Apple stock free-fall!

[LangleyAls]

did you make any money or loose?

Bought them at around $110 in August and promised myself i wouldn't sell until they had doubled in value! I just panicked with this whole recession thing! Next time I will just stick to my guns! Atleast some profit made but still!
It must be said, this stock market thing, trickier than it looks!!

 

[IJ Reilly]

I've held AAPL since 1997. Every time I boot myself around and ask myself "why didn't I sell last week?" I find after a while I'm happy I did not sell. My only regret is the several hundred shares I sold a few years ago.

 

[jackc]

What to do I bought a little while ago at $190? Best to hold on I guess for the next several months. Any suggestions from you guys?

The price you paid should have absolutely no relevance on whether you sell or not (except possibly if you want to consider your tax liability). You've already taken the loss.

 

[n-abounds]

Mmm, bought in at $127. Sadly, I have so little money not invested in ETFC that I could only afford 5 shares Ah well, good pocket change.

 

[QCassidy352]

You've already taken the loss.

No, he hasn't. He takes the loss when he sells the shares. If he holds it and the stock rebounds, it really won't matter what today's price was.

I bought in at $37, sold some at $75, and some more at $130. So it's really all just gravy at this point. That said, I'm confident in apple's position as a company, so I don't see selling in this short-term panic.

 

[jackc]

No, he hasn't. He takes the loss when he sells the shares. If he holds it and the stock rebounds, it really won't matter what today's price was.

I bought in at $37, sold some at $75, and some more at $130. So it's really all just gravy at this point. That said, I'm confident in apple's position as a company, so I don't see selling in this short-term panic.

Right, what I meant was, right now he's down x dollars, and the decision to sell should not be based on your purchase price. If you bought at the close today, you should have the same decision as if you paid $100 more (again tax considerations excluded).

 

[akadmon]

What to do I bought a little while ago at $190? Best to hold on I guess for the next several months. Any suggestions from you guys?

As someone else said, Apple is a solid company, so if you keep the stock, you will eventually make money on your investment. The question is: what does "eventually" mean? Unfortunately for you, the stock was way overvalued when you bought it. Combined with the overall state of the US/world economy, I say it will be at least a couple of years before the stock hits $200. My advice is: unless you're desperate for cash, keep it.

 

[pjarvi]

I just auto-invest on a weekly basis, so the lower it goes the more I get. I wish Apple would split to get the price back down so more people could buy in.

 

[IJ Reilly]

I just auto-invest on a weekly basis, so the lower it goes the more I get. I wish Apple would split to get the price back down so more people could buy in.

Splits don't matter. If you can't afford to buy even one share, you probably should not be investing in stock.

 

[lucky3killer]

Well, Apple's share is higher than Dell, Sony, HP and MS.

No surprise to see fall in share.

 

[lucky3killer]

I think Apple is a victim of the broader economic climate. I don't think there is anything particularly wrong with Apple as a company. With the housing and credit problems in the United States being expected to cause a decline in consumer spending, Apple's revenue is expected to grow at a slower pace. Apple is a growth stock and much of the price on any given day reflects the market's confidence in Apple's prospects for future growth. Given the state of the economy, these prospect are not as bright now as they might have been.

Yup, You got good point.

Share was went up and down, it will down due credit issue and high gas prices, cause consumers to move away from Apple.

 

[ToddW]

i bought a big chunk in late 2002 or early 2003. been waiting for it to slump again to buy in some more. i guess i need to hold on for a little while longer. next time it hits 200 i'm going to have to take my initial investment plus a percent or two maybe.

 

[67952]

How does one go about buying, say $2000 or so of Apple stock?

Fidelity or Scottstrade. I'd shy away from Etrade. I like Fidelity because they have a dedicated iPhone site.

 

[67952]

I bought AAPL (these are all split-adjusted prices) for $6.50, $12, $27, $58, $70, $88, $94, $103, $130, and just three weeks ago for $202 (ugh!).

It's at around $135 right now. I think its a good time to buy. Remember: buy damaged stocks, not damaged companies. Apple is one of the healthiest on the planet. The room for growth is limitless (due to their small marketshare in phones and computers). I do not think iPod sales will decrease. With future touches and shuffles, I think Apple will put many more iPods into hands of people who are still buying their first MP3 player or upgrading an old one.

I think the first half of 2008 might not do much for the stock (or the market in general) but I see AAPL back at $200 by the fall and $250 by the end of the year. When the economy recovers, and if Apple can sell 50 million iPhones in the next three years, while continuing to grow their computer biz in Europe and Asia I think it's easily a $600 stock in 36 months.

