-2025. Most countries in the world won't have AI. Hardly anyone uses $349 iPad for productivity, which is where AI is useful. With iPad mini, Apple could at least bundle a high margin Pencil Pro. With iPad, they can't bundle anything to make up for the expensive A16/8GB RAM.

The iPad 10 can easily survive another 6 months without consumers questioning its value proposition.

 

[Johnny365]

Well, we will see what the iPad 11th Gen ends up being.

 

[Realityck]

A16 supports Apple Intelligence. The NPU is faster than the one found in M2.

Apple isn't launching a new $349 iPad today because the components are currently too expensive. Not only does Apple bear the cost of A16, the RAM is doubling, and jumping to LPDDR5. All of this adds up. And at what cost? What is the selling point?

Apple Intelligence isn't even ready and won't be ready until early or mid-2025. Most countries in the world won't have AI. Hardly anyone uses $349 iPad for productivity, which is where AI is useful. With iPad mini, Apple could at least bundle a high margin Pencil Pro. With iPad, they can't bundle anything to make up for the expensive A16/8GB RAM.

The iPad 10 can easily survive another 6 months without consumers questioning its value proposition.

All the iPhones using A16 such as the iPhone 14 Pro/Max, iPhone 15/Plus have 6 GB RAM are not supported by Apple AI. Its not the Neural Processor its the fact that Apple wants to have 8GB of RAM on all devices to qualify for running AI. Yes until it's ready a few more months won't matter.

 

[*~Kim~*]

All the iPhones using A16 such as the iPhone 14 Pro/Max, iPhone 15/Plus have 6 GB RAM are not supported by Apple AI. Its not the Neural Processor its the fact that Apple wants to have 8GB of RAM on all devices to qualify for running AI. Yes until it's ready a few more months won't matter.

And if people need an iPad and think that the 10th Gen is a poor value proposition, then they will either a) wait or b) buy a higher end model since that isn’t out of date. Both are a win for Apple. They have more competition in the phone market and know it, hence they never fail to update.