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Why the iPad WILL succeed

X

Xenoxide

macrumors member
Original poster
Jul 14, 2008
65
0
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/open_thread_the_internet_is_hard.php

Summary

ReadWriteWeb posted an article on Facebook Connect, Facebook's single-sign-on system. Somehow, within a few hours, that post on ReadWriteWeb became the #1 Google search result for "facebook login".

Thousands of users turned on their computers, clicked on "the big e button" to "open the web", and proceeded to type "facebook login" into Google, clicking on the first result, expecting to find Facebook.

Bizarelly, these users ignored the signs that the site they were looking at may not be Facebook. They ignored the big red pages, the "ReadWriteWeb" logo at the top of the page, and still thought it was Facebook. They even "signed into" Facebook using ReadWriteWeb's commenting system, which you guessed it, uses Facebook Connect.

The long and short of it is, that one post on ReadWriteWeb received thousands of comments from Facebook users complaining about how they "hated the new facebook", "why did they have to go and change it again", and "how can I see my friends wall".

How this related to the iPad

The iPad is not for us. Out here on the internet, we are the educated elite. We know the difference between the URL bar and the search box on the Google homepage.

The people will buy the iPad don't know what Flash is, nor do they care. They don't know what multitasking is, and don't care. In fact the most mainstream use for multitasking (Listening to a music service while browsing the web) will not apply to these people as they wont know what Last.fm or Spotify is. Even if they did they wouldn't know how to use it.

According to Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics), they have 400 million ACTIVE users. And I'm willing to bet that 80-90% of those users fall into the category I described above, who just want to "browse" the web, listen to music and videos, and login to their Facebook.

This is why I think the iPad will succed.
 
That is just one of the many reasons it will succeed.

In 20 minutes, you can have anyone on an iPad, trained, and surfing the web. Great box for young kids, non-tech people, seniors, ect.

On top of that you end up with the aps that appeal to a big cross section. Games, books, utilities, ect.... Lots of built in appeal.

Add on top of that the media consumption of the iPad. Movies, audio books, music, podcasts, all with a battery that can make it the best device to carry around all day.

The iPad doesn't appeal to the nuts and bolts tech guys, which is fine by me, they are often more nuts than bolts anyway.
 
You're right about the fact that many people don't know or care about Flash but they still use it, so once they visit a site which uses Flash with the iPad they won't care about html5 or about how Flash is going to die - they'll just expect it to work like a normal computer.

Regarding multi-tasking, I'm not sure - what about chatting with friends while browsing the web? Or listening to some streaming music from the web while reading your e-mail?

It turns up that the iPad significantly reduces the users possibilities and rather than helping them achieve better, more efficient performance with their computers it just prevents them from going any further.

It's like buying bigger books instead of glasses...
 
To add - try teaching one of these people you describe above about syncing music, movies, documents.

The same people who don't know flash from not have the same challenges when it comes to operating their devices in all aspects.

I know several older people who have ipod touches or iphones because it's cool and/or they like the interface. They also have no clue how to put music or anything on it.

So your argument for is also an argument against the demographic.
 
yyy said:
Regarding multi-tasking, I'm not sure - what about chatting with friends while browsing the web? Or listening to some streaming music from the web while reading your e-mail?
Click to expand...

Can you give me one example where streaming music is useful? I've got iTunes with all the music I like. And the iPod part of the Pad will play no matter what else you're doing.

I just have never seen the benefit of streaming music, because it's not the music I know I like. It's a crap shoot, like listing to the radio.
 
samcraig said:
To add - try teaching one of these people you describe above about syncing music, movies, documents.

The same people who don't know flash from not have the same challenges when it comes to operating their devices in all aspects.

I know several older people who have ipod touches or iphones because it's cool and/or they like the interface. They also have no clue how to put music or anything on it.

So your argument for is also an argument against the demographic.
Click to expand...

Not true at all. You could give an ipad to a senior, for example, with minor setup and training. They could browse the web, get e-mails from the kids/grandkids/friends, ect, and respond, use the book reader functions, ect, with out ever having to even sync the thing to a computer.
 
racer1441 said:
Not true at all. You could give an ipad to a senior, for example, with minor setup and training. They could browse the web, get e-mails from the kids/grandkids/friends, ect, and respond, use the book reader functions, ect, with out ever having to even sync the thing to a computer.
Click to expand...

