Can we accurately predict M3 Pro, Max and Ultra speeds when M3 base chip is released?

[MayaUser]

Gurman even this close he keeps the claims with M3 M3Pro and M3 Max, and users are right here, M3 Max will be "scary fast" and it has 99% chances to be an 16c SoC 12+4
But at this point, i think the 14" Macbook pro will not have this full M3 Max 12+4, or it will be limited in freq like the M2 Max is compared to the M2 max from 16" Mbp/Mac Studio
what do you think @leman ? Since the 14" Mbp had an "injured" M2 Max in it i guess this will be the case also here with the M3 Max, of course IF Apple doesnt do little things inside with bigger fans and smaller battery inside
But at this point i think even an crippled M3 Max will hard outperformed an M3 Pro

 

[MayaUser]

SoCs	%Diff (Single Core)	%Diff (Multi-Core)	%Diff (Metal)
M3 vs M1	+43%	+57%	+83%
M3 Pro vs M1 Pro	+43%	+57%	+70%
M3 Max vs M1 Max	+45%	+59%	+69%
M3 Ultra vs M1 Ultra	+46%	+59%	+83%

Now, do for the sake of talking an M3 Max 12P+4E vs M1 Max difference in multiC

 

[MayaUser]

Just as reference from Mark G

 

[leman]

what do you think @leman ?

I think that the 16” chassis could easily handle 12P cores running at full 3.8ghz. That’s what, 70 watts?

 

[MayaUser]

I think that the 16” chassis could easily handle 12P cores running at full 3.8ghz. That’s what, 70 watts?

yes,but...i was wondering if the 14" can in the current stage of thermals

 

[leman]

yes,but...i was wondering if the 14" can in the current stage of thermals

Sorry, I didn’t read your question attentively. No, I don’t think that 12P cores will make much sense in the 14” chassis.

 

[donth8]

Gurman said This today: “Another M3 Pro chip seen in testing by developers has 14 main processing cores, including 10 for high performance and four for efficiency, and 30 graphics cores.”

Maybe that Pro chip would be the highest available in the 14 inch MBP?

 

[MayaUser]

Gurman said This today: “Another M3 Pro chip seen in testing by developers has 14 main processing cores, including 10 for high performance and four for efficiency, and 30 graphics cores.”

Maybe that Pro chip would be the highest available in the 14 inch MBP?

30 gpu cores or 20 from the M3 Pro?

 

[MayaUser]

Yes, 30 gpu cores from M3 Pro

"
One baseline version in the works has 12 main processor cores, made up of six high-performance blocks and six high-efficiency cores. Generally speaking, the more cores you have, the more powerful the chip. The product also has 18 cores for processing graphics […]
Another M3 Pro chip seen in testing by developers has 14 main processing cores, including 10 for high performance and four for efficiency, and 30 graphics cores."

And M3 Max
"There are multiple versions of the M3 Max in testing, including a top-end version with 16 main processing cores — 12 for high performance and four for efficiency — and 40 graphics cores"

 

[donth8]

30 gpu cores or 20 from the M3 Pro?

It was the quote I got from the 9to5mac story so not sure if it’s a mistake since I don’t have access to his newsletters.

 

[MayaUser]

Gurman said This today: “Another M3 Pro chip seen in testing by developers has 14 main processing cores, including 10 for high performance and four for efficiency, and 30 graphics cores.”

Maybe that Pro chip would be the highest available in the 14 inch MBP?

Probably and i think it will be more than enough... with that kind of power

 

[MayaUser]

At this stage, I wonder if the new M3 Pro with 14cpu cores and 30 gpu cores it will out perform the M1 Max in general or some specifics tasks/apps

 

[MayaUser]

M3 Pro in apps that will take advantage of ray tracing, probably will be twice as fast as M1 Pro?! And i bet Apple will show this chart on Monday

 

[donth8]

I’m starting to think this M3 generation will be truly special. What if Apple finally implements boost for better single core like Intel and AMD?

