Yes, the old adage around insurance (for things that aren't mandatory) is that if you can afford a claim (eg. it won't seriously hurt), it will be worth it "in the long run" to not buy insurance and self-insure. With a Mac, I would imagine most people buying one *could* afford it if it broke and they had to pay a big repair bill (or pay for a replacement device), but it would still *hurt*. The extent to how much it hurts depends on personal financial factors.
The other angles I've often told friends about the decision to get AppleCare+ or not:
- Will it be traveled with a lot (eg. iPhone, or laptop you'll be taking with you out of the home frequently?)
- How careful are you in taking care of items? Do you have young kids, pets, etc. where accidents are more likely?
- For Macs, are you getting the base model or a more expensive CTO version? The price of AppleCare+ is the same, regardless of configuration. So if you're getting a more expensive version (eg. higher ram or storage config), the % cost of AppleCare+ is lower, while the cost of repair (or a new device) goes up. So all things equal, AppleCare+ makes increasing sense the higher-spec you have
- Compared to other companies' insurance / extended warranties, I think Apple and AppleCare+ is the best. Other companies do everything they can to DENY your claims. It's an open secret. So the headache factor of submitting a claim, and the risk you might get denied, should play a factor (to the downside) when betting an optional warranty from another company. Apple on the other hand, I think treats their AppleCare+ customers like royalty - they do everything they can to APPROVE your claim. As long as one has a friendly, non-entitled attitude, I find that Apple reps do what they can to help, and is the model "warranty" that consumers really should have. It's what makes it easy(er) to recommend AppleCare+ to family and friends, should the other factors make it make sense.
Personally, I have AppleCare+ on my 2021 14" M1 Pro MBP, and my iPhone 15 PM. Both are on the annual / monthly plans, so I can continue for as long (or as short) as I feel makes sense for me. It's slightly more expensive than buying the 3-yr / 2-yr at-time-of-purchase, but the optionality is worth it for me.