That's true. But that's rather limiting. Many want to listen to music and watch movies. The only way to do that is to sync. And what about backing up their information in case something crashes. It happens. And many seniors run into trouble at that point. I'm not arguing against the iPad per se. I'm saying that as intuitive and easy as these devices are to learn - there are still areas a mystery to the owners

What about OS upgrades? Syncing photos they take?
 
samcraig said:
That's true. But that's rather limiting. Many want to listen to music and watch movies. The only way to do that is to sync. And what about backing up their information in case something crashes. It happens. And many seniors run into trouble at that point. I'm not arguing against the iPad per se. I'm saying that as intuitive and easy as these devices are to learn - there are still areas a mystery to the owners

What about OS upgrades? Syncing photos they take?
Click to expand...

The target group we are talking about may not even have a computer at all until the iPad. They are not taking digital pictures, worried about syncing music they don't have, ect. It's the perfect computer / communication device for people who don't have, or don't want the hassle of a computer.
 
racer1441 said:
The target group we are talking about may not even have a computer at all until the iPad. They are not taking digital pictures, worried about syncing music they don't have, ect. It's the perfect computer / communication device for people who don't have, or don't want the hassle of a computer.
Click to expand...

Yeah. Um. Ok.
 
yyy said:
You're right about the fact that many people don't know or care about Flash but they still use it, so once they visit a site which uses Flash with the iPad they won't care about html5 or about how Flash is going to die - they'll just expect it to work like a normal computer.
Click to expand...

I've read this a million times; it conveniently assumes people will blame the iPad and not the website. I know when a website I frequent doesn't cooperate, I say 'Facebook is down' not 'FireFox is broken'.

yyy said:
It turns up that the iPad significantly reduces the users possibilities and rather than helping them achieve better, more efficient performance with their computers it just prevents them from going any further.
Click to expand...

Reducing possibilities and preventing people from 'going further' (whatever that means) if implemented properly can help people achieve better, more efficient performance with their computers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overchoice
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Paradox_of_Choice

yyy said:
It's like buying bigger books instead of glasses...
Click to expand...

This is actually a great example because large-print books have been around for years (popularized well after glasses) and are still going strong.
 
samcraig said:
I'm not arguing against the iPad per se. I'm saying that as intuitive and easy as these devices are to learn - there are still areas a mystery to the owners
Click to expand...

So what's the conclusion? That people won't therefore use the iPad? That there is something else which is easier to use? Or are you just saying that some people will encounter problems with the device? This applies to anything, so I don't get the relevance, but maybe I misunderstand.
 
samcraig said:
That's true. But that's rather limiting. Many want to listen to music and watch movies. The only way to do that is to sync. And what about backing up their information in case something crashes. It happens. And many seniors run into trouble at that point. I'm not arguing against the iPad per se. I'm saying that as intuitive and easy as these devices are to learn - there are still areas a mystery to the owners

What about OS upgrades? Syncing photos they take?
Click to expand...

I watch/rent movies and buy music and DL directly to my iPhone all the time. I'm not "required to sync for these" Frankly after I purchased my MBP I have to sync all my data, movies and pics to it as well. I fail to see how this would classify my MBP as "not a computer" as some people have stated. Syncing is only an absolute on the iPad for OS updates.

Backing up data is a choice, not a requirement and their are methods via Mobileme to backup wirelessly. I have all my contacts, documents in Mobileme or use iDisk or any number of apps, which will work with iPad, and have everything i need backed up. If it does crash, I'll re-sync the movies and photo just like I would when my HDD crashed on my laptop. USB cable.
 
Carouser said:
So what's the conclusion? That people won't therefore use the iPad? That there is something else which is easier to use? Or are you just saying that some people will encounter problems with the device? This applies to anything, so I don't get the relevance, but maybe I misunderstand.
Click to expand...

Because you can't have it both way as per the 1st post here "The people will buy the iPad don't know what Flash is, nor do they care. They don't know what multitasking is, and don't care. In fact the most mainstream use for multitasking (Listening to a music service while browsing the web) will not apply to these people as they wont know what Last.fm or Spotify is. Even if they did they wouldn't know how to use it.

According to Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics), they have 400 million ACTIVE users. And I'm willing to bet that 80-90% of those users fall into the category I described above, who just want to "browse" the web, listen to music and videos, and login to their Facebook."

People just want their devices to work. Yet it wont when visiting flash sites. Explain that to a senior.

People want to listen to music? Unless they start buying it all - how will they get their cd music onto the device?

