Yet another Apple Silicon SoC/Mac prediction based on where things are at the end of June

[One2Grift]

You have very short memory. The traditional release schedule for Mac was two models per year: one major update (often with a new CPU/GPU) and one minor spec bump. The rate of updates has slowed down around 2016 when Intel and others could not sustain the prior innovation pace anymore.

Now that Apple has moved to their own hardware, they should be able to offer meaningful updates at a higher pace. I expect at least one update per year. To complain that steady innovation is somehow disrespectful to the users is ridiculous even by Macrumour's standards.

Well said.
The bold item isn’t fully appreciated. When you have two different companies (even if they are close) the engineering loop will be a bit more onerous. It’s the nature of the beast.
Apple brining the M series in house should make concept/upgrade to prototype/beta to market streamlined. As such I also expect to see Mac updates at a more frequent pace (assuming it adds up to improved business).
Apple saw Q1 2020 to Q1 2021 Mac shipment increase of 112%. A 2.2% market share increase(the biggest increase of the big 5 pc makers). This definitely could be a covid related spike as the big 5 all saw Q1 demand well above expected. However Apple’s increase was way above any of the other top 5 (Acer second at 74%). Is it the effect of the M1 and Apple’s in house ability? Q2 ends on Friday. This quarter’s results will help clarify it more.

 

[Zdigital2015]

Why can't it be both. The 24" M1 iMac only came out in April, arrived May 21st, now some were expecting November M1 to be eclipsed by a M2 as early as June 7? Seems like it's the same for both, hoping for M2 models too soon, hoping M1 is superseded by M2 too soon, hopping for existing M1 models to have M2 models too soon. Perhaps the rumors were way too optimistic.

The 24" iMac is not going to get superseded by the M2 inside of 6 months. Apple does not operate that way. The 30" iMac will have the M2 and be more powerful. People on these forums wishing for an M2 24" iMac are deluding themselves thinking Apple is going to replace the SoC that quickly. If Apple does, current owners will cry foul. Apple cannot win with people here on these forums who have severe issues with how reality works or feel entitled to something more than what Apple currently sells.

 

[transpo1]

Here's how I think this is going to go:

For starters, this theory is predicated on the notion that the forthcoming redesigned Apple Silicon 14" replacement of the 13" MacBook Pro and the similarly redesigned Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro will not be using the same SoCs as each other, as might've been assumed before. Also, the notion that Apple separating the 16" MacBook Pro from the 13" MacBook Pro as different products on the website (as well as updating them at different intervals [originally thanks to Intel]) is the start of a greater separation between the two, rather than a further unification.

Here's how this might go:

The 14" MacBook Pro will be introduced this fall. It will have an M2 SoC, which may or may not have higher CPU and GPU core counts than M1, but regardless, be a sizable amount faster. It will feature a redesign, the likes of which, we've been reading rumors about for months now and will bring expandability of RAM to 32GB, 3 Thunderbolt/USB4 ports, HDMI, SD-Card Slot, MagSafe, support for more than one external display, SSD capacities up to 4TB, and a visual look consistent with the rumors. A lower-end model may exist, with give or take one fewer GPU core and Thunderbolt/USB4 Port. Apple will discontinue both the MacBook Pro (13-inch, 2020, Four Thunderbolt 3 Ports) and the MacBook Pro (13-inch, M1, 2020).

At or around the same time, The next Mac mini will be introduced this fall. It will have the same M2 SoC as was just mentioned above with the same specs. We'll get a third Thunderbolt/USB4, give or take the return of the SD slot, give or take a visual redesign, give or take additional USB-A ports. It will also bring expandability of RAM to 32GB and SSD capacities up to 4TB. This will prompt Apple to discontinue the 2018 Intel Mac mini. Apple may also use this time to silently launch the Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro in the current chassis design, if it doesn't release it later on in coincidence with the launch of the Apple Silicon Mac Pro.

In the Spring of 2022, the MacBook Air and the 24" iMac get updated with the same M2 SoC as the 14" MacBook Pro and the Mac mini detailed above on the high-end, and one with a reduced core count on the low end. The MacBook Air gets it rumored redesign to be in line with the 24" iMac a la the iMac G3 and iBook G3. The ports remain the same, give or take the return of MagSafe. The M1 Air might remain on sale for longer as a low-cost option at a lower price point.