 

[MayaUser]

Yes, me too...i dont know if i prefer turbo boost or core clock freq based on the device envelope...3.78Ghz on an M3 Macbook Air and 4.2Ghz on an 16" Mbp and why not an 4.5Ghz on a Mac Studio/Mac Pro
But i wonder if Apple will present an app/game that can use ray tracing to show us what even an base 24" M3 iMac can do compared to the first M1 imac

 

[tis100]

Just as reference from Mark G
View attachment 2303067

This morning Gurman mentioned[1] two types of CPU configurations for the M3 Pro: a 12 Core CPU (6P+6E) and a 14 Core CPU (10P+4E). I find the 12 Core CPU (6P+6E) configuration a bit odd because he also said in the same article that the M3 and M3 Max would have 4 efficiency cores. Why would only the M3 Pro have 6 efficiency cores?

What I could see is 6 performances cores in the the base M3, which would make it a 10 Core CPU (6P+4E). But it is also possible that the base M3 sticks with the 8 core CPU (4P+4E) to better differentiate the base M3 from the M3 Pro. And finally it is possible that both the 8 core and 10 core CPU options will be available.

If Gurman is correct, then these will be the most probable CPU configurations for the M3:

Level	M2	M3
Base	8 core CPU (4P+4E)	8 core CPU (4P+4E)
Pro	10 core CPU (6P+4E) or 12 core CPU (8P+4E)	14 core CPU (10P+4E) or 16 core CPU (12P+4E)
Max	12 core CPU (8P+4E)	16 core CPU (12P+4E)
Ultra	24 core CPU (16P+8E)	32 core CPU (24P+8E)

Now, do for the sake of talking an M3 Max 12P+4E vs M1 Max difference in multiC

For the M3 Max with a 12 core CPU (8P+4E) I estimated a Geekbench multi-core score of 19,346, which is higher than the M1 Ultra 20 core CPU (16P+8E) at 17,802.

To estimate how an M3 Max with a 16 core CPU (12+4E) would score, we need to find examples of how adding performance cores affects the Geekbench multi-core score.

SoC	CPU Cores	Geekbench Multi-Core Score	Difference in Geekbench Multi-Core Score by Adding 2 P-Cores
M2 Pro	12 (8P+4E)	14,251	+2,115
M2 Pro	10 (6P+4E)	12,136	-

SoC	CPU Cores	Geekbench Multi-Core Score	Difference in Geekbench Multi-Core Score by Adding 2 P-Cores
M1 Pro	10 (8P+2E)	12,202	+1,899
M2 Pro	8 (6P+2E)	10,303	-

For both the M1 Pro and M2 Pro, adding 2 P-Cores gave a boost of about 2000 in the Geekbench multi-core score.

Please note that cores do not scale linearly, but for a best case scenario we'll say that adding 4-P cores will add about 4000 to the score.

So we will estimate our hypothetical M3 Max with a 16 core CPU (12P+4E) to have a Geekbench multi-core score of 23,346, which is higher than the M2 Ultra 24 core CPU (16P+8E) at 21,316.


Here is the summary of how the M3 Max with a 16 core CPU (12P+4E) would stack up against the M1/M2 Max/Ultra in multi-core performance:

SoCs	%Diff (Multi-core)
M3 Max vs M1 Max	+92%
M3 Max vs M1 Ultra	+31%
M3 Max vs M2 Max	+61%
M3 Max vs M2 Ultra	+10%

[1] https://archive.ph/TYrjf

 

[MayaUser]

This morning Gurman mentioned[1] two types of CPU configurations for the M3 Pro: a 12 Core CPU (6P+6E) and a 14 Core CPU (10P+4E). I find the 12 Core CPU (6P+6E) configuration a bit odd because he also said in the same article that the M3 and M3 Max would have 4 efficiency cores. Why would only the M3 Pro have 6 efficiency cores?

What I could see is 6 performances cores in the the base M3, which would make it a 10 Core CPU (6P+4E). But it is also possible that the base M3 sticks with the 8 core CPU (4P+4E) to better differentiate the base M3 from the M3 Pro. And finally it is possible that both the 8 core and 10 core CPU options will be available.

