Yet another Apple Silicon SoC/Mac prediction based on where things are at the end of June

[Yebubbleman]

Here's how I think this is going to go:

For starters, this theory is predicated on the notion that the forthcoming redesigned Apple Silicon 14" replacement of the 13" MacBook Pro and the similarly redesigned Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro will not be using the same SoCs as each other, as might've been assumed before. Also, the notion that Apple separating the 16" MacBook Pro from the 13" MacBook Pro as different products on the website (as well as updating them at different intervals [originally thanks to Intel]) is the start of a greater separation between the two, rather than a further unification.

Here's how this might go:

The 14" MacBook Pro will be introduced this fall. It will have an M2 SoC, which may or may not have higher CPU and GPU core counts than M1, but regardless, be a sizable amount faster. It will feature a redesign, the likes of which, we've been reading rumors about for months now and will bring expandability of RAM to 32GB, 3 Thunderbolt/USB4 ports, HDMI, SD-Card Slot, MagSafe, support for more than one external display, SSD capacities up to 4TB, and a visual look consistent with the rumors. A lower-end model may exist, with give or take one fewer GPU core and Thunderbolt/USB4 Port. Apple will discontinue both the MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 Ports) and the MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020).

At or around the same time, The next Mac mini will be introduced this fall. It will have the same M2 SoC as was just mentioned above with the same specs. We'll get a third Thunderbolt/USB4, give or take the return of the SD slot, give or take a visual redesign, give or take additional USB-A ports. It will also bring expandability of RAM to 32GB and SSD capacities up to 4TB. This will prompt Apple to discontinue the 2018 Intel Mac mini. Apple may also use this time to silently launch the Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro in the current chassis design, if it doesn't release it later on in coincidence with the launch of the Apple Silicon Mac Pro.

In the Spring of 2022, the MacBook Air and the 24" iMac get updated with the same M2 SoC as the 14" MacBook Pro and the Mac mini detailed above on the high-end, and one with a reduced core count on the low end. The MacBook Air gets it rumored redesign to be in line with the 24" iMac a la the iMac G3 and iBook G3. The ports remain the same, give or take the return of MagSafe. The M1 Air might remain on sale for longer as a low-cost option at a lower price point.

At WWDC 2022, Apple unveils the long-awaited 16" version of the redesign introduced by the 14" MacBook Pro. The ports are the same as that of the 14" MacBook Pro, give or take an extra Thunderbolt/USB4 port. Apple also unveils the 30" iMac in a redesign similar to the 24" iMac, except with four Thunderbolt/USB4 ports, four USB-C ports, headphone jack, and 10GbE in the power brick. Both will be powered by the M2X, which features a sizable number of additional cores and/or at faster speeds over M2. Alongside these will be the launch of the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, using a similar, but smaller design from the 2019 model. If the Ice Lake SP Mac Pro hasn't launched by this point in time, it will also do so alongside the Apple Silicon model. The Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be powered by an M2Z, which would either be a special version of the M2X that could be configured for dual-processor/dual-SoC configuration OR an SoC that basically has twice the number of GPU and CPU cores of a standard M2X.

By the end of the opening keynote, all Mac models have an Apple Silicon version going forward. The 2020 Intel 27" iMac will be discontinued at this time. The Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro is still sold for another two to three years. The Intel 16" MacBook Pro is sold until Intel EoLs those 9th Gen CPUs (much in the way that Intel EOLed the CPUs in the iMac Pro causing it to be discontinued). The Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro and the 2019 16" MacBook Pro are the last Intel Macs on the market, for a time, but the hardware transition is complete to the degree that every Mac model will have an Apple Silicon version that is marketed more heavily than the Intel version. (in fact, those two Intel Macs will be drastically de-emphasized, similar to how the still-sold iMac (21.5-inch, 2017) is today.). Hardware transition functionally complete!

Alternate possibility: It's possible that the larger Apple Silicon iMac, the Mac Pro, and the 16" MacBook Pro all have the same beefier processor, but that said processor is of the calibur typically offered by the Mac Pro. The Mac Pro was only substantially separate from the rest of the lineup in the Intel era. In the PowerPC era, the PowerMacs weren't ever too dissimilar from their iMac counterparts (save for dual-CPU systems)

 

[laptech]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2. Not exactly treating it's customers with respect are they. They release the much hyped M1 machines and in less than a year the M2 is being rolled out, which will make the M1 machines obsolete. At least many manufacturers give their customers 1-3 years before they release the next best model. Apple will not have given their customers a year!!!.

