China Expanding Government iPhone Ban

[Obioban]

China may not be as powerful as you think it is.

Consider this:
If China chose to invade Taiwan, imagine the impact of one missile hitting the 3 gorges damn. 400,000,000 people live downstream. The vast majority of China's industrial base is downstream of it. 90% of Chinese airborn forces are down stream. The vast majority of the PLA reserve is down stream. 16% of China's power production are that dam, and dams down stream of it. Chinese food production (already insufficient to meet the needs of their population) is dependent on irrigation based on it.

Taiwan has MANY (made in Taiwan, long range) missiles. Only one (correctly placed) needs to make it. There is not an air defense system made, by any country, that can stand up to a large enough saturation attack.

China invading Taiwan need not be a consequence free cake walk for China, even if no other countries get involved. It could be utterly devastating to China, even going against Taiwan alone.

 

[Obioban]

Remember this map...

China recently released an updated map where they identified some parts of Russia now as Chinese territory.

Does Russia have the right to defend itself?

 

[avz]

China recently released an updated map where they identified some parts of Russia now as Chinese territory.

Does Russia have the right to defend itself?

We've already covered quite well the nature of the subversive operations in this thread. When you say China keep in mind that it is not monolithic. There is a very strong pro-US lobby that will be very happy to have a conflict between Russia and China for the benefit of the United States.

The most dangerous thing in the world is the "superpowers dance". While a very ancient civilization China traditionally have chosen to "close itself" from the outside world and only trade with others if they have a need for it. So they are very new to the "dance" and you can see that they are very quickly "hitting a wall" and act like a child by stopping communication all together. For this reason Russia is covering the statesmanship competencies base for both Russia and China.

 

[Obioban]

We've already covered quite well the nature of the subversive operations in this thread. When you say China keep in mind that it is not monolithic. There is a very strong pro-US lobby that will be very happy to have a conflict between Russia and China for the benefit of the United States.

The most dangerous thing in the world is the "superpowers dance". While a very ancient civilization China traditionally have chosen to "close itself" from the outside world and only trade with others if they have a need for it. So they are very new to the "dance" and you can see that they are very quickly "hitting a wall" and act like a child by stopping communication all together. For this reason Russia is covering the statesmanship competencies base for both Russia and China.

China is fairly monolithic at this point, in terms of government actions. Xi has eliminated anyone who disagrees with him in any remote position of power. "Xi Jinping thought" is taught at schools, and mandatory reading for all government officials.

In either case, what I mentioned had no US involvement at all-- literally just China making a move of Russian lands while Russia is weak.

Not sure Russia is great at statecraft anymore, either-- their playbook seems pretty limited to "if you do that it means nukes" and then nothing of note happening when that thing happens. Boy who called wolf school of international relations.

 

[avz]

Not sure Russia is great at statecraft anymore, either-- their playbook seems pretty limited to "if you do that it means nukes" and then nothing of note happening when that thing happens. Boy who called wolf school of international relations.

Minsk agreements were actually great and because US knew that they were a huge victory for Russia they told their goons: No we can't have this victory for Russia so you'll have to go and fight.
The danger of our times is that signatures on paper don't have any power anymore. And this is very dangerous. US simply goes into "macho mode": Yes I am bad. What you are going to do about it?

 

[Obioban]

Minsk agreements were actually great and because US knew that they were a huge victory for Russia they told their goons: No we can't have this victory for Russia so you'll have to go and fight.
The danger of our times is that signatures on paper don't have any power anymore. And this is very dangerous. US simply goes into "macho mode": Yes I am bad. What you are going to do about it?

Truly a mystery why people would not be a fan of Russia using their military for a land grab and then calling for a cease fire via agreement. Nothing about that undermines the global order at all.

It certainly was a mistake-- made Putin think he could just do it again (current Ukraine war). Take some land, go till it gets hard, call for a cease fire. Rinse, cycle, repeat.

 

[Mity]

The US's policy as much means that China is a part of Taiwan as it means Taiwan is a part of China. Do you think China is ruled by Taiwan? Equally valid reading/the US refuses to state which is what they mean.

That's nice for talking points but it actually means nothing. If a vote ever occurred in this "One China", Taiwan would never get independence given majority rules.

None of it really matters, anymore-- China is falling apart and won't recover. Just by population demographics, by 2050 their population will be half of what it is today. Along the way, and overwhelming number people will be old and need to be cared for. If they try to counter it, by, say, forcing everyone to have 4 kids, then they'll also have all those dependents as well. Covid forced people to recognized the CCP for the brutal dictatorship it is, and that won't be unseen. Almost a third of China's GDP was in the real estate market, and it was a pyramid scheme that is now falling apart. It supplied all the income to local governments, which were already burried in debt-- and now have lose their income stream. Another ~1/3 of Chinese GDP was exports, and those are falling every quarter, with no end in sight. Things like the topic of this thread will only make it happen faster. Much of China's growth was based on foreign investment in China, and that's pulling out at unprecedented rates.

