You're missing the obvious fact that if there is no free drive space available for a page out, or for Safari to download to a cache or for the OS or other apps to use, performance will suffer, even if there is zero fragmentation. In most cases, fragmentation is not a major factor in OS X performance. Stop thinking Windows and start thinking Mac.Excessive memory pags-outs from disk = Horrible performance due to not enough physical memory. Will suck regardless of drive being full or not. Will suck more when the drive is nearly full due to fragmentation.
Drive nearly full = poor disk I/O due to writes being fragmented in order to fit in the remaining, smaller contiguous areas available on the drive.