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Apple Becomes $3 Trillion Company Again, But Nvidia Steals the Moment

Rogifan said:
Can someone explain how NVIDIA isn’t overvalued? Seems like they’re riding the wave of the AI bubble more than anyone else.
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From their latest quarterly results:

  • Record quarterly revenue of $26.0 billion, up 18% from Q4 and up 262% from a year ago
  • Record quarterly Data Center revenue of $22.6 billion, up 23% from Q4 and up 427% from a year ago
  • Ten-for-one forward stock split effective June 7, 2024
  • Quarterly cash dividend raised 150% to $0.01 per share on a post-split basis
 
Cirillo Gherardo said:
NVIDIA vastly over valued. Apple vastly under valued.
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Tim Cook got too greedy for too long. All of Apple's products are full of deliberate feature limitations to allow for overpriced upgrading, or for feature incrementations for the next iterative product release, or for funnelling through a monopoly market (aka the App Store). Other products have caught up, or overtaken Apple, across the most profitable segments, e.g. phones.

Read my signature to understand the fundamental failure of this profit model.
 
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I picked up a few shares when it was just under $27 a share and ignored it until recently. I'm not ignoring it anymore.
 
sideshowuniqueuser said:
Tim Cook got too greedy for too long. All of Apple's products are full of deliberate feature limitations to allow for overpriced upgrading, or for feature incrementations for the next iterative product release, or for funnelling through a monopoly market (aka the App Store). Other products have caught up, or overtaken Apple, across the most profitable segments, e.g. phones.

Read my signature to understand the fundamental failure of this profit model.
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Well better deliberate feature limitations than unintentional incompetent ones.

DELL I am looking at you.
 
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cjsuk said:
Well better deliberate feature limitations than unintentional incompetent ones.

DELL I am looking at you.
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Well, I guess that's one way of looking at it. Not sure it makes much difference to the consumer when it comes to where the consumer $ go.
 
coffeemilktea said:
Nvidia's growth is due largely to the fact that their GPUs are powering most AI things these days... if Apple were to unveil AI hardware of their own, I wonder if their stock price would shoot up like crazy? 🤔
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Unlikely I think as they would not be sold to mass market only for Apple products
 
sideshowuniqueuser said:
Sure, but there is no way in hell AI's capabilities are plateauing, they are accelerating exponentially. The best part of this graph that would match where AI is at the moment is still in the R&D phase. Running LLM's is currently limited by the capability and cost of the hardware. And that's merely LLM's, we haven't even got to the point of Strong AI yet.
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My observation of AI is that it currently still suffers from a profitability issue. I can’t find the quote right now, but someone remarked on mastodon that the various companies have collectively spent a ton of money on AI, but generated only a small amount in revenue (not even profits), and it’s not even clear how they plan to monetise their products moving forward.

I don’t know about AI capabilities plateauing, but this sort of business sure ain’t cheap to go into, and I fully expect to see companies go under as their funding runs out and they don’t have a sustainable business model to show for all the money they have sunk into it.
 
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picpicmac said:
Sigh... always here people are complaining about Apple prices for Mac configs, but I can easily shop for other companies which have similar deltas for prices.
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Complaining about Apple upgrade prices is out of context with the entire industry.
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SSD config prices are similar, yes, but with the Lenovo gen 12 I have the option to upgrade the SSD myself.
 
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ILoveCalvinCool said:
Apple ran into the same problem that gargantuan companies often do. They wasted resources on things no one wanted (a car, a headset) because they came to believe that they and not the market were calling the shots. Microsoft made the same mistake when they ignored the internet. Apple is going to have to scramble to catch up, and it won't happen overnight.
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Catch up in what area exactly? AI is still going to need hardware to run on, and last I checked, that's precisely what Apple sells.

The problem I find is that nobody seems to know what will succeed the smartphone, and maybe that's the point. Apple already sells the most profitable product - the iPhone, and there may never be another product category as successful as it.
 
gusping said:
Absolutely, he's done a sterling job. He has gamers to thank for much of it. Nvidia until recently was a gaming-focused company, with hardware directed at gamers. These gaming GPUs just happen to be very good at AI.

