ARM based MacBook Pro discussion [merged]

[nicho]

Going on the pricing bit. I really could see it going either way. I could maybe see Apple (especially with recent actions like having the 16" MBP replace the 15" in price and not have it be a jacked up Pro Premium product like they easily could have done) passing on the price savings to the customer, even if just a bit. Like you said they could use that lower pricing to lure in people to try ARM so that people taking a chance on an unproven chip won't be paying a premium to do so. However, i could also see Apple presenting confidently that ARM would be much greater in brute strength and efficiency over Intel. If they advertise/communicate/prove that effectively, people who need the power will be willing to pay more for it i would think. Plus with new tech like this getting introduced into a product, it usually starts high priced to make back the R&D dollars spent on it and then comes down in price later. It could go either way.

Is it new tech or is it an expansion of something they've been working on for at least 10 years?

I think in terms of pricing, base level price points would be maintained... but the top end configurations may come down in price with processor upgrades no longer being bundled with ram and storage upgrades for stock configs.

At the bottom end, eventually "last year's" processor could be used to reduce prices in the MacBook Air.

But I don't see huge potential for differentiated performance within product lines, because so far Apple seems to have favoured economies of scale. To pull it off, Apple would have to be confident they could keep ahead of Intel's top performing processors (i7/i9) at each level of power draw but price them against the budget models (i3).

 

[Macalicious2011]

If going across the whole line, will this see a radical shift in price points and upgrade paths?

ARM Macbooks will unlikely be cheaper than Intel counter parts.

A 256GB iPad Pro cost as much as a MacBook Pro.

 

[AFPBoy]

But the questions are definitely

Great questions. I know it's dangerous to go against Jon Prosser, but I just can't believe that Apple will first release an ARM MacBook Pro. There's got to be overhead on x86 emulation, if not at least problems in emulation. And if only Metal apps are supported, won't that narrow down the number of compatible apps?

I still see the first ARM notebook being a "replacement" for the 12" MacBook. That line seemed to come and go so fast, perhaps because it didn't sell well, perhaps because Apple didn't want to bother to "thicken" it with a new Magic keyboard. Maybe the new laptop will be 13" with thinner bezels, maybe it will be faster than the 16" MacBook Pro in certain benchmarks.

Or maybe I'm just an x86 fanboy

 

[nicho]

ARM Macbooks will unlikely be cheaper than Intel counter parts.

A 256GB iPad Pro cost as much as a MacBook Pro.

Thats, well, just not true.

 

[AFPBoy]

To pull it off, Apple would have to be confident they could keep ahead of Intel's top performing processors (i7/i9) at each level of power draw but price them against the budget models (i3).

Please don't forget Ryzen. They may not have the production capacity of Intel nor may the idle power draw be as good yet, but their speed and core count is pretty impressive.
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ARM Macbooks will unlikely be cheaper than Intel counter parts.

A 256GB iPad Pro cost as much as a MacBook Pro.

Thats, well, just not true.

Depends if you include an iPad keyboard or not.

 

[DHagan4755]

Ok let's start talking about pricing for ARM MacBooks. Just for fun. Originally I said I was hoping for a $699 MacBook Air but thinking about it some more, I don't know if that's possible...sooooo....


MacBook Air - 13.3-inch display
A14 processor, 8GB RAM
256GB - $799
512GB - $999

MacBook Pro - 14.1-inch Mini LED display
A14x 12-core processor
8GB RAM / 256GB / ARM graphics - $1,099
8GB RAM / 512GB / ARM graphics - $1,299
16GB RAM / 512GB / AMD graphics - $1,599
16GB RAM / 1TB / AMD graphics - $1,799

MacBook Pro - 16" Mini LED display
A14x 12-core processor
16GB RAM / 512GB / AMD graphics - $1,999

 

[Falhófnir]

Ok let's start talking about pricing for ARM MacBooks. Just for fun. Originally I said I was hoping for a $699 MacBook Air but thinking about it some more, I don't know if that's possible...sooooo....


