ARM based MacBook Pro discussion [merged]

[kaans]

As a developer I'm buying an 16" Macbook right now, but I'm in pretty yolo mode, for all we know, 2021 might never come - While buying a new device should be fun, I feel very dreadful

I think the future is cheap arm devices, but I don't think Apple would make any of your dreams come true - Apple's strategy seems to make us suffer, sell us devices that's destined to become obsolete, and milk us - It could all be very joyful, and honestly I'd spend 2x more money than I do now if they just delivered good hardware, rather than timebombs

Maintaining a running Macbook is costing me $100+ a month, so I switched most of my 24/7 stuff to a $70 Raspberry PI running ARM - it's fanless, it's silent, it's cool and it's cool, I love it

Best part of the ARM revolution would be the move to devices like this: https://www.pine64.org/pinebook-pro/

Cheap, versatile, easily replaceable, fun

As developers, we are moving towards simplification, I'm personally doing everything with Node and Javascript now, so whether it's a server side code, client code, personal code, it's all interoperable - works on any device you can imagine - so moving away from x86 would be a breeze for me personally

However, I believe the gaming industry is always the bottleneck - so a swift worldwide switch to ARM won't be possible :/ For this reason, I suspect, and as everyone suspects, we'll get the first taste of end-computing ARM with regular Macbook's first - and in 2-3 years, when the ecosystem has made a port of everything, it'll be possible to switch to ARM fully

I hope I get a joyful 2 years out of my new x86 Macbook Pro and I look forward to an ARM future

 

[jimmy43]

One concern I would have as a developer is, since Apple is using completely standard x86 hardware, porting packages and libraries is straightforward. A lot of these are developed on Linux first, and then ported - and the differences on the OS level are reasonable. However, that assumption no longer holds for ARM-based macOS, because this is not ARM at all anymore, but custom developed Apple CPUs, lets call them MacARM. In other words, just copying the source code and switching the target to ARM is not going to work, because it will NOT be ARM. Developers will need to use ONLY Apple developed compilers (because obviously the CPU designs are closed source) and rely on Apple for tooling and will have to learn a new ecosystem, which could require significant effort. The end result of this is less things getting ported, and a separation of the nice overlap macOS has had with Linux over the last decade (where if there is a package on linux, you can assume much of the time it's also available on macOs).

People talk like this is the same as when Apple switched from PowerPC to Intel, but its actually exactly the opposite. You are going from a well known platform, to a proprietary custom platform. Large developers like Adobe will adjust, but using the mac platform as a development environment might become significantly more difficult. For example, there are thousands of packages on the brew package manager, with developers who may or may not be active. Who will recompile these to work on MacARM? How difficult will this process be? Just look at what's happened with the state of Machine Learning development on Mac. Apple refuses to support CUDA (because it conflicts with their own platform aspirations of using Metal) and thus its now a dead zone on the Mac until Apple fixes it. True, you can still use ML frameworks on Mac, but these rely on hundreds of libraries underneath - things like Intel's MKL and EMBREE libraries, which of course, Intel will have 0 interest in porting over to non-intel based Macs. Similar stories have played out recently in the areas of Game Development (with Apple killing OpenGL support) and VR.

While macs in the past have made for great machines *for general purpose development*, these recent trends and the switch to ARM is more likely going in the direction of making great machines for *macOS/iOS specific development*.

 

[matram]

You bring up two different topics I think.

Linux packages through Brew, can hardly be seen as something that would impact many users? But in general Linux supports ARM and you could compile a package from source I guess?

When it comes to support for NVidia and CUDA that will simply not happen. Apple seems to be on a clear path where they want to own the whole stack: hardware and frameworks.

I am sure they have ”done the math” and understand they will loose a few customers but gain other advantages.

 

[AttilaTheHun]

My plain is to buy the last MBP 16" with Intel processor b4 the arms comes out

 

[aednichols]

However, that assumption no longer holds for ARM-based macOS, because this is not ARM at all anymore, but custom developed Apple CPUs, lets call them MacARM.

Today, Apple creates proprietary CPU designs that implement the standard, documented ARM instruction set. I see no reason for this to change in the future; forking the ARM ISA in such a way that they lose compiler support seems commercially stupid and unlikely.

