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leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
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According to DigiTimes, TSMC N3E will be very expensive.
View attachment 2117022

That's a bit of a sensationalist claim though, don't you think? I mean, the graph shows that wafer price has increased by at least 60% every year since 2014 and 3nm is "only" a 25% increase. Sure, it's damn expensive. I don't see how this is going to have a very major impact on the chip prices. I mean, that's like $10-50 per chip, depending on die size and yields.
 

Sydde

macrumors 68030
Aug 17, 2009
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According to DigiTimes, TSMC N3E will be very expensive.
View attachment 2117022
My question is: is the wafer the same size? If the usable chip yields are close to the same, would they not get about a third+ more chips out of the same size wafer? It should be enough to justify the higher cost, if that is the case.

Also, N3 offers some extremely valuable characteristics that can greatly improve performance and efficiency over and above the die shrink, if implemented well.
 

EugW

macrumors G5
Jun 18, 2017
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My question is: is the wafer the same size?
It seems the article is talking about 12-inch / 300 mm wafers.

If the usable chip yields are close to the same, would they not get about a third+ more chips out of the same size wafer? It should be enough to justify the higher cost, if that is the case.
That's assuming the chips don't change and just shrink on a new process, which usually isn't the case. The chips get more and more transistors with every generation. Without die shrinks, this would be impossible. ie. The chips aren't shrinking in size, but instead are packing in more stuff. Sometimes they're getting bigger actually.

For example, A10X is 96 mm2, whereas A12Z and M1 are around 120 mm2, and M2 is likely somewhere north of 130 mm2.

A10X - 4.3 billion transistors, N10
A12Z - 10 billion transistors, N7
M1 - 16 billion transistors, N5
M2 - 20 billion transistors, N5P
 
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sam_dean

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According to DigiTimes, TSMC N3E will be very expensive.
View attachment 2117022
What the headlines omit is the fact that chips die size also have a smaller surface area as well. So assuming a modest transistor bump that occupies a smaller sized chip then the chip itself will cost roughly the same.

It only becomes somewhat more expensive when the die shrink occurs, the chip's die size stays the same size or larger and there are more transistors to take up said die size increase.

See how the 5nm M1 is cheaper than the 5nm M2 that has a larger die size because of more transistors.

The closest equivalent would be a standard sized shipping pallet.

One shipping pallet has a boxes of iMac G3 while the other shipping pallet has boxes of iMac M1.

The G3 is physically larger and takes up more space on the pallet so shipping cost is higher. So per unit cost is higher to ship.

The M1 is physically smaller and takes up les space on the pallet so shipping cost is lower. So per unit cost is lower to ship.
 
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theorist9

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May 28, 2015
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What the headlines omit is the fact that chips die size also have a smaller surface area as well. So assuming a modest transistor bump that occupies a smaller sized chip then the chip itself will cost roughly the same.

It only becomes somewhat more expensive when the die shrink occurs, the chip's die size stays the same size or larger and there are more transistors to take up said die size increase.

See how the 5nm M1 is cheaper than the 5nm M2 that has a larger die size because of more transistors.

The closest equivalent would be a standard sized shipping pallet.

One shipping pallet has a boxes of iMac G3 while the other shipping pallet has boxes of iMac M1.

The G3 is physically larger and takes up more space on the pallet so shipping cost is higher. So per unit cost is higher to ship.

The M1 is physically smaller and takes up les space on the pallet so shipping cost is lower. So per unit cost is lower to ship.
When the process size decreases, the transistor count typically does go up.

But let's suppose it didn't. I don't believe that would cause a chip made with a smaller process to be cheaper. Yes, you need less area of silicon, but the decrease in cost due to a smaller die is probably small compared to all the costs that increase when you go to a smaller process, including higher purity requirements for the silicon, more stringent dust filtration requirements for the facility, more expensive photolithography machines to do finer etching, and the need to fabricate finer metal patterns for the BEOL phase (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_end_of_line).
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
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When the process size decreases, the transistor count typically does go up.

But let's suppose it didn't.

If it didn't how can the premise be actually true or even remotely close to accurate? Have a "smaller process size" but cannot make a primary basic element smaller/denser. Then why is being labeled as a "smaller process" if can't make denser things.

Some types of elements are starting to break off.

Tb1SfC0z6FJvqH5A.jpg




If analog , memory , and logic all go flat then really don't have a "smaller process size" in the first place.

I don't believe that would cause a chip made with a smaller process to be cheaper. Yes, you need less area of silicon, but the decrease in cost due to a smaller die is probably small compared to all the costs that increase when you go to a smaller process, including higher purity requirements for the silicon, more stringent dust filtration requirements for the facility, more expensive photolithography machines to do finer etching, and the need to fabricate finer metal patterns for the BEOL phase (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back_end_of_line).

