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iluvmacs99

macrumors 6502a
Apr 9, 2019
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673
Subject title says it all:
When will mirrorless take over DSLR ... and time to sell mirror DSLR equipment??

I've been in this as a hobbyist since 2009, Canon T1i now a Canon 70D.
Did the lens upgrades over the years, now have the 2.8f L 70-200 mkII + 2 TC's, UWA 11-16 lens, and a few others.

I've been ... well lagging using the photo equipment recently, enough that I'm on fence post of selling it all ...
I'm 57, looking at retiring 3-4 years max, then get back into photography for hobbyist fun.

Truly love Photography, but if mirrorless is the way of the future for DSLR is now the leading edge to sell when my gear will get decent $'s, instead of 3-4 years later when the resale will tank??

Thoughts?

Having worked in the digital imaging industry for close to 30 years before I left and went into a different career; perhaps I can offer my perspective on this subject.

The reality is that, mirrorless won't replace mirror based DSLR anytime soon and I foresee that both of these systems will be on the decline as phone cameras keep getting better and the optical zooms become standard features.

Mirrorless were meant to address a baby boomer generation who are retiring or had retired and wanting to travel and mirrorless addressed the travel restriction on carry-on luggage where it is now getting worse. This has been the trend in downsizing camera size and weight about a few years ago. starting with Olympus m43 when the sales started to decline in 2012. But even right now, sales are declining even with mirrorless and the fact that Nikon is closing its third party repair shop support and bringing all repairs in-house meant that they are just not selling enough to even keep their in-house techs busy working on repairs. This basically signal that sales had declined to a point that many camera makers are now playing defensive and to keep costs contained in a declining camera market.

Another issue that had crept up for a few years now is overstocking and over-inventory. Your camera gear loses value as soon as you took it out of a shop period, unless you own a Leica or a Hasselblad body where they would maintain their value somewhat. Overstocking and over-inventory had been a systemic issue when I was working in the industry. In order to maintain cost production and maintain profit margins, they would commit to a certain number of sensors and components and they would instruct their sales force to pressure dealers to commit to a certain number of sales on a yearly basis. That means, if you want to continue being an authorized dealer for those camera brands, a dealer need to commit to stocking certain products in their warehouse and while this is not a problem with B&H Photo and Amazon due to their large online presence, it poses a problem for many other dealers who don't have those larger presence. This had made dealers carry products that are several years old, kept prices artificially higher than need be and then eventually ending up slashing the prices to half its residual cost to move. Take the M100, the M5 and M6 from Canon. They had kept their prices too high for too long and now they had to clear them. So if someone had bought a M100 last year, this year that camera would be about half and you just lost half of its value for no fault of your own, but rather it was the camera cartel who kept those prices artificially high. This exacerbates the camera sales decline further, because people now know how to wait. Just wait a little longer and prices will start falling.

Unfortunately, this leads to the used market prices being also depressed as well. People nowadays will low-ball prices because they know new prices have fallen by so much. This then puts pressure on people who, by no fault on their own, to sell their gear at much lower cost. This has led many of them to simply say, this will be my last camera. I'll just use it until it dies.

I shoot with an Olympus m43 and a 1" Panasonic and bought into the system due to the size and weight as I use them to take travel photos. The savings I got by being able to carry them into the cabin allowed me to upgrade my seat, where it would otherwise end up paying for check-in luggage.

When I was working professional, I had used the Nikon D4s and D3 bodies with large lenses, but I was paid and the travel costs were compensated by the company I worked for. The problem now is that, it is only the upper middle class who can still afford to travel, pay the extra costs to carry those 50lbs gear alongside them. That upper middle class is on the decline and so eventually thought, who will be buying those expensive pro bodies when the upper middle class, which mainly consist of the baby boomer generation, disappear? Who will buy into the used D5 or D850? Unless you have a use for these bodies or even an A7 Mark III, those bodies will not be a good investment for a regular photographer who just uses it for regular photography, rather than using these bodies to make money.

When I was working pro, the freelancers (we call them shooting on SPEC) would get only 1-2 Euros per photo on international events. Most of them will NEVER make money to cover the cost of their travel and gear. Don't be so dumb and think camera gear is an investment, or else you will be a debt slave to Visa or MasterCard or a creditor, which unfortunately many professional photographers are such in that state.
 
