No, it won’t.
Jobs didn’t return to Apple because of a desire to lead the most valuable public company in the world. He wanted to create great and innovative products.
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Apple Becomes $3 Trillion Company Again, But Nvidia Steals the Moment
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Jobs didn’t return to Apple because of a desire to lead the most valuable public company in the world. He wanted to create great and innovative products.
At this point Apple is Coca Cola. No path to break out revenue growth. NVidia’s growth right now is on limited by production capacity.
NVIDIA is valued on expectation rather than profitability, and history shows how unreliable that can be.
When it is mostly 4 or 5 big companies buying almost the whole supply of GPUs then that's not sustainable, especially if there's insider stock purchasing going on. At some point those customers have no place to install new GPUs, the costs are too high compared to the revenue, and they can't even get hold of enough energy supply to expand unless they go and exploit some poor country by installing a dictator there.
Very close to 80% of the generative AI stuff gets deleted because either it is unusable text/images or it's just people clicking 'generate' out of curiosity or for the lolz.
That means a massive amount of compute power is being wasted on tasks that have no wide economic benefit except to pass on micropayments to a handful of firms, some of whom will disappear and probably have anonymous ownership so you can't tax their income.
Then there's the vast sea of spam and bots that have increased manifold thanks to generative AI making it easier.
Reality is already setting in with wide criticism about how concentrated the power is in this space, that a very big chunk of compute power is wasted on non-productive digital content with no economic benefit. That's why the Justice Department and the FTC have agreed today to take a look at the shenanigans inside Nvidia, Microsoft and OpenAI. They should also be looking at Musk's useless bulk purchase of GPUs (his cars have a software engineering problem more than a hardware problem) and if he is assisting insider traders, including himself, to pump the stock.
A breaking point occurs when the majority can't be bothered generating waste anymore, when a majority start to protest the increase in spam and generative fake news, regulators say enough is enough, but by then the insiders will have cashed out their shares without telling anyone they had enough data to show the bubble was popping.
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NVidia will tank shortly and the industry will be normalised. Watch what happens over the whole AI industry fall out. The big investors are starting to move out already because they rode the gains. Now regulation, non-delivery and over-promise is going to kick in. This is the standard maturity curve for a new technology, the Gartner Hype Cycle
We are right at supplier proliferation.
We've done the whole "AI" thing a couple of times before and it was a bust before. It just has money and tech companies behind it this time.
Don't agree. This isn't new technology. AI certainly isn't new. What Nvidia is making and selling isn't new. Machine learning isn't new. LLMs are relatively new have created some of the buzz, but that's not the only thing creating the boom.
LLM's are here to stay - they'll be THE defacto way we vocally interact with computers. The AI boom will be as important as the internet. There will of course be crashes and casualties, but I don't think it'll be Nvidia who have just generally increased in size having gone from someone who makes gaming video cards to a company that now has huge enterprise customers.
I thought that when I added it to my investment portfolio - and then it went up another 45%...
Vocal interaction with a computer is fine in Star Trek because filmmakers need to make the story move along and don't have enough screen time to show characters typing and moving a mouse all the time.
In reality you don't really want to hear yourself talking to a computer all day and neither do people around you. Vocal interaction is fine for brief queries like searching for something, stopping an alarm, or asking about the weather but because "AI" will always have bugs, like all software does, you will be frustrated trying to vocally interact too much.
Even the simplest and oldest apps we use have annoying bugs, so please lower your expectations of some kind of science fiction future.
The de facto way of interacting with computers will remain a cursor or finger forever.
Word for word what we read at the top of every bubble. I had an uncle who said that and lost $3 million during the DotCom bubble. I have two cousins who thought they were moon boys and lost all their money on FTX.
For every person who makes a profit in stock holding or stock trading there are losers too. Everyone can't be a winner.
Tim needs to just buy Nvidia and use their patents to power their AI initiatives. Saves Apple from competing with them in the AI race. That’s usually how Apple gets rid of the competition.
Question for a finance guy: I see that there are two Alphabet stocks (GOOG and GOOGL) and I understand the difference (voting rights) but I don't understand how the value adds up. Each of the ticket has a total market value slightly above $2T currently, so is the value of the company $4T? Or are these somehow merged into a single valuation?
Get over yourself and learn to fact check! On December 14, 2023, Apple hit its all-time high of $198.11/share. Yesterday it closed at 195.87. A stunning loss of about 1.25% from its ALL TIME HIGH. A lot of really happy AAPL investors like me bought Apple when Jobs returned. My 50 share purchase is now 1,631 shares due to splits and reinvested dividends. My $50,425 investment is currently worth, wait for it....$319,488.24.
If that's butthurt I bet you wish you were more butthurt!
Great investment. And you might be right that Nvidia's stock will rise. But keep in mind that it is trading at 71 P/E ratio, while MS is at 37 and Apple at 31. So Nvidia needs to radically increase its earning to justify its current market cap (and MS and Apple need to significantly increase their earnings as well).
Doesn’t Apple still have some ongoing feud with Nvidia? Or does that apply only to the use of graphics cards in their laptops? Not that it matters now with Apple silicon…
If that happens, it won't be long before Nvidia falls quite a bit. Nvidia does not have the type of market that companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google do.
They are very profitable, but they're experiencing a rare spike in revenue right now. It literally cannot last.
I believe the PE is rich and grossly irrational. If you truly believe the company is undervalued, then you should buy as much stock as possible right away.
I've always been a fan of "put up or shut up." Well, I put up in Sept. 2, 2022, in the amount of 200 shares of Nvidia, which will become 2,000 shares tomorrow (June 7). It's currently up 770.82% in that time frame. Yes, I know there's no inherent economic value in a stock split, but it will inevitably lead to purchases by funds that invest in lower priced stocks, and consumers who don't understand that buying ten shares at $1,200 is the same as buying 100 shares at $120. And yes, the P/E is expensive relative to the S&P 500. However, its growth metrics both previous and forward looking can be used to justify that steep ratio. It's up to you to analyze the growth potential of AI at the consumer, educational and business arenas, and take a close look at geopolitical events (regulation in particular, but also including things such as recessions, depressions, wars, pandemics, leadership changes, interest rates and currency fluctuations) that could affect that potential.
Question is, where do you stand on those combined possibilities? Is it the go-go early & mid 1920's or October 1929? I'm not selling at this point. That could change.
Oh come on don't do that here! Back in 2002 I went and blew 10k into Apple stock when it was $9 original asking price before none of that bs splits. Do you know why? Because I knew iPod would be the next cool thing for kids and that $9 per share is beyond obvious underestimation.
But but but... Everyone always gives applause when someone says Apple should buy another company? Is entitlement only entitled to Apple??
Not my fight, but you might want to sell now while your net worth is high.
Apple currently has nothing in the pot for the future.
- The car was cancelled.
- The VR headset doesn’t do anything that’ll change my life.
- The iPhone is mature and stale to the point where I may switch to a Pixel or Ultra.
- The iPad continues to be utilized wrong.
- Apple is far behind on AI capabilities and usage.
- The Mac is literally just an average computer.
- Apple Watch Ultra is nice, but isn’t up to its capabilities.
- The Apple Card is an afterthought at this point that’s waiting until the day it dies out.
Cook will drive the company into the ground and then retire.