CMV: there won’t be a 12-inch MacBook at the November event

[rafsimons]

1. There are absolutely no chassi-leaks for a 12-inch model
2. The China times leak of a 12-inch MacBook with an A14X is suspect. It’s already known that the silicon macs will share a new family of chips. Even if they’ll use an A14X, they’d likely rename it for the sake of consistency.
3. Several leakers such as l0vetodream and Mark Gurman have suggested that the first model would be a 13-inch MacBook. People who’ve claimed the opposite have not had a good track-record and may simply be guessing. Take Komiya as an example.

Is there any fault in my arguments? What are the arguments to the contrary?

 

[UltimateSyn]

Could you point me to where l0vetodream said it would be a 13” model?

 

[nothingtoseehere]

it may be a guess but IMO a good one:
* no chassis leaks because could reuse the 12" Macbook from former times
* no-fan design, therefore an iPad chip would fit perfectly well (but yes they might rename it)
* fills a gap in the existing lineup (ultraportable)
* I think l0vetodream, in March, suggested an 12" Macbook ARM, see https://9to5mac.com/2020/04/20/rumo...en-touch-id-smaller-iphone-12-notch-pictured/

 

[rafsimons]

Could you point me to where l0vetodream said it would be a 13” model?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1316729942437056512

it may be a guess but IMO a good one:
* no chassis leaks because could reuse the 12" Macbook from former times
* no-fan design, therefore an iPad chip would fit perfectly well (but yes they might rename it)
* fills a gap in the existing lineup (ultraportable)
* I think l0vetodream, in March, suggested an 12" Macbook ARM, see https://9to5mac.com/2020/04/20/rumo...en-touch-id-smaller-iphone-12-notch-pictured/

I understand how Apple could eventually release a 12-inch macbook, and I also realize that they could use the existing chassi, but don't you think that there would be any leak of the chassi from a factory? By now Apple should already have started mass-production (I think?) so I'd expect some leak. It's not as if there's already a 12-inch mac for sale, so a reappearance would be notable, even if the chassi existed a little over a year ago.

 

[Acidsplat]

if you're saying there should have been chassis leaks already, are you saying you think there won't be an apple silicon Mac available at all?

 

[Erehy Dobon]

It's highly implausible that Apple will return to a five-year-old notebook chassis design particularly one that is tied to the now-abandoned butterfly keyboard.

More importantly Apple has vigorously pushed the iPad Pro, increasing performance and peripheral support (keyboards, pointing devices, external storage, etc.). I just don't see Apple returning to the 12" MacBook concept.

 

[poorcody]

Remember a 13" might be a 12" with reduced bevels (ala 15"->16" MBP).

 

[ChromeCloud]

1. There are absolutely no chassi-leaks for a 12-inch model
2. The China times leak of a 12-inch MacBook with an A14X is suspect. It’s already known that the silicon macs will share a new family of chips. Even if they’ll use an A14X, they’d likely rename it for the sake of consistency.
3. Several leakers such as l0vetodream and Mark Gurman have suggested that the first model would be a 13-inch MacBook. People who’ve claimed the opposite have not had a good track-record and may simply be guessing. Take Komiya as an example.

Is there any fault in my arguments? What are the arguments to the contrary?

1. The schematics of the iPad Air 4 by comparison were leaked 16 days before the event... it's not "too late" right now for 12-inch MacBook schematics considering the event will likely be aired on November 17th.
2. The China times leak is not suspect because of the way they named the new SOC. They probably just don't know yet how Apple is going to call the new family of SOC. They have to call them in a way or another, so they probably chose the name A14X because it best represents the design on which the new family of SOC will be based on. Also China Times accuracy so far has been pretty much excellent.
3. lovetodream has been saying for a while that a 12-inch macbook "arm" is coming this year. I don't think Apple is planning another event in December...

