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crawfish963

macrumors 6502a
Apr 16, 2010
942
1,671
Texas
I would say no. The biggest advantage that Apple has is that they have moved everything in-house, minus 3rd party software. Intel machines will likely always rely on components from different manufacturers so the chip will always be at the mercy of how efficient those devices are. Apple's combo of hardware and software integration is how they are winning. I could maybe see Microsoft catching up somewhat in 2-5 years, but the R&D money they will spend to do it will be almost not worth it.
 
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KPOM

macrumors P6
Oct 23, 2010
18,314
8,330
And how does that relate to the problem or reliability that I discussed? My windows boots in ~10 seconds so I honestly can't see a single problem of any possible kind related to boot speeds with it. And booting ubuntu - who cares, exactly? It is a well-known fact that UNIX systems are lighter than windows. Again, who cares if your hardware is fast and everything boots and loads quickly on windows? I've had zero crashes of the whole system in 2 years and with my mac I've had several absolutely random kernel panics in 7 months that shut down my laptop without warning and without explanation. That is unacceptable. Booting a few seconds slower is acceptable. Random shutdowns are NOT acceptable. And honestly, if M1 macs turn out to have the same problem they will be just as unacceptable for anyone who expects, you know, actual reliability and needs to depend on their system to work and not wipe out their work at random.

If M1 macs prove to have solved this issue entirely, then hats off to them. But this remains to be seen.
That's not my experience at all. I frequently need to restart my Windows 10 PC (work machine) and get "blue screens" all the time (it's a 2018 HP comparable to the 13" MacBook Pro). My Macs have been highly stable.
 
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pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,155
14,579
New Hampshire
I think that Apple is doing a bunch of things that they just unleashed all at once to get these performance figures. I do not know that their competitors can easily catch up because Apple has the whole ecosystem and Apple's competitors typically do not. I also think that there is a requirement of a break with the past and that would also be difficult for most players.

I recall that Apple had a huge lead on laptop touchpads and I think that the Windows world caught up after a decade.

Similarly with Android vs iOS. It took a long time for Android phones to catch up and Android phones often come with far more RAM and better specs on paper but stuff works just as well or better on iOS. It did take Android quite some time to get to parity.
 
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JagdTiger

macrumors 6502
Dec 20, 2017
479
696
Now that we know the M1 chip is giving Apple a big advantage to the Intel/windows combo. When will Intel/windows start going the Arm route?

This entry level M1 is beating some of Intel/AMD’s desktop chip. When the next iteration of the M1 chip comes out for the 16mbp, i mac and mac pro, I think its safe to say it will run circles round Intel and AMD’s most expensive chips.

So when will Intel or AMD or Samsung fab make an ARM based CPU for the windows platform? 3 years? 5 years?

Samsung fab is/will be making 5nm ARM based chips for their phones now. Can samsung work together with windows to make an ARM chip for the windows PC platform?
Intel would have to restructure all or part of it's manufacturing plant.
 

Broko Fankone

macrumors regular
Jun 14, 2020
231
225
That's not my experience at all. I frequently need to restart my Windows 10 PC (work machine) and get "blue screens" all the time (it's a 2018 HP comparable to the 13" MacBook Pro). My Macs have been highly stable.
With the amount of possible configurations it's easy to have problems with just any random windows machine. I, personally, would never buy HP in the first place, but that's just me. But then you have macbooks. Tightly, strictly integrated machines with hand-picked and configured hardware that crash like crazy. I've seen a macbook crash during a work meeting where some people use MBP 2017/2018 models. My work dell latitude laptop has not crashed a SINGLE time in 2 years. My personal windows laptop has only crashed when I tested it for stability as I was undervolting the CPU (that's to be expected). The only problem I had was an expanding battery - an issue not unfamiliar to apple users as well. It can happen. And I've had weird Windows behaviors after updating. Restoring backups is also not great. MacOS definitely wins in that regard - restoring from backup works great, it's easy to do. But rest assured, apps behaving weirdly is a risk after every update. Simply updating Karabiner Elements a week ago almost broke my system in some specific ways. In that regard it is up to the user to be careful.

But in regard to kernel panics - there is no argument that can be used in defense of Apple. For 5 years people have complained about them. Go and find the threads in this forum for yourself, there are probably a ton about various models. And, of course it has happened to me as well, several times, on the 2020 MBP 13 i5 10th gen. If you configure a windows properly it just simply way more reliable and that's a fact, considering how for 5 years Apple were not able to eradicate the same kernel panic issue, and the problems with the T2 chip and BridgeOS.

If anything, M1 has a different security chip and I honestly hope it's a different story. I will be the first to go and buy a MBP from the next generation (no thanks for entry level beta test models that are out now) if the stability is truly there and they simply do not ever crash like that, randomly. I already am impressed with their performance but reliability is king for some, not just performance.
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,155
14,579
New Hampshire
Tiger Lake is 10nm no?

