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Alrescha

macrumors 68020
Jan 1, 2008
2,156
317
I expect 40-60 percent fall from current price.

Apple's cash and equivalents amount to almost $40/share. You are suggesting that the share price will fall to that, which would imply that the entire company will have no value whatsoever. A bit pessimistic, methinks.

A.
 

MrAverigeUser

macrumors 6502a
May 20, 2015
895
397
europe
Apple's cash and equivalents amount to almost $40/share. You are suggesting that the share price will fall to that, which would imply that the entire company will have no value whatsoever. A bit pessimistic, methinks.

A.

YES, the situation is comfortable by now.
But they pay already 2,08 USD/Share cash each year. soon profits will melt down. And they will have to pay 8 Billion USD taxes in Europe they refused to pay before.. and…. and…. but in the stock market is looking at nothing but the FUTURE… this is not as shiny...
 

Marshall73

macrumors 68030
Apr 20, 2015
2,712
2,837
until late 2013 I spent between 15.000 - 20.000 per year on Apple Products for me and the company
now it is Zero --- because there are better Products out there (Server, PC's, Laptops-Surface, Phones)
may be I am not alone, we will wait and see

We have seen the trend going the opposite direction, macs instead of Windows desktops and laptops, iPhones instead of android or windows mobile. £95k of macs and accessories in FY 2014-15 between 6 clients and we just got an order for a suite of macs today for deployment in Mid Feb. We still do mostly PC's but the demand for Macs have tripled last year alone. And surface pro sales were up too, 12 units last year from 3 the year before.

We provide services and solutions to multiple clients over the uk hardware supply isn't a core part of our business and we tend not to push Apple as I'm the only Apple techie on the team which means I'm normally on the phone supporting our other techs when they are deploying Apple kit, /sigh.
 

newlifer

macrumors member
Jun 7, 2014
87
26
Apple's cash and equivalents amount to almost $40/share. You are suggesting that the share price will fall to that, which would imply that the entire company will have no value whatsoever. A bit pessimistic, methinks.

A.

staying at current levels means that they invent killer products as powerful as
1. the iPhone
2. the iPad
3. macbook pro
4. imac
all these within 3-4 years. i don't mean upgrading but inventing. without steve. this is why its impossible to stay there forever.. cash will not be the same forever..
 

Alrescha

macrumors 68020
Jan 1, 2008
2,156
317
staying at current levels means that they invent killer products as powerful as

I do not accept your premise*. Apple's stock is already ridiculously cheap by almost any measure. One might say that this inevitable plateau has already been accounted for in the price - certainly AAPL never rose to the fantastic P/E ratio held by Amazon, even though Apple broke records quarter after quarter after quarter.

A.

* Apple has never invented at the rate you seem to require. There were three years just between the iPhone and the iPad. To say they have to invent new things at 4X that rate just to stay where they are is unreasonable.
 
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newlifer

macrumors member
Jun 7, 2014
87
26
I do not accept your premise*. Apple's stock is already ridiculously cheap by almost any measure. One might say that this inevitable plateau has already been accounted for in the price - certainly AAPL never rose to the fantastic P/E ratio held by Amazon, even though Apple broke records quarter after quarter after quarter.

A.

* Apple has never invented at the rate you seem to require. There were three years just between the iPhone and the iPad. To say they have to invent new things at 4X that rate just to stay where they are is unreasonable.

I would have invested if i was sure that the watch, the tv and the car will be so mainstream that they will kill everything around them but that is not the case my friend. i'm not saying that apple will die, they are still the best but forget the growth and earnings the invention of the iPhone had
 
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MICHAELSD

macrumors 603
Jul 13, 2008
5,481
3,493
NJ
I expect 40-60 percent fall from current price. apple has reached its peak and without a killer new product the only way is down.. 6s plus is as excellent as was the original mac which led to steve's departure.. the market is over saturated, there's no innovation and there will be a global slowdown. I don't believe in the car.. be careful with your money

lol.

With the amount of cash and brand recognition Apple has they're not going anywhere.

They're not a BlackBerry or a GoPro one-trick-pony.
 

MrAverigeUser

macrumors 6502a
May 20, 2015
895
397
europe
The following is well confirming what I posted some days ago:


http://www.neowin.net/news/idc-huawei-and-lenovo-were-biggest-winners-in-2015-smartphone-shipments


In Fact, apple´s market share is going down, Huawei and other competitors are winners, apple lost.


Regarding the market to show clear signs of beginning saturisation apple will have to face hard times in the future..
Competitors are not just attacking the low-level and budget-part of the market, they have already penetrated ALL segments of the market, more and more also the top-segment - and are more innovative than apple is.

The margins of apple products will fall under pressure of competitors with better Price/benefit relations and growing population of the competitors well-satisfied customers.

On top, windowsPhone has some features that come from "old" Nokia times and MSFT seemingly did care MORE about customers daily-life needs and adapted less spectacular, but more effective their OS and app at customers needs…

so - apple doesn´t have superior hardware NOR better OS or apps.
 