At WWDC 2022, Apple unveils the long-awaited 16" version of the redesign introduced by the 14" MacBook Pro. The ports are the same as that of the 14" MacBook Pro, give or take an extra Thunderbolt/USB4 port. Apple also unveils the 30" iMac in a redesign similar to the 24" iMac, except with four Thunderbolt/USB4 ports, four USB-C ports, headphone jack, and 10GbE in the power brick. Both will be powered by the M2X, which features a sizable number of additional cores and/or at faster speeds over M2. Alongside these will be the launch of the Apple Silicon Mac Pro, using a similar, but smaller design from the 2019 model. If the Ice Lake SP Mac Pro hasn't launched by this point in time, it will also do so alongside the Apple Silicon model. The Apple Silicon Mac Pro will be powered by an M2Z, which would either be a special version of the M2X that could be configured for dual-processor/dual-SoC configuration OR an SoC that basically has twice the number of GPU and CPU cores of a standard M2X.

By the end of the opening keynote, all Mac models have an Apple Silicon version going forward. The 2020 Intel 27" iMac will be discontinued at this time. The Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro is still sold for another two to three years. The Intel 16" MacBook Pro is sold until Intel EoLs those 9th Gen CPUs (much in the way that Intel EOLed the CPUs in the iMac Pro causing it to be discontinued). The Ice Lake-SP Mac Pro and the 2019 16" MacBook Pro are the last Intel Macs on the market, for a time, but the hardware transition is complete to the degree that every Mac model will have an Apple Silicon version that is marketed more heavily than the Intel version. (in fact, those two Intel Macs will be drastically de-emphasized, similar to how the still-sold iMac (21.5-inch, 2017) is today.). Hardware transition functionally complete!

Alternate possibility: It's possible that the larger Apple Silicon iMac, the Mac Pro, and the 16" MacBook Pro all have the same beefier processor, but that said processor is of the calibur typically offered by the Mac Pro. The Mac Pro was only substantially separate from the rest of the lineup in the Intel era. In the PowerPC era, the PowerMacs weren't ever too dissimilar from their iMac counterparts (save for dual-CPU systems)

No way Apple will let the 16” sit that long without an update unless ”global chip shortage” wins. They will update it this fall.

 

[andrewstirling]

Well, when you start to see threads lots of threads and posts from members complaining that they bought an expensive M1 mac only to have it be obsolete when M2 arrives and that they have just wasted a lot of money, i'll expect an apology post from you.

Obsolete in what way? New processors come out all the time. It would be absurd if there wasn’t an M2 fairly soon. And when it does, your machine will still work just as well as it did before they released the M2

 

[Yebubbleman]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2. Not exactly treating it's customers with respect are they. They release the much hyped M1 machines and in less than a year the M2 is being rolled out, which will make the M1 machines obsolete. At least many manufacturers give their customers 1-3 years before they release the next best model. Apple will not have given their customers a year!!!.

I was thinking in my original post that we'd get those first updates (to the mini and the redesigned 14" MacBook Pros) in November of this year, making it one full year, which wouldn't be bad. If anything, it's still longer than the 8-10 month cycles that MacBook Pros used to have before Intel started staggering chip releases like they did with Broadwell and then again with 9th Generation.

Gurman maintains it'll exist :/

Which one? And do you have a link to an article? I'd be very curious to see more about this!

They'll come out with the 14" and 16" MBP at the same time if they even do a 14" model. They will arrive this fall. They'll have new chips. M2X?

I think that's what every rumor that has come out thus far has implied, but I've also heard that the 16" model may see delays into next year. Similarly, it seems as though Apple is okay treating the two sizes of MacBook Pros as different classes of computer, even heading into the Apple Silicon era. But I don't know. I could totally see it going either way at this point.

I think the MBA will get updated again in the fall with the M2. Mac Mini maybe too. I highly doubt they will otherwise update the Mini because I don't think it is that big of a seller.

The Mac mini needs to be updated as even Apple realizes that the current M1 mini isn't a complete substitute for the higher-end versions of the 2018 Mac mini.

So are you suggesting that Apple won't continue with the 27" iMac or an even larger screen version?

No. Sorry if what I wrote made it seem like I did. I'm thinking that Apple will totally replace the 27" iMac with a 30" Apple Silicon model. Likely with an M2X type of SoC to put it in parity with the Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro.