If Gurman is correct, then these will be the most probable CPU configurations for the M3:

Level	M2	M3
Base	8 core CPU (4P+4E)	8 core CPU (4P+4E)
Pro	10 core CPU (6P+4E) or 12 core CPU (8P+4E)	14 core CPU (10P+4E) or 16 core CPU (12P+4E)
Max	12 core CPU (8P+4E)	16 core CPU (12P+4E)
Ultra	24 core CPU (16P+8E)	32 core CPU (24P+8E)

For the M3 Max with a 12 core CPU (8P+4E) I estimated a Geekbench multi-core score of 19,346, which is higher than the M1 Ultra 20 core CPU (16P+8E) at 17,802.

To estimate how an M3 Max with a 16 core CPU (12+4E) would score, we need to find examples of how adding performance cores affects the Geekbench multi-core score.

SoC	CPU Cores	Geekbench Multi-Core Score	Difference in Geekbench Multi-Core Score by Adding 2 P-Cores
M2 Pro	12 (8P+4E)	14,251	+2,115
M2 Pro	10 (6P+4E)	12,136	-

SoC	CPU Cores	Geekbench Multi-Core Score	Difference in Geekbench Multi-Core Score by Adding 2 P-Cores
M1 Pro	10 (8P+2E)	12,202	+1,899
M2 Pro	8 (6P+2E)	10,303	-

For both the M1 Pro and M2 Pro, adding 2 P-Cores gave a boost of about 2000 in the Geekbench multi-core score.

Please note that cores do not scale linearly, but for a best case scenario we'll say that adding 4-P cores will add about 4000 to the score.

So we will estimate our hypothetical M3 Max with a 16 core CPU (12P+4E) to have a Geekbench multi-core score of 23,346, which is higher than the M2 Ultra 24 core CPU (16P+8E) at 21,316.


Here is the summary of how the M3 Max with a 16 core CPU (12P+4E) would stack up against the M1/M2 Max/Ultra in multi-core performance:

SoCs	%Diff (Multi-core)
M3 Max vs M1 Max	+92%
M3 Max vs M1 Ultra	+31%
M3 Max vs M2 Max	+61%
M3 Max vs M2 Ultra	+10%

[1] https://archive.ph/TYrjf

Now, i know it is more harder since we dont have any additional info from the past...can you think how an M3/Pro/Max will performed in apps that can take advantage by ray tracing? Compared to M1/Pro/Max? Can we see an over 2 times better performance like Apple showed (its true in a video game i think)?

 

[MayaUser]

"The new 24-inch iMac — codenamed J433 and J434 — includes internal design changes "
I wonder if that means that they tweak and could place 2 bigger fans internally to give us an M3 Pro option also

 

[Chuckeee]

"The new 24-inch iMac — codenamed J433 and J434 — includes internal design changes "
I wonder if that means that they tweak and could place 2 bigger fans internally to give us an M3 Pro option also

They keep hinting (guessing) those “internal design changes” are only with regards to the mounting hinge. But to be fair, rumors and hints (guesses) seem to be changing on a daily basis

 

[MayaUser]

Right from his mouth...in case anybody still expecting M2...shoudlnt

So also an 32" iMac is in development for quite some time. So those who thought Mac Studi+Studio DIsplay will erase forever the larger imac are wrong (of course this bigger imac could never happen)

 

[leman]

This morning Gurman mentioned[1] two types of CPU configurations for the M3 Pro: a 12 Core CPU (6P+6E) and a 14 Core CPU (10P+4E). I find the 12 Core CPU (6P+6E) configuration a bit odd because he also said in the same article that the M3 and M3 Max would have 4 efficiency cores. Why would only the M3 Pro have 6 efficiency cores?