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Zirel

Suspended
Jul 24, 2015
2,196
3,008
The following is well confirming what I posted some days ago:


http://www.neowin.net/news/idc-huawei-and-lenovo-were-biggest-winners-in-2015-smartphone-shipments


In Fact, apple´s market share is going down, Huawei and other competitors are winners, apple lost.

That's ridiculous!

Who cares about how many phones those companies sold?

Can they sell a $649+ phone?

The answer is no. Never!

The iPhone is out of budget of the vast majority of people (Eastern Europe, BRICs), and some people just buy one iPhone each 2 to 4 years, because they really last.

If Apple would sell $100 phones, they would raise their marketshare, but a $100 is not even close to being in the same league as any iPhone Apple sells, yet, IDC still thinks otherwise!

But whatever!

so - apple doesn´t have superior hardware NOR better OS or apps.

Really makes sense that conclusion! /s
 

MrAverigeUser

macrumors 6502a
May 20, 2015
895
397
europe
That's ridiculous!

Who cares about how many phones those companies sold?

Can they sell a $649+ phone?

The answer is no. Never!

The iPhone is out of budget of the vast majority of people (Eastern Europe, BRICs), and some people just buy one iPhone each 2 to 4 years, because they really last.

If Apple would sell $100 phones, they would raise their marketshare, but a $100 is not even close to being in the same league as any iPhone Apple sells, yet, IDC still thinks otherwise!

But whatever!



Really makes sense that conclusion! /s


You didn´t get the point.
read again without your "Apple spectacles" in full rose color…

And YES: Samsung Galaxy, Galaxy Note, Galaxy Edge, google, Sony Xperia, Competitors sell their top-smartphones at nearly same level as do some others. Being less expensive is being more competitive. perhaps some day you will understand, evidently not at the moment yet...

look at the article I linked above in my posting and have a DEEP REALISTIC look into the just released quarterly report.
Even Tim Cook is more realistic as you are - Tim talked already about the problem - not in a whole, but he is beginning to prepare the shareholders for harder times. step by step...

as for being "ridiculous" - well, I think it is not me….

apologistic rantings like yours are just boring.
 
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radus

macrumors 6502a
Jan 12, 2009
720
447
this "iPhone-Company" does not sell products people want or await - thats why is the stock down;
competitive products even phones are on paar (Samsung, Sony) or better (Skylake Laptops Dell, HP, ...Asus);
and they lost the sympathy of their former best customers ...
 
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MrAverigeUser

macrumors 6502a
May 20, 2015
895
397
europe
Take a deeper look for the Huawei MateS…

It is not only Samsung that is in front of apple, even this chinese enterprise has some useful feature (up to waterproof nano-coating, force-touch, more ergonomic button on the backside - just where your digital finger is - with innovative function and so on).
The MateS is not just a "thinner" Smartphone, it shows REAL innovation and some clever features (for those who need them).
My two iP5 with its perfect form factor are enough for me - but the MateS is now a new added challenge of the iPhone-line… it´s getting harder for apple.
 

Zirel

Suspended
Jul 24, 2015
2,196
3,008
You didn´t get the point.
read again without your "Apple spectacles" in full rose color…

And YES: Samsung Galaxy, Galaxy Note, Galaxy Edge, google, Sony Xperia, Competitors sell their top-smartphones at nearly same level as do some others. Being less expensive is being more competitive. perhaps some day you will understand, evidently not at the moment yet…

Truth is, nobody buys that crap.

Look at their sales NUMBERS and divide by their revenue!

They don't even dare to report their actual numbers and revenue, to not let out the truth that they don't sell anything besides cheap sub $200 and sub $100 devices.

look at the article I linked above in my posting and have a DEEP REALISTIC look into the just released quarterly report.
Even Tim Cook is more realistic as you are - Tim talked already about the problem - not in a whole, but he is beginning to prepare the shareholders for harder times. step by step...

as for being "ridiculous" - well, I think it is not me….

apologistic rantings like yours are just boring.

There were lots of migrants with the iPhone 6, now that everybody has an iPhone 6, it's normal that Apple's growth will decline for a year, and then keep growing.

Doesn't mean that Apple products are bad, or that the competition is any better.

Look at the main competitor: Samsung --> Samsung warns on profits as components unit faces waning …

Sorry, but if it's bad for Apple, then for everyone else, it's safe to say that's hell for anyone else.

Yes, people will sooner or later coast, and they'll coast with the reliable, no-nonsense and integral Apple.

Have you looked at Apple "Services" segment of their press release? 6 billion dollars in revenue. And a segment that can only grow!
 

MrAverigeUser

macrumors 6502a
May 20, 2015
895
397
europe
Sales numbers have (nearly) nothing to do with quality.