I have a feeling 2022 is going to be the year of the pros and M2. I don’t think there is going to be a M1X.
I think Apple might just end of the year with iPhone and Apple Watch.
I am keeping my expectations low. ?

It kind of seems like they're trying to ditch X and Z marketing for their beefier SoCs and just separate out by classes such that:

A series - iPhones, iPad mini/Air/standard, iPod touch, Apple TV

M series - iPad Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini, 13/14" MacBook Pro

? series - 16" MacBook Pro, 27"/30" iMac

?? series - Mac Pro (unless it was simply that the Mac Pro used the same SoCs that the 16" MacBook Pro and larger iMac used except with the ability to have two of them operating in tandem [or at least double the core counts for the same overall effect])

Why can't it be both. The 24" M1 iMac only came out in April, arrived May 21st, now some were expecting November M1 to be eclipsed by a M2 as early as June 7? Seems like it's the same for both, hoping for M2 models too soon, hoping M1 is superseded by M2 too soon, hopping for existing M1 models to have M2 models too soon. Perhaps the rumors were way too optimistic.

June/July for M2 seemed early. I'd have believed it for M1X given that the X typically denotes a superset of the same overall series. But for M2, it definitely seemed early for the exact same reasons you give here.

The 24" iMac is not going to get superseded by the M2 inside of 6 months. Apple does not operate that way. The 30" iMac will have the M2 and be more powerful. People on these forums wishing for an M2 24" iMac are deluding themselves thinking Apple is going to replace the SoC that quickly. If Apple does, current owners will cry foul. Apple cannot win with people here on these forums who have severe issues with how reality works or feel entitled to something more than what Apple currently sells.

My prediction was that the M2 24" iMac would be launching between February and April of next year, along with the M2 MacBook Air. That seems appropriate and, especially given that it seems as though Apple wants to restore the unity between those two that originally existed between the iMac and the iBook of old had. I could easily see it being the same media event for both.

No way Apple will let the 16” sit that long without an update unless ”global chip shortage” wins. They will update it this fall.

I think that's the idea. That and the display technology they want to use seems to be delayed until 2022 (whereas it sounds like it'll be ready for the 14" MacBook Pro a bit sooner, hence my prediction of the two being staggered as well as using different classes of SoCs).

 

[transpo1]

I was thinking in my original post that we'd get those first updates (to the mini and the redesigned 14" MacBook Pros) in November of this year, making it one full year, which wouldn't be bad. If anything, it's still longer than the 8-10 month cycles that MacBook Pros used to have before Intel started staggering chip releases like they did with Broadwell and then again with 9th Generation.



Which one? And do you have a link to an article? I'd be very curious to see more about this!



I think that's what every rumor that has come out thus far has implied, but I've also heard that the 16" model may see delays into next year. Similarly, it seems as though Apple is okay treating the two sizes of MacBook Pros as different classes of computer, even heading into the Apple Silicon era. But I don't know. I could totally see it going either way at this point.



The Mac mini needs to be updated as even Apple realizes that the current M1 mini isn't a complete substitute for the higher-end versions of the 2018 Mac mini.




No. Sorry if what I wrote made it seem like I did. I'm thinking that Apple will totally replace the 27" iMac with a 30" Apple Silicon model. Likely with an M2X type of SoC to put it in parity with the Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro.



It kind of seems like they're trying to ditch X and Z marketing for their beefier SoCs and just separate out by classes such that:

A series - iPhones, iPad mini/Air/standard, iPod touch, Apple TV

M series - iPad Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini, 13/14" MacBook Pro

? series - 16" MacBook Pro, 27"/30" iMac

?? series - Mac Pro (unless it was simply that the Mac Pro used the same SoCs that the 16" MacBook Pro and larger iMac used except with the ability to have two of them operating in tandem [or at least double the core counts for the same overall effect])


June/July for M2 seemed early. I'd have believed it for M1X given that the X typically denotes a superset of the same overall series. But for M2, it definitely seemed early for the exact same reasons you give here.


My prediction was that the M2 24" iMac would be launching between February and April of next year, along with the M2 MacBook Air. That seems appropriate and, especially given that it seems as though Apple wants to restore the unity between those two that originally existed between the iMac and the iBook of old had. I could easily see it being the same media event for both.

