Apple stock free-fall!

[blairwillis]

AAPL is dipping yet again, a new 52 wk low of $124.20 nearing the end of the day.

It's a shame, really, but it's getting kicked hard in an already crap market.

I managed to sell at just under $170, and advised family & friends to sell that were still holding when it breached $200 (and they did, thankfully!). I figured we'd see down below $150, maybe $140, but it's ridiculous now

Real-time at 123.67 and looking down. Yikes.

I would have bought back in, but due to the overall market situation, I'm afraid we've not seen bottom yet.

 

[blairwillis]

Update:

AAPL closed the day at 122.00 and is below 120 now (119.90) in after-hours trading.


It seems CSCO's release of cautious guidance is pulling hard on the sector. And I don't know what the heck is happening with poor SGIC, down almost 10% today.

I'll tell you what, with AAPL's terrible trend in this crap market, I think we're still just getting a taste of things to come. Apple is a strong company (by the numbers, I'm not talking as a product fan here) with an amazing cash reserve. There's no reason they'd have worse than some hiccups or slight heartburn in even a "recession" period of a few months, which is not at all accurately reflected in the last few weeks of AAPL #'s.

And earlier on I had the impression it was due to overhype and buildup to MacWorld and earnings, along with a perhaps overzealous pump due to the iPhone, however this is just way beyond the realm of "correction".

 

[Peace]

Update:

AAPL closed the day at 122.00 and is below 120 now (119.90) in after-hours trading.


It seems CSCO's release of cautious guidance is pulling hard on the sector. And I don't know what the heck is happening with poor SGIC, down almost 10% today.

I'll tell you what, with AAPL's terrible trend in this crap market, I think we're still just getting a taste of things to come. Apple is a strong company (by the numbers, I'm not talking as a product fan here) with an amazing cash reserve. There's no reason they'd have worse than some hiccups or slight heartburn in even a "recession" period of a few months, which is not at all accurately reflected in the last few weeks of AAPL #'s.

And earlier on I had the impression it was due to overhype and buildup to MacWorld and earnings, along with a perhaps overzealous pump due to the iPhone, however this is just way beyond the realm of "correction".

This is exactly why there wasn't a stock split a month ago.

 

[IJ Reilly]

This is exactly why there wasn't a stock split a month ago.

I don't think so. In fact, I can't see a single reason to believe this.

 

[MBX]

I'm glad i pulled out a few weeks ago (wish i did at 200 though), it's at 117 or 118 as of now. A real shame.

 

[/dev/toaster]

The whole market seems to be declining pretty fast. I am waiting for Apples stock to get under $100 again so I can get in on purchasing some. (Like 2 shares LOL)

 

[Much Ado]

This is exactly why there wasn't a stock split a month ago.

*Sigh* There wasn't a stock split because there is very little point in splitting a stock in the first place.

I have an Apple, I have two halves of an Apple. All the same to me. Any difference is in the mind.

 

[Dave00]

Update:

AAPL closed the day at 122.00 and is below 120 now (119.90) in after-hours trading.

Actually, the person who's probably going to do the best in all this is the earlier poster who bought at various price points, including the top. Trying to time the market, or even an individual stock, is very difficult business and often ruled more by emotion than reason. You'd probably do better to just buy a set dollar amount at regular intervals, without worrying about what it's going to do in the near term. I bought into AAPL at around 57, pre-iPhone. I bought some more when it plummetted to $130, and I'll probably buy some more this week around $120. Could it drop to $60? Sure. Will it? Who knows. I can't tell you how often I've made the mistake of saying "I'll buy it when it goes below 'X'," only to have it start going back up and missing out on some big gains. Over the long haul, it's got a very bright future. Mac market share is growing. Once the iPhone becomes a mature product with a lower price and isn't tied to just one carrier, sales are going to explode. And iPods, though growth is slowing, have a throttle-hold on the portable music player industry. Kids want an iPod, not an MP3 player, even if it has bigger screen/costs less/etc. than an iPod. Cars are starting to come with iPod connectors. That's serious branding.

 

[HD Shooter]

Almost bought at 200

Yes I actually almost bought at $200.

I waited and bought a few hundred shares at $131 when it looked like $130 was the bottom. I have to thank a real pessimist here who said AAPL would hit 117 when it was around the 200 mark.... that was his buy call.

I, like many said no way but the guy had some good points

I waited and thank god! Still right after the purchase it goes to 119, now back to 130 today... phew! What a ride...

I did buy etfc at $3 and did great on that. I bought aapl as a very long term investment knowing that it has so much upside and how solid the company is.

At this valuation I believe that it should be bought and not looked at for a few years if only to buy more.

That my 2 cents

 

[Dr_Maybe]

I just bought some for around $130. They are down a little, but I plan to hold them for years. In a few years I hope that they are at more than $200.