If go to smaller die size then yields go up. An individual 70mm^2 dies aren't going to suffer the same defect rates as a 700mm^2 . The customers of a fab will sell the individual chips to end users , but they are largely paying to process a whole wafer. If there are zero or 500 defects on that wafer the cost is the same to fab customer.

If the customer only gets 20 dies they they can charge $60 for out of a $20K wafer than that is bad. ( 1.2 - 20 = -18.8K ). If they get 400 dies at $60 ( $24,000 - 20,000 = +4K ) then it isn't. If the wafer cost 15K then would make more money ( 9K ), but if have more stuff to sell then have more money to pay for stuff like defective dies and/or higher wafer costs.

The other factor you are ingoring is the possible other chips that are being gotten rid of. If go from
CPU package + DDR RAM + GPU package + VRAM down to CPU-GPU package + unified RAM then have chunked other packages because getting closing to being a more complete 'system on a chip'.


TSMC N3 is going to be better at some elements of a broad spectrum SoC than for others. Chasing much larger than normal caches with N3 , N2 , N1.8 , etc may not be the best use of the increasingly expensive fab process. Splitting some of that off into another chip/die may work better. Very large monolithic dies that cover broad elements types are going to get harder to do more affordably.



P.S. TSMC N3 is likely going to be better at making medium to large dies smaller than at making relatively small dies ( e.g., sub 100mm^2) dies even smaller. The FinFlex ( three different FinFet implementation options on single die will help target the density where it is most effective and leave off where it isn't. But probably limited in how much that helps to keep the overall different elements shrinking when do not have lots of them. )
 
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theorist9

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If it didn't how can the premise be actually true or even remotely close to accurate? Have a "smaller process size" but cannot make a primary basic element smaller/denser. Then why is being labeled as a "smaller process" if can't make denser things.
It's well-established that chip manufacturers typically leverage smaller processes to put more transistors on a die, which is what I was saying. Indeed, that's the basis of Moore's Law. So it makes no sense to me that you're trying to argue against my post.
 

sam_dean

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Sep 9, 2022
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Semianalysis has written an article about TSMC N3.
Die shrinks are needed regardless of initial cost.

It improves in performance per watt, raw performance, waste heat and smaller form factors.

An 2023 A17 Bionic on 3nm process would have a higher raw performance, lower input power need & lower waste heat than a 2012 Core i7 on 22nm process.
 

Xiao_Xi

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Oct 27, 2021
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TSMC N3 yield is higher when producing Apple SoCs than chips from other companies.
Keeping in mind that TSMC tends to develop its leading-edge production technologies with Apple's — its biggest customer and its alpha client for leading-edge nodes — requirements in mind and the Cupertino, California-based high-tech giant tailors its designs for TSMC's capabilities, it is not surprising that initial yields could be as high as 80%. Meanwhile, a 60% yield rate may not be exactly high for a chip (or chips) set to power mass-market products.
 

deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
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TSMC N3 yield is higher when producing Apple SoCs than chips from other companies.


If Apple makes a 450mm^2 and the other company makes a 45mm^2 die then extremely highly likely chance that the other company will have better yields than Apple. The defect density isn't changing as much in these various estimates as the die size is.

I think there are some built-in presumptions in some of these "Apple gets better yields than others" in that they are comparing iPhone SoC dies 85-110mm^2 to much larger dies 200-300mm^2 .

This part of the article was a chuckle though.

"... In fact, for the same reason, we would refrain from comparing TSMC's N3 yields to Samsung Foundry's 3GAE yields in its early stages. ..."

And yet that is exactly what they did in the first paragraph of the article.


TSMC's N5 ramp was quite good.

Advanced%20Technology%20Leadership.mkv_snapshot_03.02_%5B2020.08.25_14.15.08%5D.jpg



Even if N3B's ramp looked like N7 around the -1Q point it wouldn't be that bad. Just not a 'extra juicy' profit margins generated. Samsung is having much more significant issues. But it is really 'defect density' that should be discussed here ; not 'yield'.

I think some of the supposed 'drama' here is that N3 has looked much more like N7 and it predecessors. Just because it isn't as fast as N5, some folks are spinning doom and gloom. The defect rate at -2Q point in time looked more 'painful'. Take the gap between N7 and N5 over -2Q to HVM and put N3 above N7 with those same gaps. N7 dropped a decent amount from HVM to +1Q. N3 need to take the N7's +1Q part of the curve to get to an acceptable rate. And N3 just won't get to N7+ or N6 kinds of levels.

N3E looking close to N5 would be more believable as it relatively closer to N5. ( which is why TSMC clawed back 1Q on getting to HVM).
 
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deconstruct60

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Isn't one the inverse of the other?

They are coupled, but it isn't a direct inverse.

If there are on average x.y defects per 10mm^2 then the bigger the die area the more likely you are to 'snag' one of those defects inside the a single die. bigger die larger probability. Higher probability is not a inverse.

Yes, if the base defect density goes down and hold the die size constant the yield goes up. but if increase or decrease the die size the yield changes also. Yield is a two dimension factor issue ( two contributing factors ).