Yes, but they're going back to 14 nm for Rocket Lake - I guess yields have been really bad on 10 nm.

Rocket Lake comes out in Q1. They pushed back their 10 nm and 7 nm schedules earlier this week. So new arch + new process for Tiger Lake and they're using the new arch but old process for Rocket Lake.
 
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Bandaman

Cancelled
Aug 28, 2019
2,005
4,091
Yes, but they're going back to 14 nm for Rocket Lake - I guess yields have been really bad on 10 nm.

Rocket Lake comes out in Q1. They pushed back their 10 nm and 7 nm schedules earlier this week. So new arch + new process for Tiger Lake and they're using the new arch but old process for Rocket Lake.
By the time Intel gets to 7 nm, everyone else will have moved on to quantum computing.
 
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KPOM

macrumors P6
Oct 23, 2010
18,314
8,330
But in regard to kernel panics - there is no argument that can be used in defense of Apple. For 5 years people have complained about them. Go and find the threads in this forum for yourself, there are probably a ton about various models. And, of course it has happened to me as well, several times, on the 2020 MBP 13 i5 10th gen. If you configure a windows properly it just simply way more reliable and that's a fact, considering how for 5 years Apple were not able to eradicate the same kernel panic issue, and the problems with the T2 chip and BridgeOS.

If anything, M1 has a different security chip and I honestly hope it's a different story. I will be the first to go and buy a MBP from the next generation (no thanks for entry level beta test models that are out now) if the stability is truly there and they simply do not ever crash like that, randomly. I already am impressed with their performance but reliability is king for some, not just performance.
My expectation is that the M1 will have fewer issues since, unlike with the Intel models, Apple is not trying to mix and match two disparate architectures. They don't need an ARM64-based BridgeOS and x86-64-based macOS.

By bringing up HP, what I was trying to demonstrate is that it is a premium PC sold for MacBook Pro-like prices (it has all the bells and whistles including the i7 with the corporate security features, Thunderbolt, etc.).
 
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theluggage

macrumors G3
Jul 29, 2011
8,032
8,476
Now that we know the M1 chip is giving Apple a big advantage to the Intel/windows combo. When will Intel/windows start going the Arm route?

Fun but largely irrelevant fact - Intel used to make an ARM processor (it was originally developed by DEC, Intel "inherited" it when DEC split up: https://www.intel.com/pressroom/archive/releases/1999/em033199.htm

However...

The 68000 was better than Intel in 1984
The ARM2 was better than Intel in 1987
The PPC was better than Intel in 1992
DEC Alpha, MIPS, SPARC were all more powerful than Intel in their prime.

...yet everybody is still using "wintel" PCs and even Mac users are whingeing over the demise of Boot Camp. if the industry went with the best technical solution we'd all have been using Acorn Archimedes or Commodore Amiga-descended systems today.

In the early 1980s, Intel had pretty much lost their original lead in the personal computer market to the Zilog Z80. The x86 was a so-so, stopgap, pseudo-16-bit kludge of a chip made by Intel in the early 80s to tide them over their problematic 32 bit iAPX 432 chip. The personal computing world was pretty much waiting for cheap hard drives so they could dump stripped-down operating systems like CP/M and switch to Unix - and we'd have had an industry standard based on a culture of portable source code rather than Intel binary compatibility.

Then some 2-bit outfit called IBM chose the 8086 (technically 8088) for their staggeringly mediocre "me too" personal computer running a clone of CP/M which proceeded to take over the world because "nobody ever got fired for buying IBM" and management types preferred to deal with pinstripe suits selling machines with military-sounding acronyms rather than black turtlenecks selling computers with names from Star Trek or Lord of the Rings. Since then, backward compatibility with Intel binaries has been an albatross around the industry's neck.

Not that intel haven't, from time to time, had good chips - but they've survived their failures because all that legacy software makes them too important to fail, and they have a huge captive market to fund "brute force" solutions. (It's worth remembering that your modern x86 consists of an x86 instruction translator feeding a RISC-like core - and if ARM has a fundamental advantage it is that it can always leave off that translation hardware).

Intel could produce a RISC chip by licensing ARM, using RISC-V... or they're big enough and ugly enough to create their own ISA... but as soon as they drop x86 compatibility then they'll find themselves competing on merit instead of backwards compatibility. Oops. Microsoft has the same issue, which might mean they're not trying too hard with the Surface X.

What may have changed this time is that Wintel have lost a lot of ground to mobile (Turns out that Windows and WIndows Apps sucked on mobile devices, so the legacy card was out of play) and server-based web technologies (using open-source server software, which runs on linux, which runs on pretty much damn anything)... and while the Mac didn't win the format war with PC, it has won a respectable market share and is very visible, so the M1 should do a lot to prove to the world that x86 isn't the only viable processor.