 

[Falhófnir]

As far as I can tell the only respectable rumours for the 17th are a 24" iMac and 13" MacBook (pro). Everything else is mere speculation. The 12" MacBook rumours, such as they are, seem to be based on the long-standing idea that it's the model that 'makes the most sense' to start with. If they're transitioning the whole lineup quickly it isn't, because it's a niche product. They need the macs that sell in volume, and which are least likely to be running specialist software - the 13" MacBook Air, cheaper variant of the 13" MacBook Pro, the smaller (cheaper) iMac and Mac mini would be the computers to get out first if you want to get the transition off to a strong start.

 

[smoking monkey]

My predictions.
November 2020: Absolutely no 12 inch for mine.
Most likely 13 with no body change and just a new processor. Nothing else will change... unfortunately.
Next Year: New body with new screens for all lap tops including the new 14 inch size. I don't know about time frames for those releases as I'm not up on Screen manufacturing for Mini LED or whatever it's called. But whenever they can get good yields for those screens is when they'll release them!

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Remember a 13" might be a 12" with reduced bevels (ala 15"->16" MBP).

It's the other way around for various iPhone and iPad models over the years. More effective screen space in a smaller device due to narrower bezels.

However for MacBooks (and likewise iMacs) the screen dimension number is based on the usable screen size, not the physical dimensions of the top panel (which includes the bezel).

 

[ChromeCloud]

My guess is that at the November 17th event we will see:

12-inch MacBook with new design, 8-core "A14X" (fanless) starting from 1599$
13-inch MacBook Pro with old design, 8-core and 12-core "A14Z" options starting from 1799$
23-inch iMac with new design, 8-core and 12-core "A14Z" options starting from 1799$

The MacBook Air will stay Intel for this year, still available for those who don't care that much about performance and want to spend the least money for a good all-round laptop.

Rationale:

12-inch MacBook will showcase what is possible thanks to Apple Silicon in a premium laptop that is super thin and super light but is considerably faster than the current MacBook Pro 13".

13-inch MacBook Pro has to be updated to Apple Silicon because otherwise the "Pro" choice will be slower than the 12-inch MacBook at a higher price, which makes no sense.
So Apple will update the 13-inch to showcase how powerful of a chip they can make (12-core A14Z) that runs cool and quiet in the same enclosure as the old machines.

23-inch iMac is to offer a choice to early adopters that want the latest thing, with a fresh iPad Pro like design, but need a desktop machine instead of a laptop.

The MacBook Air will stay Intel because it's the "default" choice for the casual user. They will keep selling tons of them even if they don't get updated to Apple Silicon until next year.

 

[Falhófnir]

It's the other way around for various iPhone and iPad models over the years. More effective screen space in a smaller device due to narrower bezels.

However for MacBooks (and likewise iMacs) the screen dimension number is based on the usable screen size, not the physical dimensions of the top panel (which includes the bezel).

I don't think they can shrink the 12" any further, it's size is pretty much dictated by the full size keyboard, which they won't budge on. Growing the screen to 12.5" or so would be desirable as the bezels are chunkier than the 2016 era Pros or new MacBook Air, let alone the 16".

 

[Erehy Dobon]

Absolutely.

The defunct 12" MacBook could become the 13" ASi MacBook if Apple were able to shrink the screen bezels. They would still retain the full-size keyboard.

I loved the size and weight of the 12" MacBook 2017, was disappointed with its performance (and I had whatever was the top CPU configuration) and despised the keyboard.

 

[rafsimons]

if you're saying there should have been chassis leaks already, are you saying you think there won't be an apple silicon Mac available at all?

No, just that the new apple silicon mac will be in an already existing chassi such as the macbook air or pro 13.

1. The schematics of the iPad Air 4 by comparison were leaked 16 days before the event... it's not "too late" right now for 12-inch MacBook schematics considering the event will likely be aired on November 17th.
2. The China times leak is not suspect because of the way they named the new SOC. They probably just don't know yet how Apple is going to call the new family of SOC. They have to call them in a way or another, so they probably chose the name A14X because it best represents the design on which the new family of SOC will be based on. Also China Times accuracy so far has been pretty much excellent.
3. lovetodream has been saying for a while that a 12-inch macbook "arm" is coming this year. I don't think Apple is planning another event in December...

