Do the Naysayers actually think iPad will Fail?

[thejakill]

To play Devil's Advocate - don't you think the makers or HD-DVD thought the same thing? Beta? And countless other formats/devices?

I personally know lots of people that bought palm pilots back in their heyday because they were cool and they thought they'd use them only to not and after the had their fun with them - a few months later they were on the shelf.

Not saying the iPad will not be used. I'm just saying - time will tell. But statements like "it's just not possible" well - let's just say - ANYTHING is possible.

Not in this case.

The only way ipad could fail is if something out there were better. Even with the cascade of smartphones out there trying to take it down, the iPhone is selling like hotcakes. There's literally nothing in the ipad's category right now.

 

[thejakill]

I, too bought a palm pilot and thought it was cool. I got bored with it becuase it couldn't do very much. Bwhen I got the first iPhone, I realized what a joke the palm pilot was.

I don't think this will be an issue for ipad. It does plenty.

 

[Bytor65]

There's no way on earth it will be a failure. It's just not possible.

Well I wouldn't go that far. People really can't predict how large groups of others will spend their disposable income. Failure is always an option.

Though, I also am calling a success here. Looking at recent history, I think one device points to a iPad success more than anything else: Kindle.

Complainers go on endless about features missing from the iPad compared to full fledged computers. Yet one trick pony Kindle has sold millions. An iPad IMO is that and SO MUCH MORE.

An iPad is also near direct match for Kindle in Dx in form factor and price and again the iPad is so much more.

Who knows how many e-Reader purchases are on hold right now, changed to an iPad. Millions of e-readers were expected to sell this year.


I am one of those who switched. I don't come from an Apple background I never owned an Apple anything. I was shopping for an e-Reader when the iPad was announced. I was expecting an $899 iPad so it didn't get my attention until the price was announced. Once it was $500 I checked it out and it was bye-bye ereader, hello iPad.

I expect there are many others switching ereader gears and that is just one potential sizable market.

I can also see tons to iPhone/Touch users who will know exactly why they would want a larger screen version.

It really looks like Apple will do it again. Bringing success to the tablet market that has been moribund for years. I think that success will largely be because Apple knows what to leave out so they can get the size/weight/quality/cost ratios in line.

 

[mrsir2009]

Not in this case.

The only way ipad could fail is if something out there were better. Even with the cascade of smartphones out there trying to take it down, the iPhone is selling like hotcakes. There's literally nothing in the ipad's category right now.

Yes, but it might get in trouble down the track when competition comes into the picture...

 

[thejakill]

Well I wouldn't go that far. People really can't predict how large groups of others will spend their disposable income. Failure is always an option.

nope. not with an installed base of iphone OS users of something like 70,000,000 customers (most of whom are satisfied or outright fervent fanboys).

it's not like some other company is coming out with this thing: it's apple. it's what people have been waiting years for. it's all anyone is talking about in the tech media lately. even all the haters are just free advertising for it. this is going to be a hit without a doubt.

 

[thejakill]

Yes, but it might get in trouble down the track when competition comes into the picture...

but why would anyone bother trying to compete with it? it's so terrible, what with not having flash or a camera or a solar charger or blah blah blah.

 

[samcraig]

nope. not with an installed base of iphone OS users of something like 70,000,000 customers (most of whom are satisfied or outright fervent fanboys).

it's not like some other company is coming out with this thing: it's apple. it's what people have been waiting years for. it's all anyone is talking about in the tech media lately. even all the haters are just free advertising for it. this is going to be a hit without a doubt.

You're either ignorant, naive, young or any combination of the three based on your posts in this thread.

If Apple is so beloved then why don't they have greater market share for their desktop systems. They're Apple (you're argument).

People have and like choices. I'm not saying the iPad won't succeed. But it is NOT guaranteed.

and Bytor65, "Yet one trick pony Kindle has sold millions. An iPad IMO is that and SO MUCH MORE. "

The problem I have with that statement is that there are millions of people who don't want to have the extra bells or whistles. That don't want to spend $499. That would prefer to JUST have an eReader. Who prefer the smaller footprint (size of the device) or eInk. I'm not arguing which is better or has more bang for the buck. I'm stating that there are plenty of people who are very satisfied with their Kindle as only being a "one trick pony"

So a comparison between the devices isn't appropriate.

It would be like comparing a bike to a car. Both are transportation devices - but the car can do so much more. But you know what - people like riding bikes. And/or they have no use for a car. Same comparison for bike vs moped.

