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Hexley

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Jun 10, 2009
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They could really rub salt into the rest of the industry by making an M1X along with lowering the price of the 16.
If I was Apple. Maybe.

Rubbing of the salt would be having the performance of a RTX 30-Series GPU and Zen 3-based Threadripper 3900-Series on a Macbook Pro 16" with a 96W charger.

My apologies if my GPU and CPU terminology is mangled.
 

Hexley

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The #1 reason I don't see this happening is because there would be a SLEW of returns from previous 15-16" owners who settled for 13" M1 machines to get on the ground floor. I would be one of those returns.
What's the return period? 30 days? 90 days? If 90 days that's like 1 quarter from November.
 

magbarn

macrumors 68040
Oct 25, 2008
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If I was Apple. Maybe.

Rubbing of the salt would be having the performance of a RTX 30-Series GPU and Zen 3-based Threadripper 3900-Series on a Macbook Pro 16" with a 96W charger.

My apologies if my GPU and CPU terminology is mangled.
I have a smoking fast MBA M1 that is replacing a loaded 2020 i7 MBA that I'm taking a huge hit on resale but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I can see the CPU getting close to thread ripper, but claiming the M1x (or whatever it's called) with a likely 30-40 watt Apple dGPU isn't going to come close to 3070/3080 performance anytime soon. Intel's chips were horrible due to x86 shackles forcing significant amounts of die wasted supporting archaic x86 architecture coupled with a hoary 14nm++++ process, but you don't have that in the GPU space which is already highly optimized. In GPU compute Apple could make some serious gains but in gaming not so much.
 

4sallypat

macrumors 601
Sep 16, 2016
4,034
3,782
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All I would need is 2x the GPU of the M1. But I realize that most MBP 16 users need a lot more than that. Apple could seriously do whatever they want to on the GPU side. It's like they have too many good options right now. I'd love a MacBook Air with 4 performance cores and 12 efficiency cores with 30 hour battery life.
Yes, as a 16" MBP owner, the graphics would have be much better than the entry level M1.
If the M1 is any indication of it's ability to overtake Intel designed Macs, the next gen will be even more awesome.

I'd just be happy with a 16" glass that does not run so hot that my lap burns and battery life shortened.....
 
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Hexley

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I have a smoking fast MBA M1 that is replacing a loaded 2020 i7 MBA that I'm taking a huge hit on resale but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. I can see the CPU getting close to thread ripper, but claiming the M1x (or whatever it's called) with a likely 30-40 watt Apple dGPU isn't going to come close to 3070/3080 performance anytime soon. Intel's chips were horrible due to x86 shackles forcing significant amounts of die wasted supporting archaic x86 architecture coupled with a hoary 14nm++++ process, but you don't have that in the GPU space which is already highly optimized. In GPU compute Apple could make some serious gains but in gaming not so much.
You may be right with a high-end laptop part but high-end iMac part.... I would not be surprised if it happens.

Remember, the M1 with less than 15W TDP has the equivalent GPU of a GeForce 1050 Ti desktop part.
 

UltimateSyn

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Mar 3, 2008
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What's the return period? 30 days? 90 days? If 90 days that's like 1 quarter from November.
Return period (at least in U.S.) is now extended for the holidays. Buyers here have until 1/8 to return their M1 Macs, so rest assured no new ones will be releasing during that time period.
 
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Hexley

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Return period (at least in U.S.) is now extended for the holidays. Buyers here have until 1/8 to return their M1 Macs, so rest assured no new ones will be releasing during that time period.
I am 100% certain that the following Macs will be updated with Apple Silicon chips on a Tuesday between January-April 2021.
  • MBP 16"
  • MBP 13" with four ports
  • Mac mini with four ports
  • iMac 21.5" & 27"
~80% certain it will be on March, ~19% certain it will be either January or April and less than 1% certain it will be a February.

The last Mac event was held on a Tuesday, 10 November 2020. A Mac event on March 2021 would make it ~4 months apart.

Macs are historically labeled on what part of the calendar it gets released whether it be "early", "mid" or late".

