Why did Mac sales plunge an ADDITIONAL 23%?

[Aston441]

I hate to break it to you but Apple's engineering teams don't even consider OCLP when making decisions. That userbase is a tiny minority of a tiny minority. There's no conspiracy.

Most Macs sold are laptops. Laptops wear out physically with regularity, or are damaged. By the 5-7 year mark most of them are pretty much done.

Right now we know they're on the march to phase out Intel Macs. That doesn't require guesswork. Apple Silicon Macs are where the development focus is, and they don't need old legacy support.

Macs don't really wear out much unless they have those nasty keyboards.

 

[lenningj]

Could it be market fatigue with the M series chips? Expectations vs reality for the majority of the market. Or if most users who have bought a M series Mac since 2020 no longer feel a need to upgrade for the time being.

 

[Aston441]

Could it be market fatigue with the M series chips? Expectations vs reality for the majority of the market. Or if most users who have bought a M series Mac since 2020 no longer feel a need to upgrade for the time being.

For 95% of real world Macintosh end users, the only real world difference in functionality in moving from from mainstream X86 to niche M-series, is the loss of the ability to BootCamp and natively run Windows and Linux directly on the hardware, or at least run VMs at acceptable speed.

Contrast the move from PowerPC (niche) to x86 (mainstream), which gave tremendous added functionality to the end user.

Macintosh needs to go back to an x86 option, at least on some of the lineup.

 

[theluggage]

For 95% of real world Macintosh end users, the only real world difference in functionality in moving from from mainstream X86 to niche M-series, is the loss of the ability to BootCamp and natively run Windows and Linux directly on the hardware, or at least run VMs at acceptable speed.

It may be essential to you, but I doubt that 95% of real-world Macintosh end users give a wet slap about running native Windows or Linux in 2023, and going forwards its likely to be even less relevant.

It was a significant advantage for a lot of users in 2006 but the picture has changed dramatically today. Windows is no longer king - iOS, Android and anything with a Chrome browser are the "growth" platforms. Linux for ARM nicely in a VM and there's a bare metal version developing rapidly. Windows for ARM in a VM does actually meet some people's Windows needs too, even if it's no good for you. Many people who need Windows for work can use remote desktop to connect to a work machine - and I predict that will become the norm for any workplaces who don't switch to a web-based workflow - because security (no laptops left on trains - everything logged - everything held in a proper data centre and properly backed-up). MS still looks determined to make a go of Windows on ARM, so things will improve for Mac users.

Macintosh needs to go back to an x86 option, at least on some of the lineup.

The Apple Silicon Mac has been a success which is one reason why Apple saw a huge spike in sales which are now reverting to more normal levels (that and a surge of laptop sales during the pandemic). There's no point in throwing that away by U-turning based on the shrinking group of customers who are going to buy a Mac, and a $$$ full copy of Windows, and a $$ hypervisor.

 

[The_Interloper]

What did you buy in 2019 that isn’t supported by Sonoma?

The 2013 Mac Pro was still being sold to the very end of 2019 (in the UK at least, until well into 2020 - longer still in the refurb store). That didn‘t even get Ventura, never mind Sonoma.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

PC shipments decline slows in Q3 2023, but Apple plunges over 23% | TechCrunch

The PC market decline slowed this quarter, but Apple shipments were down 23% according to Gartner, IDC and Canalys.

techcrunch.com

Is anyone buying Macs any more?

Yes. Just not as many are because of a variety of factors, some of which were outside of Apple's control. One of which being inflation, the other being a downturn in the tech industry in general. People don't have the cash to splurge on gadgets as much as they used to, or if they needed a computer, they already bought one and are gonna stick with it for 8 years.

Well here is my data point of one:


After swearing off Apple in the 90s for screwing me over with their reneged promise for System 9, I couldn't deny that in 2011, the best value for the money in a windows PC was a bootcamped Macintosh.

That got me into OS X, which was obviously superior to Windows. Then. The integrated ecosystem was great.