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kenoh

macrumors 604
Jul 18, 2008
6,507
10,850
Glasgow, UK
Yea - common sense says if it aint broke, don't fix it.
Heck, I preach that to others.

In this instance, I've been on fencepost going FF for it's lower noise for long exposures, and higher ISO for low-low light.

Plus, the mirrorless lens are truly smaller an lighter, my L f2.8 70-200 is one honking beast!!

So, knowing I'll age gracefully, and I've not had the itch to shoot in 1 year or so ... just being pratical here

I think you need to make a point of getting out and shooting with it. If you dont use it, then sell it, buy what is current-1 generation when you want to shoot, or take your gear that you have and use it now seize the day! The bodies will depreciate, the lenses less so, especially L series glass. For you with those lenses, I would consider an EOS R or the RP but DSLRs are not going to disappear anytime soon. There are still too many people using them and your 70D is a good body.

Also, the lenses are typically smaller yes but not by enough to make a tangible difference. If you look at your canon 24-70 f2.8 vs the Sony 24-70 f2.8 they are close enough in size that it only really makes a difference on paper.

With EOS mount lenses right now, they are safer bets than the mirrorless systems - we know there is a used market for them. The newer mirrorless systems like Z mount are relatively new and we are waiting to see if they take off so IMHO your money is safe in your Canon lenses and unless there is a real reason you want to change, hang tight and make magic with what you have. Use it and enjoy it, the most you can lose is $350 now.
 

ericgtr12

macrumors 68000
Mar 19, 2015
1,774
12,175
As far as seeing your gear as an investment, IMO it indeed is an investment. In many cases we spend tens of thousands of dollars in gear to achieve what we want, however it's not just monetary, it's also an investment in what we do with our time and how we choose to spend it as photographers as well.

As far as selling your equipment, my guess is most of us don't buy as something we intend to sell and profit from, but if we do want to consider it down the road there's some of peace of mind to know that we'll at least get something back out of it.
 
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mmomega

macrumors demi-god
Dec 30, 2009
3,888
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DFW, TX
I didn't change from DSLR to mirrorless until I thought it was completely beneficial for me.
There was a win/loss to the change at the time and they had to be where there was more wins than losses for me personally.
Once I decided to do it, I was at a point where I could keep both and use them both and learn even more by using both at the same time and then naturally the DSLR was being used less and less until the point it was on a shelf collecting dust.
Then my soon to be daughter in law "fingers crossed" was really getting in to photography and I gifted it to her which she was ecstatic about, 6 years later it seems to be her favorite camera.
 
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MacNut

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Jan 4, 2002
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Last year when I wanted to upgrade my gear I was out of the loop when I started my search. The A7iii was just announced and everyone was raving about the camera and what Sony was doing with mirrorless. That peeked my interested in terms of technology and really the focus systems Sony was developing. Looking at the long term roadmaps, Sony is setup nicely. Canon is starting to catch on and Nikon is really lagging.
 
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Clix Pix

macrumors Core
Agree...... The A7III captured my interest and started me on the long path of deciding what I wanted to do in the future and what equipment I would use to do it, and along the way I spent some time seriously thinking about what I really love to shoot. It was very disappointing when Nikon released its two Z series cameras and some lenses that there was not even one macro lens on their "roadmap" -- right there that was off-putting. Along with that came the whole adapter thing, and since I really do not want to mess with adapters, for me that was another strike against Nikon. With Sony I was able to immediately purchase the macro lenses I wanted and in the future it will be no problem to purchase other lenses in additional focal lengths or speeds as I am ready. Sony already has got the lenses out in the marketplace and are continuing to release more as time goes on.

Now with Nikon's latest news about no longer supporting independent repair shops more and more long-time Nikon users that I know are starting to assess and think about in which direction they want to go with their own future gear. Some already have their feet partly in both camps and are using two different systems while others are contemplating making a drastic switch the way I did. Others have stuck with Nikon, using both DSLRs and the new Z cameras and lenses and are happy with that choice. Overall, it really is a shame that Nikon couldn't have gotten on the mirrorless bandwagon a long time ago and have made some better decisions than they have.
 