Example:
  • Early 2008 MBP 15"
  • Mid-2010 MBP 13"
  • Late 2019 MBP 16"
 
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MFDoom

macrumors member
Mar 30, 2009
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Return period (at least in U.S.) is now extended for the holidays. Buyers here have until 1/8 to return their M1 Macs, so rest assured no new ones will be releasing during that time period.
My best guess is mid to late 2021. They definitely won't release during the holiday return period.
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,146
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You may be right with a high-end laptop part but high-end iMac part.... I would not be surprised if it happens.

Remember, the M1 with less than 15W TDP has the equivalent GPU of a GeForce 1050 Ti desktop part.

And the GeForce GTX 1050 Ti is a 75 Watt Part (I'm running one on this desktop right now). And it's built on a 14 nm process. I guess my system is real synergy: 14 nm Intel 10700 and 14 nm GPU. I should really get something newer. Unfortunately I don't think that there are newer video cards that are high entry level/low midrange.
 

UltimateSyn

macrumors 601
Mar 3, 2008
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My best guess is mid to late 2021. They definitely won't release during the holiday return period.
Yeah, I think May is probably the earliest we can expect a new 16".. Somewhere between May and September. September seems like a looooooong time to let their flagship notebook sit with comparatively crappy PPW and battery life, though. I think they'll try to be aggressive with the timeline and shoot for May. And that would put the X chip in the middle of the cycle between M1 and M2 (assuming year-long cycles like the A-Series chips).

Or maybe they do a simple M1X internals update in February-March, followed by a redesign in late 2021. Christ, I don't know.
 
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magbarn

macrumors 68040
Oct 25, 2008
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And the GeForce GTX 1050 Ti is a 75 Watt Part (I'm running one on this desktop right now). And it's built on a 14 nm process. I guess my system is real synergy: 14 nm Intel 10700 and 14 nm GPU. I should really get something newer. Unfortunately I don't think that there are newer video cards that are high entry level/low midrange.
Sadly though Nvidia's Samsung process is quite power hungry even compared to their previous 20XX TSMC predecessors. Not sure if it's Nvidia's new CUDA core design or Samsung's inefficiencies. As long as the top end cards sell out immediately to bots/ebay, low-mid range new gen GPUs aren't coming out soon.
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,146
14,572
New Hampshire
Sadly though Nvidia's Samsung process is quite power hungry even compared to their previous 20XX TSMC predecessors. Not sure if it's Nvidia's new CUDA core design or Samsung's inefficiencies. As long as the top end cards sell out immediately to bots/ebay, low-mid range new gen GPUs aren't coming out soon.

I was thinking of getting an 8600. It's on 7 nm process and it looks like it would meet my needs (3x4k). It would be overkill (the GTX 1050 Ti is overkill as it is) but the power draw would drop quite a bit. Of course Apple could just release an M1X product and I could just replace this whole workstation.
 

theluggage

macrumors G3
Jul 29, 2011
8,011
8,444
Any chance there will be a 16 inch without discrete GPU ?

I wouldn't count on anything - up to and including the Mac Pro - having a fully discrete GPU under Apple Silicon. Maybe the "M1X" will have the GPU on-package (i.e. like the RAM on M1) if it is too big to fit on-die, but the tight GPU/CPU/RAM on the M1 seems to be a large part of its success. My guess (happy to be proved wrong) is that the top-end ASi Macs will have multiple "M1X" chips, each with their own RAM and GPU, rather than Apple trying to make a 28+-core Xeon-W-killer just for the Mac Pro.

...on a more modest scale, I don't see what's not to like about a 16" version of the M1 13" Pro: we're all arguing about whether the M1 it is really up to real-life 8K video editing, but it's certainly going to eat your DTP, web design, spreadsheets and 90% of developer workflows for breakfast - all things for which it would sometimes be nice to have a bigger screen.
 

pshufd

macrumors G4
Oct 24, 2013
10,146
14,572
New Hampshire
I wouldn't count on anything - up to and including the Mac Pro - having a fully discrete GPU under Apple Silicon. Maybe the "M1X" will have the GPU on-package (i.e. like the RAM on M1) if it is too big to fit on-die, but the tight GPU/CPU/RAM on the M1 seems to be a large part of its success. My guess (happy to be proved wrong) is that the top-end ASi Macs will have multiple "M1X" chips, each with their own RAM and GPU, rather than Apple trying to make a 28+-core Xeon-W-killer just for the Mac Pro.

