The iPad will almost certainly ship directly from China. My last two iMacs were sent this way -- arrived within 2 days of shipping actually.
Fedex Home Delivery will likely be the method of choice. In fact, I cancelled my preorder and went with the reservation simply on that fact alone. My experience with Fedex Home Delivery has been uniformly negative.
Since they are contracted by FedEx and not actual employees, the service quality can vary. I've had them simply hold on to the package an extra day or arrive well past normal delivery hours (ie night time).
One time, they came to my complex, walked up to the locked entry way and didn't even bother to buzz in. They pulled on the locked door and went back to their car and drove away. I watched the whole thing - called Fedex to complain, who in turn called the driver. He refused to drive back. This was literally within 5 minutes of him leaving.
I'll take my chances at the store.
I have had the same problem, but not with FedEx. I see the UPS guy, he looks around then drives away, I call UPS to see what happened, they say the address doesn't exist... how I get mail every day. I made it a priority to watch for the UPS guy then when I see them I go outside, its a pain, but its better than going to the UPS facility after hours to pick it up. FedEx at least has rung in even found the right door and left the packages. Never had issue with FedEx. When you have a product that cost most than $3000 (a camera) in transit it can be nerve racking.
I am going to the store, just to have an excuse to visit one for the first time.