There are millions of people with regular flip phones (non smart-phones) because they don't want or need the bells and whistles. Based on the statement you made (and others have made it to) there's no reason why anyone would buy or want one of those phones when they could have an iPhone. Yet not everyone has an iPhone. Why do you think that is?

 

[Bytor65]

If Apple is so beloved then why don't they have greater market share for their desktop systems. They're Apple (you're argument).

From what I read, doesn't Apple pretty much own the segment iMac plays in? Don't that have something like 90% of the >$1000 PC market??

http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Apple-has-91-of-market-for-1000-PCs-says-NPD/1248313624

You think 90% is insufficient?

So a comparison between the devices isn't appropriate.

It would be like comparing a bike to a car. Both are transportation devices - but the car can do so much more. But you know what - people like riding bikes. And/or they have no use for a car. Same comparison for bike vs moped.

That is kind of ironic coming from someone who spends every day pointing out iPad shortcoming compared to a netbook. You can't see your comparison is even less appropriate?

Kindled Dx vs iPad is much more sensible comparison than iPad vs netbook.

Both the Kindle Dx and iPad share form factors, screen size, both ideally suited for reading, and both are NOT computer replacements, but complementary devices.

Net book has nothing in common and is intended as a full computer replacement.

You have become fairly blind to rational thought if you think a Kindle vs iPad comparison is unreasonable, but iPad to netbook is.

 

[samcraig]

From what I read, doesn't Apple pretty much own the segment iMac plays in? Don't that have something like 90% of the >$1000 PC market??

http://www.betanews.com/joewilcox/article/Apple-has-91-of-market-for-1000-PCs-says-NPD/1248313624

You think 90% is insufficient?



That is kind of ironic coming from someone who spends every day pointing out iPad shortcoming compared to a netbook. You can't see your comparison is even less appropriate?

Kindled Dx vs iPad is much more sensible comparison than iPad vs netbook.

Both the Kindle Dx and iPad share form factors, screen size, both ideally suited for reading, and both are NOT computer replacements, but complementary devices.

Net book has nothing in common and is intended as a full computer replacement.

You have become fairly blind to rational thought if you think a Kindle vs iPad comparison is unreasonable, but iPad to netbook is.

To your first point. That's like saying that Lotus has 90 percent of the > $100,000 automobile industry. Apple products are priced higher than MOST consumer PCs - so of course they're going to dominate. Do they have 90 percent of the entire market? no. Not even close. Not a valid argument in my book.

Your analogies are as faulty as mine. I'm not comparing the DX. Why? Because people who just want a dedicated eReader are flocking to the Kindle 2, NOT the DX. So the DX isn't the competition just because it happens to have the same screen size.

I don't think any comparison is truly fair because they do different things. My arguments (and I don't think a netbook is BETTER than an iPad or vice versa) is that people have different needs and neither is better or worse because it depends on what the end user wants and needs. And I am GLAD that both exist to cover those needs.

I'm not blind. I just find it ridiculous all this back and forth trying to "prove" one is better than the other. Who cares. If a netbook is what you need, get one. If an iPad is what you need, get one. There's no need to try and "win" or try to convince others you have a better device. It's actually immature.

 

[Bytor65]

Your analogies are as faulty as mine. I'm not comparing the DX. Why? Because people who just want a dedicated eReader are flocking to the Kindle 2, NOT the DX. So the DX isn't the competition just because it happens to have the same screen size.

What analogies? you are the one who brought in cars and bicycles. I was doing my best to ignore or analogies and just focus on how ridiculous was for you to be arguing you can't compare a Kindle to an iPad, while you are in 10 other threads comparing an iPad to a netbook.

The Kindle Dx comparison is more than just screen size. It is overall form factor/price and mission.

There will be millions of E-Readers sold this year. iPad will definitely claim some of that market and isn't only from the more expensive Kindle Dx. I am one of those converting my E-Reader purchase to a iPad and I was looking at cheaper e-Readers, but I will pay more for a color e-Reader with a lot of additional capability, but first and foremost I want an e-Reader. I have heard of others ebaying Kindles while waiting for iPad.

Neither of us can accurately predict how much of that market iPad will steal, but it will steal some. This is where fact ends.

Where my predictions begin.

Show a Kindle/ereader user Magazines/PDFs/Comics in full beautiful color and blazing response and slick glide motion control, and you will have a convert most of the time. Next to the iPad showing color materials the Kindle will look like something 20 years out of date.

The iPad will cut a swath through the ereader market, serious competitors will move to color and e-ink will be all but dead in 2-3 years.

I don't think any comparison is truly fair because they do different things.