 

[artman1033]

All things aapl financial at the apple finance board http://www.macobserver.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=7

 

[callmemike20]

*Sigh* There wasn't a stock split because there is very little point in splitting a stock in the first place.

I have an Apple, I have two halves of an Apple. All the same to me. Any difference is in the mind.

But imagine this,

You buy 1 share of apple at $100.
The stock splits 2 for 1.
You now have 2 shares valued at $100 at $50 each.
With innovation and more people wanting to buy, it goes back up to $100.
Now you have 2 shares valued at $200, at $100 a piece.
So, you pretty much doubled your money.

Some companies like to keep their stock at a certain price, but with the way the market works, the price just goes up (or down). If it goes way above the price they like, they will split it. With splits, all you are doing is hoping that the stock will be in huge demand and go back up in price, thus giving you more money. Microsoft, for example, likes keeping their stock around 25 bucks. So if it goes to 45 or maybe 60, they will split it.

 

[Dr_Maybe]

But imagine this,

You buy 1 share of apple at $100.
The stock splits 2 for 1.
You now have 2 shares valued at $100 at $50 each.
With innovation and more people wanting to buy, it goes back up to $100.
Now you have 2 shares valued at $200, at $100 a piece.
So, you pretty much doubled your money.

Some companies like to keep their stock at a certain price, but with the way the market works, the price just goes up (or down). If it goes way above the price they like, they will split it. With splits, all you are doing is hoping that the stock will be in huge demand and go back up in price, thus giving you more money. Microsoft, for example, likes keeping their stock around 25 bucks. So if it goes to 45 or maybe 60, they will split it.

I think it is partly psychology.

But at some point a high stock price prohibit people from just buying one stock. 2x$100 and 1x$200 is really the same thing if someone just wants to buy $200 worth of stock. But for $200 they can't buy Berkshire Hathaway for instance because just one share is $143,500. The MAERSK shipping company costs more than the equivalent of USD $10,000. They just don't believe in stock splits.

EDIT: Thanks for the link to the financial board artman.

 

[protozoa]

few questions

I just checked, and it looks like Apple closed at $121.54 (2/21/08).

Am I crazy, or does this look like a great time to buy?

I'm sort of curious.... do most of you deal with online buying services that require a minimum purchase? I was thinking about buying whatever I could get for around a grand, and just sitting on it for several years.

I have always been sort of curious about stocks but have never dabbled in them (we have always stuck with CDs and Mutual Funds).

Frankly, I'm not sure I have ever understood the theory behind it all. If you're willing to hang on to the stocks for five to ten years, seems like the odds of losing money are less than if you're fickle.

A bunch of you are bailing out during this dip. Do you really think that's the right thing to do?? Am I missing something?

 

[ghettochris]

the lower it goes, the happier i get. just means i haven't missed the window of opportunity. since people are extra harsh on apple, this panic will recover, and the lower it goes the more of a bounce there is, and each time it drops more I buy more, lowering my average buy cost.

if it keeps dropping i might have to start getting some cash advances

anyone playing the AAPL game on borrowed money?

i love how the million iphones that got unlocked are LOSING apple hundreds of millions in lost subscription revenue? howbout looking at it as a million MORE iphones sold, and the millions they get from that. sure, it would be sweeter to get millions more in revenue, but i'm sure selling a million more phones than if they were un-unlockable is good for apple, not bad.

like if you pirate a movie you stole $20 from the studio. well, if you didn't pirate it, you probably weren't about to go spend $20, so you just didn't watch it and the studio has the same amount of money in the end, and possibly less popularity since less people will have seen and be talking about the movie.

 

[protozoa]

I purchased my first tiny piece of the Apple today. It was sort of fascinating to watch the price wobble about. I'm just doing it to play around. I don't plan on buying any more than I can afford to completely lose (and that isn't going to be much). It gives me something else to waste time on during the day (besides iTunes radio).

 

[HD Shooter]

I bought in

I increased my position in aapl at just over pennies over 117. 30 shares.

I bought about 30 shares at 130 thinking that was the bottom. I believe that the more iphones locked or not are introducing PC people to the world of mac just like the pod and touch are. This type of brand awareness is going to pay HUGE dividends in the future.

People who were on the fence about the mac platform will be much less reluctant to pull the trigger on a desktop or anything else mac.

There is only one way for apple to go if they even remotely continue on the same trajectory of quality and user friendliness that defines the platform.

I am in long for aapl. I watch to buy on short term dips and will likely buy more if it goes down further. There is no way anyone can tell me that this company is going backwards in profitability or growth.

The Air is not my bag but the title of worlds thinnest is worth major style points. The guy/girl who is sporting one at the airport, flashing the super slick laptop with an apple logo, will only influence onlookers in a positive view of the brand.