 

[thenewperson]

Apple will discontinue both the MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 Ports) and the MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020).

Gurman maintains it'll exist :/

 

[leman]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2. Not exactly treating it's customers with respect are they. They release the much hyped M1 machines and in less than a year the M2 is being rolled out, which will make the M1 machines obsolete. At least many manufacturers give their customers 1-3 years before they release the next best model. Apple will not have given their customers a year!!!.

You have very short memory. The traditional release schedule for Mac was two models per year: one major update (often with a new CPU/GPU) and one minor spec bump. The rate of updates has slowed down around 2016 when Intel and others could not sustain the prior innovation pace anymore.

Now that Apple has moved to their own hardware, they should be able to offer meaningful updates at a higher pace. I expect at least one update per year. To complain that steady innovation is somehow disrespectful to the users is ridiculous even by Macrumour's standards.

 

[laptech]

You have very short memory. The traditional release schedule for Mac was two models per year: one major update (often with a new CPU/GPU) and one minor spec bump. The rate of updates has slowed down around 2016 when Intel and others could not sustain the prior innovation pace anymore.

Now that Apple has moved to their own hardware, they should be able to offer meaningful updates at a higher pace. I expect at least one update per year. To complain that steady innovation is somehow disrespectful to the users is ridiculous even by Macrumour's standards.

Well, when you start to see threads lots of threads and posts from members complaining that they bought an expensive M1 mac only to have it be obsolete when M2 arrives and that they have just wasted a lot of money, i'll expect an apology post from you.

 

[leman]

Well, when you start to see threads lots of threads and posts from members complaining that they bought an expensive M1 mac only to have it be obsolete when M2 arrives and that they have just wasted a lot of money, i'll expect an apology post from you.

Apology for what exactly? What do you suggest Apple do? Stop releasing any new computers because some users might get buthurt that their machine is not the newest and fastest anymore? Come on, this is silly.

 

[malcky77]

This is the world of technology.....it changes ALL the time.....nothing new in that respect.

Why @laptech keeps saying the M1's will be obsolete is daft......the M1 devices will continue to work as intended and for several years to come.

 

[senttoschool]

Well, when you start to see threads lots of threads and posts from members complaining that they bought an expensive M1 mac only to have it be obsolete when M2 arrives and that they have just wasted a lot of money, i'll expect an apology post from you.

Having an M2 laptop out there in the market does not make your M1 laptop slower.

 

[trip1ex]

They'll come out with the 14" and 16" MBP at the same time if they even do a 14" model. They will arrive this fall. They'll have new chips. M2X?

I think the MBA will get updated again in the fall with the M2. Mac Mini maybe too. I highly doubt they will otherwise update the Mini because I don't think it is that big of a seller. Same with iMac. But like the Mini they might put the new M2 in there. Given the iMac was released this year I guess it wouldn't be updated right away with the M2.

Bigger iMac will come next year. And probably be way too expensive. I'd guess minimum $2200 to start with low specs. Wouldn't be surprised to see an even higher price because the 24" iMac is nearly $2k if you upgrade to 16gb RAM and 512GB SSD. And good chance they make the big iMac an iMac Pro which a $3k pricepoint to start.

Mac Pro comes out in time for WWDC 2022.

 

[JMacHack]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2. Not exactly treating it's customers with respect are they. They release the much hyped M1 machines and in less than a year the M2 is being rolled out, which will make the M1 machines obsolete. At least many manufacturers give their customers 1-3 years before they release the next best model. Apple will not have given their customers a year!!!.

People whine when Apple doesn’t update the Mac fast enough, now you’re whining that they’re updating it too fast.

 

[wornish]

So are you suggesting that Apple won't continue with the 27" iMac or an even larger screen version?

 

[cbum]

I could imagine there may be a rush to an M2 (whatever it is called) because of the limited RAM issue of the M1 models.

 

[pshufd]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2. Not exactly treating it's customers with respect are they. They release the much hyped M1 machines and in less than a year the M2 is being rolled out, which will make the M1 machines obsolete. At least many manufacturers give their customers 1-3 years before they release the next best model. Apple will not have given their customers a year!!!.