...on a more modest scale, I don't see what's not to like about a 16" version of the M1 13" Pro: we're all arguing about whether the M1 it is really up to real-life 8K video editing, but it's certainly going to eat your DTP, web design, spreadsheets and 90% of developer workflows for breakfast - all things for which it would sometimes be nice to have a bigger screen.

Hard to imagine M1X MCMs. Compute power would be off the charts.
 

DHagan4755

macrumors 68020
Jul 18, 2002
2,264
6,146
Massachusetts
The next few weeks could very well see an updated 16" MBP via press release but with intel processors.
Extremely doubtful.

Here's what Mark Gurman wrote a week before the M1 Mac "One More Thing" event...
(the language is key here & I added bold and italics for emphasis)
Apple and overseas suppliers are ramping up production of three Mac laptops with Apple processors: new 13-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros and a new 13-inch MacBook Air, according to people familiar with the matter. Foxconn, known also as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., is assembling the two smaller laptops, while Quanta Computer Inc. is building the larger MacBook Pro. The smaller models are further ahead in production and at least those two laptops will be shown at next week’s event. Beyond the processor switch, the devices won’t have significant design changes.
Mark clearly writes 3 Mac laptops with Apple silicon & singles out one of the 3 as the 16" MBP.

We later learned "further ahead in production" meant "available next Tuesday." The 13s were pretty much ready to go. So then how further behind is the 16" MBP? Seems like it's well on its way if Gurman's reporting on it. He's got a solid track record.

"Beyond the processor switch" reaffirms the next 16" MBP is getting Apple silicon of some kind.

 
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Pancrecio

macrumors newbie
Nov 17, 2020
11
9
Right now the entire computer industry is reeling in their dropped jaws, and lets face it, the ASi 13" Pro is overkill for the majority of consumers. Do they really need a flashy event to launch the 16" ?

Hell, I'd start tooting Apple's horn if they release the 16" soon...
 
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Yebubbleman

macrumors 603
May 20, 2010
6,024
2,616
Los Angeles, CA
Osborne Effect will impact all Intel Macs.

Do you even know what the Osborne effect is or how it even works?

To be able to meet sales targets for 2021 Apple must transition all their Intel Macs to Apple Silicon Mac by WWDC 2021.

All arguments to sell Intel Macs beyond June 2021 does not hold water unless it's a token unit for backward compatibility like the last Mac with SuperDrive that was introduced in June 2012 and discontinued in October 2016.

Why would anyone buy an Intel Mac now or even 2021 much less 2022?

Because they need the stability and compatibility. Not every Mac user needs bleeding edge.

M1's faster than any Mac at a fraction of the cost.

Apple Silicon Macbook Pro 16" will be out between January-April 2021 when higher-end chips becomes available designed for all remaining Macs excluding iMac Pro and Mac Pro.

Intel Macbook Pro 16" is the most out of date notebook Apple sells. It was launched November 13, 2019.

If they want to make a quick sale is to refresh directly Apple Silicon for an early 2021 Mac release.

WWDC 2021 will be the ideal time to launch the Apple Silicon iMac Pro and Mac Pro.

This is possible through the Tim Cook doctrine where Apple increases R&D spending and buys and owns primary technology up front.
Please don't have an aneurism when the transition isn't completed by WWDC 2021. My inner-Jewish mother will worry about you.
 
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Hexley

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Do you even know what the Osborne effect is or how it even works?



Because they need the stability and compatibility. Not every Mac user needs bleeding edge.


Please don't have an aneurism when the transition isn't completed by WWDC 2021. My inner-Jewish mother will worry about you.
Let us agree to talk this over by late March or WWDC 2021. :)
 

trailmonkey

macrumors regular
Feb 22, 2019
153
64
I expect Apple to ride this M1 wave for a few months and take all the acclaim they can. They'll release the Mx once things have quietened down and people start expecting the next release, ie next spring at the earliest.
 

Hexley

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Jun 10, 2009
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I expect Apple to ride this M1 wave for a few months and take all the acclaim they can. They'll release the Mx once things have quietened down and people start expecting the next release, ie next spring at the earliest.
"M1X" for iMac, 16" and 13" Macbook Pro 4 port and 4 port Mac mini on a Tuesday around March
 
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