1. Good point.
2. I mean it's possible that it's a placeholder, but why then call the 23-inch mac-chip "A14T"? Seems oddly specific.
3. You're right that he's mentioned it before, and I'm not suggesting that a 12-inch macbook won't ever come out, but he stated very recently (October 15) that they'll release a 13-inch model. See post #4 in this thread for the tweet.


I guess the best case scenario is that apple announces a refreshed ARM-macbook pro 13, and a macbook 12-inch. Alternatively they might have increased the screen size of the 12 inch to 13 but I'm doubtful.

As far as I can tell the only respectable rumours for the 17th are a 24" iMac and 13" MacBook (pro). Everything else is mere speculation. The 12" MacBook rumours, such as they are, seem to be based on the long-standing idea that it's the model that 'makes the most sense' to start with. If they're transitioning the whole lineup quickly it isn't, because it's a niche product. They need the macs that sell in volume, and which are least likely to be running specialist software - the 13" MacBook Air, cheaper variant of the 13" MacBook Pro, the smaller (cheaper) iMac and Mac mini would be the computers to get out first if you want to get the transition off to a strong start.

This is the exact same impression I've gotten in regarding the 12-inch macbook rumors. Having said that, there has been some early rumours of a 12-inch model from earlier this year. Most as of late seem to be pointing to a 13-inch model. In regards to the macbook air vs macbook pro, both Jon Prosser and l0vetodream (see post #4 in this thread) have fairly recently said that it'll be a macbook pro 13 coming out in November.

 

[richinaus]

I will be stunned if they launch AS as a 12” first. What’s the point? Not much different to the iPad Pro 12” I am typing this on.

They will launch with their most popular size in a brand new chassis design - 13 / 14” MacBook Pro.
I have never know Apple in recent times launch without a fanfare and this is the perfect machine to show speed, in house CPU / GPU / lack of fan noise, cool etc. in a thin light enclosure.

Basically everything a modern laptop should be and everything Apple have always strived for in the last 10 years.
The perfect consumer computer.

Always happy to be wrong, but I hope I am right....

 

[jazz1]

My predictions.
November 2020: Absolutely no 12 inch for mine.
Most likely 13 with no body change and just a new processor. Nothing else will change... unfortunately.
Next Year: New body with new screens for all lap tops including the new 14 inch size. I don't know about time frames for those releases as I'm not up on Screen manufacturing for Mini LED or whatever it's called. But whenever they can get good yields for those screens is when they'll release them!

I do love the form factor of my dying 12” Macbook. I place my 12.9” inch iPad Pro on it for a dimensions comparison (closed Macbook) and I’m really liking the Macbook. It even fits in most of my bags that I purchased for the iPad Pro 12.9” 2018! Of course if push comes to shove I could go for a 13”, but at that point I’d rather see a 14” Macbook. If only a 13” Macbook in the old body arrives, with nothing but the new ARM CPU I think Apple is starting with a “whimper” not a “bang”.

 

[richinaus]

I do love the form factor of my dying 12” Macbook. I place my 12.9” inch iPad Pro on it for a dimensions comparison (closed Macbook) and I’m really liking the Macbook. It even fits in most of my bags that I purchased for the iPad Pro 12.9” 2018! Of course if push comes to shove I could go for a 13”, but at that point I’d rather see a 14” Macbook. If only a 13” Macbook in the old body arrives, with nothing but the new ARM CPU I think Apple is starting with a “whimper” not a “bang”.

If they do start with the whimper and lead with a cautious approach they wont be getting my money.

I want them to show the future, not the past - as they did with the iphone, ipad and apple watch. Even though this is a development of an existing product, they have all the opportunity to really go for it, and I think they will.

 

[Mr. Dee]

What I believe is going to happen is a modified revision of the chassis. Pretty much PowerBook G4 to the first gen MacBook Pro in 2006. What might be different is the functionality of the device. Outside of Apple Silicon, there will be the need for dramatic improvements to makes it an enticing reason to switch even though you will be leaving behind compatibility.