Apple products are great - and easier than most. But if you're going to insult the intelligence of its user base by saying they won't care if it has this or that I'm afraid you'll find yourself painted in a corner. Perhaps you're right. But they'll also no the device they just bought is frustrating because they can't get music on it - or they cant visit their favorite sites.

bossxii said:
I watch/rent movies and buy music and DL directly to my iPhone all the time. I'm not "required to sync for these" Frankly after I purchased my MBP I have to sync all my data, movies and pics to it as well. I fail to see how this would classify my MBP as "not a computer" as some people have stated. Syncing is only an absolute on the iPad for OS updates.

Backing up data is a choice, not a requirement and their are methods via Mobileme to backup wirelessly. I have all my contacts, documents in Mobileme or use iDisk or any number of apps, which will work with iPad, and have everything i need backed up. If it does crash, I'll re-sync the movies and photo just like I would when my HDD crashed on my laptop. USB cable.
Click to expand...

You want the same people who don't know why flash works or doesn't (as per post #1) to "get" mobileme, cloud computing and all that.

Yeah - good luck. If they get those principals - surely they'll understand that the iPad is limited in what content it can get (flash, silverlight, etc)
 
My reasons... and to be fair I work in the IT Industry (IT Diploma, 8 years experience in networking, security administration in systems such LAN (AD), SAP, Oracle, SQL, Mainframe, VM, Unix, etc)

I've been looking for the perfect mobile laptop replacement for years, I thought I found it with the Macbook Air and what does apple do but deliver ten fold!

Over the years I'd invest in a 4 lb or less laptop for travelling or around the house use and either a desktop or high end laptop for my desk space. Now with the iPad I can get a 3G on-the-go computer and a mid-range desktop for a lower price then before and have my needs met with a more enjoyable experience.

My uses for the iPad are as follows:

  • eBook reader
  • Part-time University machine
  • 3G on-the-go internet
  • eMail client
  • Scheduling (Full-time work, part-time Uni and various hobbies)
  • Movie\TV show's
  • Youtube viewing
  • Web Browsing
  • Gaming
  • All the other APPS!
  • Ironically the biggest selling point behind the device was the fact that I do NOT need to charge it with a computer making on-the-go usage priceless!

Some items I wish were in there:
  • Web cam: Although lately for work I haven't travelled if I do I'd like the ability to do video conferencing with my wife while away, as we do that currently with our laptops.. perhaps the next iteration
  • Printing ability: I understand the ease of transferring document but I hope a printer manufacturer puts out a wi-fi printer with an iPad App for printing cause if so I'm paying for it!

Features that are missing but do not affect me:
  • Flash: I'm not in the U.S. so hulu was never an option and in fact I use click-to-flash on my mac machines as I don't like flash as a whole. Any type of Flash games on the web I can find a App store equivalent that's quicker and better to use. Also Youtube is my most on the go used tool and I can use that with an iPad so my life is complete.
  • USB: Only issue would be if they allowed USB printing on why I would want this but with low cost wi-fi printers I don't see this as the direction the industry should take for this device
  • HDMI: VGA is sufficient for my needs and all my work's projectors are VGA only so (Not an issue)
  • Multi-Tasking: Assuming the "potential" issues with battery life and a potential increase of size of the device to support multiple applications makes not having it a sufficient reason. For the majority of my time I use one Application and a Instant Messenger program in which I leave idle and don't really use. If I do need the added power I have a desktop computer not far away, which at current I use once every two weeks.

Final Thoughts:
So really you need to decide what YOU personally need. For me it's having a 1.5 - 1.6 lb machine that does EVERYTHING I want and MORE at my fingertips. It's more then I could have imagined even if people see it as a "large ipod touch".

My wife is purchasing one as well (wi-fi only vs my 3G one). Her only issue is that she'd like to have the Mariner Software Application (StoryMill) available but we emailed them and they said it's on their Radar... at worst she'll use iWork or another companies iPad developed writing software, but it's not a deal breaker.

Anyway those are my thoughts!
 
samcraig said:
You want the same people who don't know why flash works or doesn't (as per post #1) to "get" mobileme, cloud computing and all that.

Yeah - good luck. If they get those principals - surely they'll understand that the iPad is limited in what content it can get (flash, silverlight, etc)
Click to expand...

Sorry if I got off topic, I was simply addressing the statement about not being able to get any movie or music on the iPad without syncing.