MacBook Air - 13.3-inch display
A14 processor, 8GB RAM
256GB - $799
512GB - $999

MacBook Pro - 14.1-inch Mini LED display
A14x 12-core processor
8GB RAM / 256GB / ARM graphics - $1,099
8GB RAM / 512GB / ARM graphics - $1,299
16GB RAM / 512GB / AMD graphics - $1,599
16GB RAM / 1TB / AMD graphics - $1,799

MacBook Pro - 16" Mini LED display
A14x 12-core processor
16GB RAM / 512GB / AMD graphics - $1,999

If they could get the 16" entry price back down to $1,999 that would be great. I don't think they can do it and include dedicated graphics, though, as they need to find $400 or so from somewhere. The $200-250 graphics chip would probably be crucial to that, so it depends on how powerful Apple's iGPU is. The A12X already has console level graphics performance, so releasing an iGPU only model again is certainly a plausible scenario.

 

[DanMan619]

Is it new tech or is it an expansion of something they've been working on for at least 10 years?

I think you could argue it's a bit of both. It's an expansion on something they've been working on but it'll be an expansion of that thing into a new class of product it's never been in before operating at a level it never has before. Apple's only been using "mobile" ARM chips for the last however many years, we're about to see the first iteration of beefier mobile chips for laptops and eventually "desktop" ARM chips that will be functionally different and assumed far more powerful than what they've developed for the mobile processors. It's not just going to be an A14 iPhone chip slapped into a Macbook Pro as is.

 

[Macalicious2011]

^^
Indeed. Apple will introduce ARM chips that are capable of running desktop applications with equivalent or greater performance then intel SoC.

If ARM based Macs will have a performance advantage than expect Apple to charge accordingly.

iPad OS, mouse support and the Magic keyboard hints at an inevitable ARM based surface competitor which will likely rejuvenate Mac sales.

Apple will achieve what Intel failed to with Intel Atom. *former netbook owner*.

 

[littlepud]

Less than 2 years ago I wasn't sure that a move to Apple's in-house ARM chips would be a good idea, but now I'm sold.

Intel x86 compatibility for Boot Camp and VMware/Parallels is less of a concern for me. Instead of running Windows VMs directly on the local machine, it may be easier or more cost effective to just use AWS or Azure for the times I need to run a (non-gaming) Windows app.

 

[KPOM]

Great questions. I know it's dangerous to go against Jon Prosser, but I just can't believe that Apple will first release an ARM MacBook Pro. There's got to be overhead on x86 emulation, if not at least problems in emulation. And if only Metal apps are supported, won't that narrow down the number of compatible apps?

I still see the first ARM notebook being a "replacement" for the 12" MacBook. That line seemed to come and go so fast, perhaps because it didn't sell well, perhaps because Apple didn't want to bother to "thicken" it with a new Magic keyboard. Maybe the new laptop will be 13" with thinner bezels, maybe it will be faster than the 16" MacBook Pro in certain benchmarks.

Or maybe I'm just an x86 fanboy

I was a big fan of the 12” MacBook and would like to see it return. There are lots of possible reasons why it didn’t sell well (performance, the keyboard, a single port), and to me, the lack of a true ultraportable is a gap in Apple’s lineup. They have essentially 3 models of 13” notebook (Air, base Pro, Ice Lake Pro) with a lot of overlap. If they made a 12” MacBook Air at 2.4 lbs (same weight as the old 11.6”) with the i3, 2 ports, and the thickness of the 13” Air with the footprint of the 12” MacBook, I think it would be popular.

I also wonder if the first ARM MacBook will have an Intel processor in a secondary capacity. IOW, a little bit like how the current models have the T2, except in this case, the “T3” would be the primary chip. Could they include a dual-core Ice Lake i3 that is mostly disabled, but just there to run legacy code that can’t be translated using a “Rosetta” approach?