That's actually how I tried macOS myself was making a VM of it just for the fun of it. But it was Apple Silicon that made me fully buy one and I now permanently use a Mac as my daily driver.

Fast forward a few years, my perfectly functional, perfectly capable, 2011 Mac was dropped from updates a few years ago. (It still has enough power to run the latest MacOS, but Marketing through forced obsolescence reigns) Fully updated Windows still works on it, so thats OK. I guess. So I bought another new Mac in 2019. Four years later OS X support was dropped. Again. 🤔

Apple is guilty of planned obsolescence on multiple occasions, but this isn't one of them. They transitioned from x86 to ARM. Intel Macs are a dying platform. The recent Steam hardware surveys shows that over half of all Mac users on the platform have already moved over to the ARM Macs.

The same thing happened with the transition to PowerPC to Intel. There's no reason to continue supporting an architecture that they're no longer selling or plan to sell as everyone moves over.

So should I buy a new Mac I ask myself? Well it can't run Windows any more.

It can run Windows though. Just not in a dualboot setting. You can install Windows through a virtual machine. There's Parallels, VMWare Fusion, or Virtualbox as some good examples.

Jobs' brilliant bootcamp move, that made Macintosh the most popular Windows capable PC, 13 years ago, is no more.

I just bought a new Dell last month. Dell is now the highest performance per dollar.

(I use Dells at work so somehow I really do not buy that)

Apple hasn't just lost it's way, THERE IS NO WAY ANY MORE.

Going to 100% ARM without making a deal with Microsoft was astonishingly short sited.

They tried to make a deal. Microsoft didn't take it because they have an exclusivity deal with Qualcomm regarding Windows for ARM. It's all on Microsoft to get Windows back on the Mac.

Apple: It's Really Up to Microsoft to Make Windows Work on M1-Based Macs

Apple discusses the future of Windows on Macs.

www.tomshardware.com

The Mac is back to being an isolated, niche machine. It's the 90s all over again, except without all the thin beautiful women everywhere.

The Mac ain't niche lol. It has over 30% marketshare in the United States and globally has passed 20% marketshare. Linux is niche, Mac is not.

Everyone is feeling the pain. Mac sales have slowed down because everyone who wanted a new Mac, has bought one already. Combined with the M2 generation being a wash and the industry downturn for electronic sales, we can see why Macbook sales took a plunge like this.

But does that mean the Mac is doomed and everyone should buy Windows machines? No, of course not. Mac marketshare is the highest it's been since...EVER! Ever since the move to ARM the Mac is now the most popular it's ever been with over 20% marketshare globally, with over 30% in North America. Not even during the Mac vs PC days was it ever this popular.

Things are just slowing down after the initial Mac boom from the transition. When M3 gets announced Apple will make changes from user feedback to attract some more customers, such as the rumored 32 inch iMac and a rumored lower cost Macbook. Combined with bringing in more software for users to want to buy a Mac, such as getting over high profile games, sales will pick up again. Hell Black Friday is next month so there will definitely be a lot of Macs bought for the Holiday sales.

 

[dumastudetto]

Apple supports older OS releases with at least two years of additional security updates. Just because they are no longer capable of running the latest versions of macOS to an acceptable performance standard, they still get some software support.

 

[Chuckeee]

But on the other hand TSMC seems to be doing good. And the article state that TSMC anticipates their good performance to continue through 2024. Remember TSMC is the foundry that supplies Apple all of their current ARM processors, which are the heart of every production iPhone, Mac and iPad.

TSMC expects 'healthy growth year' as Q3 profit beats expectations

Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC posted a 25% fall in third quarter net profit on Thursday, beating expectations, and said the semiconductor industry could be poised for recovery.

www.reuters.com

 

[theluggage]

Agree with your post but on the subject of Windows-on-Mac:

They tried to make a deal. Microsoft didn't take it because they have an exclusivity deal with Qualcomm regarding Windows for ARM. It's all on Microsoft to get Windows back on the Mac.