I have a Masters in Finance from the LSE; I don't need a lesson on China's real estate debt burden from you. ALL of China's debt is a fraction compared to the debt of the US gov, including state and local. Even if China increases it's debt by $20T via some massive bailout (10x current levels), it will still be below the US gov's federal debt. LOL

Do you know what amount of the $1.4 US deficit is from interest payments? $500B. And that's with ZIRP. Even without considering a move away from USD settlement by BRICS and Global South, that number is expected to grow to $1T by 2030. I don't know many twin deficit nations that remain successful over the long run. The US will implode before China does.

If China decides to try to take Taiwan by force, the US doesn't even have to get involved militarily-- China is overwhelming dependent on sea imports for food and energy. Blockade their imports and China will be starved and without energy in short order. China's navy is a green water navy, so they could do it without even being in range of China's ships (or land based anti ship missiles). And that's assuming the first island chain doesn't do it one their own pretty much all of which are strongly anti China at this point.

China doesn't have a large navy because it's goal isn't global military dominance, unlike the US. It's goal is global economic dominance. Any war with Taiwan will last at most 2 weeks. They do have a rail system and they've been diversifying into ag purchases in Southeast Asia and Russia for this very reason. Even if there is a blockade, no other country is going to go along with it. Brazil and Argentina sell soybeans and beef to China. Having their exports being blocked by the US would be disadvantageous. It will never work.

Most countries in the world count China as its largest trading partner and for good reason. They have a habit of not imposing any conditions, unlike the US. Once trade starts being settled in renminbi or some basket, it will mean the end of the US. No more borrowing at low rates.

 

[avz]

Truly a mystery why people would not be a fan of Russia using their military for a land grab and then calling for a cease fire via agreement. Nothing about that undermines the global order at all.

It certainly was a mistake-- made Putin think he could just do it again (current Ukraine war). Take some land, go till it gets hard, call for a cease fire. Rinse, cycle, repeat.

You got me. Now do the right thing and convince State Department to put US boots on the ground. If this happens I will come to the party myself and deal with the situation on my level of "statesmanship competencies".

 

[Obioban]

You got me. Now do the right thing and convince State Department to put US boots on the ground. If this happens I will come to the party myself and deal with the situation on my level of "statesmanship competencies".

The current situation is much better-- for everyone.

a) it doesn't risk a war between nuclear armed nations. Given all the nuclear saber rattling Russia has done when dealt blows by less trained, much less equipped with outdated tech army, imagine their response against a fully trained, fully equipped, air force backed, modern Army (USA). It would almost certainly result in a nuclear exchange, when it became apparent the Russians aren't a remotely comparable force. A nuclear exchange would be worse for everyone on the planet-- including the USA, Russia, and Ukraine.

b) outside of patriot, the US is getting the results they want with no expense other than getting rid of systems that are so old that the USA no longer uses them-- so the whole thing may even be saving them money, as they don't have to pay for disposal.

 

[Obioban]

That's nice for talking points but it actually means nothing. If a vote ever occurred in this "One China", Taiwan would never get independence given majority rules.

"Vote in China" 🤣

 

[Obioban]

China doesn't have a large navy because it's goal isn't global military dominance, unlike the US. It's goal is global economic dominance. Any war with Taiwan will last at most 2 weeks. They do have a rail system and they've been diversifying into ag purchases in Southeast Asia and Russia for this very reason. Even if there is a blockade, no other country is going to go along with it. Brazil and Argentina sell soybeans and beef to China. Having their exports being blocked by the US would be disadvantageous. It will never work.

Most countries in the world count China as its largest trading partner and for good reason. They have a habit of not imposing any conditions, unlike the US. Once trade starts being settled in renminbi or some basket, it will mean the end of the US. No more borrowing at low rates.

You know China has THE largest Navy, right? "China doesn't have a large navy" is a weird take.

"Any war with Taiwan will last at most 2 weeks." is also a misguided take. Russia had the 2nd largest Army in the world, with real world experience, and they can walk/drive into Ukraine. China's forces have little to no real world experience, would have to do one of the hardest military maneuvers (amphibious invasion) against a well armed island with very few areas that would even allow for a landing, and them only a couple of times a year. And the country that's being invaded can easily decimate China's economy/population/food/energy/military with a single well placed missile (see above, 3 gorges dam), of which they have many.

No other country needs to go along with the blockade. A blockade is not a sanction.