Developers will need to use ONLY Apple developed compilers (because obviously the CPU designs are closed source) and rely on Apple for tooling

AMD and Intel chip designs are proprietary but anyone can write an x86 compiler based on the ISA docs. Of course, the CPU vendors may have proprietary extensions to enhance performance of specific tasks but a basic executable should work just fine.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

However, I believe the gaming industry is always the bottleneck - so a swift worldwide switch to ARM won't be possible

The gaming industry didn’t affect Apple’s plan to transition, in less than 12 months, from PowerPC to Intel. I don’t think it’ll factor in here, either. Folks that need Intel will keep their old system for a few more years, those that don’t care will buy whatever Apple’s selling, not even caring what the processor is. And they’ll Facebook (Safari), and Photo and iMovie like they always have.

 

[awesomedeluxe]

The gaming industry didn’t affect Apple’s plan to transition, in less than 12 months, from PowerPC to Intel. I don’t think it’ll factor in here, either. Folks that need Intel will keep their old system for a few more years, those that don’t care will buy whatever Apple’s selling, not even caring what the processor is. And they’ll Facebook (Safari), and Photo and iMovie like they always have.

To add to this. Apple is transitioning to the architecture that forms the backbone of the Apple Arcade service. We've heard rumors about an Apple game controller which should be the final piece of the puzzle.

Once the entire Apple ecosystem is on ARM, and supports a high quality game controller with a W3 chip, Apple will begin making a serious play for Apple Arcade content. With this on the horizon, game markets like Steam - which do not drive Apple Arcade subscriptions - will not be a concern to them.

Steam will come, as will MoltenVK: they are competitors and will fight to maintain relevance on Apple's platform on their own initiative. They will do this and do it quickly because their market incentive is to reestablish themselves before Apple Arcade gains more traction.

 

[imnotkleenex]

To add to this. Apple is transitioning to the architecture that forms the backbone of the Apple Arcade service. We've heard rumors about an Apple game controller which should be the final piece of the puzzle.

Once the entire Apple ecosystem is on ARM, and supports a high quality game controller with a W3 chip, Apple will begin making a serious play for Apple Arcade content. With this on the horizon, game markets like Steam - which do not drive Apple Arcade subscriptions - will not be a concern to them.

Steam will come, as will MoltenVK: they are competitors and will fight to maintain relevance on Apple's platform on their own initiative. They will do this and do it quickly because their market incentive is to reestablish themselves before Apple Arcade gains more traction.

Apple Arcade doesn’t contain “real” games though and is a far cry from what you can get on Steam. Switching to ARM for good probably means Apple will never have a real gaming platform except a little something for casuals. The only real gaming solutions will become xCloud, PSNow and GeForce Now, all streaming based.

 

[fokmik]

So its happening at WWDC
macbook pro first with ARM..i really thought that the first one will be the 12" MB or macbook air
So we can expect Macbook Pro, Over-ear headphones and air tags...lets hope for iMacs too

 

[Ma2k5]

It feels ARM MacBooks have been “predicted” since 2014 for me or earlier, but it looks like it’s finally happening. I will say I am surprised, I guess I expected it to come a couple of years later at least. Saying that, we don’t have a release date yet.

 

[Icehart]

My plain is to buy the last MBP 16" with Intel processor b4 the arms comes out

You can get it cheaper when ARM Macbook Pro comes out.
I think Apple will probably maintain two Macbook Pros, one with Intel chips and another with its own custom processor.

 

[DanMan619]

Apple Arcade doesn’t contain “real” games though and is a far cry from what you can get on Steam. Switching to ARM for good probably means Apple will never have a real gaming platform except a little something for casuals. The only real gaming solutions will become xCloud, PSNow and GeForce Now, all streaming based.

That strategy works very well for Nintendo. Nintendo doesn't have to play the game Sony/Microsoft do and they sell more units. Especially back in the days of the Wii. They can very much be a "real" gaming platform while focusing on a casual audience. Also, who's to say "real" games won't come later? I don't think they'd bother making a controller for casual games that are already playable without it now.

