YOU. ARE. WRONG.
[...]
The decline in valuations (and this goes for stocks as well) was because of the forward guidance of less interest rate cuts in 2025, plus the Fed saying inflation is stickier and even forecasting inflation to move up next year.
You, once again, say I'm wrong in the strongest of terms and then agree with me:
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Reminder: Bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation.
I said bitcoin fell because of changed expectations about inflation and you said I'm wrong then said it was because of changed expectations about inflation.
To anyone else reading this thread:
Please, dear readers, study what a hedge is. You will find that something is only a hedge if it acts like one, not just because someone called it one. If someone tells you "this will protect you against some event" and then it loses value when that event occurs, it is not an effective hedge.
If they then tell you that you can't look at how it behaved at the very moment the information you're hedging against is made public when the causal relationship is most clear, but rather you have to look at it over long periods of time when it is confounded by many variable and then discount the fact that it's volatile-- that, dear reader, is called "smoke and mirrors".
At the very moment that the world learned that the Federal Reserve believed inflation would remain higher than previously expected, Bitcoin lost value. If Bitcoin were useful as a hedge, then people should have flocked to it for safety when inflation expectations rose-- but instead they fled from it. As clearly demonstrated by the immediate response in the price of Bitcoin on the introduction to the market of new information about inflation, Bitcoin is not an effective hedge against inflation.
It is simply volatile and speculative which, like other random processes such as balls bouncing on wheels, shuffled cards, and rolling cubes, make it a signal people wish to gamble upon. Recently it has been worth more than it was some time ago and thus some people believe it is infused with a magical essence. If you refer to a time when it was lower than it had previously been they will tell you to ignore that time, it doesn't count.
Or, perhaps you prefer to listen to the bold, caps, ad hominem point of view. After all, bold, caps and ad hominem attacks are the three leading indicators of a well reasoned argument.
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