Benefits in the first gen MacBook Pro:

- Magsafe - protects your laptop from accidental trips
- iSight camera - conference call friends and family

These are just two outward improvements the new MacBook Pro introduced in 2006. The internal changes such as the processor, made it hard bargain to sell, but I liked how Steve described it, the soul of a Mac is OS X. Once users saw that its running the same exact Tiger that has been running on PowerPC Macs since April of 2005, it might make it much easier to take the risk.

So what does this mean for the Apple Silicon based MacBook Pro and iMac?

For the iMac, I bet its gonna look the same as todays 21 inch Intel iMac. Same ports, same chassis, same bezels. What might change and this will also apply to the MacBook Pro too:

- Face ID on both
- Support for multi touch

Craig will of course deny they are trying to turn the Mac into an iPad, but he's going sell it by saying, many first time Mac users having been using iOS from more than a decade. They are accustomed to the familiar ways of interacting with their devices.

With the move to Apple Silicon we are also bringing millions of iOS apps to the Mac and we believe multitouch should remain a core part of how these apps continue to work on the Mac. But we also know that you want the option to still use apps that still work best with a mouse and keyboard. They will throw in tidbits like, I am sure if you have been an iPad user who owns a Mac long enough, there are moments you accidentally touch your Macs screen, now you can.

They will then show improvements to macOS Big Sur not made available in public builds such as a transparent optimised touch mode. When you touch your Macs screen, it immediately optimises the interface: Finder, Settings and apps that enable this functionality with the soon to be released SDK update to work just as good on an app on a iPad.

So, thats whats gonna happen beyond that?

Whats gonna happen is, more products will be introduced to the Apple Silicon line, Mac Mini by March, 32 inch iMac at WWDC '21 or summer '21. What we will then see is the first actual revised chassis for both MacBook Pro and iMac in the fall.

I suspect because of the thermal benefits of Apple silicon, they are gonna use the tapered design of the MacBook Air for the next generation 16 inch and 14 inch MacBook Pro. If they they don't use this design, expect a design that looks like the new iPads and iPhones, flat, sharp rounded edges - just really thin.

The iMac I believe is gonna look like the XDR displays, its such a given. The only difference is, that $999 stand is not removable. Internal improvements include Apples homegrown graphics and I suspect they are gonna go for one of two likely base RAM choices: 12 GBs or 16 GBs.

They know that extra RAM is gonna come in handy for those Intel apps running on Rosetta 2. On top of running macOS and other native apps, multi-tasking, it would be cheap for them to stick with 8 GBs in 2021.

 

[richinaus]

What I believe is going to happen is a modified revision of the chassis. Pretty much PowerBook G4 to the first gen MacBook Pro in 2006. What might be different is the functionality of the device. Outside of Apple Silicon, there will be the need for dramatic improvements to makes it an enticing reason to switch even though you will be leaving behind compatibility.

Benefits in the first gen MacBook Pro:

- Magsafe - protects your laptop from accidental trips
- iSight camera - conference call friends and family

These are just two outward improvements the new MacBook Pro introduced in 2006. The internal changes such as the processor, made it hard bargain to sell, but I liked how Steve described it, the soul of a Mac is OS X. Once users saw that its running the same exact Tiger that has been running on PowerPC Macs since April of 2005, it might make it much easier to take the risk.

So what does this mean for the Apple Silicon based MacBook Pro and iMac?

For the iMac, I bet its gonna look the same as todays 21 inch Intel iMac. Same ports, same chassis, same bezels. What might change and this will also apply to the MacBook Pro too:

- Face ID on both
- Support for multi touch

Craig will of course deny they are trying to turn the Mac into an iPad, but he's going sell it by saying, many first time Mac users having been using iOS from more than a decade. They are accustomed to the familiar ways of interacting with their devices.