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MacNut

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Agree...... The A7III captured my interest and started me on the long path of deciding what I wanted to do in the future and what equipment I would use to do it, and along the way I spent some time seriously thinking about what I really love to shoot. It was very disappointing when Nikon released its two Z series cameras and some lenses that there was not even one macro lens on their "roadmap" -- right there that was off-putting. Along with that came the whole adapter thing, and since I really do not want to mess with adapters, for me that was another strike against Nikon. With Sony I was able to immediately purchase the macro lenses I wanted and in the future it will be no problem to purchase other lenses in additional focal lengths or speeds as I am ready. Sony already got the lenses out in the marketplace and are continuing to release more as time goes on.

Now with Nikon's latest news about no longer supporting independent repair shops more and more long-time Nikon users that I know are starting to assess and think about in which direction they want to go with their own future gear. Some already have their feet partly in both camps and are using two different systems while others are contemplating making a drastic switch the way I did. Others have stuck with Nikon, using both DSLRs and the new Z cameras and lenses and are happy with that choice. Overall, it really is a shame that Nikon couldn't have gotten on the mirrorless bandwagon a long time ago and have made some better decisions than they have.
Nikon and Canon took the mirrorless systems as a novelty and not a serious contender. I think they were focused more on Olympus and not Sony. Once Sony started to gain a real following after years of work on their systems Canon and Nikon had to rush to keep up.

Sony is also great at marketing the Alpha system. They have a real community pushing it.
 

Clix Pix

macrumors Core
I am on an independent forum which focuses on Sony's E-mount/FE-mount lenses and camera bodies, and I know DPR also has a Sony forum as well; probably Fred Miranda does, too, but I've never really quite really gotten interested in his forums for some reason, although they are popular with a lot of photographers. Facebook, too, has some groups devoted to Sony gear and presumably Nikon and Canon do as well. For me, several years ago when a friend brought over his new Sony NEX-7 to show me and I played with it for a few minutes, that was my introduction to mirrorless cameras and I immediately liked what I was seeing. Bought my own NEX-7 a few days later..... That experience, plus additional experience with Sony's RX100 series and also the amazing RX10 IV were further nudges in the direction of purchasing a Sony full-frame camera and lenses. I'd used Sony gear and really liked it, knew that it was good and that it works for me. What was not to like about taking the next step?

Yes, I think you are correct about both Nikon and Canon regarding the mirrorless systems as a gimmick or novelty and instead of paying attention to what was happening, were continuing to put most of their focus on their DSLRs and accompanying lenses, competing more with each other than with Sony or anyone else. For a while, yes, Olympus seemed to be the one leading the way with the m4/3 system and its flexibility in using lenses from different manufacturers. I think Sony benefited greatly from purchasing Minolta and learning from that system as well as continuing to work on developing sensors for others and themselves.....and it then all progressed steadily from there.
 
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mollyc

macrumors G3
Aug 18, 2016
8,064
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Nikon will be fine in the long term, and if they aren't, it won't be from the mirrorless entry. They are re-engineering a vast amount of lenses from scratch. The ones that are out are among the best lenses EVER made. If there isn't a new Z lens out yet, guess what? You can use your old F mount lenses! Amazing.

The Z bodies that are out right now are producing incredible images. Nikon's biggest misstep is that their marketing department sucks. And the Z6 in particular is being gobbled up by video producers.
 

Clix Pix

macrumors Core
Yes, I've seen some really nice images on Nikon Cafe from people using either the Z6 or the Z7 and the new lenses available, as well as with the FTZ adapter and an F-mount lens, and also now a few of them are picking up the recently-released Z50 as an additional /supplemental camera body as well. Many are still shooting with both mirrorless and DSLR, depending upon their needs and their shooting styles and preferences. Using good native lenses makes a difference in many cases, and yes, Nikon is offering some really good fast ones.

It's an interesting time for all of us photographers, with new choices and different directions in which to go.....
 
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baypharm

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Nov 15, 2007
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I won't give up my DSLR for mirrorless - ever. I want and prefer an optical viewfinder - which is absent with mirrorless cameras. Perhaps the newer and younger generation won't be bothered by an electronic viewfinder and that is ok. I am happy where I am.
 

Clix Pix

macrumors Core
The first time I saw an electronic viewfinder I was startled and thought it was weird -- that was many years ago. Now, having used them pretty extensively over the past several years, I'm quite used to them and actually like the information they provide and the fact that I can see what will happen if I make adjustments and changes -- before I even click the shutter. I find them useful and I suspect would have difficulty now going back to an optical viewfinder! (Oh, and I am definitely not of the younger generation!)
 