I think that's the idea. That and the display technology they want to use seems to be delayed until 2022 (whereas it sounds like it'll be ready for the 14" MacBook Pro a bit sooner, hence my prediction of the two being staggered as well as using different classes of SoCs).

Anything is possible in chip transition during a global supply crisis, but— I can’t see them releasing the 14” — a replacement for the 13” which was updated with the M1 in November — before they launch the 16”, which hasn’t been updated for a LONG time. I predict both announced in October, shipping November.

 

[jk73]

At WWDC 2022, Apple unveils the long-awaited 16" version of the redesign introduced by the 14" MacBook Pro.

No chance Apple is going to go ~1,000 days between updates of the 16-inch MBP. Also no chance Apple will leave its 16-inch MBPs incapable of fully running Monterey for almost a year. (Some features of Monterey reportedly require Apple silicon.)

 

[senttoschool]

No chance Apple is going to go ~1,000 days between updates of the 16-inch MBP. Also no chance Apple will leave its 16-inch MBPs incapable of fully running Monterey for almost a year. (Some features of Monterey reportedly require Apple silicon.)

Yes, I also think Apple wants to take the multi-thread performance crown sooner than later by releasing the biggest laptop chip they can make right now with the 16".

 

[Fomalhaut]

Well, when you start to see threads lots of threads and posts from members complaining that they bought an expensive M1 mac only to have it be obsolete when M2 arrives and that they have just wasted a lot of money, i'll expect an apology post from you.

So by your argument, all innovation must accomodate the unrealistic emotional expectations of a small percentage of existing customers? Right....

In what way would M1 buyers (like myself) have "wasted a lot of money" if Apple releases a better machine in a few months time? I will have had the use of an excellent machine for nearly a year, and will continue to use it. New buyers will get a better machine, but will have missed the pleasure of using the best current machine for the same amount of time that I have. So who has "won"?

Would I upgrade immediately if something much better came out? Probably not, but I might consider it, and if I was enamoured by the newer model, I could always simply upgrade and sell the old one.

I do understand that for many people, a computer purchase has to last for many years and so "getting a good deal" in terms or price/performance is important to them. There may be better times to get "on-board" than others. I bought a 2019 MBP16 that was the most expensive computer I had bought to date, which is now outperformed in many tasks by a computer costing less than half the price. In hindsight it wasn't the best value purchase, but I've used the machine for work and so have had lots of utility from it. I couldn't predict the arrival of the M1 at the time, but I'm happy it works so well, for me and for new users.

Most existing or potential customers are delighted by a faster pace of development so that computers get significantly better year-on-year. Why aren't you?

Getting upset by progress, and failing to understand that we are part of a cycle of technology, in which there is always a better model around the corner, is a sure sign of emotional immaturity.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Anything is possible in chip transition during a global supply crisis, but— I can’t see them releasing the 14” — a replacement for the 13” which was updated with the M1 in November — before they launch the 16”, which hasn’t been updated for a LONG time. I predict both announced in October, shipping November.

I think it honestly depends on which SoC they want to throw into the 16" and if that SoC is different from what they want to throw into the 13"/14". Supply chain rumors seem to indicate that, as far as Apple Silicon replacements go, the 14" MacBook Pro will be ready before the 16" MacBook Pro. Certainly from that front (as well as how MacBook Pro marketing seems to have been going since late 2019), I could see Apple treating the two as different products with different timetables.

No chance Apple is going to go ~1,000 days between updates of the 16-inch MBP.

Would you have guessed that they were going to go this long without updating it? My point is that time in between updates doesn't seem to matter as, if it did, we probably would've gotten that rumored Intel 2020 model that never ended up materializing. That's not to say that Apple seems likely to do wit the 16" MacBook Pro what they've done with the Mac Pro. Just that they're probably okay with delaying the update, especially if what they're delaying it for completely blows away what they're replacing.

Also no chance Apple will leave its 16-inch MBPs incapable of fully running Monterey for almost a year. (Some features of Monterey reportedly require Apple silicon.)

That much, I can safely tell you, won't matter much. Especially since all of those features are consumer-oriented. Also "incapable of fully running Monterey" is a bit of a stretch. We're talking about a few features that specifically lean into machine learning and don't affect overall use of the OS. There's one or two features that require, not just an M1 Mac, but one with 16GB of RAM too. So, I'd say that this isn't enough of a reason for a rush to update here.