For those freaked out by the recent fall: I remember when the stock was around $90 a share and in three weeks it fell to something like $54. Everyone freaked out. People said the ride was over. The ride is not over until Apple becomes a damaged company.

I'd enjoy hearing any agreements/disagreements on this post.

 

[macdaddy121]

I bought AAPL (these are all split-adjusted prices) for $6.50, $12, $27, $58, $70, $88, $94, $103, $130, and just three weeks ago for $202 (ugh!).

It's at around $135 right now. I think its a good time to buy. Remember: buy damaged stocks, not damaged companies. Apple is one of the healthiest on the planet. The room for growth is limitless (due to their small marketshare in phones and computers). I do not think iPod sales will decrease. With future touches and shuffles, I think Apple will put many more iPods into hands of people who are still buying their first MP3 player or upgrading an old one.

I think the first half of 2008 might not do much for the stock (or the market in general) but I see AAPL back at $200 by the fall and $250 by the end of the year. When the economy recovers, and if Apple can sell 50 million iPhones in the next three years, while continuing to grow their computer biz in Europe and Asia I think it's easily a $600 stock in 36 months.

For those freaked out by the recent fall: I remember when the stock was around $90 a share and in three weeks it fell to something like $54. Everyone freaked out. People said the ride was over. The ride is not over until Apple becomes a damaged company.

I'd enjoy hearing any agreements/disagreements on this post.

My only disagreement is the "easily a $600 stock in 36 months". There is no guarantee we will be economically stable and there are very very few $600 stocks! I know Apple is a solid company but to assume that the stock prices will rise 400% + is hardly an easy thought....Especially with the market the way it is forecasted to be the next year or so. That would be my only issue with your post.

 

[67952]

My only disagreement is the "easily a $600 stock in 36 months". There is no guarantee we will be economically stable and there are very very few $600 stocks! I know Apple is a solid company but to assume that the stock prices will rise 400% + is hardly an easy thought....Especially with the market the way it is forecasted to be the next year or so. That would be my only issue with your post.

I guess I can agree with that. I was basing that on the fact that AAPL has pretty much doubled every year for the last four years: $150x2 = $300 x2 = $600 (well, that math would put it in two years. I was giving three on account of the economy). Maybe 36 months is a stretch, but if the economy improves by the end of 2008, maybe not.

 

[gkarris]

Apple, with the wonderful US economy, will have a rough year. People are going to start realizing that they don't always need the newest iPod or computer.

People on really tight budgets that only use a computer for e-mail or Internet will go for the $449 HP laptop rather than the $1099 MacBook. It not that the HP is better (there's constant arguements about that), but it's a matter of how much money people actually have...

 

[clevin]

I think in next 18 months, highest you can get for APPL is ~$200. the market is getting saturated, and the reality of PC->Mac switch is surfacing, good, and bad. MP3 market is getting there as well.

Lets see what other ideas, new markets apple is going to enter,

 

[IJ Reilly]

My only disagreement is the "easily a $600 stock in 36 months". There is no guarantee we will be economically stable and there are very very few $600 stocks! I know Apple is a solid company but to assume that the stock prices will rise 400% + is hardly an easy thought....Especially with the market the way it is forecasted to be the next year or so. That would be my only issue with your post.

There aren't many $600 stocks because typically the shares are split long before they get there. If a old company like GE for example hadn't split many many times over the years, its shares would probably be selling in the thousands today. Apple has apparently elected to stop splitting for now.

Quadrupling isn't entirely out of the question, given past performance, but I this counts on growth in the next few years at least as good as the past few, which is remote possibility.

The market psychology about AAPL has really never changed in all the years I've been following it. Traders are always prepared to believe that the Apple story is over. They seem to require absolutely irrefutable evidence to believe otherwise, which Apple did not give them this month.

 

[carlgo]

Remember the role of analysts. That can be broken down into anal-ysts. They are fearful little lemmings that scurry around doing what everyone else is doing so they don't get caught on the wrong side of the fence when the bear comes along.

Another factor here, that investors in Apple should note, is that the company is not the darling of the anal-ysts. Many of them simply do not like Apple at all, their products, the management or how they deal with the investment community. Jobs has never been considered to be Wall Street friendly. And he isn't.

There is still that East Coast mind-set that Apple is run by a bunch of hippies that wear tie-dyed shirts and smoke weed in the break room. The anal-ysts would rather deal with IBM and other "mainstream" companies.