As for backing up. They don't need to understand how do they? I'm guessing most older folk have kids that would be willing to setup whatever backup method they want. Once that's done be it Mobile me or a USB cable it can all be done automatically. Laptop or iPad their are some technical issues to address by the older none tech generation. My opinion is the less options they have to deal with the better. My mom has probably spends less than 10 hours a year on a computer. She's 76 and has never had interest, but does enjoy when all the kids send her pictures and video's to dads email. I can take an iPad to her, load everything she will need, which is very little. Then once every 6 months or year backup and go on.

I have a family pack Mobile me, so my family has zero expense and a free email address which is constantly sync'd and backed up. She doesn't care how it works, just that she can actually operate a device that give her access when her kids and grandkids send her a picture.

KISS

Keep It Simple Stupid.. a phrase I've heard in business many, many times. It's very effective as it applies to the iPad.
 
I think it is a waste of time trying to pigeon hole users. I think they will come from a wide swath of abilities.

From people who use a touch/iPhone and know exactly what they are getting.

To people who were thinking of a kindle or similar, who might not realize everything it "can't do" but realize it does much more than a Kindle.

To people who might be less technically able and just find it fun to use.

To techie geeks like me who never owned Apple products, but realize not every device needs to be a full computer. I am going to try if first, because the is a device that depends on providing a good experience. If it delivers, that trumps "flash" for me and likely many others.

Then I might get one for my Mom who I never succeeded in getting to use a PC, just for email and internet.

I think it will be a success for Apple. We shall see how it plays out.

Any of the naysayers calling failure? (only the sound of crickets chirping)
 
racer1441 said:
Can you give me one example where streaming music is useful? I've got iTunes with all the music I like. And the iPod part of the Pad will play no matter what else you're doing.

I just have never seen the benefit of streaming music, because it's not the music I know I like. It's a crap shoot, like listing to the radio.[I/QUOTE]

How do you find out about new music?
For me it's from online streaming and has been for years. Local radio is awful, at least where I live.
When I want something new, I search for a station that plays types of music I like or punch my favorite artist into pandora.
The other use is listening to stations from my hometown or college.
Click to expand...
 
The common folks who don't know or care what Flash or Multitasking is also don't know or care what an Ipad is. My entire circle of friends now owns an iPod Touch or an iPhone. I had mine a year before any of them got one. None knew what they were or could do until I showed them. The second edition came out with a speaker and volume control, and also for a lower price. Those friends all had one within a month.

The iPad will fail if it can't get US to buy it. The common consumer is not US, but does indeed rely on US to inform him/her about such technology.

I'm not too worried for Apple though. They'll throw in enough potential to keep US interested and we'll all buy one when they go on sale or we have a store discount card/coupon.
 
racer1441 said:
I just have never seen the benefit of streaming music, because it's not the music I know I like. It's a crap shoot, like listing to the radio.
Click to expand...

I use Spotify. I tell it what I want to listen to, and it plays it to me. Some '70's Billy Connolly gig, some Classical Guitar, the works of Brian Eno, the sound track from Roving Mars. Anything I want, when I want it.

Sadly, Steve Jobs doesn't want me to do that, he wants me to buy it all on iTunes - the only music app you CAN multi-task on an iPhone/iPod Touch.

The motives are quite transparent. The iPhone (and the iPod Touch and iPad) CAN multitask. But they multitask in the way Steve wants them to, in the way that is most profitable for him.
 
djellison said:
I use Spotify. I tell it what I want to listen to, and it plays it to me. Some '70's Billy Connolly gig, some Classical Guitar, the works of Brian Eno, the sound track from Roving Mars. Anything I want, when I want it.

Sadly, Steve Jobs doesn't want me to do that, he wants me to buy it all on iTunes - the only music app you CAN multi-task on an iPhone/iPod Touch.

The motives are quite transparent. The iPhone (and the iPod Touch and iPad) CAN multitask. But they multitask in the way Steve wants them to, in the way that is most profitable for him.
Click to expand...

+1

Same for movies and tv shows
 
djellison said:
I use Spotify. I tell it what I want to listen to, and it plays it to me. Some '70's Billy Connolly gig, some Classical Guitar, the works of Brian Eno, the sound track from Roving Mars. Anything I want, when I want it.

Sadly, Steve Jobs doesn't want me to do that, he wants me to buy it all on iTunes - the only music app you CAN multi-task on an iPhone/iPod Touch.
Click to expand...

If you own the CDs, you can rip them yourself, place in iTunes, sync, then listen to them on your iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad while you surf the web.

99.99% of the items in my iTunes library are things I ripped from the CD, not bought from Apple.

What is the problem?
 
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