I renewed and soon after my battery was done for and was replaced for free. The renewal paid for itself. This is of course extremely unlikely if your battery is still at 92% but mine was at 85% dropping fast and ended up going down to 80% in less than 2 months. The signs were already there as battery life was bad. But I used it extensively and had over 800 cycles on the battery so that's why I knew from the start that Applecare would pay for itself eventually.Currently after 3 years my battery is at 98% health.
But make no mistake, Apple just wants to cash in on people who want to keep their Mac for longer and don't replace it as often. Overall Apple still makes a profit or they wouldn't offer the extension.
It's really as simple as that. If this happens to you in the next 12 months you'll either be happy you extended Applecare or you will be annoyed that this one time you didn't have it and it totaled the machine. Nobody can predict the future so no matter how you decide you are equally likely to make the right or the wrong choice.set a glass of water on the counter and then accidentally knocked it over.
Personally I follow this rule of thumb that I only extend Applecare if the Mac was worth more than $3k. If you have a base model then don't bother. If it's an upgraded 2TB Max whatnot power house of a machine that's good for another 2-3 years easily then I'd be more likely to consider it. I maxed mine out back in 2021 so you can bet I extended the coverage.