As far as the "Iphone killers" goes..... how many times have we heard about Ipod killers? My kid didn't want an MP3 player she wanted an IPOD. I sat in an office comparing the Black berry, the new verizon answer to the iphone, and my iphone. There was just no comparison. The iphone was so clearly WAY WAY superior in features and "coolness" that the other guys finally conceded defeat in the gadget war.

Tell me the last time a company actually came out with a superior product to apple AFTER apple introduced it. ???????????


The retail stores are a HUGE strategic foothold that no one else can even try to achieve.... image the me too factor if dell (pc) attempts to get Brittany Spears (sp) to play at thier new corner store in a wall mart

When something becomes a commodity the only way to get a premium in price is via strong branding. That is why aapl has superior gross margins on thier products.

The only reason I have to not mortage my house to buy aapl is the PE ratio that aapl has as of this moment. 25 or so is still not what I consider a steal but that is ME. I know there will be some who say thats just way to cheap.

The other thing is we all know Jobs gives way conservation guidance EVERY time. I'm looking forward to the next earnings report. As well as my new mac pro 2008.....

 

[LizKat]

Apple sells luxury items at a premium price... no one really 'needs' these items but since times are good and consumers have disposable cash, they buy them.

In times of economic uncertainty consumers will cut out the luxury items and just buy enough to satisfy the basic needs.

Need a laptop to surf the web and manage your email?
Dell sells em for as low as $499.

Doesn't make much sense to to pay a premium for Apple and spend $1099. They can use the $600 savings for food or school books for the kids instead of Apple's pockets.

I think this is why Apple is tanking.. investors realize this very thing.

Yeah sure, they were saying that when I missed it on the way up, bouncing off thirteen or fifteen dollars, somewhere around there. So let me know when it gets to $80 and I'll sell one of the cats to get on board.

As far as the rebates and where people will spend them: it doesn't really matter and that's the attraction of this sort of stimulus. If you buy fast food with it, the guy flipping burgers keeps his job, sees the lines at the cashier counter and stops worrying about whether he's gonna get fired and have to let the bank repo his car. On the way home, he buys his gf a pink nano...

So my advice to you is buy the pink nano and let someone else buy the fast food. And someone will. As long as they still serve fat and salt in a takeaway package, someone will stand in line to buy it.

One thing that can go wrong with the rebate idea: if it's applied too late, people are already squirreling money away, will squirrel that away too and the economy gets practically no bounce. Another thing is that the rebate is more or less like printing money, so the Fed is right to worry that right after a few more rate cuts it will have to make a U-turn and start jacking them up again. Bumpy takeoff? Or prelude to a crash landing? All depends on you. Buy that pink nano today. Or go ahead, get the fries with the burger.

 

[MBX]

anyone know why aapl is so much up right now when the overall market is tanking? anything special i'm missing? can't be the macbook/ pro speed bumps.

 

[Phil A.]

Wirelessly posted (iPhone 16GB: Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/4A102 Safari/419.3)

anyone know why aapl is so much up right now when the overall market is tanking? anything special i'm missing? can't be the macbook/ pro speed bumps.

probably the announcement about the SDK next week. The market doesn't care about it being a week late, but it does care that apple seem to be about to go after the enterprise market. This for me is huge news and could dramatically increase iPhone sales and Mac sales on the back of them.

 

[IJ Reilly]

The market doesn't care about the SDK. What they care about is Apple reiterating the projection of selling ten million iPhones by the end of the year. Some concerns about this had been raised over the last month. Also, AAPL has been hammered mercilessly by the markets for the past six weeks and was due for a rebound.

 

[LizKat]

imo the hammering has been largely bogus and i hope the sec looks into it

 

[00hkelly]

In addition to IJ Reilly's post. If anybody saw the front of the FT today they might have a good idea.

"Apple, Research in Motion and ZTE Corp joined the ranks of the world's 10 largest mobile phone makers in 2007, underlining how technology advances and emerging markets are producing a new cast of winners and losers in the industry."

This combined with the dropping market share of Motorola which is helping boost their competitors stock price.

Announcing that they are launching in the RoI might have helped a little too.

 

[Unspeaked]

The market doesn't care about the SDK. What they care about is Apple reiterating the projection of selling ten million iPhones by the end of the year. Some concerns about this had been raised over the last month. Also, AAPL has been hammered mercilessly by the markets for the past six weeks and was due for a rebound.

IJ Reilly is right: the move today was directly a result of the iPhone target being reiterated.

I posted about it last night here:

LINK

Apple stock took off immediately after this announcement after hours and continued its gains into today's trading session.

 

[00hkelly]

Wonder how much lead GS had on that information lol