 

[senttoschool]

Would you have guessed that they were going to go this long without updating it? My point is that time in between updates doesn't seem to matter as, if it did, we probably would've gotten that rumored Intel 2020 model that never ended up materializing. That's not to say that Apple seems likely to do wit the 16" MacBook Pro what they've done with the Mac Pro. Just that they're probably okay with delaying the update, especially if what they're delaying it for completely blows away what they're replacing.

The lack of an update to the Intel 16" MBP makes it more likely that an ARM 16" gets introduced this year.

 

[thenewperson]

Which one? And do you have a link to an article? I'd be very curious to see more about this!

It's a paragraph near the end of the recent report about the MBPs.

"For a redesigned, higher-end MacBook Air planned for as early as the end of the year, Apple is planning a direct successor to the M1 processor. That chip, codenamed Staten, will include the same number of computing cores as the M1 but run faster. It will also see the number of graphics cores increase from seven or eight to nine or 10. Apple is also planning an update to the low-end 13-inch MacBook Pro with that same chip."

 

[pshufd]

It's a paragraph near the end of the recent report about the MBPs.

"For a redesigned, higher-end MacBook Air planned for as early as the end of the year, Apple is planning a direct successor to the M1 processor. That chip, codenamed Staten, will include the same number of computing cores as the M1 but run faster. It will also see the number of graphics cores increase from seven or eight to nine or 10. Apple is also planning an update to the low-end 13-inch MacBook Pro with that same chip."

That seems more plausible than them coming out this summer. I saw a chart on car inventories and they are awful right now. GPUs are still ridiculous and so I think that chips and the raw materials for making chips are in short supply and an EOY launch would make more sense, particularly since Apple prioritizes phones over Macs.

 

[tom.humphrey]

M1 machines were only released back in Novemeber 2020 and in less than 1 year Apple are supposedly bringing out the much better M2. Not exactly treating it's customers with respect are they. They release the much hyped M1 machines and in less than a year the M2 is being rolled out, which will make the M1 machines obsolete. At least many manufacturers give their customers 1-3 years before they release the next best model. Apple will not have given their customers a year!!!.

Machines only go “obsolete” when they’re stopped being supported. No one is saying that the M1 won’t be supported anymore.

Also, most tech manufacturers roll on a yearly release schedule.

 

[transpo1]

I think it honestly depends on which SoC they want to throw into the 16" and if that SoC is different from what they want to throw into the 13"/14". Supply chain rumors seem to indicate that, as far as Apple Silicon replacements go, the 14" MacBook Pro will be ready before the 16" MacBook Pro. Certainly from that front (as well as how MacBook Pro marketing seems to have been going since late 2019), I could see Apple treating the two as different products with different timetables.



Would you have guessed that they were going to go this long without updating it? My point is that time in between updates doesn't seem to matter as, if it did, we probably would've gotten that rumored Intel 2020 model that never ended up materializing. That's not to say that Apple seems likely to do wit the 16" MacBook Pro what they've done with the Mac Pro. Just that they're probably okay with delaying the update, especially if what they're delaying it for completely blows away what they're replacing.


That much, I can safely tell you, won't matter much. Especially since all of those features are consumer-oriented. Also "incapable of fully running Monterey" is a bit of a stretch. We're talking about a few features that specifically lean into machine learning and don't affect overall use of the OS. There's one or two features that require, not just an M1 Mac, but one with 16GB of RAM too. So, I'd say that this isn't enough of a reason for a rush to update here.

16” in fall unless something has gone terribly wrong with engineering or supply from TSMC. Apple likes to sell hardware.

And it would be weird to launch a new form factor 14” design and let that be the flagship of the ASi lineup along with the current MacBook M1 13”.

I’m not saying you’re definitely wrong (as Apple does have a reputation for shipping when products are ready), but I’m saying it’s much more likely that we will see both the 14 and 16” revised MBPs launch this fall as most people expect.

 

[jk73]

Would you have guessed that they were going to go this long without updating it? My point is that time in between updates doesn't seem to matter

You’re saying that because an almost two-year wait has occurred, Apple might just make it a three-year wait?