That said, I am not confident China won't try it. As the economy collapses, the CCP may see it as a valid distraction from trouble at home. While it would be the end of China as a valid economy, I wouldn't put it past the CCP to try it if they thought it would keep them in power.

 

[Obioban]

I have a Masters in Finance from the LSE; I don't need a lesson on China's real estate debt burden from you. ALL of China's debt is a fraction compared to the debt of the US gov, including state and local. Even if China increases it's debt by $20T via some massive bailout (10x current levels), it will still be below the US gov's federal debt. LOL

Do you know what amount of the $1.4 US deficit is from interest payments? $500B. And that's with ZIRP. Even without considering a move away from USD settlement by BRICS and Global South, that number is expected to grow to $1T by 2030. I don't know many twin deficit nations that remain successful over the long run. The US will implode before China does.

You know I didn't say anything about national debt, right? I said local governments are burried in debt, and have lost their revenue stream (they're not allowed to tax).

I also said China's population is collapsing-- which isn't something that can be turned around. Half the population lost over the next 25 years (just to old age and number of young people), and those that remain being of a non productive age, is something the world has never seen before and has no economic model that can begin to deal with.

"The US will implode before China does."
IMO the Chinese implosion has already begun. We'll know in 6-12 months if that's correct.

 

[Mity]

You know I didn't say anything about national debt, right? I said local governments are burried in debt, and have lost their revenue stream (they're not allowed to tax).

No, but you MUST incorporate all debt because you have to assume a bailout. I don't think you understand how US liabilities are hidden and off balance sheet. I haven't even gotten to the retirement scam in America.

The US already cannot control yields. Do you have any idea how this problem is going to exacerbated when rates rise? Where is the US going to pay for it's debts? Print even more money and cause rates to go even higher?

Before you start regurgitation nonsense from Bloomberg, make sure you understand what it means for a society to take on debt (public and private) and the many ways the US government hides it's true commitments. What you will find is a deeply flawed financial system ready to collapse. China may experience a recession but it will not experience a collapse.

And "smart" money managers have been betting on a China collapse since 2011:
youtube.com/watch?v=fGgjfSqrsAg
youtube.com/watch?v=muHaeTOFYDs
Their trades have not worked out very well.

 

[Mity]

You know China has THE largest Navy, right? "China doesn't have a large navy" is a weird take.

I meant with respect to the US.

"Any war with Taiwan will last at most 2 weeks." is also a misguided take. Russia had the 2nd largest Army in the world, with real world experience, and they can walk/drive into Ukraine. China's forces have little to no real world experience, would have to do one of the hardest military maneuvers (amphibious invasion) against a well armed island with very few areas that would even allow for a landing, and them only a couple of times a year. And the country that's being invaded can easily decimate China's economy/population/food/energy/military with a single well placed missile (see above, 3 gorges dam), of which they have many.

Russia is a great example of a paper tiger. It's industrial base has been completely hollowed out and it's just not a fair comparison to China, which actually has modern manufacturing capabilities. Do you think China doesn't have access to drones? And do you think China can't form a blockade to stop any vessels from coming through to Taiwan? Or even close its airspace? Taiwan is no match for China, militarily.

 

[Mity]

"Vote in China" 🤣

Almost as absurd as you suggesting China is a part of Taiwan. 🤣

 

[avz]

The current situation is much better-- for everyone.

a) it doesn't risk a war between nuclear armed nations. Given all the nuclear saber rattling Russia has done when dealt blows by less trained, much less equipped with outdated tech army, imagine their response against a fully trained, fully equipped, air force backed, modern Army (USA). It would almost certainly result in a nuclear exchange, when it became apparent the Russians aren't a remotely comparable force. A nuclear exchange would be worse for everyone on the planet-- including the USA, Russia, and Ukraine.

b) outside of patriot, the US is getting the results they want with no expense other than getting rid of systems that are so old that the USA no longer uses them-- so the whole thing may even be saving them money, as they don't have to pay for disposal.

So the "nuclear saber rattling" is actually working now? Not my planet - not my problem.

The irony is that these "simple" questions are tricky enough to serve as the basic test to find out if a person understands statesmanship competencies:

Is the world a safer place with Russia being a "paper tiger"?
Does a pro-US opposition in Russia(and China for this matter) makes the world a safer place with its constant subversive "mixed messages"?

 

[Obioban]

Russia is a great example of a paper tiger. It's industrial base has been completely hollowed out and it's just not a fair comparison to China, which actually has modern manufacturing capabilities. Do you think China doesn't have access to drones? And do you think China can't form a blockade to stop any vessels from coming through to Taiwan? Or even close its airspace? Taiwan is no match for China, militarily.

