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I guess my main reason for now waiting for the spring is that we’re talking about about a 2020 model with the M1 mini - if a new M2 model does come out in 2023 then it will presumably be supported by Apple for at least a couple more years than the M1; I’m sure in hardware terms both could last me for 7+ years, but I’d rather have access to security updates for longer, that’s all.
 
I guess my main reason for now waiting for the spring is that we’re talking about about a 2020 model with the M1 mini - if a new M2 model does come out in 2023 then it will presumably be supported by Apple for at least a couple more years than the M1; I’m sure in hardware terms both could last me for 7+ years, but I’d rather have access to security updates for longer, that’s all.
Yeah it mostly comes down to price vs longevity IMO. Most (but not all) people looking to get the M2 Mac mini would probably be satisfied with the M1 Mac mini in terms of performance and overall feature set, so that leaves cost and how long it will be supported.

You can get the M1 fairly cheap on the used market sometimes now, since it is old enough and the Pro machines are out, so some have moved on. Plus, outside the US, there is a good chance the 2023 M2 Mac mini will be priced higher than the M1 Mac mini at every tier.

In my case I got a used M1 Mac mini for exactly 1/3rd off retail, so that was enough for me to make the jump to M1 in 2022 instead of waiting for M2.
 
I guess my main reason for now waiting for the spring is that we’re talking about about a 2020 model with the M1 mini - if a new M2 model does come out in 2023 then it will presumably be supported by Apple for at least a couple more years than the M1; I’m sure in hardware terms both could last me for 7+ years, but I’d rather have access to security updates for longer, that’s all.

That logic doesn't follow and there have been plenty of recent examples where two generations of Apple product (and of Apple SoC) were dropped from support at the same time (A9 and A10 Fusion devices dropped from iOS 16 being a pretty significant example; Haswell, Broadwell, and Skylake Macs from 2015 and 2016 being dropped from macOS Ventura being another).

It is all 100% on where Apple decides to draw the line when it comes time to do so. Could it be that Apple decides to have macOS only support DDR5 RAM and newer? If so, that'll see the M1 dropped, but all other M1 variants (Pro, Max, Ultra) and the M2 stay supported. Same if Apple deems that having at least one ProRes decode/encode engine being a necessary hardware feature for a future release of macOS. OR, it could be, like you are suggesting that it's M2 and up architecturally across the board (in which case, anything with M1, whether standard, Pro, Max, or Ultra gets cut while M2 stays in the game). We won't know until Apple announces that eventual release of macOS at a WWDC and Apple themselves probably won't know until they start building that release.

I'm definitely waiting for an M2 mini. Will be very disappointed if they're not released by WWDC in June.
I'd prep yourself for disappointment then. Apple doesn't update their desktops as much as they update their laptops. In many cases, they just skip processor generations on the desktops because they can. It wouldn't even remotely shock me if the Mac mini and iMac didn't get the M2 at all and skipped to the M3. This also happens often with iPhones and iPads with A-series SoCs. The iPad mini got A8, A12 Bionic, and A15 Bionic. The iPad Air got A8, A12 Bionic, A14, and now M1. The only Apple product guaranteed to keep getting the latest Apple Silicon SoCs at this point are the iPhone Pros.
 
I ordered my M1 Mini 16GB/256GB on Thursday. If this wasn't the first desktop that I've bought for myself in over 20 years, I would have bumped the storage a bit, but I had to allocate resources to a display, trackpad, and keyboard. I'll plug in an external SSD for bulk storage, but 256GB is still pretty manageable for me since most of my stuff is stored in the cloud now and I keep a local copy of my critical work on my work laptop.

I think it's likely that new Macs come in March, the Mini included, but if the AR/VR headset announcement is coming in March or more likely at WWDC, I can see resources being reallocated and a Mac launches being pushed back to November. I just decided it wasn't worth the wait.

