8GB to 16GB = $180 (plus tax) on a $1500 machine.. That's not a tiny fraction that's about 13% of the entire cost of the computer just for RAM that the OP will probably never need.
No doubt if $$$ are not a consideration then spend away.. Heck the same can be argued about SSD, processor ect... I don't see spending an additional $13% for piece of mind that may never come as being financially responsible..
When do you anticipate that 8GB of RAM will be obsolete????
For some people, 8 GB is already insufficient. However, for basic usage, it is usually enough.... now. The rather telling thing though is that the BASE RAM for ALL of Apple's laptops is 8 GB now. That alone has to tell you something, which is that 4 GB simply isn't enough. 8 GB is fine for most people today though with light to moderate usage.
In a few years, most people still won't need 16 GB to avoid the pageouts, but the argument isn't that we will need 16 GB. The argument is that we will need more than 8 GB. Even today, if you have two users on a computer, 8 GB is limiting because the second user with minimal apps loaded will still use up about 2 GB RAM. With only a single user, I currently use about 4-6 RAM usually with moderate usage but sometimes it's a little bit more. Do you really think in 5 years, having another 2 GB RAM will be enough to avoid page outs?
To put it another way, I think for most people, several years from now, 12 GB will be enough, but the thing is you can't buy 12 GB, so 16 it is.
BTW, I'd say in the time I've owned my MacBook Pro, the required RAM almost tripled. It shipped with 2 GB but that was just adequate. 3 GB would have been better. So, I upgraded to 4 GB which was OK for a while, but is no longer OK. Now it needs 8 GB. So from 3 to 8 GB after 8 years. Using that as a guide, perhaps we can say that currently a user needs 6-8 GB. So in 5 years, expect a doubling, to 12 to 16 GB. And even if it isn't, and it's just an increase by 50%, that's 9 to 12 GB. So either way, that's still more than 8 GB. Again, 12 GB would have likely been fine, but you can't buy 12 so we buy 16.