The proof will be in the pudding of these software companies. I think it is a bit of a bubble that will normalise soon, and demand for these $40k GPUs will drop off. Time will tell.
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I agree. Nvidia’s leadership has been exceptional and the same guys started out as engineers (sound like another former leader we remember?)

that said, Nvidia transformed the discreet gpu market around pc gaming, yes. But they made their nuts in crypto mining. Gpu use in distributed object storage is also becoming transformational. Nvidia took discrete gpu offloading of traditional multi threaded/dimensional cpu workload to market and were uniquely positioned to do so. In short, the company nailed it. AI is a buzzword, but LLMs are here to stay and multi dimensional workloads will continue to increasingly dominate regardless of how you define AI.
 
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coffeemilktea said:
Nvidia's growth is due largely to the fact that their GPUs are powering most AI things these days... if Apple were to unveil AI hardware of their own, I wonder if their stock price would shoot up like crazy? 🤔
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I doubt it. It is not like they would sell it to outsiders for a long time. They will be consuming them for their own datacenters. Intel is coming up with some of their own shortly too, I believe.
 
akerr said:
Nvidia’s most recent quarterly profit was $14 billion. Apple has exceeded that for the last 10 years, most recently with $23.6 billion.
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Nvidia's earnings has grown 4x and earnings per share about 10x over the past year or so. Apple's has grown something like 5%, give or take. The numbers are stark enough I didn't do a careful analysis.

Nvidia is on a growth path. Apple is a consistent money maker, but not really growing much right now. If Nvidia's profits continue on this path, their PE which is a bit over twice Apples right now, will be the same as Apple's in a few months. Past performance is not an indication of future returns, etc, etc, but looking at a data point without looking at how it's likely to evolve gives a misleading comparison.
 
jooish said:
Hey Siri, is NVIDIA stock over valued?
Siri: "NVIDIA was up 5.16% today, trading at $1224.40."

AI that uses NVIDIA: "is apple stock under valued?"

AI:
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One of the few times I think referencing AI in a response seems appropriate.

I also don't want to see Apple go too far over its head into AI though. I worry the Wall Street insanity is going to motivate bad product decisions across the tech industry.
 
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coffeemilktea said:
Nvidia's growth is due largely to the fact that their GPUs are powering most AI things these days... if Apple were to unveil AI hardware of their own, I wonder if their stock price would shoot up like crazy? 🤔
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Apple has no AI hardware in terms of NVidia hardware. Even in the GPU market we‘re talking about 16000 cores and 24GB of GPU memory and the consumer cards will reach about 24000 cuda cores and 48GB of memory this fall.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/2131...ors-announced-going-bigger-with-smaller-data#
 
NVIDIA’s PE is very high, but not absurd if you think it can grow sustainably. However, I think the biggest problem is that those profits are based on selling GPUs for use cases that are not profitable at all.
 
sideshowuniqueuser said:
Tim Cook got too greedy for too long. All of Apple's products are full of deliberate feature limitations to allow for overpriced upgrading, or for feature incrementations for the next iterative product release, or for funnelling through a monopoly market (aka the App Store). Other products have caught up, or overtaken Apple, across the most profitable segments, e.g. phones.

Read my signature to understand the fundamental failure of this profit model.
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That might be your opinion as a customer, but it’s not what the market says. Apple is at all-time highs or close in most of its segments (e.g. phone), in terms of market share. The challenge for growth is not that they don’t offer competitive products, but the fact that those segments are stagnant.
 
coffeemilktea said:
Nvidia's growth is due largely to the fact that their GPUs are powering most AI things these days... if Apple were to unveil AI hardware of their own, I wonder if their stock price would shoot up like crazy? 🤔
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No, it won’t. Apple’s business model is just not compatible with the market NVIDIA is serving.
 
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