As for the x86 itself - of course Intel (and AMD who aren't so far behind) will play catch up. The legacy code drag-anchor and that big ugly translation unit on every chip will slow them down a bit, but if Apple wants to stay ahead, someone needs to read The Tortoise and the Hare to Tim Cook every night before bed.

Meanwhile, we'll also get to find out what NVIDIA wants to do with ARM. They're now in a position to make ARM SoCs with NVIDIA graphics - and even the brand name is going to make that a force to be reckoned with.
 

hefeglass

macrumors 6502a
Apr 21, 2009
760
423
Until Intel can make ALL the hardware and software that go into a laptop, then no...it will never be able to reach parity with the new apple silicon macs. Everything is integrated, the os and software are specifically designed to run on the apple silicon. The new silicon has been specifically designed to run on this software and this hardware. Its all controlled and designed in house. Vertical integration is also the reason Tesla is so far ahead of the competition.
 
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IowaLynn

macrumors 68020
Feb 22, 2015
2,145
589
There were a lot of updates to Windows this year, had to resort to fresh install. Now better than ever on Surface Laptop 2 (8/128) which uses 7GB - worst culprit is iCloud ?

Had to clean up my mac too when Catalina came - blame it on carrying over a couple years of updates and change.

Mac Mini Intel new, runs Windows even better. The numbers show it isn't using its 16GB vs 8 but maybe...

Sorry not sorry but my Note 20 (8GB) vs iPhone 12, I chose the Note (and S20). Still have Mac ecosystem. Plus Win/Android.

PS: IBM used 68000 and 68040 mostly niche and prototype PC/370 running VTAM, Fortran and 370 code at a time when 80286 PC cost $6500. My SE/30 wasn't much less either.
 
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pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,155
14,579
New Hampshire
That's not my experience at all. I frequently need to restart my Windows 10 PC (work machine) and get "blue screens" all the time (it's a 2018 HP comparable to the 13" MacBook Pro). My Macs have been highly stable.

My system stays up until I reboot it. It is also the home NAS.

I selected quality components and built it myself.

Cougar Max Case
Core i7-10700 (65 Watts TDP)
Arctic eSports Duo CPU Cooler
64 GB Corsair Vengeance DDR4 3200 (2x32)
ASUS TUF Gaming Z490-Plus MB LGA 120
Crucial PS 1 TB 3D NAND NVMe SSD
Crucial 2 TB SATA 3 SSD
Corsair RMS Series RM550x 550 Watt PSU, Gold Certified
Gigabyte Geforce GTX 1050 Ti OC 4 GB GDDR5 128 bit PCI-E Graphics
3x Dell Ultrasharp U2718Q 27inch 4K IPS Monitor
Windows 10 Home
Cooler Master MK730 Tenkeyless Gaming Mechanical Keyboard
Logitech M410 Wireless Computer Mouse

I run:

Fidelity Active Trader Pro
TD Ameritrade Think or Swim
Firefox
macOS Mojave Virtual Machine
Windows 10 Virtual Machine
Emacs
VLC

The CPU typically uses 30 watts running my trading workload and 10 watts when I'm not running my trading workload. Core temps are typically 30 degrees with full workload and about 27 without it. GPU temperature is typically 40 degrees. CPU typically runs between 15 to 20 percent and RAM usage is typically 26-30 GB. This system is super-smooth, quiet and reliable.

Most stuff out there is junk. I looked at a Dell XPS as it would have met my spec requirements but I didn't like the small case design and worried about cooling and the wear and tear of their unique swing-out design. Most people want the lowest price. I wanted quality components that would keep the system running cool as heat isn't a good thing if you want longevity.

I have a 2010 27-inch iMac on a table that I've been meaning to erase using a Firewire cable from another system. The video card died five years ago and it's a $2,000 paperweight. The thing always ran hot and video card problems were notorious for this system. One of the biggest reasons why I'm excited by the new Apple systems is the thermals.
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,155
14,579
New Hampshire
My expectation is that the M1 will have fewer issues since, unlike with the Intel models, Apple is not trying to mix and match two disparate architectures. They don't need an ARM64-based BridgeOS and x86-64-based macOS.

By bringing up HP, what I was trying to demonstrate is that it is a premium PC sold for MacBook Pro-like prices (it has all the bells and whistles including the i7 with the corporate security features, Thunderbolt, etc.).

I have an HP-67 which is a progammable, handheld calculator with tape drive. It is in my desk and still works. I bought it around 1978. HP used to have an incredible reputation for quality, durability and reliability.

I bought an HP desktop around 2005 and the PSU or something else burned out after a year of use. I also had friends that worked there and they complained about Mark Hurd (CEO) doing layoffs left and right, even in divisions that were growing revenues and profits. He got pushed out in a sex scandal. I have not purchased an HP product since then.