Sales numbers and market share are in first place just indicating performance of financial power/marketing performance/TECHNICAL FASHION TRENDS/...

better think twice before you disagree - because that would mean you are claiming Windows was always superior to OSX…. :Dand IBM´s OS/2 (which was definitely not the case) and Porsche always produced crappy cars…. Leica optics would be the worst around the world, MacDonalds far better than Guide Michelin´s *** rated restaurants, ghetto blaster better than professional Studio Audio Equipment, …… and smartphone cameras better than DSLRs...
 
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Zirel

Suspended
Jul 24, 2015
2,196
3,008
Sales numbers have (nearly) nothing to do with quality.

Sales numbers and market share are in first place just indicating performance of financial power/marketing performance/TECHNICAL FASHION TRENDS/...

better think twice before you disagree - because that would mean you are claiming Windows was always superior to OSX…. :Dand IBM´s OS/2 (which was definitely not the case) and Porsche always produced crappy cars…. Leica optics would be the worst around the world, MacDonalds far better than Guide Michelin´s *** rated restaurants, ghetto blaster better than professional Studio Audio Equipment, …… and smartphone cameras better than DSLRs...

Windows wasn't worse than MacOS and MacOS wasn't better.

Or at least, the things that Mac did better weren't enough to offset the poor hardware configurations (and price/quality available) and poor software developer support.

That means being bad.

I'm not saying that high sales = good, I'm saying that selling more than your competitors means that you are better. And a $200 device is not competing with a $800 device. Just like nobody says "I'm either coming home with a Renault Clio or a BMW 5 series".
 

C DM

macrumors Sandy Bridge
Oct 17, 2011
51,392
19,461
this "iPhone-Company" does not sell products people want or await - thats why is the stock down;
competitive products even phones are on paar (Samsung, Sony) or better (Skylake Laptops Dell, HP, ...Asus);
and they lost the sympathy of their former best customers ...
Is that why they sold so much that they had a record quarter?
 

MrAverigeUser

macrumors 6502a
May 20, 2015
895
397
europe
I'm not saying that high sales = good, I'm saying that selling more than your competitors means that you are better.

Better in what sense?
Shurely better in profits, because better in marketing, better in fulfilling tech-fashion and tech-trends.

But this is in no way obligatorily connected with
- more quality/usability
- more Customer-care
- R&D for better fulfilling of customers needs in real life and daily practical use.
- leading technology
- more reliability of hardware and OS

For example:In the old days 3 types of Videosystems were competing:

technically the best: Video2000 (grundig) , second Beta (Sony) and the worst of three: VHS (Panasonic).
as we all know, VHS won. The history is full of similar examples…
It is all about marketing, financial & market power and strategic play, NOT about best technology or best-for-customers needs. sadly for us customers...

;)
 

C DM

macrumors Sandy Bridge
Oct 17, 2011
51,392
19,461
it is the same attitude they showed at the beginning of the 90'th -- the stock does not lie
The stock often goes down after announcements, nothing new there. On top of that pretty much the whole market is down this year. Seems like there isn't really much to base anything in particular on.
 
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MrAverigeUser

macrumors 6502a
May 20, 2015
895
397
europe
The stock often goes down after announcements, nothing new there. On top of that pretty much the whole market is down this year. Seems like there isn't really much to base anything in particular on.


Stock does always react on announcements - if announcements let investors know or at least feel that there will be a future profit not yet priced-in the shares - then, they will go up.
If the announcements do not or are more or less disappointing or will result in less profits than priced-in, stock-prices will fall.
It is that simple.

I agree that there is a sort of saturation of the market concerning all competitors.
BUT: at the same time the competitors are not just arrived on apple´s level, they are going to surpass it.
Started with Samsung (they are announcing a really great Galaxy7) , now Huawei with its MateS (look for detailed infos! It´s worth it!) and other competitors are not bad either… don´t forget: with the iP6/6+ apple silently copied already its competitor Samsung´s Phablets...

Impossible for overpriced iPhones to hold their marketshare (other than by lower prices).

apple now is behind with nearly everything: Smartphones, skylake-notebooks, high-performant desktops, even TB3, 5k-Screens, and so on. They are behind most competitors in the future Streaming-market. In consequence, their profits from "classic" selling mp3-songs in their platform will melt down either. Amazon is world leader seller concerning ebooks and videos and will enter extremely aggressive in the Internet-TV-market and streaming as well.

And what is apple doing? They solder and glue their products to prevent their customers to upgrade - how stupid this is!

NO, they are losing on every battlefield at the moment. And there is no cavalry to save their lives - once their ammunition (gigantic financial reserves) have been consumed. it´s a little bit like the NOKIA-story… or HP, or IBM, or GM, … and even in apple´s own history it is a "déjà-vu"… now there is no Steve Jobs any more to save them with the right visions…

so: NO. it is not by accident that apple shares will go down step by step…

but have a look at Huawei´s stock: it´s shooting-up since 1-2 years..and does NOT react at all on the "market-situation"...
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/002502:CH
[doublepost=1454521980][/doublepost]
I just bought 10000 shares :)

Stock up while it's low.


never try to catch a falling knife...
 
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