Can we accurately predict M3 Pro, Max and Ultra speeds when M3 base chip is released?

[donth8]

Thank you for updating your tables. Hopefully by Monday we can get Geekbench results/leaks

 

[senttoschool]

Wow, Apple's M3 announcement was quite disappointing. There were two things that stuck out:

1) TSMC really had trouble scaling their N3 process.
2) The M3 Pro was nerfed to try to improve profit margins of the Mac business.


Below is a summary of how my estimates differed from Apple's self-reported performance numbers:

SoCs	Estimated Multi-core Uplift (Pre-Announcement)	Apple Self-Reported Maximum CPU Uplift	Difference Between Estimated and Apple Self-Reported CPU Uplift	Estimated Metal Uplift (Pre-Announcement)	Apple Self-Reported Maximum CPU Uplift	Difference Between Estimated and Apple Self-Reported GPU Uplift
M3 vs M2	+35%	+20%	15%	+29%	+20%	9%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro	+35%	+0%	35%	+38%	+10%	28%
M3 Max vs M2 Max	+61%	+50%	11%	+39%	+20%	19%

From Apple's self-reported performance numbers we can generate new Geekbench estimates for the M3 series and compare them to my prior estimates:

SoC	Estimated Geekbench Multi-Core Score (Pre-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Multi-Core Score (Post-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Metal Score (Pre-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Metal Score (Post-Announcement)
M3	13,040	11,570	58,535	54,642
M3 Pro	19,164	14,211	111,990	89,394
M3 Max	23,346	21,735*	190,990	165,025

*Based on the new estimates, the M3 Max should have a multi-core score of around that of the M2 Ultra

And finally, we can show how poorly the M3 scaled relative to the A17 Pro versus the M2/A15 and M1/A14:

	M1 vs A14	M2 vs A15	M3 vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+86%	+75%	+60%
Metal	+102%	+130%	+102%

	M1 Pro vs A14	M2 Pro vs A15	M3 Pro vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+173%	+159%	+97%
Metal	+316%	+310%	+230%

	M1 Max vs A14	M2 Max vs A15	M3 Max vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+173%	+164%	+201%
Metal	+613%	+594%	+509%

While the M3 Max's relative multi-core performance was the best ever seen on an M series processor, the rest of the M3 processors' relative performance metrics were generally lower than previous generations.

I think you can do estimated ST scores too as well based on Apple's P core performance chart. The results would be different depending on if you base it on "30% above M1" or "15% above M2".

 

[Queen6]

Wow, Apple's M3 announcement was quite disappointing. There were two things that stuck out:

1) TSMC really had trouble scaling their N3 process.
2) The M3 Pro was nerfed to try to improve profit margins of the Mac business.


Below is a summary of how my estimates differed from Apple's self-reported performance numbers:

SoCs	Estimated Multi-core Uplift (Pre-Announcement)	Apple Self-Reported Maximum CPU Uplift	Difference Between Estimated and Apple Self-Reported CPU Uplift	Estimated Metal Uplift (Pre-Announcement)	Apple Self-Reported Maximum CPU Uplift	Difference Between Estimated and Apple Self-Reported GPU Uplift
M3 vs M2	+35%	+20%	15%	+29%	+20%	9%
M3 Pro vs M2 Pro	+35%	+0%	35%	+38%	+10%	28%
M3 Max vs M2 Max	+61%	+50%	11%	+39%	+20%	19%

From Apple's self-reported performance numbers we can generate new Geekbench estimates for the M3 series and compare them to my prior estimates:

SoC	Estimated Geekbench Multi-Core Score (Pre-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Multi-Core Score (Post-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Metal Score (Pre-Announcement)	Estimated Geekbench Metal Score (Post-Announcement)
M3	13,040	11,570	58,535	54,642
M3 Pro	19,164	14,211	111,990	89,394
M3 Max	23,346	21,735*	190,990	165,025

*Based on the new estimates, the M3 Max should have a multi-core score of around that of the M2 Ultra

And finally, we can show how poorly the M3 scaled relative to the A17 Pro versus the M2/A15 and M1/A14:

	M1 vs A14	M2 vs A15	M3 vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+86%	+75%	+60%
Metal	+102%	+130%	+102%

	M1 Pro vs A14	M2 Pro vs A15	M3 Pro vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+173%	+159%	+97%
Metal	+316%	+310%	+230%

	M1 Max vs A14	M2 Max vs A15	M3 Max vs A17 Pro
Multi-Core	+173%	+164%	+201%
Metal	+613%	+594%	+509%

While the M3 Max's relative multi-core performance was the best ever seen on an M series processor, the rest of the M3 processors' relative performance metrics were generally lower than previous generations.

Suspect Apple is looking to M4 and needs to deliver a performance increase over M3. That and ever diminishing returns, then the parts fit the puzzle...

Q-6