Then why keep comparing to a netbook? I WAS looking for an ereader, so the comparison was perfect for me and iPad wins. To me iPad is the best ereader on the market that I have seen. Everything else it does is largely a bonus.

I'm not blind. I just find it ridiculous all this back and forth trying to "prove" one is better than the other.

You are one of the most vocal participants that keeps back and forth going.

 

[samcraig]

What analogies? you are the one who brought in cars and bicycles. I was doing my best to ignore or analogies and just focus on how ridiculous was for you to be arguing you can't compare a Kindle to an iPad, while you are in 10 other threads comparing an iPad to a netbook.

The Kindle Dx comparison is more than just screen size. It is overall form factor/price and mission.

There will be millions of E-Readers sold this year. iPad will definitely claim some of that market and isn't only from the more expensive Kindle Dx. I am one of those converting my E-Reader purchase to a iPad and I was looking at cheaper e-Readers, but I will pay more for a color e-Reader with a lot of additional capability, but first and foremost I want an e-Reader. I have heard of others ebaying Kindles while waiting for iPad.

Neither of us can accurately predict how much of that market iPad will steal, but it will steal some. This is where fact ends.

Where my predictions begins.

Show a Kindle/ereader user Magazines/PDFs/Comics in full beautiful color and blazing response and slick glide motion control, and you will have a convert most of the time.

The iPad will cut a swath through the ereader market, serious competitors will move to color and e-ink will be all but dead in 2-3 years.



Then why keep comparing to a netbook?



You are one of the most vocal participants that keeps back and forth going.

I disagree. I'm not the one, per se, comparing the iPad to anything. At least not initiating the discussion because I don't think they are comparable. BUT - of others are going to COMPARE - then what I've done is make comments in rebuttal. It's called conversation.

The Kindle, iPad and Netbooks all have a big enough market that none of them will fail or die off anytime soon. And they are very different devices with only SOME overlap.

eInk isn't going anywhere either - especially with progress towards color eInk. If you mean B&W eInk - I still think your timeline is premature.

Do you think the iPad will kill the netbook? The Kindle? or perhaps JUST perhaps - will it find its own place in the market? Of course some sales of Kindles will go to the iPad - and same for notebook. But you can only really say it's "stealing" because both exist now while the iPad doesn't. If the iPad came out first, and then the Kindle - you'd be able to argue that Amazon was going to "steal" those people who might have bought an iPad because they want to save money and have a dedicate eReader.

Again - I am not advocating or arguing for or against any of the devices. I think there's a place for all of them without the need for anyone to act as if the device THEY'VE chosen is better than anyone else's. We all have different needs.

 

[Bytor65]

eInk isn't going anywhere either - especially with progress towards color eInk. If you mean B&W eInk - I still think your timeline is premature.

Again in prediction mode. I think e-Ink the technology is dead. Color or B&W. It's color implementation will look like ass, and be slower than molasses. It will be buried by Miraol tech for those who must have that outdoor battery life, but even Mirasol will likely remain a niche.

Do you think the iPad will kill the netbook? The Kindle? or perhaps JUST perhaps - will it find its own place in the market?

As stated I think netbook and iPads are a faulty comparison I don't make (but you keep bringing up).

Kindle: I think iPad could do massive damage to kindle HW sales. Show a couple of:
"I am a Kindle, I am an iPad" commercials and Kindle sales will tank. Seriously just think about how that comparison looks in visuals. Kindle display looks absolutely pre-historic compared to iPads.

But you can only really say it's "stealing" because both exist now while the iPad doesn't.

It will be obviously stealing if Kindle sales charts tank after iPad.

Again - I am not advocating or arguing for or against any of the devices. I think there's a place for all of them without the need for anyone to act as if the device THEY'VE chosen is better than anyone else's. We all have different needs.

IMO how much iPad devastates the ereader market depends on how heavily Apple markets against. If it doesn't it will go into slow decline. If Apple goes heavy with "I am Kindle and I am an iPad" commercials, I could see devastation.

But I can't predict where Apple will go with it's marketing. I know I would definitely do the "I am a Kindle, I am an iPad" thing because the comparison is just devastating and most people considering an ereader would question it.

We will know more when we see Apples marketing.

 

[mrsir2009]

but why would anyone bother trying to compete with it? it's so terrible, what with not having flash or a camera or a solar charger or blah blah blah.

Lol are you being sarcastic? If your not the iPad isn't that bad is it, and besides, the worse a products is the easier it is to compete with

 

[MacVDS]

From the looks of things the iPad supporters and detractors are running out of steam on the pros and cons of this new device and there's no new info left I haven't seen a million times over.