I also would not be surprised to see any M2 options coming with a significant price bump. Apple has a history of charging a premium for its research and development for a couple years and then backing down prices. This happened with the transition to Retina Displays, and happens as prices drop on older phones. I suspect that were are migrating toward a future where 2 generations of M* Macs exist side by side so Apple can reach some traditional price points and charge excessive margins on the latest and greatest. Because of this, I see the M1 staying around as the lowest tier option for at least another year. It also would not surprise me if the base model Mini stays at M1 and the remaining Intel Mini gets replaced with an M2 Pro. If we get a case design change, then the higher tier will offer M2 and M2 Pro and the M1 Mini hangs around for a while like the M1 Air 13" MBP.
 
I just ordered a refurbish M1 Mini 8GB/512GB, combined with a refurbished Apple Studio Display. Figuring that I can always sell the Mini if I require something beefier. It is replacing a 7.5 -year old iMac (Retina 4K, 21.5-inch). The alternative would have been a similarly priced iMac M1 (16GB, 2TB), but I strongly dislike the pastel colours of the chin, and on the other hand I love the Studio Display quality.
 
M2 Pro pricing is a little higher than I’d like… with 32GB RAM it’s basically the same price as M1 Max Studio 🥺
Right? I partly want the pro just for the extra ports.

I was hoping pricing for RAM upgrades would be a little cheaper 😭

Well, the fact that the new Mini is less expensive is a nice touch at least.
 
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I just ordered a refurbish M1 Mini 8GB/512GB, combined with a refurbished Apple Studio Display. Figuring that I can always sell the Mini if I require something beefier. It is replacing a 7.5 -year old iMac (Retina 4K, 21.5-inch). The alternative would have been a similarly priced iMac M1 (16GB, 2TB), but I strongly dislike the pastel colours of the chin, and on the other hand I love the Studio Display quality.
So guess what? I’ll be returning the M1 Mac mini, because I just ordered the M2 pro Mac mini with one terabyte storage.
 
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I’m tempted to stick with the base SSD for the Mac Mini, but I’m almost at 200GB on my MBP, and that’s after moving a ton of files into a drive.

I’m planning on getting a more specced out Mac Mini down the line (this one would be for a different and less intensive workspace), but I feel sticking to the low SSD is gonna be a regret down the line 🤔

Edit: Writing it down makes it clear what I should do LOL.
 
I’m tempted to stick with the base SSD for the Mac Mini, but I’m almost at 200GB on my MBP, and that’s after moving a ton of files into a drive.

I’m planning on getting a more specced out Mac Mini down the line (this one would be for a different and less intensive workspace), but I feel sticking to the low SSD is gonna be a regret down the line 🤔

Edit: Writing it down makes it clear what I should do LOL.
Also the internal SSD is super fast. Hard to duplicate the read/write speeds with external storage.
 
There seems to be problems with macOS' management of System Files and iMessage attachments. I've seen them balloon to over 100 GB for no good reason, even when iCloud storage is utilized. It appears to be a combination of bugs that only some people get, but for that reason I now recommend having more free storage for Macs than I used to recommend for older versions of macOS / OS X.
 
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I’ll be sticking with my M1 and call it a lesson learned.

Having the machine set up and in service is worth more to me than the downtime spent waiting on a new machine in addition to the hours spent driving to return and pick up the new machine. Not to mention, I’d end up spending more because a storage bump would have been closer to my budget on the machine.

Sure, I’m a little bummed that I don’t have the latest and greatest, but I have a machine that is more than capable of doing what I need it to do, and will do so for years to come.
 
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I’ll be sticking with my M1 and call it a lesson learned.

Having the machine set up and in service is worth more to me than the downtime spent waiting on a new machine in addition to the hours spent driving to return and pick up the new machine. Not to mention, I’d end up spending more because a storage bump would have been closer to my budget on the machine.

Sure, I’m a little bummed that I don’t have the latest and greatest, but I have a machine that is more than capable of doing what I need it to do, and will do so for years to come.
For most people the jump from M1 to M2 won’t make much of a difference. The exceptions being those who need 24GB of RAM or better ProRes support. The jump to the M2 Pro is more substantial but overkill for most users. Enjoy your mini! I bought mine this last December and it truly is an awesome machine, even after the launch of the M2 version.
 
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