MacNut

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Jan 4, 2002
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The first time I saw an electronic viewfinder I was startled and thought it was weird -- that was many years ago. Now, having used them pretty extensively over the past several years, I'm quite used to them and actually like the information they provide and the fact that I can see what will happen if I make adjustments and changes -- before I even click the shutter. I find them useful and I suspect would have difficulty now going back to an optical viewfinder! (Oh, and I am definitely not of the younger generation!)
I agree, I found optical viewfinders to be somewhat useless. I would still have to check the shot after. You are just framing the shot but otherwise shooting blind.
 
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mtbdudex

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Aug 28, 2007
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Well this is interesting
https://petapixel.com/2020/01/08/canon-done-making-ef-lenses-unless-photographers-demand-more/
fa694729bf85c76ec280e4e224ecb480.jpg
 

Clix Pix

macrumors Core
I guess Canon feels as though they've got all the lenses they want to offer anyone who is still shooting with DSLRs..... By halting R&D focused on designing new EF lenses to be used in conjunction with what Canon may now be somewhat belatedly sensing is no longer the direction in which photography and technology are headed, this provides the opportunity shift all their R&D attention towards mirrorless camera bodies and mirrorless lenses.

Why bother developing more EF lenses that would need to be used with adapters on mirrorless bodies? Makes sense to put their attention on developing and providing more mirrorless lenses to supply the people who are buying mirrorless bodies -- and of course they want people to be buying Canon, not Sony. At the moment Sony still has the lead over both Canon and Nikon when it comes to availability of native lenses in various speeds and capacities. People can buy one of several Sony APS-C or FF bodies and there are quite a few native lenses from which to choose. Nikon and Canon still are dependent to a large extent on adapters. Some users do not like the idea of adapters and prefer not to have to deal with them. They want native lenses.

Some third-party manufacturers are already providing E-mount or FE-mount lenses for Sony cameras, too, and that extends the availability of choices. Again, this hasn't happened to any great extent yet for either Canon or Nikon. Both have new mounts that are still restricted to a handful of lenses, both native and third-party. Is it any surprise that Sony and other manufacturers who have been working in mirrorless for some time are doing pretty well even as Canon and Nikon are hastily trying to play catch-up now?

To me, this latest move is clearly Canon's way of trying to keep loyal Canon users in the fold and keep more from straying..... We'll see how this strategy plays out over the next year or two, and also how Nikon's current strategy (they are still as of now developing and issuing new DSLR bodies and lenses along with their mirrorless line) works for them as well.
 
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ericgtr12

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Mar 19, 2015
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The first time I saw an electronic viewfinder I was startled and thought it was weird -- that was many years ago. Now, having used them pretty extensively over the past several years, I'm quite used to them and actually like the information they provide and the fact that I can see what will happen if I make adjustments and changes -- before I even click the shutter. I find them useful and I suspect would have difficulty now going back to an optical viewfinder! (Oh, and I am definitely not of the younger generation!)
Have you attempted long exposures, say 20 or more seconds, if so do you get a preview of the outcome before shooting?
 

Clix Pix

macrumors Core
Have you attempted long exposures, say 20 or more seconds, if so do you get a preview of the outcome before shooting?

No, I haven't done any long exposures, I don't generally shoot the kinds of scenes that require that. However, if the occasion arises I will pay attention to what I see in the EVF during the entire process.....
 
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ericgtr12

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Mar 19, 2015
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No, I haven't done any long exposures, I don't generally shoot the kinds of scenes that require that. However, if the occasion arises I will pay attention to what I see in the EVF during the entire process.....
Cool, it will be nice to see how that works on a mirrorless. I'm going to the "Night Bloom" in Napa tonight to gets some shots of hot air balloons glowing in the evening sky with my regular DSLR but am going to attempt some shots with my wife's iPhone 11 to see what I can get as well.
 

Clix Pix

macrumors Core
Cool, it will be nice to see how that works on a mirrorless. I'm going to the "Night Bloom" in Napa tonight to gets some shots of hot air balloons glowing in the evening sky with my regular DSLR but am going to attempt some shots with my wife's iPhone 11 to see what I can get as well.

That should be a really fun photo op! Looking forward to seeing some images......
 