Also "incapable of fully running Monterey" is a bit of a stretch. We're talking about a few features that specifically lean into machine learning and don't affect overall use of the OS.

How else would you describe a machine that is incapable of running some features of an OS?

 

[nquinn]

If 16" models come out in 2022 that's a pretty big fail/gap from Apple. That would put them nearly 3 years between releases on a pro machine.

 

[jk73]

If 16" models come out in 2022 that's a pretty big fail/gap from Apple. That would put them nearly 3 years between releases on a pro machine.

And allow some of Apple’s cheaper machines to outperform the 16-inch for over 18 months.

 

[PeterLC]

I saw earlier today in another publication that Apple are expecting to ship (sell ?) 23 million MacBooks (Air & Pro, presumably) in 2021. It would seem that they are putting a lot of work into at least building 'a ton' of MacBooks this year. To have that many units just sitting around a warehouse when, presumably, their market research surely tells them that there are/will be a huge number of buyers eagerly waiting for their release, has me thinking that they will be releasing them for sale sooner, rather than later this year.

 

[Yebubbleman]

The lack of an update to the Intel 16" MBP makes it more likely that an ARM 16" gets introduced this year.

Certainly, that's what I'd think too. However, I'm reading more and more reports that only one MacBook Pro model will be ready this calendar year and that the 16" is going to experience supply delays that delay it until early 2022. Certainly, I could picture them announcing both at the same time and then saying that the 16" will be delayed, but I don't think it'll be available this calendar year. But I could easily be wrong.

Certainly, whether or not the 16" and the 14" share the same SoCs shouldn't have any real impact on their release timeframes.

It's a paragraph near the end of the recent report about the MBPs.

"For a redesigned, higher-end MacBook Air planned for as early as the end of the year, Apple is planning a direct successor to the M1 processor. That chip, codenamed Staten, will include the same number of computing cores as the M1 but run faster. It will also see the number of graphics cores increase from seven or eight to nine or 10. Apple is also planning an update to the low-end 13-inch MacBook Pro with that same chip."

Oh man! Thanks for this! Not only was I having difficulty finding it last night, but when I clicked the article just now, it was paywalled. So, much appreciated for quoting it as well!

16” in fall unless something has gone terribly wrong with engineering or supply from TSMC. Apple likes to sell hardware.

Apple is not immune to supply chain issues, though.

And it would be weird to launch a new form factor 14” design and let that be the flagship of the ASi lineup along with the current MacBook M1 13”.

They already launched a 2-port version of the 13" MacBook Pro with the M1 that already gives the 4-port Intel 13" and the 16" MacBook Pros a run for their money. It wouldn't be that crazy to delay longer. Though, I will agree that this wouldn't be ideal for Apple. I'm more of the mind that Apple will use two different SoCs for the different sizes of MBP rather than it merely being the same computer with two different choices of screen size. And more of the mind that will be the case than I am of the mind that there will be a staggered launch. My predicting a staggered launch is solely from what I've read in terms of rumors as to delays specific to the 16" model (which, of course are counter to what Apple would prefer to have happen).

I’m not saying you’re definitely wrong (as Apple does have a reputation for shipping when products are ready), but I’m saying it’s much more likely that we will see both the 14 and 16” revised MBPs launch this fall as most people expect.

I may very well be wrong! That being said, I think most people expected MacBook Pros at WWDC. I think also that supply chain issues are going to trump whatever expectations we have or don't have. Certainly, I don't see a reason for the launches to be staggered (or for the 16" MacBook Pro to be delayed) otherwise. The 2019 16" MacBook Pro IS due to be updated.

You’re saying that because an almost two-year wait has occurred, Apple might just make it a three-year wait?

I'm saying that Apple could weather a two and a half year gap in between releases, especially given that the 16" MacBook Pro is more geared for professionals (many of whom are not necessarily ready to move to a hardware platform where their apps won't run natively nor predictably). I'm not saying it would be an ideal scenario for Apple. Just that it wouldn't be that crazy of one.

Plus, I'm definitely of the mindset that at least one configurable 2019 16" MacBook Pro model will remain in the lineup until Intel and/or AMD EoLs the included processors as Apple did with the Iris Plus only model of 2015 MacBook Pro for three years after the Touch Bar models came out.

How else would you describe a machine that is incapable of running some features of an OS?

"It's capable of running macOS Monterey. There are some features that require an M1."

