There are basically five things that will influence the decision for me, in no particular order.
1. Display tech. It's all but confirmed that the Pro will get OLED, but on the off chance that the 13-inch Air gets MicroLED then that would be a big deal.
2. Processor. This isn't actually a massive deal since I'd be very happy with an M2, but AFAIK (correct me if I'm wrong) Apple have never released a device with a last generation M chip. I'd be curious to see if they release the Air with an M3, maybe with watered down power for better battery life. I can dream.
3. Weight. I'm actually a proponent of a thinner Pro, because if they can cut some weight from it, and also from the magic keyboard as a result, then it would put a lot less strain on my shoulders when I'm carrying it in a backpack, for example. Only thing is that it doesn't really make sense for them to do this for the Pro and not the Air. I mean, the whole point of the 'Air' label is that it's supposed to be lighter. Let's see if Apple addresses this.
4. Front-facing camera placement. This is a huge deal for me since I take a lot of Teams calls, and I hate it when my eyes are off-centre. Even got called out for it in a job interview once. Seems the Pro will be getting the landscape camera, but renders of the Air showed that it wouldn't. If that holds true, it would turn me off the Air big-time.
5. Price. I'm expecting the Pro to be about £350/$400 more expensive than the Air, which if the Air falls short in the above criteria would probably be worth it. The new magic keyboard for the Pro may be more pricey than whatever the Air ends up having, that will make a difference too.
Revisiting these criteria now that the new iPads have been announced.
1. Display tech. Basically what I was expecting, and we can confirm that the Air won't get MiniLED, so the upgrade to OLED will be a huge deal for consumption, and I'm willing to pay a big premium for it. YouTube and Netflix would look amazing on a 13-inch Pro. I'm conscious that after a while I won't pay attention to the difference though.
2. Processor. Kinda goes without saying, but the difference between the Pro and Air is a lot more that people were expecting. Hell, I was expecting both to have the M3. But how much that matters to me is still undefined. Both are clearly very powerful, and I honestly could give less of a toss about the AI capabilities, but futureproofing is a big deal for me. I plan on keeping whatever I buy for at least four or five years, and I don't want to find with iPad OS 20 or something that there will be some killer feature that's not available for M2 devices.
3. Weight. Actually not too fussed. I was pleasantly surprised that both the Pro and the Air are getting lighter, but the Pro is only about 6% lighter than the Air, so I doubt it would make all that much difference. I'm still interested to know more about the new keyboard though, specifically how much lighter it is and how ergonomic it is relative to the old one.
4. Front-facing camera placement. Moot point, given that both the Air and the Pro will have the landscape camera.
5. Price. This is the kicker. The Pro looks like a great device, and we didn't get that extortionate price bump that was speculated, but the difference between a Pro and an Air, both 13-inches, base storage and with a keyboard, is still a pretty hefty £550, and I'm finding it difficult to justify that bump in price. If we're being generous I'd maybe pay an extra £350 for OLED and ProMotion, £150 for the increased processing power, and £50 for the other bells and whistles (Face ID, double the storage, new keyboard, etc.) but I'm not sure if I'm being completely rational there.
TLDR: I'm torn.