 

[UltimateSyn]

Man oh man I am EXCITED for WWDC. Flexing a day of work and working Saturday so I can have Monday the 22nd off to watch the conference from home.

 

[imnotkleenex]

That strategy works very well for Nintendo. Nintendo doesn't have to play the game Sony/Microsoft do and they sell more units. Especially back in the days of the Wii. They can very much be a "real" gaming platform while focusing on a casual audience. Also, who's to say "real" games won't come later? I don't think they'd bother making a controller for casual games that are already playable without it now.

I somehow doubt most will really care to make their games work on MacOS ARM processors when it’s such a small market. Eve Blizzard wasn’t bothered to make Overwatch work on the platform running on Intel.

I’m still excited to see what the future holds for Mac on ARM though. I was there say 1 for Intel Macs and will most likely be doing the same for this next transition.

 

[SocialKonstruct]

To add to this. Apple is transitioning to the architecture that forms the backbone of the Apple Arcade service. We've heard rumors about an Apple game controller which should be the final piece of the puzzle.

Once the entire Apple ecosystem is on ARM, and supports a high quality game controller with a W3 chip, Apple will begin making a serious play for Apple Arcade content. With this on the horizon, game markets like Steam - which do not drive Apple Arcade subscriptions - will not be a concern to them.

Steam will come, as will MoltenVK: they are competitors and will fight to maintain relevance on Apple's platform on their own initiative. They will do this and do it quickly because their market incentive is to reestablish themselves before Apple Arcade gains more traction.

Not useful because unless by a miracle that Fallout 76 appears in the Arcade store I am not giving up my Surface Book 2 and Alienware laptops.

 

[AttilaTheHun]

You can get it cheaper when ARM Macbook Pro comes out.
I think Apple will probably maintain two Macbook Pros, one with Intel chips and another with its own custom processor.

I will not take the chance, I will choose the 16" with max option,
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Not useful because unless by a miracle that Fallout 76 appears in the Arcade store I am not giving up my Surface Book 2 and Alienware laptops.

I don't understand you buy top of the line computer for games? if game is the deal Apple should live the computer for those who need it and build a very strong game consul for gamers, I don't play games.

 

[kaans]

Haha, not sure how to feel about this on a personal level as I'm getting my new 16" Macbook tomorrow - but at the same time, it could be the device that will be remembered as the last Samurai

Even the switch to 64-bit-only affected so many people it seems, while looking for a device to buy, I've seen many 16" Macbook's for sale, the reason was that the buyers could no longer use their (assumably old?) music equipment that only had 32-bit support

 

[AttilaTheHun]

Haha, not sure how to feel about this on a personal level as I'm getting my new 16" Macbook tomorrow - but at the same time, it could be the device that will be remembered as the last Samurai

Even the switch to 64-bit-only affected so many people it seems, while looking for a device to buy, I've seen many 16" Macbook's for sale, the reason was that the buyers could no longer use their (assumably old?) music equipment that only had 32-bit support

Apple Card soon will let me buy without interest plus 3% money back and 4th of July come time to buy as you say the last Mohican

 

[kaans]

My only regret is not aiming for higher specs as you will do, but I wanted a Silver machine with a US English keyboard, and bought the only unopened base i9 one in Turkey

I might buy a higher spec'ed machine down the line, maybe locally in the second hand market, and move it's motherboard to my own machine - 32gb ram / 8gb gpu ram would make this device feel a tad bit better, I open virtual machines with VirtualBox from time to time, sometimes 16gb ram gets crammed - especially the $100 8gb upgrade is a no brainer, while the ram is just luxury

On the bright side, I'm an indie game developer, and it's better I have 4gb ram, so I can be gpu ram conscious

 

[awesomedeluxe]

Apple Arcade doesn’t contain “real” games though and is a far cry from what you can get on Steam. Switching to ARM for good probably means Apple will never have a real gaming platform except a little something for casuals. The only real gaming solutions will become xCloud, PSNow and GeForce Now, all streaming based.

Not useful because unless by a miracle that Fallout 76 appears in the Arcade store I am not giving up my Surface Book 2 and Alienware laptops.