The bottom line to this story is that Apple is going to be a more volatile stock than most and will go down hard if there is any little glitch at all. It has done well by me, in at $17, but I have to ignore the big downs and that isn't easy.

 

[unity2000]

My theory

Apple sells luxury items at a premium price... no one really 'needs' these items but since times are good and consumers have disposable cash, they buy them.

In times of economic uncertainty consumers will cut out the luxury items and just buy enough to satisfy the basic needs.

Need a laptop to surf the web and manage your email?
Dell sells em for as low as $499.

Doesn't make much sense to to pay a premium for Apple and spend $1099. They can use the $600 savings for food or school books for the kids instead of Apple's pockets.

I think this is why Apple is tanking.. investors realize this very thing.

 

[Consultant]

Apple sells luxury items at a premium price... no one really 'needs' these items but since times are good and consumers have disposable cash, they buy them.

In times of economic uncertainty consumers will cut out the luxury items and just buy enough to satisfy the basic needs.

Need a laptop to surf the web and manage your email?
Dell sells em for as low as $499.

Doesn't make much sense to to pay a premium for Apple and spend $1099. They can use the $600 savings for food or school books for the kids instead of Apple's pockets.

I think this is why Apple is tanking.. investors realize this very thing.

No, Apple is not tanking, Apple has just made their largest quarterly sales ever.

Stock value is dependent on the market condition. Note the WHOLE market went down.

In addition, just because YOU can't afford anything beside the bottom of the barrel dell, doesn't mean other people can't afford it. In fact, plenty of people can afford it, as Apple just had record sales.

 

[unity2000]

In addition, just because YOU can't afford anything beside the bottom of the barrel dell, doesn't mean other people can't afford it. In fact, plenty of people can afford it, as Apple just had record sales.

Sorry pal, don't assume I have money problems which I don't.

I am just stating the obvious when times get hard people will conserve their money.

 

[theman]

I'm counting on today being the right day to buy shares.

umm, i think that was 5 years ago....

 

[Tiger the Frog]

I'm hanging in there

I don't buy the idea that people will buy Dells and not Apples because times are tough. This is based on the idea that people are logical. If people behaved in a logical way, there would never have been this sub-prime mess.

If you are a hip college student and you want a MacBook, you want a MacBook. That's all there is too it. You don't want a stupid Dell, any more than you want to wear uncool sneakers just because they're cheaper.

If anything, people will buy iPods because they are depressed that they are losiing money. And they'll buy a Wii too. We're all going broke so let's have some fun!

People will keep buying Apples. I went over to the store in NYC and it was packed as usual. Check out your local store.

The Apple stock freefall began when Apple announced a lower growth for Quarter One 2008. (in other words, less growth than 4th Quarter 2007, the best ever.) I want to ask you all how many times has Steve Jobs announced a target and not beat it? And how many times has Apple stock tanked because of reasons that had nothing to do with its solidity as a company?

Umm...it sold at $110 for awhile last summer. And it fell again n September right after Jobs announced he was cutting the price of the iPhone. Obviously no one was buying iPhones! Time to jump out the window!

And then as you all know...it was up to $200 soon after.

No one knows about the stock market. If you think the stock market smarties know it all, why did they just lose billions of dollars on the subprime deals?

The stock is low because people are AFRAID that Apple will have less profits. They don't know. Nobody does. (Maybe Jobs does...)

Unprofitable companies go down the tubes. Phony companies with cooked books built with smoke and mirrors. Apple is a very profitable company. They rip you off in 5000 different ways! 250 for a gig of memory. Or you can buy 4 gigs at OWC. Every time you buy iLife or Quicktime you have to pay the whole thing. No upgrades. Everything breaks and then they come out with cool stuff. I'm on my third iPod. My battery for my MacBook, bought in January, is already tanking.

But I will keep buying Apple. I'll sell my house, I'll sell my blood to keep buying Apple. But I haven't had to do anything drastic yet because I've made so much money on Apple stock that I've had more money to buy Apple stuff.

Apple will always fall when the general market falls or when there's some stupid irrational panic. Many of the stock analysts I've read still say it will go back over 200 at some point. (not sure when, though)

I'm hanging tough. I'm keeping all my stock and buying a few more thousand now. I will sell some when it gets to 200 and then wait for the next irrational panic.

I predict it will get up to 225 before the end of the year And then there will be a panic and it will drop back to 160. And then...oh you get the idea.

I think the idea I've heard is to buy low and sell high. But I do agree with the guy who said buy a little bit and wait to see if it goes down further. That's what I've been doing.

Of course, what the hell do I know?

Good luck everybody!