 

[AFPBoy]

I also wonder if the first ARM MacBook will have an Intel processor in a secondary capacity. IOW, a little bit like how the current models have the T2, except in this case, the “T3” would be the primary chip. Could they include a dual-core Ice Lake i3 that is mostly disabled, but just there to run legacy code that can’t be translated using a “Rosetta” approach?

I've seen that mentioned before as well, but wouldn't that jack up the component cost quite a bit (A1X chip plus an Intel chip)?

 

[matram]

So far Apple has always made a clean break from the old to push people to the new technology. Think about USB-C as an example.

So I think at most we will get x86 emulation, possibly with poor performance. I think some high end systems, like Mac Pro, will stay on Intel, the rest will rapidly migrate to ARM.

 

[pcdtech]

I know it's dangerous to go against Jon Prosser, but I just can't believe that Apple will first release an ARM MacBook Pro.

When did Prosser mention that Apple will first release an ARM MBP?

 

[supertiffany]

ARM Macbooks will unlikely be cheaper than Intel counter parts.

A 256GB iPad Pro cost as much as a MacBook Pro.

the iPad Pro has all the pro features that makes it expensive

touch screen
rear camera
face id
promotion technology
quad speakers

if you remove all of those

just a simple retina macbook with touch id then apple can make ARM macbooks cheaper than intel counterparts.
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jon prosser never said that MBP will be the first arm macbook

he said it is most likely the 12 inches a separate macbook from the air and the pro

 

[DHagan4755]

he said it is most likely the 12 inches a separate macbook from the air and the pro

I think this most likely a special "developer edition" MacBook for developers to test their Mac apps on ARM.

 

[awesomedeluxe]

This occurred to me recently - do you guys thing Apple will also make their own GPU for the 16" laptop and iMacs?

I haven't read anything about it, but it makes sense to me. How bad could 16-20 A14 GPU cores and an 8GB HBM2E stack be?

 

[subjonas]

This occurred to me recently - do you guys thing Apple will also make their own GPU for the 16" laptop and iMacs?

I haven't read anything about it, but it makes sense to me. How bad could 16-20 A14 GPU cores and an 8GB HBM2E stack be?

I didn’t even think about how the arm transition would work with powerful graphics needs. I assume amd (or nvidia) would not be compatible, in which case I guess Apple would need to ramp up their own graphics to be able to compete. Would it take the form of dedicated gpus or would Apple stick to system on a chip-only? No more egpus then?

 

[littlepud]

I didn’t even think about how the arm transition would work with powerful graphics needs. I assume amd (or nvidia) would not be compatible, in which case I guess Apple would need to ramp up their own graphics to be able to compete. Would it take the form of dedicated gpus or would Apple stick to system on a chip-only? No more egpus then?

AFAIK AMD and/or Nvidia GPUs aren't tied to x86-64 architecture. Their only real dependency is on the availability of a PCI-E interconnect to the CPU. That being said, drivers would probably need to be re-written from scratch.

 

[KarmaRocket]

Samsung will be using AMD's RDNA with their Exynos mobile chip. Apple will more than likely go their own route with their AX chips, but Apple already has a relationship with AMD for their GPU needs. No reason to think they couldn't do the same thing.

AMD RDNA-Infused Samsung SoC Benchmarks Obliterate Galaxy S20 Graphics

 

[awesomedeluxe]

I didn’t even think about how the arm transition would work with powerful graphics needs. I assume amd (or nvidia) would not be compatible, in which case I guess Apple would need to ramp up their own graphics to be able to compete. Would it take the form of dedicated gpus or would Apple stick to system on a chip-only? No more egpus then?

AFAIK AMD and/or Nvidia GPUs aren't tied to x86-64 architecture. Their only real dependency is on the availability of a PCI-E interconnect to the CPU. That being said, drivers would probably need to be re-written from scratch.

Samsung will be using AMD's RDNA with their Exynos mobile chip. Apple will more than likely go their own route with their AX chips, but Apple already has a relationship with AMD for their GPU needs. No reason to think they couldn't do the same thing.