This isn't the goal of Apple Arcade on ARMbooks. The question is whether the enormous throng of iPhone game developers and indie content creators more broadly will be interesting in adapting their titles for the platform. It is a $5/month service that Apple probably takes 30% of and everyone else gets to share.

There is literally not enough revenue to attract AAA developers like Bethesda Game Studios to the platform, and let me stress that when I say "triple A" I'm referring exclusively to the budget since it's been about ten years since Bethesda released a title to that kind of acclaim 😘

 

[psingh01]

I can’t wait to hear the official plans, but I’m glad I have a 16” MBP with intel. In 5 years when it’s time to replace, I’ll see where things are at. I like the flexibility of running windows in boot camp or VMware.

 

[DanMan619]

I can’t wait to hear the official plans, but I’m glad I have a 16” MBP with intel. In 5 years when it’s time to replace, I’ll see where things are at. I like the flexibility of running windows in boot camp or VMware.

That reminds me. Microsoft put out the Surface Pro X last November. It had a custom ARM chip (the SQ1 chip) that Microsoft made in collaboration with Qualcomm that was based on Qualcomm Snapdragon chips (used in Android phones). It ran the full desktop version of Windows 10 coded for ARM. So that makes me wonder what that could imply for Boot Camp with Windows 10 being available on ARM Macs fairly early on (though maybe not day 1) in the transition since the ARM version of Windows 10 already exists.

 

[SvenLorenz1975]

My plain is to buy the last MBP 16" with Intel processor b4 the arms comes out

Same here, so I really hope they'll do one final update to the Intel 16" this fall.

 

[alex0002]

For example, there are thousands of packages on the brew package manager, with developers who may or may not be active. Who will recompile these to work on MacARM? How difficult will this process be?

I'm pretty sure there will be an XCode, including clang available for macOSarm64 (or whatever it gets called) and people will update most of those Brew packages. Many of the libraries that brew packages require, come from brew itself.

Apple has a vested interest in making macOSarm64 the preferred platform for developers - or at least those developers developing for other ARM (e.g. iOS and iPadOS) targets.

Linux packages through Brew, can hardly be seen as something that would impact many users? But in general Linux supports ARM and you could compile a package from source I guess?

This is the way it works if you run Brew on an older unsupported macOS right now (e.g. Sierra), there is no Bottle, so the Brew package manager downloads the source and it gets complied before installing.

Having said all that, like several others in this thread, I'm probably going to be getting a 16" Intel MBP when the time is right.

 

[gnomeisland]

To add to this. Apple is transitioning to the architecture that forms the backbone of the Apple Arcade service. We've heard rumors about an Apple game controller which should be the final piece of the puzzle.

Once the entire Apple ecosystem is on ARM, and supports a high quality game controller with a W3 chip, Apple will begin making a serious play for Apple Arcade content. With this on the horizon, game markets like Steam - which do not drive Apple Arcade subscriptions - will not be a concern to them.

Steam will come, as will MoltenVK: they are competitors and will fight to maintain relevance on Apple's platform on their own initiative. They will do this and do it quickly because their market incentive is to reestablish themselves before Apple Arcade gains more traction.

I agree, in fact game developers may be what drives this transition since the iOS market is so big. They either have an iOS version that they can port up to the Mac, or justify porting across the macARM because the jump to iOS ARM is a relatively small one which will improve their sales (even if the GFX require the latest A-series processors, which I think has discouraged some).

Apple will lose some customers and if you are one of those customers that sucks. It really does. I've been there are look very seriously at switching platforms—at least for work—a couple years ago. Inertia is really the only thing that kept me on the Mac (got my first Mac in 1995, been Apple exclusive since 2004). However, I think this transition will be very good for the Mac, and not just in processor performance. Apple is still mostly a phone company. I think the T2 chip is largely a kludge to bring over some of their phone innovations. macARM will mean we'll see a lot more innovation and development in traditional computers again. Personally, I think its a very exciting time!
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Same here, so I really hope they'll do one final update to the Intel 16" this fall.

Probably. My memory is that they did that with the PPC PowerBooks right before the switch to Intel (which initially weren't any faster).