With the move to Apple Silicon we are also bringing millions of iOS apps to the Mac and we believe multitouch should remain a core part of how these apps continue to work on the Mac. But we also know that you want the option to still use apps that still work best with a mouse and keyboard. They will throw in tidbits like, I am sure if you have been an iPad user who owns a Mac long enough, there are moments you accidentally touch your Macs screen, now you can.

They will then show improvements to macOS Big Sur not made available in public builds such as a transparent optimised touch mode. When you touch your Macs screen, it immediately optimises the interface: Finder, Settings and apps that enable this functionality with the soon to be released SDK update to work just as good on an app on a iPad.

So, thats whats gonna happen beyond that?

Whats gonna happen is, more products will be introduced to the Apple Silicon line, Mac Mini by March, 32 inch iMac at WWDC '21 or summer '21. What we will then see is the first actual revised chassis for both MacBook Pro and iMac in the fall.

I suspect because of the thermal benefits of Apple silicon, they are gonna use the tapered design of the MacBook Air for the next generation 16 inch and 14 inch MacBook Pro. If they they don't use this design, expect a design that looks like the new iPads and iPhones, flat, sharp rounded edges - just really thin.

The iMac I believe is gonna look like the XDR displays, its such a given. The only difference is, that $999 stand is not removable. Internal improvements include Apples homegrown graphics and I suspect they are gonna go for one of two likely base RAM choices: 12 GBs or 16 GBs.

They know that extra RAM is gonna come in handy for those Intel apps running on Rosetta 2. On top of running macOS and other native apps, multi-tasking, it would be cheap for them to stick with 8 GBs in 2021.

So what you are saying is they stay with the same chassis for an imac that everyone ridicules now because of the bezels and a MacBook Pro that is the same since 2016, that looks totally dated, to show off their first CPU + GPU for a computer in their history? And this is from the company that prides itself on hardware and software integration.....

 

[calstanford]

Then there won’t be a f buy from me. Simple as that, Apple.

Might be time for Tim Cook to figure out how to treat long term fans and customers

 

[calstanford]

My predictions.
November 2020: Absolutely no 12 inch for mine.
Most likely 13 with no body change and just a new processor. Nothing else will change... unfortunately.
Next Year: New body with new screens for all lap tops including the new 14 inch size. I don't know about time frames for those releases as I'm not up on Screen manufacturing for Mini LED or whatever it's called. But whenever they can get good yields for those screens is when they'll release them!

Who’s gonna buy that. Seriously now. The most boring never-really-changed machine with an outdated screen/bezel ratio and nothing new in it besides a chip that will initially be slower (until all software is native).

 

[calstanford]

I will be stunned if they launch AS as a 12” first. What’s the point? Not much different to the iPad Pro 12” I am typing this on.

They will launch with their most popular size in a brand new chassis design - 13 / 14” MacBook Pro.
I have never know Apple in recent times launch without a fanfare and this is the perfect machine to show speed, in house CPU / GPU / lack of fan noise, cool etc. in a thin light enclosure.

Basically everything a modern laptop should be and everything Apple have always strived for in the last 10 years.
The perfect consumer computer.

Always happy to be wrong, but I hope I am right....

Logic? a 13” MBP is “not much different” from your 12.9” iPad Pro either by that logic

 

[richinaus]

Logic? a 13” MBP is “not much different” from your 12.9” iPad Pro either by that logic

I meant in terms of fanless silent design. Not talking about the OS.

 

[leman]

My bet is on an entry-level Mac laptop. Whether they call it MacBook, MacBook Air or whatever is a secondary question.

Why do I think so: it would make sense for Apple to start with “simpler”, more conservative A14 variants. An A14X with 4 high performance CPU cores and 7-8 GPU cores would have good yields, could be reused across iPads and Macs, and it wouldn’t need any novel approach to main board design. But it’s also not really a CPU you want to use in a higher-end 13” MBP, because as @calstanford mentions, a lot of initial software will need to run under Rosetta2. For an entry-level, cheaper Mac laptop though it’s going to be amazing. A 1200$ Apple ultraportable with excellent battery life and performance rivaling more expensive Tiger Lake laptops is going to be an absolute hit.