AMD RDNA-Infused Samsung SoC Benchmarks Obliterate Galaxy S20 Graphics

They definitely could use AMD. I'm just wondering if they would.

Thinking about the design for say, the 16" MBP, using something like the 5500M in current models would yield a pretty unbalanced design. The 5500M has a TDP of 50W. That's not the maximum heat it sustains for just a couple minutes - it actually gets much hotter than that. It's usually paired with a 45W chip, but the A14 is just not going to scale to 45W. Let's take a look.

Trying to scale up the A14 is hard. Extrapolating what we know about the A13: it has two high perf cores and four GPU cores. It uses 6.2W under heavy load. The high perf cores are at the far end of the power-efficiency curve, so clocking them higher does not yield great results.

So let's say a high perf lightning core is using 1W under heavy load. In building a firestorm core, we'll put all the benefits of the 5nm process into clock speed rather than power efficiency. TSMC is claiming 15% to clockspeeds, so around 3GHz. Let's just shove 16 firestorm cores in there. 16 cores at 3GHz. This is... a 16W part.

Now I guess you can put an iGPU in there with 8 cores and have a 24W part. But you are still designing your chassis around the external GPU. It uses more than twice as much power as everything else in the machine. Also, it might not perform that much better than your iGPU.*

What happens if Apple builds their own GPU? Let's bring the core count down to 12 and split the difference on clockspeed and efficiency. 2.9GHz @ 10.2W. No iGPU, because we're great at power management and trust our personally-designed dGPU. That's going to have 16 cores, and we're going to use the whole of 5nm for power efficiency. 11.2W, 15.2 after we add in a stack of 8GB HBM2E. We can make a much thinner machine with this. We're at the precipice of a fanless design.

Now, if someone could please come in and explain why this conjecture is wrong, I would really appreciate that.

*Benchmarks comparing mobile parts to laptop parts are highly speculative and may not reflect real-world usage. The author assumes no responsibility for unrealistic expectations that may be created as a result of viewing isolated benchmarks.

 

[Falhófnir]

I didn’t even think about how the arm transition would work with powerful graphics needs. I assume amd (or nvidia) would not be compatible, in which case I guess Apple would need to ramp up their own graphics to be able to compete. Would it take the form of dedicated gpus or would Apple stick to system on a chip-only? No more egpus then?

There's theoretically no reason why an AMD or Nvidia GPU couldn't be paired with an Apple CPU, at the end of the day Apple will be 100% in control of the design so it's fully in their power to make that work.

Someone pointed out recently Apple renewed its relationship with Imagination Technologies which specialises in mobile (Phone/ tablet Arm) GPUs, so maybe that is in aid of creating something more potent for these machines?

 

[DHagan4755]

We can make a much thinner machine with this. We're at the precipice of a fanless design.

Your comments are well thought out. It's made me envision a thinner 16 inch MacBook Pro. The base of the machine could have a few millimeters shaved off by removing the tapering. It will probably look more like the iPad Pro. Hopefully with the reduction in tapering this will allow for more space in the display for a better camera & Face ID? All that + mini LEDs, the battery life should be great!

 

[KarmaRocket]

Apple could just do what Microsoft is doing with their Surface Book line. The screen would hold the AX chip part while the base holds the dGPU. They can still make it almost as thin as the current MBP 13/16.

Whether they make it detachable or not depends on what they do the with OS and the hinge. Hopefully they will make a hybrid OS that is suitable for touch and desktop. Slowly updating iPadOS might not be the best move with Microsoft coming out with Win10X and Google with Fuschia (If Google ever releases it)

GPU might finally be a priority for Apple. With their push for gaming (Apple Arcade) and their new commitment towards creative professionals, we might see more GPU improvements. The eventual arrival in AR (glasses) might progressively move them towards VR, that needs a good GPU to perform well.

I think we'll find out more at WWDC this year. Interesting to see what Apple will do.

 

[CmdrLaForge]

I really expect Apple to design ARM CPUs specific for laptops and desktops and doesn't re-use phone CPUs.