I don't see that it matters. People typically hold onto Macs for at least three years and the offerings in 2023 will be miles ahead of what they have. We have the same model in phones too.

I'm one of those few people that will upgrade to something better when it comes out because I want more than the M1 and have someone who would be very happy to take an M1 system.

 

[Bug-Creator]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2

Apple has been doing yearly upgrades to their silicon for years, and most of the times they add around 20% in performance (per core) so nothing unusual here.

As to OP, I'll start from a different angle, what I think Apple had planned last year when the transition started:

late 2020: MBA, silver Mini and base MBP with M1 in the old shells (what we got)
early 2021: All remaining MBPs and Mini in old shells with M1x
2nd quarter 2021: small iMac with M1 and M1x (2 fan versions) in redesigned shell
late 2021 : iMacPro with a really big M2z + MBA (2 sizes?) and base Mini with M2 (all in new shells)
early 2022: bigger MBP and Mini with M2x (also in new shells)
late 2022: something they consider worthy the MacPro name

M1x is a no-show and I doubt it ever will, which leaves the question if the M2 is ready and if in what versions? Out of the 3 version I mentioned above I expect at least one to be delayed till 2022 maybe even 2. So in a worst case it might be just an iMacPro we get to see this year.

 

[Zdigital2015]

Well, when you start to see threads lots of threads and posts from members complaining that they bought an expensive M1 mac only to have it be obsolete when M2 arrives and that they have just wasted a lot of money, i'll expect an apology post from you.

Explain how my M1 MacBook Pro is going to obsolete? Is my Core i9-9900K 27" iMac obsolete now after it was replaced by the Core i9-10910? I spent a lot of money on my Core i9-9900K iMac. Am I supposed to get an apology from Apple? Or am I supposed to get an apology from Intel for daring to replace the 9900K with the 10910? Am I supposed to get a voucher for a latte at Starbucks, a phone call or a steak dinner? Did my 2019 27" iMac all of sudden stop working because the 2020 27" iMac was shipped? Will my M1 13" MacBook Pro suddenly stop working when an updated ASi model ships? Should the 2015 15" MacBook Pro I'm typing this message on suddenly stop working now or should it have stopped the second the 2016 15" MacBook Pro was shipped? Should I still be expecting a condolences card from Apple that has never arrived? Do you realize how ridiculous you sound in your previous two posts? Please spare me the sarcasm defense, as I don't see a /s tag in either one of your missives.

On the one hand, everyone is bitching because Apple didn't ship M2 MacBook Pros and a 30" iMac at WWDC, now some of you are saying Apple shouldn't be shipping M2 MacBook Pros and a 30" iMac because the M1 hasn't been out long enough? Which is it, because it can't be both.

 

[pshufd]

Explain how my M1 MacBook Pro is going to obsolete? Is my Core i9-9900K 27" iMac obsolete now after it was replaced by the Core i9-10910? I spent a lot of money on my Core i9-9900K iMac. Am I supposed to get an apology from Apple? Or am I supposed to get an apology from Intel for daring to replace the 9900K with the 10910? Am I supposed to get a voucher for a latte at Starbucks, a phone call or a steak dinner? Did my 2019 27" iMac all of sudden stop working because the 2020 27" iMac was shipped? Will my M1 13" MacBook Pro suddenly stop working when an updated ASi model ships? Should the 2015 15" MacBook Pro I'm typing this message on suddenly stop working now or should it have stopped the second the 2016 15" MacBook Pro was shipped? Should I still be expecting a condolences card from Apple that has never arrived? Do you realize how ridiculous you sound in your previous two posts? Please spare me the sarcasm defense, as I don't see a /s tag in either one of your missives.

On the one hand, everyone is bitching because Apple didn't ship M2 MacBook Pros and a 30" iMac at WWDC, now some of you are saying Apple shouldn't be shipping M2 MacBook Pros and a 30" iMac because the M1 hasn't been out long enough? Which is it, because it can't be both.

Old Macs are in demand - you just have to have a reasonable asking price. I still use old Macs.

 

[Zdigital2015]

Old Macs are in demand - you just have to have a reasonable asking price. I still use old Macs.

View attachment 1799042

Yes, but the OP I am responding to keep calling attention to how the M1 Macs would be made obsolete if an M2 Mac is released and I’m asking him how that is going to happen, because I (and you) both know that “obsolete” is a term thrown around this forum without a basic form of understanding by most as a byword towards Apple. Too many people wanting new M2, but suddenly people want to claim that screws over M1 owners. These threads are full of crazies, IMHO.