How many working dies you have is percentage of those that didn't snag a defect. Being smaller means more chances of being missed ( or missing a single point of failure. Can build in some redunancies so single defect still doesn't lead to a failed chip. If need 8 cores build 10. ).

If the discussion is about how a particular fab process is good/problematic/bad/etc then should take the die size contributing factor off the table. Past relatively early in the design process, there typically isn't pragmatically wiggle room to substantially change the die size allocation to adjust for yields. So since can't control for that factor it really shouldn't be part of "good"/"bad" characterizations.

There is a corner case If the fab process is very mature and the defect density is at rock solid steady state even before the design process begins then might adjust die size (or just skip process all together if need 'large'. )
 

dgdosen

macrumors 68030
Dec 13, 2003
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It certainly looks like the next M chip suitable for a MacBook Air will be based off of TSMC's N3E node and be available in the 2H23. The big unknown is about the guts of the M2 Pro/Max.
 

MayaUser

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Nov 22, 2021
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It certainly looks like the next M chip suitable for a MacBook Air will be based off of TSMC's N3E node and be available in the 2H23. The big unknown is about the guts of the M2 Pro/Max.
That M3 3nm can be suitable even for a comeback 12" macbook
 

donth8

macrumors regular
Sep 25, 2015
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TSMC's FinFlex tech for N3 is really promising. With Apple struggling with IPC gains for the last 2-3 years, FinFlex could finally be a game changer. With the A16, Apple achieved 20% better efficiency on their performance cores. I really think and hope this was setup to have the A17 performance cores stay at the same power but reach a 25% speed improvement by using the 3-2 Fin. The efficiency cores are already much faster than the competition so I can see them use the 2-1 Fin for a 30% efficiency improvement. Finally they could either go with the 2-2 Fin or 3-2 Fin for the new GPU in the A17 and gain 17-25% in performance at the same power usage plus whatever IPC gains from the new GPU architecture.

To put these gains in perspective it could make the A17 the fastest single threaded cpu in the world:

A16 achieves a highest Geekbench Integer score of 1722 and Floating point of 2061 while using 5W
A17 with 25% improvement would put it at 2152 for Integer and 2576 for Floating point while using 5W
Fastest cpu right now is the Intel 13900KS with 2050 ish for Integer and 2400 ish for Floating point using 32W+

One can dream! This would truly be amazing if Apple decides to pull this off while using 6X less power than Intel.

Note: Using Crypto scores for Geekbench is worthless and it is recommended to only use Integer and FP results when comparing cpus. There was a thread months ago that explained why and Andrei formerly from Anandtech corroborated this.
 

sam_dean

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I am scheduled to get the 2023 iPhone 15 Pro Max. I am looking forward to the A17 Bionic chip that will be using the 3nm die shrink.

I find it amusing to know that my future iPhone would be more powerful than any desktop, laptop, tablet and watch I own today.

Heck, I wish Apple would build an iMac 27" around it as it would outperform my 2012 iMac 27" Core i7 22nm while only sipping 5-12W of power input.
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
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With the A16, Apple achieved 20% better efficiency on their performance cores. I really think and hope this was setup to have the A17 performance cores stay at the same power but reach a 25% speed improvement by using the 3-2 Fin.

Actually I hope that Apple can take advantage of smaller node to make their CPU both wider and capable of higher clock speed while marginally increasing the power consumption. The prosumer Apple Silicon series can get away with using 10W per core instead of 5W per core.


The efficiency cores are already much faster than the competition so I can see them use the 2-1 Fin for a 30% efficiency improvement.

Which competition you are talking about? They are faster than basic efficiency cores from ARM, yes, but slower than ARM's or Intel's mid cores.
 

donth8

macrumors regular
Sep 25, 2015
106
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Which competition you are talking about? They are faster than basic efficiency cores from ARM, yes, but slower than ARM's or Intel's mid cores.
The efficiency cores from ARM is what I am talking about. They quoted 50% faster during the A16 presentation if I am not mistaken.
 

leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
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The efficiency cores from ARM is what I am talking about. They quoted 50% faster during the A16 presentation if I am not mistaken.

Ah yes, that's correct. I just looked at Anandtech benchmarks and the A15 E-cores already perform very similarly to A78 mid-cores while using less than half power. Or half the performance of Intel's E-cores at 1/20 power usage, which is absolutely insane.
 

Xiao_Xi

macrumors 68000
Oct 27, 2021
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If the N3-based M3 family brings a big performance jump, how would Apple design the M3 so that the MBA M3 doesn't get too close to the MBP M2 Pro/Max? Would Apple keep new accelerators for the M3 Pro/Max?
 

MayaUser

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Nov 22, 2021
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The prosumer Apple Silicon series can get away with using 10W per core instead of 5W per core.
are we sure doubling down is the way to go? that would make the 14" Mbp fit just for the M3 Pro only and not M3 Max or i miss-understood you?
 
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