Apple: It's Really Up to Microsoft to Make Windows Work on M1-Based Macs

Apple discusses the future of Windows on Macs.

www.tomshardware.com

If you dig back to the original interviews its pretty clear that when Apple said "Microsoft has everything they need" they were talking about virtualisation using the built-in MacOS hypervisor kit. An actual quote from Apple is:

“We’re not direct booting an alternate operating system,” says Craig Federighi, Apple’s senior vice president of software engineering. “Purely virtualization is the route. These hypervisors can be very efficient, so the need to direct boot shouldn’t really be the concern.”

Apple’s new ARM-based Macs won’t support Windows through Boot Camp

Microsoft has the power to change ARM-based Macs running Windows 10 on ARM.

www.theverge.com

...in any case, for the majority of "legacy" needs, virtualisation and the sort of Windows/MacOS inter-operation is far more convenient compared to "Bootcamp" - permanently partitioning your SSD, having to re-boot to switch OSs and coping with transferring files between HFS/APFS and NTFS.

Also, back when those articles were written, the only way to get hold of Windows for ARM to run in a hypervisor was a slightly sketchy-sounding route involving downloading an "insiders' preview" - probably legal but didn't inspire confidence. Today, Windows 11 is officially supported on Apple Silicon Macs (via virtualisation) so a lot of the argument is now moot.

WoA may not be the solution to every user's x86 requirements - but the alternative is throwing away the other benefits of Apple making their own bespoke processors. Apple have an ARM architectural license. They're not one of the 3-4 select companies with x86 architectural licenses (and nobody is issuing any more of those anytime soon!)

As for Microsoft investing time/money into making a native "Windows for Apple Silicon" - that sounds good for us (Apple Silicon is currently way ahead of the game on laptop/desktop-class ARM SoCs and an MBA or even iPad Pro running a good native WoA implementation would probably make the Surface X look ridiculous) but that wouldn't be good for Microsoft, who's Windows business model depends on licensing it to legions of PC makers - who wouldn't be able to buy Apple Silicon SoCs to build their own systems.

 

[Herbert123]

It's the 90s all over again, except without all the thin beautiful women everywhere.

Ah yes. Thanks for reminding us all of a decade of setbacks for women.

And this relates to the current decline in Mac sales in what way exactly?

 

[Aston441]

Ah yes. Thanks for reminding us all of a decade of setbacks for women.

And this relates to the current decline in Mac sales in what way exactly?

If Apple crashes and burns again... uh... we get thin beautiful women again! Right?

🍾

 

[sack_peak]

The last big spike of computer upgrades occurred between Mar 2020, 2021, 2022 & Mar 2023.

Typical replacement cycle for computers

- 4 years: Apple
- 5-6 years: Intel
- 8 years: macOS EOL for 2017-2020 Intel Macs
- 9+ years: macOS EOL for pre-2017 Intel Macs
- 122 months: Windows EOL
- 11+ years: <8% 🇺🇳; <9% 🇺🇸; <5% 🇬🇧; <13% 🇮🇳; <8% 🇨🇦; <2% 🇦🇫; <0% 🇰🇵; <5% 🇨🇺

The earliest Mac users would replace what they bought during COVID lockdown would be Q2 2024 to Q2 2027.

I have a late 2012 iMac 27". If an early 2023 iMac 32" came out I would have bought that and replace it by 2033.

 

[XboxEvolved]

I can’t quite put my finger on it but something about this post comes off as disingenuous. Many people have covered what I was going to say, but yeah Apple’s marketshare overall is very good in nearly every category they are in. In Mac marketshare they hover at over 20% worldwide which wasn’t even imaginable 15 years ago, or even when they were selling like crazy in the 80’s, and have you ever thought that maybe they aren’t selling as much computers because the people that bought their ****** chromebooks and Dells at the beginning of covid, had to go out and buy more stupid ****** Chromebooks and Dells for $300? It’s almost like you pay for what you get!