Russia's hollowed out industrial base (your words) made it the #2 (after the USA) weapons exporter in the world, prior to invading Ukraine. Many current Chinese designs are copies of Russian military products.

E.g. Russia's SU-33:

Vs China's J-15:

Not to mention the carriers they fly off of.

Russia:

Chinese:

Taiwan doesn't have to be a military match for China to succeed in repelling an invasion, or making it so costly to China as to be not worth it.

An amphibious landing is incredibly difficult to pull off, and China's infrastructure (specifically the 3 gorges dam) is set up such that 1 missile can ruin the lives of 1/3 of the Chinese population, the economy, the industrial sector, food production, and large portions of their military.

I think China could blockade Taiwan, but that the response would be China being blockaded-- and it would go worse for China than Taiwan.

 

[Obioban]

Almost as absurd as you suggesting China is a part of Taiwan. 🤣

Completely agreed-- both are absurd. It's pretty clear, as you point out, that China and Taiwan are, indeed, different countries. The entire situation of pretending Taiwan is not a country to appease the CCP, while in every way treating it like a country (including China-- which has tarrifs on goods from Taiwan), is absurd.

... which was actually my point all along...

 

[Obioban]

So the "nuclear saber rattling" is actually working now? Not my planet - not my problem.

The irony is that these "simple" questions are tricky enough to serve as the basic test to find out if a person understands statesmanship competencies:

Is the world a safer place with Russia being a "paper tiger"?
Does a pro-US opposition in Russia(and China for this matter) makes the world a safer place with its constant subversive "mixed messages"?

I honestly don't know what point you're trying to make.

 

[Mity]

Completely agreed-- both are absurd. It's pretty clear, as you point out, that China and Taiwan are, indeed, different countries. The entire situation of pretending Taiwan is not a country to appease the CCP, while in every way treating it like a country (including China-- which has tarrifs on goods from Taiwan), is absurd.

... which was actually my point all along...

No, that's not at all what I'm suggesting. Taiwan is a part of China, not the other away around. People in Taiwan speak Mandarin Chinese; people in China do not speak "Taiwanese". People in Taiwan eat Chinese food; there is no such thing as "Taiwanese" food. The ethnic composition of Taiwan is "Chinese", not "Taiwanese". The only thing different is political structure. We are definitely NOT in agreement.

 

[BaldiMac]

People in Taiwan speak Mandarin Chinese; people in China do not speak "Taiwanese".

People in America speak English, People in England do not speak "Americanese".

People in Taiwan eat Chinese food; there is no such thing as "Taiwanese" food.

People in America eat Chinese food too. We also eat Taiwanese food.

The ethnic composition of Taiwan is "Chinese", not "Taiwanese".

The ethnic composition of American is varied, not "Americanese".

The only thing different is political structure.

Seems like having an independent government structure is more defining of a different country that language, food, or ethnicity.

 

[Obioban]

People in America speak English, People in England do not speak "Americanese".


People in America eat Chinese food too. We also eat Taiwanese food.


The ethnic composition of American is varied, not "Americanese".


Seems like having an independent government structure is more defining of a different country that language, food, or ethnicity.

People in Mexico speak Spanish, and aren't from Spain

So many people that speak English, that aren't from England-- USA, Canada, Australia, Large swaths of Africa.

The ethnic composition of China is varied as well, even though the han Chinese like to pretend otherwise (and are having a large scale genocide to try to reduce it).

 

[Obioban]

No, that's not at all what I'm suggesting. Taiwan is a part of China, not the other away around. People in Taiwan speak Mandarin Chinese; people in China do not speak "Taiwanese". People in Taiwan eat Chinese food; there is no such thing as "Taiwanese" food. The ethnic composition of Taiwan is "Chinese", not "Taiwanese". The only thing different is political structure. We are definitely NOT in agreement.

By your logic, China should not have taken over Tibet? Different language, culture, food, ethnicity, religion...

 

[Mity]

People in America speak English, People in England do not speak "Americanese".


People in America eat Chinese food too. We also eat Taiwanese food.


The ethnic composition of American is varied, not "Americanese".


Seems like having an independent government structure is more defining of a different country that language, food, or ethnicity.

I don't think you understand the difference between nationality and ethnicity. America has many different races, so what you're saying is nonsense. But is that true for Taiwan? No... Taiwan was not a Chinese colony like Mexico and America were colonies; it was and will always be a part of China.

 

[Mity]

By your logic, China should not have taken over Tibet? Different language, culture, food, ethnicity, religion...

I agree, China should not have taken over Tibet (and not really relevant for this discussion) but Taiwan is a completely different story. It was inherently a part of China, just like Hong Kong, which was stolen by British and rightfully returned to China!