All of this is odd and difficult to believe. First, we know that Apple arranges their CPU cores in clusters of four, because this is optimal in many ways. They use a cluster of two cores in the A-series, but I find it difficult to believe that they will mix and match cluster sizes like that in a M-series chip. Second, we know that Apple uses one physical design for both Pro and Max, with partial tape-out for production (that is, they design one single die floor-plan and use “chops” of this floorpan for actual manufacturing). This is done to optimize costs and development time. What this means is that Max has to be a superset of Pro. It doesn’t make any sense for Pro to have 6 E-cores and for Max to have 4, because they share the same chip layout. So either Germany’s sources are confused or Apple is using different designs for these chips (which I find unlikely, because costs).

I think Pro will have exactly the same design as previously, with two clusters of P cores and one cluster of E cores. The Max might add one more cluster of P cores. Another possibility is that there are three die chops (e.g. two kinds of Pro with different number of CPU clusters), but that massively complicates logistics and raises costs, so I doubt Apple will go there.

What I am more interested in is whether Apple is going to use their new 2.5D packaging technology that combines a 3nm logic die with a 5nm cache/IO die in the new Pro/Max. That would make some impressive hardware and allow for more CPU and GPU cores. But I don’t think there is a high change for this to happen…

 

[altaic]

What I am more interested in is whether Apple is going to use their new 2.5D packaging technology that combines a 3nm logic die with a 5nm cache/IO die in the new Pro/Max.

I’m definitely looking forward to that as well, but I’d expect back-side metal first. Though, maybe they’d debut both at the same time. Since Apple is usually at the forefront of process tech, I suppose we may not get hints before either appears.

 

[thenewperson]

So either Germany’s sources are confused or Apple is using different designs for these chips (which I find unlikely, because costs).

Damn, must be a whole lot of money in the Apple rumour game for a whole country to be getting into it 😜

 

[donth8]

Ok so M3 Max is 80% faster than M1 Max, it might get a geekbench score over 22k which is faster than the M2 Ultra.

 

[tis100]

Wow, Apple's M3 announcement was quite disappointing. There were two things that stuck out:

1) TSMC really had trouble scaling their N3 process.
2) The M3 Pro was nerfed to try to improve profit margins of the Mac business.


Below is a summary of how my estimates differed from Apple's self-reported performance numbers:

SoCs	Estimated Multi-core Uplift (Pre-Announcement)	Apple Self-Reported Maximum CPU Uplift	Difference Between Estimated and Apple Self-Reported CPU Uplift	Estimated Metal Uplift (Pre-Announcement)	Apple Self-Reported Maximum CPU Uplift	Difference Between Estimated and Apple Self-Reported GPU Uplift
M3 vs M2	+35%	+20%	15%	+29%	+20%	9%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro	+35%	+0%	35%	+38%	+10%	28%
M3 Max vs M2 Max	+61%	+50%	11%	+39%	+20%	19%

From Apple's self-reported performance numbers we can generate new Geekbench estimates for the M3 series and compare them to my prior estimates:

SoC	Estimated Geekbench Multi-Core Score (Pre-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Multi-Core Score (Post-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Metal Score (Pre-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Metal Score (Post-Announcement)
M3	13,040	11,570	58,535	54,642
M3 Pro	19,164	14,211	111,990	89,394
M3 Max	23,346	21,735*	190,990	165,025

*Based on the new estimates, the M3 Max should have a multi-core score of around that of the M2 Ultra

And finally, we can show how poorly the M3 scaled relative to the A17 Pro versus the M2/A15 and M1/A14:

	M1 vs A14	M2 vs A15	M3 vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+86%	+75%	+60%
Metal	+102%	+130%	+102%

	M1 Pro vs A14	M2 Pro vs A15	M3 Pro vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+173%	+159%	+97%
Metal	+316%	+310%	+230%

	M1 Max vs A14	M2 Max vs A15	M3 Max vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+173%	+164%	+201%
Metal	+613%	+594%	+509%

While the M3 Max's relative multi-core performance was the best ever seen on an M series processor, the rest of the M3 processors' relative performance metrics were generally lower than previous generations.