Saying that it's "incapable of fully running the OS" is a more melodramatic way of putting it and it makes it sound like the OS won't run all the way, when in actuality, it'll run just fine; it just won't support a handful of M1 specific features that leverage the neural engine. It'd be no different than marketing a Windows 10 PC that doesn't have an IR camera or a touch screen. You can fully run Windows 10; you just can't use facial recognition with Windows Hello or any Touch Screen specific features.

And allow some of Apple’s cheaper machines to outperform the 16-inch for over 18 months.

Considering that the target market audience for Macs like the 16" MacBook Pro, the 27" iMac, and the Mac Pro care more about their apps and plugins WORKING than they do about whether or not there are other machines that are faster (which might not run all of their software), I'd say that this is a non-issue. Obviously, Apple wants to have an Apple Silicon MacBook Pro model to replace all existing Intel MacBook Pro models. But supply constraints may force a wait. Again, given that these Macs are catered toward those that get work done and will have a longer time needed to get all of their apps and plug-ins updated for the new architecture, the wait won't hurt Apple as much as you seem to think it might.

 

[pshufd]

Considering that the target market audience for Macs like the 16" MacBook Pro, the 27" iMac, and the Mac Pro care more about their apps and plugins WORKING than they do about whether or not there are other machines that are faster (which might not run all of their software), I'd say that this is a non-issue. Obviously, Apple wants to have an Apple Silicon MacBook Pro model to replace all existing Intel MacBook Pro models. But supply constraints may force a wait. Again, given that these Macs are catered toward those that get work done and will have a longer time needed to get all of their apps and plug-ins updated for the new architecture, the wait won't hurt Apple as much as you seem to think it might.

My son's workplace has someone spending a little time looking at M1 and they are no where near ready. We're talking like M1 may be possible in three or four years if their platforms get ported. But it's apparently slow stuff in his industry. There are a lot of folks, apparently, that depend on macOS Intel and the ability to run Windows and Linux.

11th Gen Intel Mobile chips are pretty good and I'd love to see them but I just don't think Apple will put the effort in. 2021 has already been a huge year for hardware if you count the stuff that they wanted to release but had supply chain issues with.

 

[Yebubbleman]

My son's workplace has someone spending a little time looking at M1 and they are no where near ready. We're talking like M1 may be possible in three or four years if their platforms get ported. But it's apparently slow stuff in his industry. There are a lot of folks, apparently, that depend on macOS Intel and the ability to run Windows and Linux.

11th Gen Intel Mobile chips are pretty good and I'd love to see them but I just don't think Apple will put the effort in. 2021 has already been a huge year for hardware if you count the stuff that they wanted to release but had supply chain issues with.

I know other workplaces where they are similarly holding off before taking the plunge on Apple Silicon Macs, in general. Certainly, I can understand it. It's a big shift. Though, I'd imagine it's probably easier when all of your apps are native. If I ran an IT department for a company, I'd probably deploy MacBook Airs and/or 2-port 13" MacBook Pros to users that only used Microsoft Office, Zoom, the web, and other such already Apple-Silicon native applications and processes as that would be fine. But for the higher-end folks, I'd probably cling to Intel for as long as I could (at least until everything was confirmed to work right in Apple Silicon). Apple's annual OS releases already make mass adoption of new features very difficult. I think a lot of us tend to discount that.

 

[jk73]

Certainly, that's what I'd think too. However, I'm reading more and more reports that only one MacBook Pro model will be ready this calendar year and that the 16" is going to experience supply delays that delay it until early 2022.

Where have you seen these reports? I’ve seen the reports of supply issues delaying all of the new MBPs, but not any reports specific to the 16-inch.

 

[JMacHack]

If 16" models come out in 2022 that's a pretty big fail/gap from Apple. That would put them nearly 3 years between releases on a pro machine.

Yeah but those other years didn’t have COVID.

 

[robco74]

And allow some of Apple’s cheaper machines to outperform the 16-inch for over 18 months.

In certain benchmarks. There are still some areas where the 16" MBP still outperforms M1. Notably, the M1 GPU still can't touch the 5500M or 5600M in graphics performance. Plus, you can get more RAM.

I can live with the 16GB RAM limit, but I want something that can match or exceed the dGPU performance, and preferably a 14+" display.