 

[pshufd]

Yes, but the OP I am responding to keep calling attention to how the M1 Macs would be made obsolete if an M2 Mac is released and I’m asking him how that is going to happen, because I (and you) both know that “obsolete” is a term thrown around this forum without a basic form of understanding by most as a byword towards Apple. Too many people wanting new M2, but suddenly people want to claim that screws over M1 owners. These threads are full of crazies, IMHO.

They are not going to be obsolete. They will be like other Macs, in use ten years from when they were purchased.

 

[Zdigital2015]

They are not going to be obsolete. They will be like other Macs, in use ten years from when they were purchased.

You know that and I know that, but I don’t think they know that.

 

[bunty07]

Here's how I think this is going to go:

For starters, this theory is predicated on the notion that the forthcoming redesigned Apple Silicon 14" replacement of the 13" MacBook Pro and the similarly redesigned Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro will not be using the same SoCs as each other, as might've been assumed before. Also, the notion that Apple separating the 16" MacBook Pro from the 13" MacBook Pro as different products on the website (as well as updating them at different intervals [originally thanks to Intel]) is the start of a greater separation between the two, rather than a further unification.

Here's how this might go:

The 14" MacBook Pro will be introduced this fall. It will have an M2 SoC, which may or may not have higher CPU and GPU core counts than M1, but regardless, be a sizable amount faster. It will feature a redesign, the likes of which, we've been reading rumors about for months now and will bring expandability of RAM to 32GB, 3 Thunderbolt/USB4 ports, HDMI, SD-Card Slot, MagSafe, support for more than one external display, SSD capacities up to 4TB, and a visual look consistent with the rumors. A lower-end model may exist, with give or take one fewer GPU core and Thunderbolt/USB4 Port. Apple will discontinue both the MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 Ports) and the MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020).

At or around the same time, The next Mac mini will be introduced this fall. It will have the same M2 SoC as was just mentioned above with the same specs. We'll get a third Thunderbolt/USB4, give or take the return of the SD slot, give or take a visual redesign, give or take additional USB-A ports. It will also bring expandability of RAM to 32GB and SSD capacities up to 4TB. This will prompt Apple to discontinue the 2018 Intel Mac mini. Apple may also use this time to silently launch the Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro in the current chassis design, if it doesn't release it later on in coincidence with the launch of the Apple Silicon Mac Pro.

In the Spring of 2022, the MacBook Air and the 24" iMac get updated with the same M2 SoC as the 14" MacBook Pro and the Mac mini detailed above on the high-end, and one with a reduced core count on the low end. The MacBook Air gets it rumored redesign to be in line with the 24" iMac a la the iMac G3 and iBook G3. The ports remain the same, give or take the return of MagSafe. The M1 Air might remain on sale for longer as a low-cost option at a lower price point.

At WWDC 2022, Apple unveils the long-awaited 16" version of the redesign introduced by the 14" MacBook Pro. The ports are the same as that of the 14" MacBook Pro, give or take an extra Thunderbolt/USB4 port. Apple also unveils the 30" iMac in a redesign similar to the 24" iMac, except with four Thunderbolt/USB4 ports, four USB-C ports, headphone jack, and 10GbE in the power brick. Both will be powered by the M2X, which features a sizable number of additional cores and/or at faster speeds over M2. Alongside these will be the launch of the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, using a similar, but smaller design from the 2019 model. If the Ice Lake SP Mac Pro hasn't launched by this point in time, it will also do so alongside the Apple Silicon model. The Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be powered by an M2Z, which would either be a special version of the M2X that could be configured for dual-processor/dual-SoC configuration OR an SoC that basically has twice the number of GPU and CPU cores of a standard M2X.

By the end of the opening keynote, all Mac models have an Apple Silicon version going forward. The 2020 Intel 27" iMac will be discontinued at this time. The Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro is still sold for another two to three years. The Intel 16" MacBook Pro is sold until Intel EoLs those 9th Gen CPUs (much in the way that Intel EOLed the CPUs in the iMac Pro causing it to be discontinued). The Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro and the 2019 16" MacBook Pro are the last Intel Macs on the market, for a time, but the hardware transition is complete to the degree that every Mac model will have an Apple Silicon version that is marketed more heavily than the Intel version. (in fact, those two Intel Macs will be drastically de-emphasized, similar to how the still-sold iMac (21.5-inch, 2017) is today.). Hardware transition functionally complete!

