Comparisons to 4700U and 4800U are a bit unfair IMO
Yes, the M1 is the best CPU in its class of 15W power usage.
But to be honest, it's basically in a class of its own, AMD and Intel don't actually have a (good) 15W offering. Yes, some chips can downclock to that level, but their optimal configuration is way higher and are not really designed for that level. Their strong point is at 25W, boosting to 35W.
It'll be interesting to compare an 8+4 core M1X with a Zen 3 5800U.
Yes, this will be interesting, because AMD cannot efficiently scale to 15W (for now), but adding more cores to the M1 should result in higher usage, so we will be able to compare CPU in the same TDP class, but with both operating in their optimal conditions.
If you want faster multi-core throughput that scales linearly in energy. No-one's going to beat Apple there. Right now Apple 4+4 matches (~handwaving~) 6 x86 cores+SMT, at about half to a third the power. They can easily double that power (8+8 cores, 16 GPU cores) at 40W, absolute worst case scenario 65W (essentially all cores maxed out at 40W, GPU maxed out at 25W). That's linear scaling, will kill anything
Scaling up and down is not linear. For example, the 4-core 4300U is very close in power usage to the 4800U. Just adding more cores is not that easy, for example they have to access the same memory via the same connection. Yes, it might work up to 8 cores, but it might not. AMD has been struggling with this a lot.
Will AMD and Intel have picked up 20% in their single threaded performance by then? Unlikely
Zen 3 on desktop (which is set to be released on mobile early 2021) is 20% faster than Zen 2 (the current ones). This is actually the normal increase generation to generation. So in January, Apple will be at most just one generation ahead. This is no small feat, but they are not impossible to reach. Don't forget that Apple was using 14nm Intel CPUs up to this point, that are basically 5 years old (with some optimizations, but still). In the good days of Intel, they were moving with Apple's pace. And they were set to transition to 10nm (which has similar single-core performance actually, but they only have 4 cores.) years ago. If they weren't struggling, it would have been near impossible to match them.
And Apple needs to make the GPU at least 3x faster to match the 5600M.
That's quite the uphill climb.
Discrete GPU performance will be way more difficult to match, NVIDIA didn't have competition for some time, so they weren't exactly improving very fast, but they haven't faced the delays that Intel has.
And I'll also be interested to see if AMD resurrect K12 or Intel make a new StrongARM part.
Intel is making 4+4 x86 -
https://www.anandtech.com/show/15877/intel-hybrid-cpu-lakefield-all-you-need-to-know. The architecture in Apple's ARM is very complex and their efficiency comes from using 5nm, having low-power cores, good execution and good design decision. It's very unlikely that ARM vs x86 actually plays a big role. For example -
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme...-or-mips-intrinsically-more-power-efficient/3