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kallisti

macrumors 68000
Apr 22, 2003
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I won't give up my DSLR for mirrorless - ever. I want and prefer an optical viewfinder - which is absent with mirrorless cameras. Perhaps the newer and younger generation won't be bothered by an electronic viewfinder and that is ok. I am happy where I am.

As stated by others, an advantage of mirrorless is that you see the exposure before you press the shutter and any adjustments you make can be viewed in the EVF in real time. Not possible with an optical VF. May or may not matter to you, but it can be useful.

Another significant advantage relates to auto-focus and lens calibration. With mirrorless, you don't need to calibrate your lenses. As an extreme example, the Sigma 40mm f/1.4 is a phenomenal lens optically. One of my best lenses (and easily my best in the normal focal length range--comparing it against Nikon's primes and even Leica's primes). The problem is that it back focuses to a significant degree on my D850. Worse, the degree of back focus changes with subject distance--so it's not possible to set a focus adjustment in the body since the adjustment will only be valid for subjects at a certain distance but not others. This isn't a problem with a bad sample, it seems to be a problem with lens design/implementation (Lloyd Chambers has done extensive testing with this including multiple lens samples). On my Z7 the focus is flawless regardless of subject distance.

Sensor-based AF (usually phase-detect AF or PDAF) isn't without its issues. But with my mirrored bodies there was always an obligatory process of testing a new lens to see if the AF was calibrated correctly for my particular body and lens combo. Then saving any needed adjustments to the body for that lens. And then hoping that it was a general adjustment that would hold for all subject distances. Often it wasn't and I would have to settle for a "good enough" compromise that worked for most subject distances.

Some lenses worked well out-of-the-box. Many didn't. For Nikon, I'd always go through the calibration process. For Leica, it was fairly common that I'd need to send my lens(es) and M body to Leica to have them calibrated after a new purchase.

Mirrorless pretty much means I don't have to deal with that process ever again. I still test my lenses to make sure I didn't get a bad sample, but with PDAF I no longer need to deal with lens calibration.

It's also *very* useful (at least in my shooting) to be able to zoom-in to confirm focus through the EVF when needed and not having to rely on LV on the rear panel. It makes MF lenses significantly easier to use hand-held compared to an optical VF.
 
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baypharm

macrumors 68000
Nov 15, 2007
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As stated by others, an advantage of mirrorless is that you see the exposure before you press the shutter and any adjustments you make can be viewed in the EVF in real time. Not possible with an optical VF. May or may not matter to you, but it can be useful.

Another significant advantage relates to auto-focus and lens calibration. With mirrorless, you don't need to calibrate your lenses. As an extreme example, the Sigma 40mm f/1.4 is a phenomenal lens optically. One of my best lenses (and easily my best in the normal focal length range--comparing it against Nikon's primes and even Leica's primes). The problem is that it back focuses to a significant degree on my D850. Worse, the degree of back focus changes with subject distance--so it's not possible to set a focus adjustment in the body since the adjustment will only be valid for subjects at a certain distance but not others. This isn't a problem with a bad sample, it seems to be a problem with lens design/implementation (Lloyd Chambers has done extensive testing with this including multiple lens samples). On my Z7 the focus is flawless regardless of subject distance.

Sensor-based AF (usually phase-detect AF or PDAF) isn't without its issues. But with my mirrored bodies there was always an obligatory process of testing a new lens to see if the AF was calibrated correctly for my particular body and lens combo. Then saving any needed adjustments to the body for that lens. And then hoping that it was a general adjustment that would hold for all subject distances. Often it wasn't and I would have to settle for a "good enough" compromise that worked for most subject distances.

Some lenses worked well out-of-the-box. Many didn't. For Nikon, I'd always go through the calibration process. For Leica, it was fairly common that I'd need to send my lens(es) and M body to Leica to have them calibrated after a new purchase.

Mirrorless pretty much means I don't have to deal with that process ever again. I still test my lenses to make sure I didn't get a bad sample, but with PDAF I no longer need to deal with lens calibration.

It's also *very* useful (at least in my shooting) to be able to zoom-in to confirm focus through the EVF when needed and not having to rely on LV on the rear panel. It makes MF lenses significantly easier to use hand-held compared to an optical VF.

As I said previously, I’m happy with my optical viewfinder. No one, including you or ClixPix, is going to change my mind.
 
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