Alternate possibility: It's possible that the larger Apple Silicon iMac, the Mac Pro, and the 16" MacBook Pro all have the same beefier processor, but that said processor is of the calibur typically offered by the Mac Pro. The Mac Pro was only substantially separate from the rest of the lineup in the Intel era. In the PowerPC era, the PowerMacs weren't ever too dissimilar from their iMac counterparts (save for dual-CPU systems)

I have a feeling 2022 is going to be the year of the pros and M2. I don’t think there is going to be a M1X.
I think Apple might just end of the year with iPhone and Apple Watch.
I am keeping my expectations low. ?

 

[scaramoosh]

The CPU doesn't need much improvement, it all comes down to Ram and GPU for me. I'm hoping to see 16GB be base and the GPU hitting 3060ti levels of performance.

I think the reality will be Apple sticks to 8GB because their 16GB upgrade is extortionate. I think the GPU will only be twice as powerful as the M1, which puts at mid ranged 1000 series Nvidia.

 

[ZachNathan]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2. Not exactly treating it's customers with respect are they. They release the much hyped M1 machines and in less than a year the M2 is being rolled out, which will make the M1 machines obsolete. At least many manufacturers give their customers 1-3 years before they release the next best model. Apple will not have given their customers a year!!!.

I'm not sure why you're expecting Apple to treat M-series Macs as any different than say iPhones or iPad Pros... Why is it so shocking that a new iteration of M(x) processors would come so soon after initial launch, particularly with Apple's hardwired yearly update schedule? 6 months, I'd also be irate. But a year? That's standard.

Of course, I understand. I have the entry model 24in iMac that will ABSOLUTELY be wrecked with the next M-series or whenever they default to 16GB of RAM. Watch that be base going forward this fall heh...

It'll suck, but it's just something you accept for being an early adopter/using cutting edge tech.

 

[erich.j.k]

As to OP, I'll start from a different angle, what I think Apple had planned last year when the transition started:

late 2020: MBA, silver Mini and base MBP with M1 in the old shells (what we got)
early 2021: All remaining MBPs and Mini in old shells with M1x

Which would mean, that Apple was confronted with problems they couldn't overcome?

Since there were no rumours whatsoever that the "delay" (if there ever was one) was their own fault, I would disagree on this point. So many rumours pointed to a WWDC announcement.

I had expected the transition to be faster. No, it is more a "wish", than an expectation. I've been waiting to switch to an M<?> (insert what you like) but want a little more RAM. So I'll just have to wait. It would be somewhat disappointing though, if e.g. the 14" would come with a M2 that would then be the same SoC as that of an MBA. In that case they could hardly justify the price of the 14" (which will probably be somewhere close to 2k US$).

 

[Bug-Creator]

Since there were no rumours whatsoever that the "delay"

These rumours/leaks only seem to happen when stuff gets to the "supply chain" and it might have never gone that far.

So many rumours pointed to a WWDC announcement.

Just like many rumours pointed to a March/April release.

- a geekbench result did appear in late 2020 for what would have been a M1x
- releasing M1x MBP/Mini before the redesigned iMac would have made a lot of sense
- having that 2nd fan in some iMacs makes no sense when all have the same chip (-1 GPU core)
- not getting any progress almost 1 year into a 2 year transition period doesn't add up

So I see 2 options:
- M1x was buggy, slow or yields would have been low
- M2 was making faster progress while M1x was lagging behind and it got the MC68050 treatment (aka canceled for being to little to late)

 

[Realityck]

On the one hand, everyone is bitching because Apple didn't ship M2 MacBook Pros and a 30" iMac at WWDC, now some of you are saying Apple shouldn't be shipping M2 MacBook Pros and a 30" iMac because the M1 hasn't been out long enough? Which is it, because it can't be both.

Why can't it be both. The 24" M1 iMac only came out in April, arrived May 21st, now some were expecting November M1 to be eclipsed by a M2 as early as June 7? Seems like it's the same for both, hoping for M2 models too soon, hoping M1 is superseded by M2 too soon, hopping for existing M1 models to have M2 models too soon. Perhaps the rumors were way too optimistic.