Now what am I going to read for the next month before launch?

 

[master-ceo]

Now I understand why people do smash videos at hardware launches.

 

[qtx43]

Now what am I going to read for the next month before launch?

If you want more drama, there's always soap operas. If you want real life drama, there's politics. If you just like watching people get mad and call each names, there's professional wrestling. Or you could start here.

 

[thejakill]

You're either ignorant, naive, young or any combination of the three based on your posts in this thread.

i'm not going to get into a name-calling discussion with you. You shouldn't say things online you wouldn't have the balls to say to someone's face.

fail? zune is a failure. the original motorola itunes phone was a failure. the g4 cube was a failure. the ipod hi-fi was a failure.

ipad won't be. take that to the bank. i'll check back in april and accept your apology.

 

[thejakill]

Lol are you being sarcastic? If your not the iPad isn't that bad is it, and besides, the worse a products is the easier it is to compete with

yes i was joking. none of the things the haters complain about will matter as soon as the masses get an ipad in their hands.

can't wait to see the march of the clones later this year.

 

[marksman]

iPad will fail to sell 100 million units in its first 3 years.

Mod note: There is no need for personal attacks/flamebaiting

 

[Inkygirl]

Yes, the iPad could fail...but I hope it doesn't.

Here's why I'm excited about the iPad.

And here's my look at iPad bashing compared to iPod bashing back in 2001, including some quotes from the MacRumors forum about the iPod:

‘I still can’t believe this! All this hype for something so ridiculous! Who cares about an MP3 player? I want something new! I want them to think differently! Why oh why would they do this?! It’s so wrong! It’s so stupid!”

and

All that hype for an MP3 player? Break-thru digital device? The Reality Distiortion Field™ is starting to warp Steve’s mind if he thinks for
one second that this thing is gonna take off.

Debbie

 

[samcraig]

i'm not going to get into a name-calling discussion with you. You shouldn't say things online you wouldn't have the balls to say to someone's face.

fail? zune is a failure. the original motorola itunes phone was a failure. the g4 cube was a failure. the ipod hi-fi was a failure.

ipad won't be. take that to the bank. i'll check back in april and accept your apology.

You'll be waiting a very very very long time to hear any apology from me and I've said nothing that warrants one to you or anyone else.

And I make it a point to never post anything I wouldn't say to someone's face. So your first comment is negated right there.

Enjoy your iPad

 

[MacVDS]

If you want more drama, there's always soap operas. If you want real life drama, there's politics. If you just like watching people get mad and call each names, there's professional wrestling. Or you could start here.

Nevermind, it's back on. Guess everthing was just on recharge.

 

[Brazzan]

Back to your original comment about defining success, I do think that all of the "Fail" type commenters have pointedly refrained from a realistic measure of success. What would be successful first-year sales? An iPod like 400,000? An iPhone like 6 million? I would think closer to the iPod since like the iPod, and unlike the iPhone, the iPad is for the most part trying to establish a new market.

I would think 1-2 million would be a sales success.

You have it right here BaldiMac. Before we decide whether the iPad will succeed or fail, we have to say what we mean by those words.

For the first year, I'd say:
< 400K: clear fail - that's worse than the Apple TV IIRC
400K-1M: a setback, but not a catastrophe. Maybe iPad 2 can turn it around.
1-3M: reasonably successful
4-6M: hit
> 6M: triumph

My guessed Y1 sales would be 500K-1.5M, but I'm terrible at making predictions of this sort of thing, so don't put any money on it!

 

[Brazzan]

You have it right here BaldiMac. Before we decide whether the iPad will succeed or fail, we have to say what we mean by those words.

For the first year, I'd say:
< 400K: clear fail - that's worse than the Apple TV IIRC
400K-1M: a setback, but not a catastrophe. Maybe iPad 2 can turn it around.
1-3M: reasonably successful
4-6M: hit
> 6M: triumph

My guessed Y1 sales would be 500K-1.5M, but I'm terrible at making predictions of this sort of thing, so don't put any money on it!

Just thought I'd revisit these numbers. We now have official sales of 500K in the first week and delays in shipments to the rest of the world as a result. In commercial terms, it's looking pretty promising for Apple right now and it seems my skepticism was unfounded.

 

[hamlinspahn]

Fail that ship has sailed

If they stopped making them tomorrow selling over 500000 of any device by any manufacturer would never be seen as a failure. And just for setting the facts straight the iPad OS is a version of OS X. And before all of you go Blah Blah Blah it isn't look it up first.