I have purchased six Dell monitors in the past five years and they are my preferred supplier of laptops; until the M1. I really don't like the T2 chip nor the TouchBar. I'm fine with 2014/2015 MacBook Pros but they are getting eclipsed by newer CPUs.

I have a Dell XPS Studio that I was using before my new build. I bought this in 2008 for $580 refurbished. It has a Core i7-920 and 48 GB of RAM and it's still quite a good machine for office tasks. I don't need it anymore but it's remarkable how quality can keep an old system relevant.

The performance and level of parts are secondary to me. What I want to know is if a company is using good-quality parts that will last. Or if I can change them myself. The Retina MacBook Pros have proven themselves to me over the long haul and I'm impressed. The 2016-2019 MacBook Pros - not so much. But Apple looks to be redeeming themself.
 
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Moakesy

macrumors 6502a
Mar 1, 2013
576
1,209
UK
By the time the competition catch up and match Apple's current performance per watt of the M1, Apple will be on their third or forth generation product.

The leap that Apple made here is not something that can be turned around quickly at Intel...and it's going to take a lot of time and money.
 

wyatterp

macrumors member
Nov 11, 2020
88
85
I think the writing for Intel has been on the wall for a while, and this chart from Anandtech still shows us the trajectory for A series chips verse Intel - it's clear why Apple went with their own chip, and where it likely goes from here. Perhaps there is a flattening of this trajectory in the next couple years?

1605900769892.png
 

Serban55

Suspended
Oct 18, 2020
2,153
4,344

So, since Apple will do what they are doing with their other arm devices...start lower the price when the new gen comes....since from probably 2021, the macs will run windows again...think how many users will bring to the mac when the current mac mini will be under 500$ or the macbook air under 700$
 

bombardier10

macrumors member
Nov 20, 2020
69
46
It must be noted that apple M1/ARM chip has reached its peak and is limited
by ARM technology now. Already legendary M2 , M3 or Mxxx CPUs don’t
exist in real life. Years will pass before they double or triple M1 performance…

For ARM CPU Expected peak performance uplift of up to 30% year by year
no more….So you can count when ARM catches up the Intel )

But early next year Intel release next 11 gen CPU, for a year 12 gen CPU etc.

Here is a "roadmap" for ARM CPUs. No way to double M1 performance less than a three years.
So I think that M1 or Mxxx never catch up Intel .
 

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pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,155
14,579
New Hampshire
I think the writing for Intel has been on the wall for a while, and this chart from Anandtech still shows us the trajectory for A series chips verse Intel - it's clear why Apple went with their own chip, and where it likely goes from here. Perhaps there is a flattening of this trajectory in the next couple years?

View attachment 1675131

Amazing to see the Tiger Lake regression. It would be interesting to see AMD's results on the chart as well. That Apple's performance has been linear is also remarkable.
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,532
19,714
It must be noted that apple M1/ARM chip has reached its peak and is limited
by ARM technology now.

Apple doesn't use ARM technology. They only use the ARM instruction set. You are linking the roadmap for the CPUs developed by ARM. Apple develops their own chips. ARM doesn't have anything comparable to M1 and won't have it for years to come. Fastest ARM designs are at best comparable to A10/A11
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,532
19,714
Amazing to see the Tiger Lake regression.

There is no Tiger Lake regression. Intel chose to release mobile chips first, so they are clocked slightly lower. Performance per clock for Tiger Lake is very similar to performance per clock for Skylake, but it's more energy efficient. Intel currently peak it at 4.8 ghz, which means about 20-22watts power consumption for the CPU. I expect "bigger" versions of Tiger Lake to go up to 5.1-5.3 ghz like the other chips.
 

JMacHack

Suspended
Mar 16, 2017
1,965
2,424
Intel? Probably not. They're main issue is the current animosity within their own company. Unless a CEO can come in and enforce some order or at least basic civility they're not gonna see much progress. x86 and their troubles with advancing node shrinks are less of a problem than that.

AMD? Maybe. Zen3 puts up a damn good fight against the M1 and still makes the case for x86. If AMD can keep up the pace with IPC we'll see them match step with Apple I think. If not, then they'll be in a position to dump x86 and run ARM or RISC-V APUs similar to the M1.

Others: NVidia and Qualcomm have already announced intentions to bring ARM to laptops and desktops. They smell blood in the water. Samsung can't help copying Apple, so I'd expect them to try their hand eventually, seeing as they own their own fabs. We may see other players join in too, since most companies are fabless anyway, and there's always room at the bottom end for $200 laptops and $100 chromebooks.

Eventually, yeah. Others will catch up with the M1, that's just how technology progresses. Apple's got a solid lead for awhile I think though.
 
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